RAND Project AIR FORCE Annual Report 2007 - RAND Corporation

Space may be the military high ground of the 21st century, but itis one with minimal fortifications and lookouts. The “troops”encamped there—satellites—are of great value for both theirposition and capabilities, but they may be vulnerable. Even as suchspace assets as the Global Positioning System (GPS) and satellite communicationsare making U.S. military forces in Iraq and Afghanistanmore precise and responsive, some worry that the United States may beleaving itself open to a possible “space Pearl Harbor.”Protecting space systems is a formidable challenge, and such events asChina’s antisatellite weapon test in January 2007 make the possibility ofsuccessful attack seem all too real. But as DoD’s executive agent for space,the Air Force is responsible for making sure that does not happen.Adding fortifications—in the form of defensive capabilities—wouldbe technologically difficult and politically sensitive. It would also add tothe cost of these systems, which are already very expensive.In the face of shrinking defense budgets, this leaves the Air Force toanswer a set of difficult and interconnected questions: Where should itinvest resources to develop an effective defensive capability in space? Howcan it ensure that such vital services as communications and position,navigation, and timing remain available to the warfighter if space systemsare attacked? Can the U.S. military limit its dependence on space?In answering these questions, space and space assets cannot be consideredin abstract terms. What happens in space has real, immediateconsequences for U.S. military personnel on the ground, in the air, andat sea. That makes it necessary to balance theoretical risks against anunderstanding of how these systems are actually used.Defensive Counterspace Begins with AwarenessPAF is working to help the Air Force clarify and prioritize options fordefending space assets effectively. One important area of interest is spacesituational awareness—the ability to know what is happening to U.S.satellites in orbit and how that affects users on the ground.While engineers can determine whether a building has collapsedbecause of a natural disaster, design problem, or human action by directlyA low-flying weather-tracking satellite of the Defense Satellite Meteorological Program,which is supported by the 6th Space Operations Squadron at Schriever Air Force Base inColorado. This unit analyzes weather data and transmits to active theaters to increaseforceresponsivenessandflexibility.Annual Report 2007 11