RAND Project AIR FORCE Annual Report 2007 - RAND Corporation

Roger CliffHowdoyoutakeaproblemthatmayormaynotmaterializetenyearsfromnow and turn it into something you can begin to deal with today?Roger Cliff has been asking—and helping to answer—that question withrespecttoChinaforthepastdecade.CliffisaseniorpoliticalscientistatRANDwhosecareerhascoincidedwiththedevelopmentofacenterofexcellencefor strategic studies on China in PAF. He led the team that investigated China’santiaccess strategy.“AftertheColdWar,defenseanalystsbegantosuspectthatChinawastheonlycountryinAsia,andpossiblyintheworld,thatcouldposeasignificantmilitarythreattotheUnitedStates,”herecalls.“Butthethreatseemedremote.China was still very far behind the United States economically and militarily.”To help it make force-planning decisions that would need to be made yearsin advance of any threat materializing, the Air Force decided to invest in along-term series of studies on China in PAF. The purpose was to monitor China’sgrowth, discern developments in its military strategy and capabilities, assessthepotentialimplicationsforU.S.securityandinterests,andrecommendappropriate force postures to counter or mitigatethreats.Inthisway,theChinaresearchwouldresembletheSovietstudiesthatRANDperformedinthe 1950s.CliffjoinedRANDin 1997,astheChinaresearchwasgettingunderwayinearnest.HehadjustcompletedhisdoctorateininternationalrelationsatPrinceton,wherehefocusedonChina’srelationshipwithTaiwan.Sincethen,hehasworkedwithotherRANDanalysts,suchasDavidOrletsky,EvanMedeiros,KeithCrane,andDavidShlapak,onprojectsstudyingtheimplicationsofChinese arms sales, the military potential of China’s commercial technology,China’s military modernization efforts, and the future of U.S.-China relationsafter the resolution of Taiwan’s status.ForCliff,thekeytothisresearchlayinmakingtheconnectionbetweenChina’s political and strategic thinking and the military operational implicationsthat form the basis of force planning decisions. “It’s easy for regionalists like meto make predictions,” he says, “but the recommendation that most often comesoutofthatapproachistocontinuetopaycloseattentiontotheregion.Ourresearchhastogobeyondthat.”Cliffgainedaheightenedappreciationforthisconclusion during the two years he spent on loan from RAND to the Office ofthe Secretary of Defense, where he worked with military and civilian plannerson projects beyond Asia involving the U.S. intelligence community and the 2001Quadrennial Defense Review. “After that experience, I had a much better senseof what planners need from us and the way that operations analysis fits intoour regional work on China,” he says. “It requires another level of translation,first from Chinese to English, and then from Chinese political and doctrinalwritingstorealmilitarychallengesthattheU.S.armedforceshavetobepreparedfor.” As a project leader, Cliff puts this into practice by bringing togetherRANDexpertsfrombothregionalandoperationaldisciplines.TheapproachCliffandhiscolleagues(whoincludedMarkBurles,MichaelChase,DerekEaton,andKevinPollpeteratthetimeoftheantiaccessstudy)aretakingappearstobepayingoff.TheAirForceandotherserviceshavebeen adopting measures to mitigate the potential effects of China’s antiaccessstrategy, such as deploying Patriot antiballistic missile systems in Okinawa andforging a new agreement with Japan for contingency access to some of itsairfields in case of a military conflict in the region.Cliffexpectsthathisteam’sapproachwillcontinuetoyieldactionablerecommendationsfortheAirForceandDoD,especiallywithrespecttoChina’spotentialfutureair,missile,andspacepower.“TheAirForcedeservescreditfor continuing to stay focused on this issue despite more immediate challenges,suchasIraq,”hesays.“Chinesestrategyisevolvingasthesituationaroundtheworldisevolving.OurjobistohelptheU.S.militarymakesureit’sprepared to stay ahead of the curve.”28 RAND Project AIR FORCE