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ADVANCES in CLIMATECHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING,BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS andNATURAL HAZARDS3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES,GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10)3rd WSEAS International Conference on NATURAL HAZARDS(NAHA '10)University of Algarve, Faro, PortugalNovember 3-5, 2010Published by WSEAS Press ISSN: 1792-6173www.wseas.org ISSN: 1792-619XISBN: 978-960-474-247-9

ADVANCES in CLIMATECHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING,BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS andNATURAL HAZARDS3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES,GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10)3rd WSEAS International Conference on NATURAL HAZARDS(NAHA '10)University of Algarve, Faro, PortugalNovember 3-5, 2010Published by WSEAS Presswww.wseas.orgCopyright © 2010, by WSEAS PressAll the copyright of the present book belongs to the World Scientific and Engineering Academy andSociety Press. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalsystem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, orotherwise, without the prior written permission of the Editor of World Scientific and Engineering Academyand Society Press.All papers of the present volume were peer reviewed by two independent reviewers. Acceptance wasgranted when both reviewers' recommendations were positive.See also: http://www.worldses.org/review/index.htmlISSN: 1792-6173ISSN: 1792-619XISBN: 978-960-474-247-9World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society

ADVANCES in CLIMATECHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING,BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS andNATURAL HAZARDS3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES,GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10)3rd WSEAS International Conference on NATURAL HAZARDS(NAHA '10)University of Algarve, Faro, PortugalNovember 3-5, 2010

Editors:Thomas Panagopoulos, University of Algarve, PORTUGALInternational Program Committee Members:Joao Guerreiro, PORTUGALTeresa Noronha, PORTUGALEfigenio da Luz Rebelo, PORTUGALLuis Chicharo, PORTUGALJon Bryan Burley, USATomas Boski, PORTUGALLea Orlovsky, ISRAELJose Beltrao, PORTUGALTeresa Andresen, PORTUGALLuis Ribeiro, PORTUGALRui Guerra, PORTUGALInga Straupe, LATVIADulce Antunes, PORTUGALMaria de Belem Martins, PORTUGALMaria Bostenaru, ROMANIAFelipa Lopes dos Reis, PORTUGALLivia Madureira, PORTUGALNuno Pinto, PORTUGALCarlos Guerrero, PORTUGALClaudine Metral, SWITZERLANDIoannis Tsalikidis, GREECEC. Helmis, GREECEF. Rigas, GREECEN. Afgan, PORTUGALF. Akgun, TURKEYOmar Badran, JORDANY. Baudoin, BELGIUMA. Bitoleanu, ROMANIAL. Boch-Andersen, BELGIUMP. Casero, SPAINE. Frey, GERMANYM. Heiermann, GERMANYA. E. Holdo, UKD. De Keukeleere, BELGIUMM. Versan Kok, TURKEYG. Kolb, DENMARKA. Kurbatskiy, RUSSIAS. Linderoth, DENMARKP. Lunghi, ITALYC. Machens, GERMANYA. Midilli, CANADAJ. Van Mierlo, BELGIUMS. Ozdogan, TURKEYM. Reijalt, ITALYJ. Rogut, POLANDI. V. Singh, INDIAE. Smole, AUSTRIAR. Tamme, GERMANYM. Teixeira, PORTUGALR. Vigotti, ITALYG. Wolf, GERMANYG. Wisniewski, POLANDA. Van Zyl, BELGIUMZ. A. Vale, PORTUGALA. F. Zobaa, EGYPTMetin Demiralp, TURKEYValeri Mladenov, BULGARIAZoran Bojkovic, SERBIALeon Trilling, USAD. Perkins, USADionysios (Dion) D. Dionysiou, USALeonid Perlovsky, USAKent Davey, USADavid Landgrebe, USASteven H. Collicott, USAMarco Ceccarelli, ITALYJohn W. Lund, USADimitris Bertsekas, USADavid Staelin, USAA. Bers, MUSALeon Trilling, USALotfi Zadeh, USALeon Chua, USABrian A. Barsky, USALeonid Kazovsky, USARao Kamissety, USAStamatios Kartalopoulos, USA

PrefaceThis year the 3rd WSEAS International Conference on CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBALWARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS (CGB '10) and the 3rd WSEAS InternationalConference on NATURAL HAZARDS (NAHA '10) were held at the University of Algarve,Faro, Portugal, November 3-5, 2010. The conferences remain faithful to their original idea ofproviding a platform to discuss climate change factors, variations within the earth's climate, nonclimatefactors driving climate change, human influences on climate change, monitoring thecurrent status of climate, simulation of climate change, climate change and biodiversity,dynamics and stability of ecosystems, natural hazards, crops & drought, conditions that help thespread of vector-borne diseases etc. with participants from all over the world, both fromacademia and from industry.Their success is reflected in the papers received, with participants coming from several countries,allowing a real multinational multicultural exchange of experiences and ideas.The accepted papers of these conferences are published in this Book that will be indexed by ISI.Please, check it: www.worldses.org/indexes as well as in the CD-ROM Proceedings. They willbe also available in the E-Library of the WSEAS. The best papers will be also promoted in manyJournals for further evaluation.Conferences such as these can only succeed as a team effort, so the Editors want to thank theInternational Scientific Committee and the Reviewers for their excellent work in reviewing thepapers as well as their invaluable input and advice.The Editors

ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDSTable of ContentsPlenary Lecture 1: Effects of Global Climate Change on Development and Growth of Crops 11Jose Paulo de Melo-AbreuPlenary Lecture 2: The Contribution of Portuguese Agriculture to the Climate Change andAdaptation Strategies for the SectorCorina Carranca12Landscape Science and Global Environmental Change 13Olav SlaymakerClimate Changes and Their Effects on the Vegetation Recovery in the Pre-Aral Region 19Zhanna V. Kuzmina, Sergey E. TreshkinApplication of Helical and Energetic Characteristics of the Velocity Field to Predict andEvaluate Tropical Cyclones’ Formation and DevelopmentEkaterina Glebova25Visual Appearance of Turfgrass under Different Water Regimes 30Manuel Costa, Jose Beltrao, Joao Carrasco De Brito, Carlos GuerreroSalt Removing Crops in Arid Climates 36Gulom Bekmirzaev, Mukhamadkhan Khamidov, Jose Beltrao, Maria Alcinda NevesVegetation Changes in the Pine Forests of the Nature Park Tervete, Latvia 42Inga Straupe, Vija KreileThe Contribution of Portuguese Agriculture to the Climate Change, Mitigation andAdaptation Strategies for the SectorCorina CarrancaThe Agro-Forestry Farms’ Socioeconomic Characterization for a Forest Fire Prevention andManagement ModelAntonio Xavier, Maria De Belem MartinsThe Zonal Interpolation Of Socioeconomic Statistics: An Application of a Dasymetric MappingMethodology to the Region of AlgarveAntonio Xavier, Maria De Belem Martins485764The Climate and History of Algarve – Interactions 70Manuel CostaLinear Infrastructures in Complex Landscapes: The Case of A22 Highway, Portugal 76Elena Berte, Thomas PanagopoulosLava Flows Impact Prediction at Mount Etna by Cellular Automata 85Valeria Lupiano, Rocco Rongo, Maria Vittoria Avolio, William SpataroISSN: 1792-6173 / ISSN: 1792-619X 9 ISBN: 978-960-474-247-9

ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDSSeasonal Fluctuations of the Fine Fraction of PM1.0 in Urban Conglomerations 91Josef Navratil, Vladimir Adamec, Alena Bumbova, Alena Langerova, Lenka JesonkovaChanges in the Structure of Zooplankton Communities in the Freshwater Ecosystems in Latviaover the Last Five DecadesArturs Skute, Rasma Deksne, Jana Paidere, Natalja Skute, Aija Brakovska96Technology for Decision Support during Biological Incidents Responses 101Tereza Otcenaskova, Vladimir Bures, Pavel Cech, Karel AntosThe Effect of PAM (Polyacrilamid) on Wind Blown Sand Abrasion Injury and Production ofVegetablesJiftah Ben-Asher, Arthur Genis, Leonid Vulfson105Soil Erodibility Assessment at the Alqueva Dam Watershed, Portugal 112Vera Ferreira, Thomas PanagopoulosCarob-Tree as CO2 Sink in the Carbon Market 119Daniel Geraldo, Pedro Jose Correia, Jose Filipe, Luis NunesFormation of Agreements on Climate Change: The Impact of Uncertainty 124Michael Finus, Pedro PintassilgoAuthors Index 130ISSN: 1792-6173 / ISSN: 1792-619X 10 ISBN: 978-960-474-247-9

ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDSPlenary Lecture 1Effects of Global Climate Change on Development and Growth of CropsProfessor Jose Paulo de Melo-AbreuInstituto Superior de AgronomiaTechnical University of Lisbon (TULisbon)Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, PortugalAbstract: The increase of emissions of green house gases is changing the global climate. In most areas of the world,temperature will go on increasing, rainfall patterns will be distorted, absolute humidity will rise, and extreme weatherevents will be likely more frequent and severe. However, the projections that have been published show that theclimates of the various geographical areas are affected differently. In general, as far as crop performance isconcerned, lower latitudes get the most pernicious effects and higher latitudes tend to have little or no crop loss.Increased carbon dioxide concentration and some of the changes on weather elements will influence cropdevelopment and growth in a simple way, but other repercussions are more difficult to grasp.Increased carbon dioxide concentration in the air augments photosynthetic rate, mainly of C3 plants. Air temperatureincreases favour plant development and growth under colder conditions, but may reduce plant performance inwarmer areas. Higher temperatures may favour the development of pests and diseases. Increases in wintertemperature may lead to inadaptation of crops, mainly deciduous tree crops, that require chilling before new leavesand flowers are formed. Increases in summer temperature may lead to heat stress of some crops or varieties.Concentration of rainfall, that is likely to occur in many areas, will alter the soil water balance. These changes mayoccur seasonally or throughout the year, but they will mean less water available for crops and natural vegetation. Thismeans that water availability for crop production is likely to decrease in many areas where irrigation is necessary andrainfed production is already vulnerable to natural climate variability. It may therefore result in the need for changingcrop patterns or to adopt different crop varieties, and to use different cropping techniques, including changes inplanting dates.This presentation undergoes a comprehensive discussion of all these aspects, taking a quantitative perspective, thatincludes the exhibition of results of simulations, under different scenarios.Brief Biography of the Speaker: Professor Jose Paulo Mourao de Melo e Abreu is Associate Professor w/Habilitation in the Instituto Superior de Agronomia, The Technical University of Lisbon, and has undertakenresearched in the areas of Global Change, Agrometeorology and Modelling in Horticulture and Agriculture. Publishedabout eighty publications, including two FAO books, and delivered about fifty invited talks in Portugal and abroad.Developed twelve models.He is the national representative of Portugal in the European Society for Agronomy, is a referee of about twentyinternational journals and has organized three international meetings. Has been responsible for six research projects,including two international, and cooperated in many others.ISSN: 1792-6173 / ISSN: 1792-619X 11 ISBN: 978-960-474-247-9

ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDSPlenary Lecture 2The Contribution of Portuguese Agriculture to the Climate Change and AdaptationStrategies for the SectorMrs. Corina CarrancaResearcherINRB, I.P/INIAQuinta do Marques, Av. Republica, Nova Oeiras2784-505 Oeiras, PortugalE-mail: corina.carranca@inrb.ptAbstract: Agriculture in Portugal contributes for less than 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, where34% comes from methane (CH 4 ) from animal husbandry, 64% comes from nitrogen (N) oxides (NOx and N 2 O) by theintensive use of mineral fertilizers, the incomplete nitrification and denitrification processes, the waterlogged ricefields, the addition of organic compounds to the soil, the drip fertigation, the N2 fixation by legumes, particularly, thepastures, and the sediments, by the alternate wetting and drying processes and the presence of soil organisms suchas worms. Animal husbandry is the main responsible (71%) for total emission coming from agriculture, particularly thedairy cows housed. Methane emissions from animal housing are mainly caused by enteric fermentation. Duringstorage and after spreading of farmyard manure in the soil substantial differences concerning ammonia (NH 3 ), N 2 Oand CH 4 emissions occur with composted and anaerobically stacked farmyard manure. The compost can emit moreNH 3 than the anaerobically stacked farmyard manure. Ammonia is also released during the industrial production ofmineral fertilizers and from senescent leaves. In agriculture, forests are the main responsible for CO 2 emission (4 MtCO 2 equivalent year -1 ) by the respiration process, and the double amount can be reached in presence of fires.However, forests have an important role on CO 2 capture during the photosynthetic process, by C accumulation in theplant biomass and soil organic matter. The Portuguese forest can sequester about 80 t CO 2 ha -1 year -1 andcontributed to about 18% of C sequestration in 2010. The eucalyptus has a very efficient capacity to use water andnutrients and can accumulate C in the biomass and soil more efficiently than other plant species in temperate climate.Microbial activity is also responsible for CO 2 emission, particularly under soil disturbance. This is the case of pasturesconversion to annual crops. On the other hand, if soil conservation practices have been used, such as for permanentpastures, CO 2 sequestration in the soil is appreciable. "Montado" is a Portuguese extensive farming systemconsisting of cork and holm-oak trees, several shrubs and biodiverse pastures. This is a very sustainable agriculturalsystem where the biodiverse pasture consists of more than 20 species and include several legumes. They cansequester more than 4 t C ha -1 year -1 , particularly in the soil since the crops are used for animal feeding (-4.5 t C km -2year -1 ). Supposing an increase from 10 to 30 g organic matter kg -1 soil, an accumulation of 33 t C ha -1 in a 15 cmlayer is expected, corresponding to a sequestration of the order of 128 t CO2 ha -1 . These data show that 200,000 haof permanent pastures will largely meet the Kyoto Protocol Commitment (1997). About 80% of cultivated plants canbe associated with mycorrhizal soil fungi. This symbiosis allows a better performance and health for most efficientlymycorrhized plants, particularly under biotic and abiotic stress, such as drought, high temperatures, saline soil andcontaminants. These plants can capture more CO 2 from the atmosphere by the photosynthetic process, producinghigher levels of photo assimilates which are exuded by the roots enriching the mycorrhizosphere and contributing forC sequestration.Brief Biography of the Speaker: Corina Carranca is a Researcher at INRB, I.P./INIA, at Oeiras (Portugal). She is aspecialist in nitrogen cycling, namely nitrogen dynamics in soils and plant nutrition. She published ninety eightpublications, including ten book chapters and thirty-three publications in national and international peer-reviewjournals. She was a national representative of Portugal in the European Union for the Directive for Soil Conservationand Protection. She has been a referee of sixteen national and international journals and books and was included intwo Editorial Boards of two international journals. She has been responsible for fifteen national research projects andcooperated in many others.ISSN: 1792-6173 / ISSN: 1792-619X 12 ISBN: 978-960-474-247-9

ADVANCES in CLIMATE CHANGES, GLOBAL WARMING, BIOLOGICAL PROBLEMS and NATURAL HAZARDSAuthors IndexBrakovska, A. 96 Costa, M. 30, 70Bumbova, A. 91 Neves, M. A. 36Langerova, A. 91 Martins, M. De B. 57, 64Xavier, A. 57, 64 Avolio, M. V. 85Genis, A. 105 Finus, M. 124Skute, A. 96 Khamidov, M. 36Guerrero, C. 30 Skute, N. 96Carranca, C. 48 Slaymaker, O. 13Geraldo, D. 119 Cech, P. 101Glebova, E. 25 Correia, P. J. 119Berte, E. 76 Pintassilgo, P. 124Bekmirzaev, G. 36 Deksne, R. 96Straupe, I. 42 Rongo, R. 85Paidere, J. 96 Treshkin, S. E. 19Ben-Asher, J. 105 Otcenaskova, T. 101De Brito, J. C. 30 Panagopoulos, T. 76, 112Beltrao, J. 30, 36 Lupiano, V. 85Filipe, J. 119 Ferreira, V. 112Navratil, J. 91 Kreile, V. 42Antos, K. 101 Adamec, V. 91Jesonkova, L. 91 Bures, V. 101Vulfson, L. 105 Spataro, W. 85Nunes, L. 119 Kuzmina, Z. V. 19ISSN: 1792-6173 / ISSN: 1792-619X 130 ISBN: 978-960-474-247-9