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The Northern Yellowstone Elk: Density Dependence and Climatic ...

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120 DENSITY DEPENDENCE IN YELLOWSTONE ELK * Taper <strong>and</strong> GoganJ. Wildl. Manage. 66(1):2002ported by establishment of the Dome MountainWildlife Management Area by MDFWP <strong>and</strong> acquisitionof other private l<strong>and</strong>s north ofYNP by sporthuntingorganizations. <strong>The</strong> MDFWP is responsiblefor establishing harvest quotas during aregular fall hunt <strong>and</strong> a late winter hunt. Huntersuccess is influenced by a combination of the timing<strong>and</strong> numbers of elk leaving the park, weather,<strong>and</strong> MFWP regulations. <strong>The</strong> MFWP has steadilyincreased the legal harvest of northern range elkin both the regular <strong>and</strong> late hunts. An average of>1,500 elk were taken each year by huntersbetween winters 1975-1976 <strong>and</strong> 1996-1997 (Lemkeet al. 1998). During winters 1991-1992 <strong>and</strong>1996-1997, numbers removed (Lemke et al. 1998)approximated the lower levels of elk removals withinYNP during the 1950s <strong>and</strong> 1960s during the controlperiod (W. J. Barmore, National Park Service,unpublished report). <strong>The</strong> extent to which currentremovals mimic prehistoric winter dispersalof elk from the northern range remains unknown.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS<strong>The</strong> data analyzed herein were secured by thehard work <strong>and</strong> dedication of biologists of theNational Park Service, Montana Department ofFish, Wildlife <strong>and</strong> Parks, U.S. Forest Service, <strong>and</strong>the U.S. Geological Survey. Since 1983, theseefforts have been coordinated through the<strong>Northern</strong> <strong>Yellowstone</strong> Cooperative Wildlife WorkingGroup. We are particularly grateful to T. W.Lemke, J. A. Mack, <strong>and</strong> D. Tyers for their collaborativeefforts to gather the recent data. Inpreparation of this manuscript, we benefitedfrom discussions of the topic of density dependencein ungulate populations with D. B. Houston,D. R. McCullough, C. W. Fowler, M. S. Boyce,<strong>and</strong> B. Dennis. Many of these individuals alsoprovided comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript.C. Jerde produced the figures. Thisstudy was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey-<strong>Northern</strong>Rocky Mountain Science Center.LITERATURE CITEDAKAIKE, H. 1973. Information theory as an extension ofthe maximum likelihood principle. Pages 267-281 inB. N. Petrov <strong>and</strong> F. Csaki, editors. Second InternationalSymposium on Information <strong>The</strong>ory. AkademiaiKiadi, Budapest, Hungary.BJ0RNSTAD, O. N., J.-M. FROMENTIN, N. C. STENSTETH,ANDJ. GJ0SATER. 1999. A new test for density-dependentsurvival: the case of coastal cod populations.Ecology 80:1278-1288.BOYCE, M. S. 1993. Predicting the consequences of wolfrecovery to ungulates in <strong>Yellowstone</strong> National Park.Pages 234-269 in R. S. Cook, editor. Ecological issueson reintroducing wolves into <strong>Yellowstone</strong> NationalPark. U.S. Department of the Interior, National ParkService Scientific Monograph NPS/NRYELUNRSM-93/22., AND J.-M. GAILLARD. 1992. Wolves in <strong>Yellowstone</strong>,Jackson Hole, <strong>and</strong> the North Fork of theShoshone River: simulating ungulate consequencesof wolf recovery. Pages 4-71 to 4-115 inJ. D. Varley<strong>and</strong> W. G. Brewster, editors. Wolves for <strong>Yellowstone</strong>:a report to the United States Congress. Volume IV:research & analysis. U.S. Department of the Interior,National Park Service, <strong>Yellowstone</strong> National Park,Wyoming, USA., AND E. H. MERRILL. 1996. Predicting effects of1988 fires on ungulates in <strong>Yellowstone</strong> National Park.Pages 361-366 in F.J. Singer, editor. Effects of grazingby wild ungulates in <strong>Yellowstone</strong> National Park.U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park ServiceTechnical Report NPS/NRYELL/NRTR/96-01.BUCKLAND, S. T., K. P. BURNHAM, AND N. H. AUGUSTIN.1997. Model selection: an integral part of inference.Biometrics 53:603-618.BURNHAM, K. P., AND D. R. ANDERSON. 1998. Model selection<strong>and</strong> inference: a practical information theoreticapproach. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA.CASWELL, H. 2001. Matrix population models: construction,analysis, <strong>and</strong> interpretation. Second edition.Sinauer Associates, Sunderl<strong>and</strong>, Massachusetts,USA.CHATFIELD, C. 1995. Model uncertainty, data mining<strong>and</strong> statistical inference. Journal of the Royal StatisticalSociety Series A 158:419-466.CHEVILLE, N. F., D. R. MCCULLOUGH, AND L. R. PAULSON.1998. Brucellosis in the greater <strong>Yellowstone</strong> area.National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., USA.CHOQUENOT, D. 1991. <strong>Density</strong>-dependent growth, bodycondition, <strong>and</strong> demography in feral donkeys: testingthe food hypothesis. Ecology 72:805-813.CLUTTON-BROCK, T. H., A. W. ILLIUS, K. WILSON, G. T.GRENFELL, A. D. C. MACCOLL, AND S. D. ALBON. 1997.Stability <strong>and</strong> instability in ungulate populations: anempirical analysis. American Naturalist 149:195-219.,M. MAJOR, S. D. ALBON, AND F. E. GUINNESS.1987. Early development <strong>and</strong> population dynamics inred deer. I. <strong>Density</strong> dependent effects on juvenilesurvival. Journal of Animal Ecology 66:53-67.COLE, G. F. 1971. <strong>The</strong> ecological rationale for the naturalor artificial regulation of native ungulates inparks. Transactions of the North American Wildlife<strong>and</strong> Natural Resources Conference 36:417-425.COUGHENOUR, M. B., AND F. J. SINGER. 1996. <strong>Elk</strong> populationprocesses in <strong>Yellowstone</strong> National Park underthe policy of natural regulation. Ecological Applications6:573-593.DENNIS, B., AND M. R. M. OTTEN. 2000. Joint effects ofdensity dependence <strong>and</strong> rainfall on abundance ofSanJoaquin kit fox. Journal of Wildlife Management64:388-400., AND M. L. TAPER. 1994. <strong>Density</strong> dependence intime series observations of natural populations: estimation<strong>and</strong> testing. Ecological Monographs64:205-224.EBERHARDT, L. L. 1970. Correlation, regression, <strong>and</strong>density dependence. Ecology 51:306-310.1977. "Optimal" management policies formarine mammals. Wildlife Society Bulletin 5:162-169.

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