The probable impacts of climate change on poverty - UNDP

Policy Study on
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty
and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping
with Adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Support to Monitoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh
General Economics Division, Planning Commission,
Government <strong>of</strong> the People’s Republic <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh &
UNDP Bangladesh

Policy Study on
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and
Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping
with Adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Research Team
Dr. Atiq Rahman, Team Leader
Mr. Mozaharul Alam. Coordinator and Adaptation Expert
Mr. Khandaker Mainuddin, Poverty Assessment Specialist
Md. Liaquat Ali, Natural Resource Management Specialist
Mr. S.M. Alauddin, Social Development Specialist
Mr. Md. Golam Rabbani, Water and Infrastructure Specialist
Dr. Md. Muslem Uddin Miah, Agriculture Specialist
Mr. Md. Rabi Uzzaman, Assistant Study Coordinator
Mr. Shah Mohammad Ashraful Amin, Disaster Assessment Expert
Publication: May 2009
Published by :
Support to Monitoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh
General Economics Division, Planning Commission,
Government <strong>of</strong> the People’s Republic <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh &
UNDP Bangladesh
<strong>The</strong> analysis, findings & recommendations <strong>of</strong> this study do not necessarily reflect the views <strong>of</strong> General Economics
Division, Planning Commission and United Nations Development Programme, rather with which the duly research
institution is concerned.

Foreword
<strong>The</strong> General Economics Division (GED) <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission initiated Policy
Studies relating to MDGs under its UNDP assisted project 'Support to Monitoring
PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh'. Policy studies were felt necessary to support
informed and evidence based policy and strategy making for development planning.
In the first phase, three topics were selected for the policy studies. One <strong>of</strong> these three
studies is '<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic
Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with Adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in
Bangladesh'. This study was outsourced to 'Bangladesh Centre for Advanced
Studies (BCAS)'.
<strong>The</strong> study examines the global initiatives on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and points out various
aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> regarding poverty and economic growth and ways <strong>of</strong>
coping with its adverse effects in Bangladesh. It projects that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> could
affect more than 70 million people <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh due to its geographic location, low
elevation, high population density, poor infrastructure, high levels <strong>of</strong> poverty and
high dependency on natural resources.
<strong>The</strong> study identifies areas that need to be given priority by the Government <strong>of</strong>
Bangladesh and other concerns. It recommends that Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh
should consider scientific <strong>climate</strong> models and IPCC (Inter-government Panel on the
Climate Change) reports as the basis to prepare country specific <strong>climate</strong> action plans
in line with the sectoral projections / policies / plans for <strong>climate</strong> adaptation purposes.
<strong>The</strong> Study suggests implementation <strong>of</strong> the national <strong>climate</strong> strategy and action plans
particularly in the area <strong>of</strong> food security, social protection, human health,
infrastructure, knowledge management and research, capacity building and
institutional strengthening, in the context <strong>of</strong> poverty reduction and economic
growth.
We hope that the study would be useful in policy making in the evolving <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> mitigation and adaptation program for Bangladesh. We express our
appreciation to BCAS for carrying out the study on behalf <strong>of</strong> GED. We would also like
to thank UNDP for supporting GED in undertaking this policy study.
National Project Director, Support to Monitoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh
General Economics Division, Planning Commission
Government <strong>of</strong> the People's Republic <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh

Table <strong>of</strong> Contents
Executive Summary xiii
1. Background 1
1.1 Climate Change and Millennium Development Goals 3
1.2 Climate and Climate Change in Bangladesh 4
2. <strong>The</strong> Study 7
2.1 Objectives <strong>of</strong> the Project 9
2.2 Scope <strong>of</strong> Work 9
3. Conceptual Framework, Methodology and Tools 11
3.1 Conceptual Framework: Understanding and Framing Linkage between Poverty and Climate Change 13
3.1.1 Climate Change 13
3.1.2 Impacts and Vulnerability 13
3.1.3 Review <strong>of</strong> PRSP and MDGs in the Context <strong>of</strong> Climate Change 13
3.2 Strategy to Deal with Adverse Effects <strong>of</strong> Climate Change 14
3.2.1 Reduction <strong>of</strong> Exposure and Sensitivity 14
3.2.2 Enhance Adaptive Capacity <strong>of</strong> Vulnerable Sectors and Communities 14
3.3 Analytical Methods and Tools 15
3.3.1 Assessment <strong>of</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth 15
3.3.1.1 Analysis <strong>of</strong> Poverty Database 15
3.3.1.2 Assessment <strong>of</strong> Impacts on Key Sectors and by Regions 15
3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts 16
3.3.1.4 Workshops 16
3.3.2 Formulation <strong>of</strong> Strategies and Policy Choices 16
3.3.2.1 Formulation <strong>of</strong> Draft Strategies and Policy Choices 16
3.3.2.2 Workshop and Finalization <strong>of</strong> Strategies 16
4. Climate Change, I pacts and vulnerability – Global and Regional Context 17
4.1 Climate Change - Global Context 19
4.1.1 Impacted Sectors: Freshwater Resources 19
4.1.2 Ecosystem 19
4.1.3 Food, Fibre & Forest Product 19
4.1.4 Coastal & Low Lying Areas 20
4.1.5 Industry and Human Settlement 20
4.1.6 Health and Nutrition 20
4.2 Climate Change - Regional Context 20
5. Climate Change – Bangladesh 23
5.1 Climate Change Studies Bangladesh 25
5.2 Present and Future Scenario <strong>of</strong> Climate 26
v

5.2.1 Observed Changes 26
5.2.1.1 Temperature 26
5.2.1.2 Rainfall 26
5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario 27
5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salinity Intrusion 29
5.4 Extreme Climatic Events 31
5.4.1 Changes in Flood Frequency 32
5.4.2 Changes in Cyclone and Storm Surges 34
5.4.3 Changes in Drought 35
6. Bangladesh: Impacts <strong>of</strong> and Vulnerabilities to Climate Change 39
6.1 Context <strong>of</strong> Vulnerability 41
6.2 Impacts on Crop Agriculture 42
6.2.1 Existing Impacts – Perception 42
6.2.2 Future Impacts – Perception 46
6.2.3 Future Impacts – Model Result 47
6.3 Fisheries 48
6.3.1 Existing Impacts – Perception 48
6.3.2 Future Impacts 48
6.4 Livestock 49
6.5 Forestry 49
6.6 Water Supply and Sanitation 50
6.7 Industry and Infrastructure 51
6.8 Health 52
6.8.1 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Health- Perception 53
6.8.2 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Health- observed <strong>change</strong>s 53
6.9 Education 55
7. Climate Change, Poverty and Economic Growth 59
7.1 Distribution <strong>of</strong> Poverty 61
7.2 Intensity and Severity <strong>of</strong> Poverty 63
7.3 Climate Change Impacts on Poverty and Economic Growth 64
7.3.1 Agriculture 64
7.3.2 Fisheries 65
7.3.3 Livestock 66
7.3.4 Forestry 66
7.3.5 Water and Sanitation 67
7.3.6 Health 68
7.3.7 Education 68
7.4 Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth 68
7.4.1 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Hazards on Sectors 69
7.4.2 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Hazards on GDP 70
7.4.3 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Flood on Different Types <strong>of</strong> Livelihoods 72
7.4.3.1 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Khulna Division 72
7.4.3.2 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Chittagong Division 72
7.4.3.3 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Rajshahi Division 72
7.4.3.4 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Dhaka Division 72
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7.4.3.5 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Sylhet Division 73
7.4.3.6 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Barisal Division 73
7.4.3.7 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Bangladesh 73
7.4.4 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Cyclone on Different Types <strong>of</strong> Livelihood 73
7.4.5 Causes and Impacts Relationship 74
8. Existing Coping Strategies/Practices 77
8.1 Crop Agriculture 79
8.2 Fisheries 79
8.3 Forestry 80
8.4 Livestock 80
8.5 Water and Sanitation 80
8.6 Industry and Infrastructure 81
8.7 Health 81
8.8 Education 81
9. Probable Future Coping Strategies 83
9.1 Reduction <strong>of</strong> Exposure 85
9.2 Reduction <strong>of</strong> Sensitivity 88
9.3 Improvement <strong>of</strong> Adaptive Capacity <strong>of</strong> Community 92
9.4 Institutional Capacity Building 94
10. Changes Needed in Planning Process 97
10.1 Incorporation <strong>of</strong> Climate Change 99
10.2 Creating Enabling Condition 99
10.3 Ensure Participation <strong>of</strong> Vulnerable Communities and Local Need 99
10.4 Role <strong>of</strong> General Economic Division 100
10.5 mmediate Projects for Implementation 100
10.5.1 Enhance understanding and knowledge on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and development
with special focus on poverty and economic growth 100
10.5.2 Quantitative analysis and assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on
economic growth and poverty by regions and livelihood groups 101
10.5.3 Capacity Enhancement <strong>of</strong> Planning Cadre on Climate Change Issues 102
11. Conclusion 103
12. Key Terminologies 107
12.1 Climate 109
12.2 Climate Change 109
12.3 Climate System 109
12.4 Climate Variability 109
12.5 Extreme Weather Event 109
References 110
vii

List <strong>of</strong> Tables
Table 1.1 Linkages between Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change vulnerability context 3
Table 5.1 Climate Change scenario for Bangladesh 28
Table 5.2 Climate <strong>change</strong> scenarios <strong>of</strong> different seasons and geographical regions <strong>of</strong> the country 28
Table 5.3 Trend <strong>of</strong> tidal surge in three coastal stations 29
Table 5.4 Sea level <strong>change</strong> under different emission scenarios 29
Table 5.5 Changes in fresh and brackish water area [in Ha] in dry and monsoon seasons 30
Table 5.6 Frequency table <strong>of</strong> Hazards 31
Table 5.7 Different types <strong>of</strong> flood occurring in Bangladesh 32
Table 5.8 Flood with area coverage 33
Table 5.9 Return period <strong>of</strong> flood according to affected area 34
Table 5.10 Historical record <strong>of</strong> cyclone formed in the Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal 34
Table 5.11 Existing Drought affected Areas under different drought classes 36
Table 5.12 Drought Affected areas 37
Table 5.13 Frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrence <strong>of</strong> drought 37
Table 5.14 Showing historical significance <strong>of</strong> drought 37
Table 6.1 Summary <strong>of</strong> vulnerability context 41
Table 6.2 Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on different sectors 42
Table 6.3 Perception <strong>of</strong> present level Impacts related to Climate Change on crop 43
agriculture in the flood and flash flood affected areas
Table 6.4 Perception <strong>of</strong> present level <strong>impacts</strong> related to Climate Change on crop 43
agriculture in the drought prone areas
Table 6.5 Perception <strong>of</strong> present level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> related to Climate Change on crop 44
agriculture in the coastal areas
Table 6.6 Loss <strong>of</strong> production by different types <strong>of</strong> hazards 45
Table 6.7 Perception <strong>of</strong> future level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> related to Climate Change in the flood prone areas 46
Table 6.8 Perception <strong>of</strong> future level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> related to Climate Change in the drought prone areas 46
Table 6.9 Perception <strong>of</strong> future level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> related to Climate Change in the Coastal areas 47
Table 6.10 Damage to infrastructure by different major cyclones 51
Table 6.11 Damage to infrastructure by recent floods 52
Table 6.12 Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on health 53
Table 6.13 Incidence <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea during major flood events 54
Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history in Bangladesh 55
Table 6.15 Dengue incidences in Bangladesh 55
Table 6.16 Impacts <strong>of</strong> different disasters on education infrastructure and the subsequent <strong>impacts</strong> 56
Table 7.1 Climatic elements, critical vulnerable areas and impacted sectors
and links with PRSP and MDGs 61
Table 7.2 Number and density <strong>of</strong> poor people by region, 2005 63
Table 7.3 Poverty Gap and Squared Poverty Gap by region, 2005 64
Table 7.4 Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on crop
agriculture, poverty and economic growth 64
Table 7.5 Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on fisheries, poverty and economic growth 65
Table 7.6 Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on livestock, poverty and economic growth 66
Table 7.7 Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on forestry, poverty and economic growth 67
Table 7.8 Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on water and
sanitation, poverty and economic growth 68
Table 7.9 Damage to Boro Rice production due to cyclone, storm surge and hail storm (in M. Ton) 69
Table 7.10 Loss <strong>of</strong> Boro Rice due to flood (in M. Ton) 69
Table 7.11 Loss <strong>of</strong> AUS Rice due to flood (in M. Ton) 70
Table 7.12 Loss <strong>of</strong> AMAN Rice due to flood (in M Ton) 70
viii

Table 7.13 Change in contribution to GDP due to Climate Change related hazards 70
Table 7.14 Exposure <strong>of</strong> households involved in agriculture to cyclone 76
Table 9.1 Provides list <strong>of</strong> adaptation measures to reduce exposure 85
Table 9.2 Provides list <strong>of</strong> adaptation options to reduce sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the system 88
Table 9.3 Provides types <strong>of</strong> intervention to enhance adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the community 92
Table 9.4 Provides types <strong>of</strong> intervention to enhance adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the community 94
List <strong>of</strong> Figures
Figure 3.1 Strength <strong>of</strong> relationship <strong>of</strong> climatic signals and their <strong>impacts</strong> on sectors
and social development 14
Figure 3.2 Linkages and formulation <strong>of</strong> strategies for adaptation and mitigation 15
Figure 5.1 Changes in trend <strong>of</strong> annual rainfall and days-without rain (Rangpur station) 27
Figure 6.1 Year-wise occurrence <strong>of</strong> flood with % <strong>of</strong> area inundated and damage to crops 45
Figure 6.2 Relationship between temperature and malarial incidences 54
Figure 7.1 Existing Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth
in Relation to <strong>impacts</strong> on Sectors-Flood Prone Area 75
Figure 7.2 Existing Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth
in Relation to <strong>impacts</strong> on Sectors-Coastal Area 75
Figure 7.3 Existing Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth
in Relation to <strong>impacts</strong> on Sectors-Drought Prone Area 76
ix

x
ADB Asian Development Bank
AEZ Agro Ecological Zone
AR4 Fourth Assessment Report
A B B R E V I A T I O N
BARI Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute
BBS Bangladesh Bureau <strong>of</strong> Statistics
BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
BCCSAP Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan
BINA Bangladesh Institute <strong>of</strong> Nuclear Agriculture
BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department
BRRI Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
BUET Bangladesh University <strong>of</strong> Engineering and Technology
BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board
CCC Climate Change Cell
CCCM Canadian Climate Change Model
CCIA Climate Change Impact Assessment
CDMP Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme
CEGIS Centre for Environment and Geographic Information System
CNRS Centre for Natural Resource Studies
DAE Department <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Extension
DoE Department <strong>of</strong> Environment
DSSAT Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
GCM General Circulation Model
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GED General Economic Division
GIS Geographic Information System

GO Government Organization
GoB Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh
A B B R E V I A T I O N
HIES Household Income and Expenditure Survey
HYV High Yielding Variety
ICDDR,B International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IWM Institute <strong>of</strong> Water Modeling
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MOEF Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environment and Forestry
MoU Memorandum <strong>of</strong> Understanding
NAPA National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action
NGO Non-Government Organization
ODA Overseas Development Assistance
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies
PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PSF Pond Sand Filters
SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
SIS Small Indigenous Species
SLR Sea Level Rise
SMRC SAARC Meteorological Research Centre
SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios
STW Shallow Tube-Well
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
xi

Executive Summary
<strong>The</strong> Responding Probable Impacts to <strong>The</strong> <strong>of</strong> Millennium Climate Change Development on Poverty Challenge and Economic through Growth Private and Sector’s Involvement in Bangladesh
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Climate <strong>change</strong> is a reality and no longer a future
concern. Many adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> stimuli
including variability and extreme are already visible. <strong>The</strong>
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) <strong>of</strong> the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
reported that the average global surface temperature
has increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years. It is also
reported that the sea level rose at an average rate <strong>of</strong> 1.8
mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and mountain glaciers
and snow cover have declined on average in both
hemispheres. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or
above current rates would cause further warming and
induce many <strong>change</strong>s in the global climatic system
during the 21st century. It has also stated that <strong>impacts</strong>
during the 21st century would very likely be larger than
those observed during the 20th century. For South Asia,
IPCC report predicts that monsoon rainfall will increase,
resulting in higher flows during monsoon season in the
river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will
be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to
salinity intrusion and coastal flooding.
Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> related extreme events. It is expected that
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will bring <strong>change</strong>s in characteristics <strong>of</strong>
extreme events and gradual <strong>change</strong>s phenomenon <strong>of</strong>
the physical and natural systems. Due to higher level <strong>of</strong>
dependency on natural resource base, overall <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on Bangladesh would be significant. It is
estimated that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> could affect more than
70 million people <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh. Key factors
contributing to its vulnerability are geographic location,
low elevation, high population density, poor
infrastructure, high levels <strong>of</strong> poverty and dependency
on natural resources. Coastal resources upon which the
most people depend are likely to be affected severally
due to <strong>climate</strong> variability and <strong>change</strong>. It is predicted that
for 45 cm rise <strong>of</strong> sea level may inundate 10-15% <strong>of</strong> the
land by the year 2050 resulting over 35 million <strong>climate</strong>
migrant from the coastal districts.
Ultimately adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will have
the potential to undermine poverty reduction efforts
and could compromise the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) and targets, such as the reduction <strong>of</strong>
poverty and hunger by 2015. <strong>The</strong> National Strategy for
Accelerated Poverty Reduction (2009-2011) has
recognised <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as one <strong>of</strong> the emerging
issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are generally
most vulnerable to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> because they live in
areas more prone to flooding, cyclones, droughts etc.,
xiii

and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. <strong>The</strong>y are also more dependent on ecosystem services and
products for their livelihoods. Any impact that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has on natural systems therefore threatens the
livelihoods, food intake and health <strong>of</strong> poor people. Loss <strong>of</strong> employment and <strong>impacts</strong> on assets are likely to
reduce opportunities for education in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children
may be required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cyclone
and storm surges damage school facilities and educational materials.
<strong>The</strong> United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has undertaken a project “Support to Monitoring Poverty
Reduction Strategies and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Bangladesh” to enhance the institutional
capacity <strong>of</strong> the government’s General Economic Division (GED) as the National Poverty Focal Point. Under this
project, Planning Commission under the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Planning has carried out a research on “<strong>The</strong> Probable
Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with Adverse Effect <strong>of</strong>
Climate Change in Bangladesh.” Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) has undertaken this research on
behalf <strong>of</strong> the General Economic Division. <strong>The</strong> overall objective <strong>of</strong> the project is to enhance institutional capacity
<strong>of</strong> the General Economic Division to respond to the planning perspectives <strong>of</strong> the dynamically evolving socioeconomic
circumstances under changing <strong>climate</strong>.
This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative assessment approaches and used primary and
secondary data and information. Understanding the relationship between <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty was one
<strong>of</strong> the key areas. It has been done through analyzing available poverty data and information and information on
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and its <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors. Another area <strong>of</strong> the study was to understand <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic growth which has been done through analysing major sectors contributing to
economic growth and their <strong>impacts</strong> due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction,
and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan have been consulted to understand poverty and
<strong>climate</strong> related policy aspect. Based on these analyses, the report contains required policy, and strategy to deal
with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in the context <strong>of</strong> poverty and economic growth, as well as possible role
<strong>of</strong> General Economic Division. In order to derive expert opinion on linkage among <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> adverse
<strong>impacts</strong>, poverty and economic growth, about 30 individuals have been interviewed from relevant sectors and
two small expert group consultations have conducted. It is also to be noted that this report has been finalized
through sharing with key stakeholders in a workshop and suggestions have been incorporated in the final
report.
<strong>The</strong> analysis from expert interviews revealed that reduction <strong>of</strong> crop yield by gradual <strong>change</strong> and total or partial
damage due to extreme events are key <strong>impacts</strong> facing by crop agriculture sector. It is also to be noted that most
<strong>of</strong> the crops are affected at flowering to grain-filling stage and thus <strong>impacts</strong> vary by agro-ecological zone. It has
been revealed that 50% reduction <strong>of</strong> crop production would increase poverty at the same percentage.
Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on economic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce 12% <strong>of</strong> GDP
contribution for a particular disaster. Effects <strong>of</strong> cyclone are more severe than flood. <strong>The</strong> experts agreed that 60%
damage <strong>of</strong> crop by a cyclone increases poverty at the same percentage affecting their resources and livelihoods,
and decreases economic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty eradication and hunger)
is badly affected and pushed backward. Besides, drought, cold spell, river bank erosion etc. have remarkable
<strong>impacts</strong> on crop agriculture and consequently on poverty and economic growth.
In the fisheries sector <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will have both negative and positive <strong>impacts</strong>. <strong>The</strong> positive impact is
possible increase in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the <strong>impacts</strong> would not be remarkable
in national context rather it would affect investment at individual level. <strong>The</strong> key experts’ interviews and
consultation workshops revealed that flood and cyclone affect culture fisheries severely while effects <strong>of</strong> other
shocks such as drought, salinity intrusion, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. This
leads to loss <strong>of</strong> livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor fishermen and decrease nutrition status <strong>of</strong> the rural poor. Moreover,
frequent warnings <strong>of</strong> cyclone lead the fishermen to stay at home for longer periods and thus their income
decreased which increased their poverty level.
<strong>The</strong> consultation with key experts’ state that livestock sector is badly affected by <strong>climate</strong> variability and shocks.
xiv
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Flood, drought, cyclone, sea level rise etc. are the major <strong>climate</strong> induced natural disasters which cause loss <strong>of</strong>
livestock, damage pasturelands, increase fodder scarcity, destroy shelters, decrease production, increase
management cost through incidence <strong>of</strong> diseases etc. It is also perceive that severe <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
and extremes on livestock affect poverty moderately. But the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> sea level rise affects poverty and
economic growth <strong>of</strong> this particular sector severely as stated by the key experts. Drought, salinity intrusion and heat
wave affect the sector moderately and consequently, both poverty and economic growth are moderately affected.
Thus, the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on livestock affect poverty reduction activities and in attaining the MDGs.
<strong>The</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> extreme weather events especially, cyclone and storm surge on forestry affect poverty and
economic growth in different ways. <strong>The</strong> supper cyclone Sidr destructed one-quarter <strong>of</strong> the Sundarbans and
almost 100% afforested trees along its path. Poverty is severely affected by cyclone in the context <strong>of</strong> severity <strong>of</strong>
impact on forestry. Livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor and marginal communities in the forest areas, especially in the
Sundarbans area mostly depend on forest resources. Very pertinently, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> shocks on forestry affect the
poor <strong>of</strong> that particular livelihood group. It is perceived that salinity intrusion severely affect forest trees and
resources especially in the coastal region. This has moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic growth. <strong>The</strong>
other shocks like flood and drought have moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on forestry which has low <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and
economic growth. Besides this, erratic rainfall and temperature variation have low <strong>impacts</strong> on forestry and lower
<strong>impacts</strong> on poverty.
It is likely that the gradual <strong>change</strong> phenomena such as temperature rise and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall will lead
to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity intrusion will deteriorate water quality in
the coastal region. Climate <strong>change</strong> related extreme events particularly cyclone and storm surge will damage
water supply and sanitation infrastructure particularly in the coastal region.
Flood and cyclone are the two major climatic events which affect industry sector severely. <strong>The</strong> women workers
involved in handloom become fully unemployed during flood. In the coastal area, industry and infrastructure are
mainly affected by cyclone and storm surge. It destroys buildings <strong>of</strong> industries and machineries in one hand; on
the other hand, it destroys roads and other communication networks, power supply networks, water supply
networks, and causes health degradation and death <strong>of</strong> workers. Moreover, salinity has large scale <strong>impacts</strong> on
industry.
Human health suffers from different climatic variability and shocks in different ways. It is revealed from the
analysis that health is affected, especially during and after shocks like flood and cyclone. Flood affects sources <strong>of</strong>
drinking water and sanitation system through contamination which lead to out break <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea, cholera, skin
diseases including scabies, drowning, snake bite and even death. Cyclone, sea level rise and salinity intrusion
cause outbreaks <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea, cholera and other water borne diseases, use <strong>of</strong> saline water causes hypertension,
increase blood pressure, corrosive effects due to salt in air, scabies and other skin diseases. Besides that, drought,
erratic rainfall and temperature variation increase vector borne diseases, heat stroke, malnutrition, fever etc. Cold
wave creates respiratory problem, especially that <strong>of</strong> children and the old.
Strategies and actions suggested in the report to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> present and future <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> and related disasters are based on suggestions derived from different consultation workshops and key
experts’ interviews. Key principles considered in formulating strategies and actions were a) reduction <strong>of</strong> exposure
<strong>of</strong> income stream and production systems, b) reduction <strong>of</strong> sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the exposed systems, and c) increase
adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> vulnerable communities. Institutional and capacity building aspects to support
implementation <strong>of</strong> actions have also been considered. It was found that there is similarity <strong>of</strong> suggestions
mentioned here and in the national <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> strategy and action plan.
In order to address adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and reduction <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gas emission in the context
<strong>of</strong> poverty and national economic growth, a number <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>s have been suggested by different stakeholders
including <strong>change</strong>s in planning process while designing programs and projects by different ministries and
departments in the <strong>climate</strong> sensitive geographical region. <strong>The</strong>se include short, medium and long term
perspective <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, create enabling conditions to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> perspectives, ensure
participation <strong>of</strong> all relevant stakeholders particularly potential vulnerable communities to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
xv

General Economic Division being a focal point for developing medium and long term plans for Bangladesh and
facilitating key decision making process <strong>of</strong> the Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh, it needs to play an important role to
address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability in their planning process. In order to bring <strong>change</strong>s General
Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission has to improve its capability as well as facilitate other relevant
ministries and departments. <strong>The</strong> following are major areas for immediate attention and action has been
suggested.
Knowledge and Research
Encourage and motivate relevant sectoral ministries and department to enhance existing research and
initiate new research linking <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth;
Develop disaggregated database on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth to facilitate quantitative
analysis and assessment on inter-linkage among <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, poverty and economic growth
and designing different interventions to address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>;
Facilitate development <strong>of</strong> a comprehensive landuse and land zoning plan for proper utilization <strong>of</strong> land
resources to support poverty reduction and economic growth in a sustainable manner. <strong>The</strong> land zoning also
should incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as it will bring <strong>change</strong>s characteristics <strong>of</strong> physical environment; and
Support facilities for information gathering through scientific research, and made provision to support
activities addressing poverty, economic growth and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> together.
Capacity Building
General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission should setup a Climate Change Unit to enhance
GED’s knowledge base. It should also build awareness and capacity <strong>of</strong> staff <strong>of</strong> planning cell <strong>of</strong> every ministry
and department.
<strong>The</strong> proposed <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> unit must coordinate with all relevant government agencies at all levels,
including both vertical and horizontal while designing and implementing project;
GED should made provision for financial support to enhance technical capacity <strong>of</strong> other ministries and
departments to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in development and implementation <strong>of</strong> project.
Policy Issues
Initiating policy review toward incorporation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues in the policy, programme and project
development;
General Economic Division (GED) will give priority to the programme and project addressing poverty,
economic growth and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> together;
GED should facilitate/expedite extension <strong>of</strong> available research knowledge and good practices/technologies
addressing <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth together;
GED should emphasize agriculture friendly planning process by incorporating CC <strong>impacts</strong>
In order to address the above need, this study has recommended three immediate activities to understand the
issues related to inter-linkage among <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth and facilitate decision
making process. <strong>The</strong>se are a) enhance understanding and knowledge on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and development with
special focus on poverty and economic growth, b) quantitative analysis and assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
<strong>impacts</strong> on economic growth and poverty by regions and livelihood groups, and c) Capacity Enhancement <strong>of</strong>
Planning Cadre on Climate Change Issues.
xvi
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Responding to <strong>The</strong> Millennium Development Challenge through Private Sector’s Involvement in Bangladesh
Background

1. <strong>The</strong> Millennium Declaration <strong>of</strong> the United Nations was adopted in 2000 by all member states followed by a list
<strong>of</strong> eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were inclusive <strong>of</strong> 18 targets and 48 indicators. Bangladesh is
committed to achieve the MDGs within the stipulated timeframe, i.e. 2015. Following the adoption <strong>of</strong> the
Millennium Declaration, the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), the medium term budgetary framework and
the annual development plan were tuned with the MDGs’ targets. However, progress towards attainment <strong>of</strong> MDGs
has been mixed in Bangladesh. People living in the remote char and river erosion areas with little assets and
employment opportunities in the lean period are usual victims <strong>of</strong> extreme poverty. <strong>The</strong> progress in meeting MDGs
include reduction in gender disparity in primary and secondary schooling; reduction in proportion <strong>of</strong> population
below the national poverty line; promotion and implementation <strong>of</strong> minimum level <strong>of</strong> energy consumption; and,
achievement to a certain degree in reduction in incidences <strong>of</strong> communicable diseases and promoting safe drinking
water supply.
“Millennium Development Goals: <strong>The</strong> Mid-Term Bangladesh Progress Report-2007” has highlighted several
challenges in achieving the MDG targets. Overall, the target <strong>of</strong> achieving poverty reduction is on the track but the
major challenge is increasing the share <strong>of</strong> the poorest quintile in the national income. Statistics from 1991 to 2005
shows that share <strong>of</strong> the poorest quintile has decreased from 6.5 percent to 5.3 percent against the target to
increase 14.0 percent by 2015. Bangladesh has two risks in meeting the target - failing to sustain the present trend
<strong>of</strong> economic growth and the extreme groups might get lesser benefits from the economic growth. On the issue <strong>of</strong>
health, particularly to deal with Malaria, the country needs to develop strong mechanisms to monitor outbreak <strong>of</strong>
the disease in high-risk district(s) and to develop effective treatments for drug resistant malaria strains.
Simultaneously, increase in detection and cure rates, along with improvements in the quality <strong>of</strong> diagnostic services,
will pose a major challenge for the country.
1.1 Climate Change and Millennium Development Goals
<strong>The</strong> pattern and behaviour <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>, including variability and extreme events, play a significant role in freshwater
availability; in agriculture and its productivity; in the function <strong>of</strong> natural ecosystems and biodiversity; in influencing
human health; and in influencing the livelihood <strong>of</strong> the people dependent on the natural resource base. <strong>The</strong>se
characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> either create a favourable condition for a system to function better, or put risk on a system
and increase its vulnerability. <strong>The</strong>refore, economic growth, and the performance <strong>of</strong> a nation and society rely to a
large extent on the behaviour <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>.
Climate <strong>change</strong> is an environmental issue having significant implications on development, including achievement
<strong>of</strong> Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and its targets. <strong>The</strong> National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction
(2009-2011) has recognised <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as one <strong>of</strong> the emerging issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are
generally the most vulnerable to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> because they live in areas more prone to flooding, cyclones,
droughts etc., and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. <strong>The</strong>y are also more dependent on ecosystem services
and products for their livelihoods. Any impact that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has on natural systems therefore threatens the
livelihoods, food intake and health <strong>of</strong> poor people. Loss <strong>of</strong> employment and <strong>impacts</strong> on assets are likely to reduce
opportunities for education in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children may be
required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cyclone and storm
surges damage school facilities and educational materials. <strong>The</strong> following table provides linkage between
Millennium Development Goals and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Table 1.1 Linkages between Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change Vulnerability Context
Millennium
Development Goals
Goal 1: Eradicate
extreme poverty
and hunger
Climate Change Context
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Livelihood and income <strong>of</strong> a large population depends on the natural resource base and most <strong>of</strong>
the poor people <strong>of</strong>ten live in marginalized lands and areas more prone to natural disasters.
Climate <strong>change</strong> means that many natural disaster prone areas will become more prone due to
increased frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> disasters. Drought prone areas will become hotter and drier,
with less predictable rainfall; flood frequency and intensity along onset and recession will be
<strong>change</strong>d in future; nature <strong>of</strong> cyclone and storm surges will be different from the historical trend.
3

Goal 2: Achieve universal
primary education
Goal 3: Promotegender
equality and empower
women
Goals 4, 5 and 6: Health
related issues
Goal 7:
Ensureenvironmental
sustainability
Source: Modified from Reid H and Alam M, 2005
1.2 Climate and Climate Change in Bangladesh
<strong>The</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is influenced by monsoon <strong>climate</strong> and characterized by high temperature, heavy
rainfall, <strong>of</strong>ten-excessive humidity and marked seasonal variations. Although more than half the area is north <strong>of</strong> the
Tropics, the effect <strong>of</strong> the Himalayan mountain chain is such as to make the <strong>climate</strong> more or less tropical throughout
the year. <strong>The</strong> <strong>climate</strong> is controlled primarily by summer and winter winds, and partly by pre-monsoon (March to
May) and post-monsoon (late October to November) circulation. <strong>The</strong> Southwest Monsoon originates over the
Indian Ocean, and carries warm, moist and unstable air. <strong>The</strong> easterly Trade Winds are also warm, but relatively drier.
<strong>The</strong> Northeast Monsoon comes from the Siberian Desert, retaining most <strong>of</strong> its pristine cold, and blows over the
country, usually in gusts, during dry winter months.
Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related extreme events and natural disasters. It is
expected that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will bring <strong>change</strong>s in characteristics <strong>of</strong> natural hazards and gradual <strong>change</strong>s
phenomenon <strong>of</strong> the physical system. Studies and assessments <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerabilities and adaptation to <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> and sea level rise for Bangladesh clearly demonstrates that Bangladesh is one <strong>of</strong> the most <strong>climate</strong>
vulnerable countries in the world. <strong>The</strong> Fourth Assessment Report <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), for South Asia, predicts that monsoon rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during
monsoon season in the river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters
which will lead to salinity intrusion and coastal flooding. Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic.
Frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> natural disasters are likely to increase especially in the northern and western part <strong>of</strong>
the country.
4
All <strong>of</strong> these together will <strong>change</strong> crop yields and affect many poor people’s livelihoods. For
example, 2007 floods inundated 32,000 sq. km in area that destroyed over 85,000 houses and
approximately 1.2 million acres <strong>of</strong> crops were destroyed or partially damaged. Total estimated
loss in terms <strong>of</strong> dollar was over $1 billion.
It is likely that natural disasters will damage more houses and will cause temporary migration. It
may also require children to help more with household works leaving less time for schooling.
Malnourishment and diseases also impair learning. Extreme <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related disasters
threaten school buildings and educational materials. For example, cyclone Sidr caused huge
damage to school buildings and wiped out teaching materials.
Adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> are likely to reduce availability and deteriorate quality <strong>of</strong>
water for domestic use. Fetching water for domestic use, for which women are usually
responsible are likely to bear disproportionate hardship when provision <strong>of</strong> these vital
necessities becomes difficult.
Direct <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effects include increases in mortality and illness associated with heat waves,
particularly amongst the elderly and the urban poor. Women and children are particularly vulnerable
to extreme weather events. For example, when the 1991 cyclone hit Bangladesh, 90 percent <strong>of</strong> victims
were women and children.
Climate <strong>change</strong> is likely to increase the prevalence and infection <strong>of</strong> vector and water-borne diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever, cholera and dysentery etc, Children and pregnant women are
particularly susceptible to such diseases.
Climate <strong>change</strong> will probably cause a decline in the quantity and quality <strong>of</strong> drinking water, which is a
prerequisite for good health. Malnutrition, main cause <strong>of</strong> ill health among children, could also be
exacerbated due to declining natural resource productivity and inadequate supply <strong>of</strong> food insecurity.
Changes in temperature and rainfall distribution, and sea level rise and salinity intrusion are
likely to <strong>change</strong> ecosystem characteristics and shift ecosystem boundaries. Climate <strong>change</strong>
also poses a greater survival threat than the destruction <strong>of</strong> many natural habitats including
coral reefs. Degradation <strong>of</strong> biodiversity will reduce the availability <strong>of</strong> many traditional
medicines which may affect poor and rural people who depend more on natural resources
for medicine as well as income and food.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Several early evidences <strong>of</strong> the above phenomenon and its associated <strong>impacts</strong> in the agriculture system are already
visible in Bangladesh. Erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature, occurrence <strong>of</strong> extreme weather events and
salinity intrusion are key indication <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>s in the climatic system. Impacts <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>s in the climatic system on
production and human system are also being noticed in Bangladesh. Among the different production system,
agriculture will face significant adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> due to <strong>change</strong>s in hydrological regime which
will be influenced by temperature, monsoon rainfall and regional water flow, and extreme weather events. More
water in monsoon season will cause floods and low water flow and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall will result in intense
and frequent drought.
<strong>The</strong> major environmental issues identified and addressed in the Fifth Five Year Plan are natural disasters, industrial
pollution, health and sanitation, deforestation, desertification, <strong>change</strong>s in climatic condition, increased intensity <strong>of</strong>
droughts, severity <strong>of</strong> floods, increased salinity/tidal surge or water stagnancy and deteriorating habitat <strong>of</strong> flora and
fauna. Since the Fifth Five Year Plan, there had been no other national development plan. But the government has
prepared a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) which has more or less reiterated the same concerns in various
forms within the document apart from a separate chapter on environment which includes resource management,
environmental health, biodiversity and multilateral environmental agreements including those related to <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has prepared the second Poverty Reduction Strategy for the country and
adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is being considered as one <strong>of</strong> the key challenges in achieving different targets
including Millennium Development Goals.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
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<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
<strong>The</strong> Study

2. <strong>The</strong> United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is undertaking a project “Support to Monitoring Poverty
Reduction Strategies and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Bangladesh” to enhance the institutional
capacity <strong>of</strong> the government’s General Economic Division (GED) as the National Poverty Focal Point. Enhancement
<strong>of</strong> institutional capacity includes skills and technical know how <strong>of</strong> its <strong>of</strong>ficials that would enable them to respond to
the planning perspectives <strong>of</strong> the dynamically evolving socio-economic circumstances in the country as well as
emerging challenges <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Under this project, Planning Commission under the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Planning is
carrying out a research project on “<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with Adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh.” Bangladesh Centre for Advanced
Studies (BCAS) has been awarded this research project and signed a Memorandum <strong>of</strong> Understanding (MoU) in May,
2008 with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
2.1 Objectives <strong>of</strong> the Project
<strong>The</strong> overall objective <strong>of</strong> the project is to enhance institutional capacity <strong>of</strong> the General Economic Division to
respond to the planning perspectives <strong>of</strong> the dynamically evolving socio-economic circumstances under changing
<strong>climate</strong>. <strong>The</strong> specific objectives are;
Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on MDGs with special focus on Poverty and Hunger, and
Economic Growth and formulate a strategy to deal with adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in Bangladesh;
Equip the General Economic Division with technical know-how and policy choices to respond on planning
perspective related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues <strong>of</strong> the country;
Enhance understanding and knowledge on <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty (income and social) and
economic growth (overall GDP and sectoral contribution);
Develop a strategy to cope with adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> (adaptation and mitigation strategy which will
include options, policy choices, institutional capacity needs for mainstreaming adaptation at national and sectoral
level, and capacity strengthening <strong>of</strong> GED to facilitate sectoral integration).
2.2 Scope <strong>of</strong> Work
<strong>The</strong> research has developed conceptual framework for understanding the linkages between <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
<strong>impacts</strong> & vulnerability and economic growth particularly poverty reduction and other Millennium Development
Goals. <strong>The</strong> study has focused and analyzed the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic growth and poverty by
analyzing <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors. <strong>The</strong> sectors include agriculture and land resources, water resources, health
and sanitation, housing, industry and infrastructure.
Based on the conceptual framework and analyzing available literature on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty including
PRSP and MDGs, strategies have been developed to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> which will
enhance the adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the vulnerable sectors and communities. This strategy document includes policy
and advocacy tools which will help to enhance capacity <strong>of</strong> the personnel <strong>of</strong> GED to address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues
and <strong>impacts</strong> in their planning process. <strong>The</strong> specific scope <strong>of</strong> work is given below.
Development <strong>of</strong> a conceptual framework and methodology for assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
on MDGs with special focus on Poverty and Hunger, and Economic Growth;
Carryout analysis <strong>of</strong> collected data and information using the conceptual framework and methodology;
Capture expert knowledge and understanding on <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on different Millennium
Development Goals, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> economic growth and strategies with different actions to deal with these <strong>impacts</strong>;
Formulate a strategy to deal with adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in Bangladesh which will enhance capacity <strong>of</strong>
the General Economic Division with technical know how and policy choices to respond on planning perspective
related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues <strong>of</strong> the country.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
9

<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Conceptual Framework
Methodology and Tools

3. This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative approaches and used primary and secondary data
and information. Understanding the relationship between <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty was one <strong>of</strong> the key thinking
processes and activities which has been carried out through analyzing available poverty related data and
information; information on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, vulnerability and its <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors; statistics <strong>of</strong> economic
growth; review available policies and strategies including National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction,
Millennium Development Goals and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. Based on these
analyses, this final report contains policy, and strategy needed to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in
the context <strong>of</strong> poverty and economic growth, and possible role <strong>of</strong> General Economic Division. This report has been
shared with relevant stakeholders through workshops and suggestions have been incorporated in the final report.
<strong>The</strong> conceptual framework, approach and methodology, and analytical tools used to undertake this research are
described below:
3.1 Conceptual Framework: Understanding and Framing Linkage between Poverty and Climate Change
Understanding and framing linkages between adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty including other
relevant Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is one <strong>of</strong> the key issues to General Economic Division (GED) for
addressing <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and facilitate integration in implementation process <strong>of</strong> the PRSP and the MDGs. In
order to understand the linkage and multi-dimensional aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty along with
economic growth, this study used a framework to capture different elements. This framework suggested three
key elements i.e. a) understand different aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, b) <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> by region and by sectors with special focus on diverse livelihood options <strong>of</strong> the people, and c) link with
economic growth and poverty reduction. <strong>The</strong> framework guided analysis <strong>of</strong> both quantitative and qualitative
data and information related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and poverty. An elaboration <strong>of</strong> different elements <strong>of</strong> the
conceptual framework is given below.
3.1.1 Climate Change
A review and assessment has been carried out to understand <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> science, climatic trend and variability,
and extreme events. <strong>The</strong>se include <strong>change</strong>s in trend <strong>of</strong> temperature and rainfall, salinity intrusion, erratic behaviour
<strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature, and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related extreme events such as flood, drought, cyclone and storm
surges. <strong>The</strong> review and assessment were done based on available literature and studies on <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerability
and adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> for Bangladesh including IPCC reports. A summary <strong>of</strong> observed <strong>change</strong>s in the
climatic system and future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios is given in section 5 which helps to understand and assess
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> these <strong>change</strong>s on different sectors supporting economic growth and livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the people.
3.1.2 Impacts and Vulnerability
Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on different sectors and by geographical region is the
second element <strong>of</strong> the conceptual framework. Assessment has been done for agriculture including fisheries and
livestock, water resources, human settlement, health, infrastructure, industries, and education. This assessment
has been done through collection and review <strong>of</strong> secondary data and literature, and collection <strong>of</strong> inputs from
experts in the relevant field. <strong>The</strong> vulnerability component includes both physical and social vulnerability. <strong>The</strong>
social <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability focus on dependency <strong>of</strong> the people on different sectors and how those sectors
are impacted due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> including extreme events.
3.1.3 Review <strong>of</strong> PRSP and MDGs in the Context <strong>of</strong> Climate Change
PRSP and MDGs has been reviewed to understand the status <strong>of</strong> poverty and hunger, education, health and
environmental sustainability in the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> review has focused on adverse effects on
different strategies and goals <strong>of</strong> PRSP and MDGs against different <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> contexts such as erratic rainfall
and temperature, drought, flood, cyclone, salinity, etc. Different government and non-government projects
related to poverty reduction, promotion <strong>of</strong> education, health and environment have also been reviewed in the
context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> review result has been used to understand the links and gaps <strong>of</strong> PRSP and MDGs
in terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
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One <strong>of</strong> the critical issues <strong>of</strong> the conceptual framework is that all aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will not equally affect
a sector. <strong>The</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> will vary by space and time and hence the <strong>impacts</strong> on livelihood will eventually vary. Figure
3.1 provides schematic representation <strong>of</strong> strength <strong>of</strong> relationship <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> aspects and their <strong>impacts</strong> on
sectors and social development aspects.
Figure 3.1 Strength <strong>of</strong> Relationship <strong>of</strong> Climatic Signal and their Impacts <strong>of</strong> Sectors and Social
Development
3.2 Strategy to Deal with Adverse Effects <strong>of</strong> Climate Change
Various strategies suggested in this study to deal with adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> were based on several
strategies and action plans already formulated by different ministries <strong>of</strong> the government as well as suggestions
and recommendations derived through different consultation processes. <strong>The</strong> study team collected available
strategy documents related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and analyzed those to understand different types <strong>of</strong> measures to
address the adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong>se analyses have focused on reduction <strong>of</strong> exposure and
sensitivity and enhancement <strong>of</strong> adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> vulnerable communities and sectors for short, medium and
long term perspectives.
3.2.1 Reduction <strong>of</strong> Exposure and Sensitivity
Most <strong>of</strong> the sectors are more or less exposed to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> stimuli including variability and extremes, and <strong>of</strong>
different degrees <strong>of</strong> sensitivity. Temperature and rainfall are the two key elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> which have direct
<strong>impacts</strong> on agriculture, human health, infrastructure etc. This framework considered sector-wise vulnerability to
specific climatic element and at what level which contributed to develop appropriate strategies for reducing
level <strong>of</strong> exposure and sensitivity.
3.2.2 Enhance Adaptive Capacity <strong>of</strong> Vulnerable Sectors and Communities
<strong>The</strong> study also suggested strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the vulnerable sectors and
communities. Vulnerable sectors as well as communities identified from the secondary sources as well as
suggestions and recommendations derived through consultation that help in developing different strategies to
reduce vulnerabilities <strong>of</strong> communities. This includes different income generating options and <strong>probable</strong>
adaptation activities. <strong>The</strong> following figure shows overall framework for analyzing the situation for development
<strong>of</strong> strategies for adaptation.
14
Climate Change Signal
Hydrology
(e.g. Floods &
Droughts)
Extreme Events
(e.g. Cyclone
& Storm Surges)
Source: Modified from Saleem et al., 2006
Temperature
(e.g. heat
waves)
Impacts on Sectors
Social Development
(Poverty Alleviation/MDGs)
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Figure 3.2 Linkage and Formulation <strong>of</strong> Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation
Source: IPCC
Human interference
MITIGATION
<strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> via
GHG sources and sinks
3.3 Analytical Methods and Tools
Different analytical tools and methods are used for assessing the <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty
and economic growth. Both qualitative and quantitative methods, statistical tools, and Geographic Information
System (GIS) have been used to analyse poverty and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related data and information. <strong>The</strong> following
section provides a summary <strong>of</strong> different approaches and methods employed in this study.
3.3.1 Assessment <strong>of</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth
3.3.1.1 Analysis <strong>of</strong> Poverty Database
Analysis <strong>of</strong> poverty data includes compilation <strong>of</strong> poverty database by region and dependency <strong>of</strong> household on
different sectors as primary source <strong>of</strong> income. <strong>The</strong> primary source <strong>of</strong> income has been used as indicator <strong>of</strong> main
livelihood. Data and information have been collected from secondary sources which include Bangladesh Bureau
<strong>of</strong> Statistics (BBS) for poverty and economic growth. Other sources are FAO, UNDP General Economic Division etc.
<strong>The</strong> team members visited these organizations for collecting data and information on poverty and economic
growth. <strong>The</strong> General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission has been visited for collection <strong>of</strong> data on
economic growth, PRSP and poverty related data and information. <strong>The</strong> collected data has been analyzed to
understand the trend <strong>of</strong> poverty and economic growth and linked with trend <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> for future
planning. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used to analyze data in the special context and
presentation <strong>of</strong> analytical information through maps.
3.3.1.2 Assessment <strong>of</strong> Impacts on Key Sectors and by Regions
While assessing <strong>climate</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors and society it is necessary to keep in mind that it will not
affect all the sectors and regions equally as mentioned in the conceptual framework. <strong>The</strong>refore, the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on different sectors and by regions have been assessed using GIS and statistical package. <strong>The</strong>
IPCC reports, UNDP country study reports, National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action (NAPA) and other relevant
study reports have been reviewed and assessed during this assessment as well. One <strong>of</strong> the critical issues is
harmonization <strong>of</strong> time dimension <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> and target <strong>of</strong> poverty reduction and Millennium
Development Goals. This has been done by simple down scaling thought dividing level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> by time to match with poverty target and Millennium Development Goals.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
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I M P A C T S
CLIMATE CHANGE
including variability
Exposure,
Sensitivity
Initial Impacts
or Effects
Autonomous
Adjustments
Residual or
Net Impacts
Policy responses
V U L N E R A B I L I T I E S
Planned
ADAPTATION
to the <strong>impacts</strong> and
vulnerabilities
15

3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts
Interview with key experts have been carried out using a check list covering the two major categories <strong>of</strong>
information i.e. a) <strong>impacts</strong> related and b) response related. <strong>The</strong> interview with key experts focus on linkage
among sectoral <strong>impacts</strong>, poverty, strategy to address adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty and GDP,
institutional capacity building needs and arrangement. List <strong>of</strong> Experts interviewed is given in Annex-A.
3.3.1.4 Workshops
Two workshops have been organized to capture expert opinions on several aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty
and economic growth. Key questions addressed in the consultation workshops are a) what are the existing
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>? b) what are the existing coping strategies and practices? c) what are the <strong>probable</strong>
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>? d) what are the <strong>probable</strong> coping strategies and practices? e) what are the
<strong>change</strong>s we have to bring into planning process to address CC? f ) what role GED (Planning Commission) needs
to play in the process? Experts included from government organizations, non-government organizations,
academics and civil society groups with relevant experiences and expertise.
3.3.2 Formulation <strong>of</strong> Strategies and Policy Choices
3.3.2.1 Formulation <strong>of</strong> Draft Strategies and Policy Choices
Based on the above analysis, this report suggested strategies and policy choices to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> giving special focus on Poverty and Other Millennium Development Goals. Strategy and policy
choices have been developed based on secondary information, outcome <strong>of</strong> the interview with key experts and
findings <strong>of</strong> the workshop. <strong>The</strong>se strategies are categorised under three broader categories a) means <strong>of</strong> reduction
<strong>of</strong> exposure, b) means <strong>of</strong> reduction <strong>of</strong> sensitivity, and c) means <strong>of</strong> enhancement <strong>of</strong> adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the
communities. Findings <strong>of</strong> the analysis, interviews and workshop have been compiled in this draft report.
3.3.2.2 Workshop and Finalization <strong>of</strong> Strategies
A workshop was organized by the General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission where the draft report
was presented. <strong>The</strong> final report has incorporated suggestions and recommendations <strong>of</strong> the workshop.
16
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Climate Change, Impacts and
vulnerability – Global and
Regional Context

4.1 Climate Change - Global Context
<strong>The</strong> Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had unequivocally
confirmed the warming <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> system and linked it directly to human activity. <strong>The</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> warming were
already grave and they were growing. <strong>The</strong> global average surface temperature has already increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years; sea level rose at an average rate <strong>of</strong> 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003; mountain glaciers
and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres; eleven <strong>of</strong> the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank
among the 12 warmest years. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause
further warming and induce many <strong>change</strong>s in the global climatic system during the 21st century that would very
likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
<strong>The</strong> AR4 stated that for the next two decades, a warming <strong>of</strong> about 0.2˚C per decade is projected for a range <strong>of</strong>
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Even if the concentrations <strong>of</strong> all greenhouse gases and aerosols had
been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming <strong>of</strong> about 0.1˚C per decade would be expected.
Expected <strong>change</strong>s in global mean temperature is likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4˚C from 1990 to 2100 while water
availability will increase in moist tropics and high latitudes and decrease in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low
latitudes. Sea levels are likely to rise in the range <strong>of</strong> 22-34 cm between 1990 and the 2080s. Future tropical
cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavy
precipitation.
4.1.1 Impacted Sectors: Freshwater Resources
<strong>The</strong> Fourth Assessment Report <strong>of</strong> the IPCC projected that by mid-century, annual average river run<strong>of</strong>f and water
availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by
10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some <strong>of</strong> which are presently water-stressed
areas. Drought-affected areas are likely to increase to a considerable extent. Heavy precipitation events, which
are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. In the course <strong>of</strong> this century, water supplies stored
in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by melt water
from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth <strong>of</strong> the world population currently lives.
4.1.2 Ecosystem
<strong>The</strong> resilience <strong>of</strong> many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded by this century by an unprecedented combination <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, associated with disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and
other global <strong>change</strong> drivers (e.g., land use <strong>change</strong>, pollution, over-exploitation <strong>of</strong> resources). Approximately 20-
30% <strong>of</strong> plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk <strong>of</strong> extinction if increases in
global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5˚C. For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5-2.5˚C
and in concomitant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, there are projected to be major <strong>change</strong>s in the
ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographical ranges, with
predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services e.g., water and food
supply. <strong>The</strong> progressive acidification <strong>of</strong> oceans due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to have
negative <strong>impacts</strong> on marine shell-forming organisms (e.g., corals) and their dependent species.
4.1.3 Food, Fibre & Forest Product
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases
<strong>of</strong> up to 1-3˚C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions. At lower latitudes,
especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local
temperature increases (1-2˚C), which would increase the risk <strong>of</strong> hunger. Globally, the potential for food
production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range <strong>of</strong> 1-3˚C, but above
this it is projected to decrease. Increase in the frequency <strong>of</strong> droughts and floods is projected to affect local crop
production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.
Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature
over a range <strong>of</strong> 1-3˚C, but above this it is projected to decrease. Regional <strong>change</strong>s in the distribution and
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production <strong>of</strong> particular fish species are expected due to continued warming, with adverse effects projected for
aquaculture and fisheries. <strong>The</strong> important challenge would be access to and distribution <strong>of</strong> food.
4.1.4 Coastal & Low Lying Areas
Coastal systems and low-lying areas are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion,
due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and sea-level rise. Many million more people are projected to be flooded every year due
to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively
low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at
risk. <strong>The</strong> numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas <strong>of</strong> Asia and Africa while small islands are especially
vulnerable. Adaptation for coasts will be more challenging in developing countries than in developed countries,
due to constraints on adaptive capacity.
4.1.5 Industry and Human Settlement
Industry, settlement and society: costs and benefits <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> for industry, settlement and society will
vary widely by location and scale. In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger
the <strong>change</strong> in <strong>climate</strong>. <strong>The</strong> most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal
and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with <strong>climate</strong>-sensitive resources, and those in
areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. Poor communities can
be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas. <strong>The</strong>y tend to have more limited
adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on <strong>climate</strong>-sensitive resources such as local water and food
supplies.
4.1.6 Health and Nutrition
Projected <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>-related exposures are likely to affect the health status <strong>of</strong> millions <strong>of</strong> people, particularly
those with low adaptive capacity, through increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications
for child growth and development; increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat-waves, floods, storms, fires
and droughts; the increased burden <strong>of</strong> diarrhoeal disease; the increased frequency <strong>of</strong> cardio-respiratory diseases
due to higher concentrations <strong>of</strong> ground-level ozone related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>; and, the altered spatial
distribution <strong>of</strong> some infectious disease vectors.
By 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate waterrelated
problems. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is
projected to be severely compromised by <strong>climate</strong> variability and <strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> area suitable for agriculture, the
length <strong>of</strong> growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins <strong>of</strong> semi-arid and arid areas, are
expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the
continent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.
Towards the end <strong>of</strong> the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large
populations. <strong>The</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> adaptation could amount to at least 5-10% <strong>of</strong> Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Glacier
melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and to
affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the
glaciers recede.
4.2 Climate Change - Regional Context
<strong>The</strong> Fourth Assessment Report <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for South Asia, predicts
that monsoon rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during monsoon season in the river system. It has
also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to salinity intrusion and
coastal flooding.
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and
to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as
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the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river
basins, is projected to decrease due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> which, along with population growth and increasing
demand arising from higher standards <strong>of</strong> living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s.
Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega delta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at
greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some mega deltas, flooding from the rivers. Climate
<strong>change</strong> is projected to impinge on the sustainable development <strong>of</strong> most developing countries <strong>of</strong> Asia, as it
compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation,
industrialisation, and economic development.
It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia while they could decrease up
to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence <strong>of</strong> rapid
population growth and urbanisation, the risk <strong>of</strong> hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing
countries.
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are
expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected <strong>change</strong>s in the hydrological cycle associated
with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity <strong>of</strong>
cholera in South Asia.
Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates ranging from 10 to 60m per year and many small glaciers (

<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
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Climate Change – Bangladesh

5. Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many gradual <strong>change</strong> phenomena <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as well as <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> related extreme events. It is expected that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will bring <strong>change</strong>s in characteristics <strong>of</strong> gradual
<strong>change</strong> phenomenon and natural hazards which will result <strong>change</strong>s in physical, social and production system.
Studies and assessments on <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerabilities and adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and sea level rise for
Bangladesh clearly demonstrate that Bangladesh is one <strong>of</strong> the most <strong>climate</strong> vulnerable countries in the world.
Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic. Frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> natural disasters are likely to
increase especially in the northern and western part <strong>of</strong> the country. Several early evidences <strong>of</strong> the above
phenomenon and its associated <strong>impacts</strong> in the agriculture, health, water and sanitation, biodiversity are already
visible in Bangladesh.
Overall <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on Bangladesh would be significant. It is estimated that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> could
affect more that 70 million people <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh due to its geographic location, low elevation, high population
density, poor infrastructure, high levels <strong>of</strong> poverty and high dependency on natural resources1 . It was found that
the population living in the coastal area is more vulnerable than the population in other areas (Alam and Laurel,
2005). Coastal resources upon which the most people depend are likely to be affected severally due to <strong>climate</strong>
variability and <strong>change</strong>2 . It is predicted that for 45 cm rise <strong>of</strong> sea level may inundate 10-15% <strong>of</strong> the land by the
year 2050 resulting over 35 million <strong>climate</strong> refugees from the coastal districts3 . Ultimately adverse <strong>impacts</strong> have
the potential to undermine poverty reduction efforts and could compromise the Millennium Development goals
(MDGs), such as the eradication <strong>of</strong> poverty and hunger by 2015. <strong>The</strong> OECD and World Bank also estimated that
40% <strong>of</strong> the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to Bangladesh may be <strong>climate</strong> sensitive or at risk.
It is also revealed from the studies and assessments that the context <strong>of</strong> vulnerabilities and associated <strong>impacts</strong>
vary by spatial, temporal scale and socio-economic condition <strong>of</strong> communities, resulting need for different
adaptation measures and actions. Coastal area <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to salinity intrusion and tropical cyclone;
floodplains in the central areas are prone to flood; north western region <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to drought; north
eastern part <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to flash flood; and hilly region <strong>of</strong> the country is prone to erosion and
landslide. Water resources and agriculture reported to be most impacted sectors due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Recognition <strong>of</strong> adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic development, life and livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor
and ultimately impeding Millennium Development Goals has pushed urgent need for adaptation to deal with
unavoidable <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> stimuli including variability and extreme events in Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong> Ministry <strong>of</strong>
Environment and Forests, Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has prepared Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and
Action Plan 2008 as a living document and has allocated about US$ 43 million. <strong>The</strong> development partners in
Bangladesh and the Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh have also agreed to setup a Multi-donor Trust Fund (MTF) to
deal with Climate Change adaptation and mitigation.
5.1 Climate Change Studies Bangladesh
Over the last decade several studies have been conducted on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerability and
adaptation assessments for Bangladesh using different <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios. Most <strong>of</strong> the studies focus on
water, agriculture, biodiversity, human health, and infrastructure (BCAS et al., 1994; Huq et al., 1999; World Bank,
2000; ADB, 1994; MOEF, 2000). Recently several studies have been conducted at sub-national/geographical subregion
scale as well as on different sectors with special focus on coastal zone and agriculture sector (IWM and
CEGIS, 2007; BCAS, 2007; CEGIS, 2006; CNRS, 2007). In 2005, Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environment and Forests has formulated
National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action (NAPA) (MOEF, 2005) to address immediate and urgent needs to deal
with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Very recently the Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has prepared Climate Change Strategy and
Action Plan 2008 to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> which includes six thematic areas and 37
programmes. <strong>The</strong> thematic area includes a) food security, social protection and health, b) comprehensive disaster
management, c) infrastructure, d) research and knowledge management, e) mitigation and low carbon
management, and f ) capacity building and institutional strengthening (GoB, 2008). <strong>The</strong> following sections
1
UN Human Development Report 2007/'08
2
OECD, 2003
3
Climate Change Cell, DoE, Bangladesh
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provide a) summary <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios including regional variation and variation between global and
regional models, b) <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors including water, agriculture and health.
5.2 Present and Future Scenario <strong>of</strong> Climate
5.2.1 Observed Changes
5.2.1.1 Temperature
<strong>The</strong> observed climatic data from 1971 to 2002 indicate that the temperature is generally increasing in the
monsoon season (June, July and August). <strong>The</strong> average monsoon maximum and minimum temperatures show an
increasing trend annually at 0.05˚C and 0.03˚C, respectively. Average winter season (December, January and
February) maximum and minimum temperature show respectively a decreasing and an increasing trend annually
at 0.001˚C and 0.016˚C (Rahman Alam: 2003). It is also revealed that 1998 was the warmest year in the last 30 years.
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) has studied surface climatological data on monthly and annual
mean maximum and minimum temperature, and monthly and annual rainfall for the period <strong>of</strong> 1961-90. <strong>The</strong>
study showed an increasing trend <strong>of</strong> mean maximum and minimum temperature in some seasons and
decreasing trend in some others. Overall trend <strong>of</strong> the annual mean maximum temperature has shown a
significant increase over the period <strong>of</strong> 1961-90. Regional variations have been observed around the average
trend (SMRC, 2003).
Bogra and Rangpur are two among other meteorological stations in the northwest region <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh.
Observed data <strong>of</strong> the Bogra Station from 1971 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum
temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.008˚C and 0.003˚C, respectively. However, rate <strong>of</strong>
<strong>change</strong> in the monsoon season is higher than annual rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>. In monsoon season (June, July and August),
average maximum and minimum temperature show an increasing trend annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.033˚C and
0.014˚C, respectively which means monsoon season is becoming warmer. On the other hand average maximum
temperature in winter season (December, January and February) shows almost no <strong>change</strong> while minimum
temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.035˚C which means winter is also becoming
warmer.
Observed data <strong>of</strong> the Rangpur Station from 1978 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum
temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.035˚C and 0.027˚C, respectively. However, rate <strong>of</strong>
<strong>change</strong> <strong>of</strong> maximum temperature in the monsoon season is slightly lower than annual rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>. In
monsoon season (June, July and August), average maximum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at
the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.02˚C while <strong>change</strong>s in minimum temperature in the monsoon season is insignificant. On the other
hand average maximum temperature in winter season (December, January and February) shows an increasing
trend annually at the rate <strong>of</strong> 0.041˚C while minimum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate
<strong>of</strong> 0.026˚C which reflects winter is also becoming warmer.
5.2.1.2 Rainfall
<strong>The</strong> mean annual rainfall <strong>of</strong> the country is about 2300mm, but there exists a wide spatial and temporal
distribution. Annual rainfall ranges from 1200mm in the extreme west to over 5000mm in the east and northeast
(MPO, 1991). It is 1220 mm in the north-western part, 1490mm in the central part, 3380mm in the coastal
areas, and over 5000mm in the north-eastern part - across the borders from Cherapunji and Mawsyriem, two <strong>of</strong>
the rainiest places in the world (Rashid, 1991). Possible connections with El Nino have only now begun to attract
attention as a major possible influence on climatic patterns in the Sub-continent.
It was observed that during the last monsoon (2006) there was lower rainfall and that resulted in reduction <strong>of</strong>
Aman crop production <strong>of</strong> about 25-30% (Karim, 2006). <strong>The</strong> most remarkable <strong>change</strong> <strong>of</strong> rainfall is the <strong>change</strong> in
duration <strong>of</strong> rainy season. Bangladesh NAPA states that the duration <strong>of</strong> rainy season has been decreased but the
total annual rainfall remains more or less same. It means that heavy rainfall is occurred within short period. This
behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall mostly affects agriculture sector and other livelihood systems.
It is found from rainfall data in Bogra that the annual average rainfall is 1834 mm <strong>of</strong> which 1024 mm rain occurs
26
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during the month <strong>of</strong> June, July and August. On the other hand annual average rainfall for Rangpur is 2270 mm <strong>of</strong>
which 1294 mm occurs during the month <strong>of</strong> June, July and August.
It is found from the analysis that number <strong>of</strong> days without rainfall in Bogra station is showing an increasing trend
while total annual rainfall is showing decreasing trend. It is also to be noted that the <strong>change</strong> is not significant and
relationship is not very strong. It is found from the analysis that both number <strong>of</strong> days without rainfall and annual
total rainfall in Rangpur is increasing, which means more rain is occurring in short duration. It also reflects erratic
behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall. It is also to be noted that the <strong>change</strong> is not significant and relationship is not very strong.
Figure 3.2 shows <strong>change</strong>s in annual rainfall and days without rainfall with their trend in Rangpur Station.
Figure 5.1 Change in Trend <strong>of</strong> Annual Rainfall and Days-without Rain (Rangpur Station)
Days without Rainfall
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
1972
1973
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario
General Circulation Model (GCM) and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) have been run to
develop future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios for Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong> GCM is a global scale model where PRECIS is a
regional scale model. Both models output indicate a steady increase in temperatures along with increased trend
<strong>of</strong> summer monsoon precipitation with higher level <strong>of</strong> inter seasonal variability. Global Circulation Model (GCM)
predicts an average temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 1.0ºC by 2030, 1.4ºC by 2050 and 2.4ºC by 2100. <strong>The</strong> results also
revealed somewhat more warming during the winter months than during the summer. GCM also estimates that
precipitation will increase between 6 to 12% during monsoon months (June, July and August) in 2030 and 2100
respectively while small decreases in the winter months (December, January and February) also predicts.
However, value <strong>of</strong> standard deviation from mean suggests that <strong>change</strong>s are not statistically significant (Agrawala
et al., 2003).
<strong>The</strong> PREICS model result shows that temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall vary over space and
time. Value <strong>of</strong> some months is much higher than the season or annual average. Annual average <strong>of</strong> maximum
temperature show an increasing trend but shows that increase over time will decline while minimum
temperature shows gradual increase over time. Projection shows that rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon
seasons will increase while rainfall in the dry season will remain closer to historical amount. Rainfall in premonsoon
shows erratic nature. It predicts that rainfall will increase about 4, 2.3 and 6.7 percent in 2030, 2050 and
2070 respectively in reference to the observed baseline period 1961-1990 (BUET, 2008). Table 5.1 shows summary
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1980
y = 0.4483x + 247.86
R 2 = 0.0282
y = 12.565x + 2067.6
R 2 = 0.041
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Days without Rain Annual Total
Linear (Annual Total) Linear (Days without Rain)
2001
2002
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Rainfall in mm
27

<strong>of</strong> future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario generated by using GCM and PRECIS models while Table 5.2 shows <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> scenario <strong>of</strong> different seasons and geographical regions <strong>of</strong> the country.
Table 5.1 Climate Change Scenario for Bangladesh
Model Year
Source: MoEF, 2005, BUET, 2008 Note: * JJAS
Table 5.2 Climate <strong>change</strong> scenarios <strong>of</strong> different seasons and geographical region <strong>of</strong> the country
Source: BUET, 2008
28
Temperature
<strong>change</strong> (˚C) Mean
(standard deviation)
GCM 2030 1.0 1.1
PRECIS
2030
(Max)
Precipitation
<strong>change</strong> (%) Mean
(standard deviation)
Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA
0.3- 0.02
0.8 5 -2 6
1.3*
2030
(Min) 1.18 0.65 1.78*
4 -8.7 3.8
GCM 2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 -5 8
PRECIS
Rainfall
Change (%)
Maximum
Temperature
Change (C)
Minimum
Temperature
Change (C)
2050
(Max) 0.2 0.07 0.89*
2050
(Min)
1.24 0.59 1.65*
2.3 -4.7 3.0
Sea
Level
Rise
(cm)
DJF MAM
2030
JJAS ON Ann
NE -9.6 9.0 4.2 24.6 7.0
SE -5.3 3.3 -3.3 14.3 2.3
NW -17.9 2.0 27.0 4.6 3.9
SW -3.6 -2.9 -5.5 19.8 2.0
BD -8.7 4.1 3.8 16.6 4.0
NE 0.22 -0.05 -0.26 -0.33 -0.10
SE 0.10 0.56 0.70 -0.59 0.30
NW -0.31 0.03 0.16 -0.26 -0.06
SW -012 0.09 0.30 -0.90 -0.0 6
BD -0.03 0.16 0.23 -0.52 0.02
NE 0.20 0.69 0.48 0.13 0.40
SE 0.27 0.41 0.78 -0.46 0.35
NW 0.06 0.42 0.69 0.20 0.38
SW 0.01 0.40 0.62 0.33 0.36
BD 0.13 0.48 0.64 0.05 0.37
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14
32

5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salinity Intrusion
Change in the sea level at local level depends on several factors and therefore future sea level rise projected in
the assessment report <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will not be uniform all over
world. One <strong>of</strong> the critical factors related to Bangladesh coast is vertical land movement (subsidence/uplift).
Seasonal variation <strong>of</strong> salinity intrusion also depends on freshwater flow in the river system and cyclonic storm
surges.
<strong>The</strong> SAARC Meteorological Research Council (SMRC) carried out a study on recent relative sea level rise in the
Bangladesh coast. <strong>The</strong> study has used 22 years historical tidal data <strong>of</strong> the three coastal stations. <strong>The</strong> study
revealed that the rate <strong>of</strong> sea level rise during the last 22 years is many fold higher than the mean rate <strong>of</strong> global
sea level rise over 100 years, which showed the important effect <strong>of</strong> the regional tectonic subsidence. Variation
among the stations was also found. Table 5.3 represents the trend <strong>of</strong> tidal level in three costal stations.
Table 5.3 Trend <strong>of</strong> tidal surge in three coastal stations
Tidal Station Region Latitude (N) Longitude (E) Datum (m) Trend (mm/year)
Hiron Point Western 21 3.784
˚48’ 89˚28’ Char Changa Central 22 ˚ 08’
Cox’s Bazar Eastern
Source: SMRC, No. 3
A2
(High Emission Scenario)
High
Low
B1
(High Emission Scenario)
High
Low
21 ˚ 26’ 91 ˚ 59’
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4.0
91 4.996
˚06’ 6.0
Sea Level Rise (cm)
2020 2050 2080
6 27 62
- 5 9
5 23 48
- 8 15
4.836 7.8
<strong>The</strong> IPCC 3rd Assessment report estimated that the global rise in sea level from 1990 to 2100 would be between 9
and 88 cm. <strong>The</strong> Third Assessment Report has also projected global sea level rise for the year 2020, 2050 and 2080
using different emission scenarios. Future projection <strong>of</strong> Global Sea Level Rise is given below.
Table 5.4 Sea Level Change under different Emission Scenarios
Recent study result revealed that about 13% more area (469,000 ha) will be inundated in monsoon due to 62 cm
sea level rise for high emission scenario A2 in addition to the inundated area in base condition. <strong>The</strong> most
vulnerable areas are the areas without polders like Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Barisal, Jhalakati, Bagerhat, Narail. Due to
increased rainfall in addition to 62cm sea level rise, the inundated area will be increased and about 16% (551,500
ha) more area will be inundated in the year 2080. On the contrary, in the dry season due to 62cm sea level rise
about 364,200 ha (10%) more area will be inundated (inundation more than 30cm) for A2 scenario in the year
2080. However, 15cm sea level rise has insignificant impact on inundation in dry season.
It is important to note that analyzing the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> sea level rise in the coastal areas need to incorporate
dynamic nature <strong>of</strong> its morphology and formation process. Bangladesh is a dynamic delta and its landmass is still
growing by gradual deposition <strong>of</strong> sediment. <strong>The</strong> average sediment accumulation rate for the last few hundred
29

years in the coastal areas <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is 5-6 mm a year. <strong>The</strong>refore, while sea level rises 7 mm/year and the land
rises 5-6 mm/year. From the above figures it may appear that the relative sea level rise in the coastal areas <strong>of</strong>
Bangladesh is 1-2 mm/year but significant implication <strong>of</strong> the sea level rise is losing the productive land which has
formed over time.
Salinity intrusion in surface water is highly seasonal in Bangladesh. Salinity and its seasonal variation are
dominant factor for coastal echo-system, fisheries and agriculture. <strong>The</strong>refore, any <strong>change</strong>s on present spatial and
temporal variation <strong>of</strong> salinity will affect the biophysical system <strong>of</strong> coastal area. Distribution <strong>of</strong> salinity level and
landward intrusion in the rivers and surface water for the base condition has been assessed using the southwest
region model and Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal model for dry and monsoon season. For the base year 2005, it is found that in
monsoon (June to September), the saline water is fully flushed out <strong>of</strong> the Meghna Estuary, but in the western
part <strong>of</strong> the lower delta it is still saline due to scarcity <strong>of</strong> fresh water flow from upstream. It is found that 5 ppt
isohaline (line <strong>of</strong> equal salinity level) intrude more than 70 km landward in the western part <strong>of</strong> Sundarbans,
through the lean flowing Jamuna-Malancha-Raimangal river system, whereas comparatively higher freshwater
flow through Pussur-Sibsa river system pushes the 5 ppt saline front more downward and keeps it at the estuary
mouth. Similarly, the Baleswar-Bishkhali river systems with higher monsoonal freshwater flow from the Padma-
Lower Meghna, keeps this south central region almost saline free during monsoon. During dry season (December
to March) deep landward intrusion occurs through various inlets in the western part <strong>of</strong> coastal zone and through
Meghna Estuary.
Salinity will intrude more landward specially during dry season due to sea level rise. Consequently brackish water
area would increase and it is seen that sea level rise <strong>of</strong> 27 cm causes 6% increase <strong>of</strong> brackish water area
compared to base condition. About an additional area <strong>of</strong> 327,700 ha would become high saline water zone (>5
ppt) during dry season due to 60 cm sea level rise. In the monsoon about 6% <strong>of</strong> sweet water areas (276,700 ha)
will be lost. Impact <strong>of</strong> 15cm sea level rise on salinity intrusion under low emission scenario B1 in the year 2080 is
insignificant.
Table 5.5 Changes in fresh and brackish water area [Ha] in dry and monsoon
Scenario Dry Season Monsoon Se ason
Fresh water Brackish water Change Fresh water Brackish water Change
area (1 ppt) (%) area (1 ppt) (%)
Base 2,562,500 2,152,000 3779600 9403
A2, 27cm
[2050]
2273300 2441200 3665400 10508 114200
A2, 62cm
[2080]
2135700 2578800 426800 3502800 12111 276700
30
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5.4 Extreme Climatic Events
Natural disaster is a regular
phenomenon in Bangladesh. Key
natural disasters are riverine and
flash flood, tropical cyclones,
tornados, and droughts due to its
unique geographical location
(Himalaya to the north and Bay <strong>of</strong>
Bengal to the south). It is reported
that between 1991 and 2000, 93
major disasters occurred in
Bangladesh, resulting in nearly
200,000 deaths and causing US $
5.9 billion in damages with high
losses in agriculture and
infrastructure (CCC, 2007). Since
then, the country is experiencing
extreme climatic events
frequently. It is revealed from the
disaster records <strong>of</strong> last three
decades that frequency <strong>of</strong> natural
disasters has increased over time.
<strong>The</strong> following table shows that
frequency <strong>of</strong> flood and tornado
has increased in last two decades.
Table 5.6 Frequency Table <strong>of</strong> Hazards
Decades
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No. <strong>of</strong> events
Flood Cyclone Tornado Drought
80s 1 7 2 3
90s 3 4 1 3
00s 9 7 6 1
01s 6
1 5 0
Total 19
19 14 7
Source: BWDB (2007), CEGIS & SMRC
31

5.4.1 Changes in Flood Frequency
Flood is a regular natural disaster occurring in Bangladesh and thus entailing huge damage to the economy.
Four main types <strong>of</strong> natural floods occur in Bangladesh:
Table 5.7 Different types <strong>of</strong> flood occurring in Bangladesh
Type <strong>of</strong> Flood
Flash Flood
Rainwater flood/
Monsoon Flood
River Flood
Coastal Flood
32
Causes <strong>of</strong> occurrence
Run-<strong>of</strong>f durin gexceptionaly heavy
rainfall occurring in neighboring
upland areas
Heavy rainfall occurring over flood
planeand terrace areas within
Bangladesh.
Snow melt in high Himalayans,
Heavy monsoon rainfalls over the
Himalayans, the Asam Hills,
theTripura Hills and the Uppar
Brahmaputra and Ganges flood
plains
In case <strong>of</strong> important cyclones the
entire coastal beltis flooded.
Coastal areas are also subjected to
tidal flooding
Source: Ahmed, 2006
<strong>The</strong> projected increase in rainfall during
monsoon would be reflected in the flow
regimes <strong>of</strong> the rivers <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh. Increased
flooding and drainage congestion, therefore,
are the expected consequences from a warmer
and wetter condition. <strong>The</strong> increased run<strong>of</strong>f
would also aggravate the existing drainage
problem and create new ones. Bangladeshi
rivers, especially the major ones, have lost
gradient during the past several decades.
Consequently their conveyance capacity has
diminished significantly. Furthermore, snow
melting in the Himalayan region along with
simultaneous rise in sea level will eventually
result in prolonged and devastating flood.
From historical point <strong>of</strong> view, it has been
observed that the frequency, intensity and
magnitude <strong>of</strong> flood have increased as well.
Since 1954, 48 small, medium and big floods
have struck Bangladesh. Among those, 7 events
were severe where more than 30% <strong>of</strong> land area
was inundated. <strong>The</strong> following table shows
flooded area from 1954 to 2007.
Time/duration Tentative affected area
Pre monsoon months <strong>of</strong> April and
May
April-May, June-August
April-May andJune-September
Tidal flood occurs from Juneto
September
<strong>The</strong> foot <strong>of</strong> the Northern and
eastern hills <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh
In thesouth-western part <strong>of</strong> the
country
Catchment areas<strong>of</strong> three
majorrivers.
South western coastal areas.
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Source: BWDB, 2007 (Annual flood report, 2007)
In the context <strong>of</strong> return period <strong>of</strong> different scale
<strong>of</strong> flood, it is also found that a flood event
which inundates 37% <strong>of</strong> land usually occurs
once in every 10 years. But it is found that
number <strong>of</strong> floods inundated 37% <strong>of</strong> land
occurred 5 times in last 30 years and 3 times in
last 10 years. Similarly, flood which inundates
60% area suppose to occur once in every 50
years but in last 30 years such flood has
occurred twice and in last 10 years has
occurred once. So, it is quite evident that
frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> flood has increased
significantly in last 30 years.
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33

Table 5.9 Return period <strong>of</strong> flood according to affected area
Flooded Area
Return period (Years)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
Area affected % 20 30 37 43 52 60 70
Last 30 years 5 3 2 2
Last 10 years 3 2 1 1
5.4.2 Changes in Cyclone and Storm Surges
<strong>The</strong> Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal is a known breeding ground <strong>of</strong> tropical cyclone and hit the coastal area <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh during
pre-monsoon (April and May) and post-monsoon (October and November) seasons. One <strong>of</strong> the reasons why it
hits Bangladesh coast <strong>of</strong>ten is the conical shape <strong>of</strong> the Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal. Over the last 50 years, 15 severe cyclones
with wind speed ranging from 140 to 225 km/hr have hit the coastal area <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh <strong>of</strong> which 7 hit in premonsoon
and rest in the post-monsoon season.
Tropical cyclones are the most talked about climatic events in the subcontinent especially in Bangladesh and
India. <strong>The</strong> coastal area <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is more vulnerable to cyclones in the Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal Regions. In this study,
frequency <strong>of</strong> cyclonic disturbance formed over the Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal has been compiled for the period 1901 to 2007.
Table 5.10 Historical record <strong>of</strong> Cyclone formed in Bay <strong>of</strong> Bengal
Cyclone
Year Maximum Wind
Speed (Kph)
Nov. 1901 62-88
Nov. 1904 62-88
Oct. 1905 62-88
34
Surge Height (m) Causalities
Oct. 1909 89-117 172
Dec. 1909 89-117
Apr. 1911 89-117
Sep. 1919 (Bengal Cyclone) 120 3500
Apr. 1922 89-117
May. 1923 89-117 6
May. 1926 89-117 2700
May. 1941 89-117 3.03 -3.64 5000
Oct. 1947 89-117 500
Oct. 1960 (8 -10) 129 6 9450
Oct. 1960 (30 -31) 193 6.6 5149
May. 1961 (5 -9) 161 5 11,468
May. 1961 (27 -30) 161 6.5
Oct. 1962 93
May. 1963 193 6 22000
Oct. 1963 81
May. 1965 161 3.7 19279
Dec. 1965 184 3.6 3000
Oct. 1966 139 6.67 850
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Cyclone
Year Maximum Wind
Speed (Kph)
Oc t. 1970 163
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Surge Height (m) Causalities
Nov. 1970 224 10 500000
Dec. 1973 111 4.55 1000
Nov. 1974 161 5.1 20
Jun. 1975 83 5
May. 1977 120
Dec. 1981 167 4.55 72
Oct. 1983 122 43
Nov. 1983 135 1.5 300
May. 1985 154 4.55 10000
Nov. 1986 110 0.61 60
Nov. 1988 161 4.4 568 3
Apr. 1991 225 7.6 1,38,882
Jun. 1991 110 2.5 300
Nov. 1992 50
Apr. 1994 210 4.85 184
Nov. 1995 210 650
May. 1997 230 4.55 155
Sep. 1997 150 3.05 67
May. 1998 150 2.44
Nov. 1998 90 2.44
Nov. 2007 220 4.5 3000
Source: SMRC and Wikipedia.
Table 4.10 shows that 15 most damaging cyclones have struck Bangladesh very badly. Among those 4 were
catastrophic and killer cyclones which struck in 1919, 1970, 1991 and 2007. <strong>The</strong> damaging cyclonic events have
been identified depending on wind speed and surge height. <strong>The</strong> cyclones which have wind speed <strong>of</strong> 120 kph
and surge height <strong>of</strong> 4.5 m have taken into account.
Since cyclones have potential to cause severe damage to agriculture, district wise frequency and affected
household along with their vulnerability <strong>of</strong> being affected by cyclone have been presented in the following
table.
5.4.3 Changes in Drought
Bangladesh experiences major droughts once in 5 years. Droughts at local scale are much more frequent and
affect part <strong>of</strong> the crop life cycle. <strong>The</strong> western part <strong>of</strong> the country is vulnerable to drought during pre-monsoon
period.
35

During the last 50 years, Bangladesh suffered about 20 drought conditions. <strong>The</strong> drought condition in northwestern
Bangladesh in recent decades had led to a shortfall <strong>of</strong> rice production <strong>of</strong> 3.5 million tons in the 1990s. If
other losses, such as, to other crops (all rabi crops, sugarcane, tobacco, wheat
http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/HT/S_0582.htm, etc) as well as to perennial agricultural resources, such as,
bamboo, betel nut, fruits like litchi, mango, jackfruit, banana etc. are considered, the loss will be substantially
much higher.
Current Severe drought can affect yield in 30% <strong>of</strong> the country, reducing national production by 10%. 2030
Temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 0.5˚C and annual rainfall reduction <strong>of</strong> 5% could reduce run<strong>of</strong>f into the Ganges,
Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers by 14%, 11% and 8%, respectively. With 12% reduction in run<strong>of</strong>f, the population
living in severe drought-prone areas increases from 4% to 9% under moderate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Table 5.11
provides the exiting drought affected areas under different drought classes.
Table 5.11 Exiting Drought Affected Areas under Different Drought Classes
Drought Class Rabi Pre-Kharif Kharif
Very Severe 0.446 0.403 0.344
Severe 1.71 1.15 0.74
Moderate 2.95 4.76 3.17
Slight 4.21 4.09 2.90
No Drought 3.17 2.09 0.68
Non-T. Aman 4.71
Future droughts may increase the probability <strong>of</strong> a dry year, meaning a year with a certain percentage <strong>of</strong> belowaverage
rainfall, by 4.4 times by 2050. Temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 1.3˚C and precipitation decrease <strong>of</strong> 9% would reduce
run<strong>of</strong>f into the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rivers by 27%, 21% and 15%, respectively. If run<strong>of</strong>f drops 22% in
kharif season, drought-prone areas would expand to include north-western to central, western and south-western
regions (GoB, 2005)
36
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Table 5.12 Drought Affected Area
1791
Year % <strong>of</strong> affected area
1951 31.63%
1957 46.54%
1958 37.47%
1961 22.39%
1966 18.42%
1972 42.48%
1979 42.04%
1865 Drought proceeding famine occurred in Dhaka.
1866 Severe drought in Bogra. <strong>The</strong> rice production <strong>of</strong> the district was hit hard and the price went
up three times its normal level.
1872 Drought in Sundarbans. <strong>The</strong> rainfall was deficient and in several lots the crops sufferedto a
great extent.
1874 Bogra was affected and the crop failure was much greater. <strong>The</strong> rainfall was extremely low.
1951 Severe drought in northwest Bangladesh and substantially reduced rice production.
1973 One <strong>of</strong> the severest in the present century and was responsible for the 1974 famine in
northern Bangladesh.
1975 This drought affected 47% <strong>of</strong> the entire country and caused sufferings to about 53% <strong>of</strong> the
total population.
1978 -79 Severe drought causing widespread damage to crops. Reduced rice production by about 2
million tons and directly affected about 42% <strong>of</strong> the cultivated land and 44% <strong>of</strong> the
population. It was one <strong>of</strong> the severest in recent times.
1981 Severe drought adversely affected crop production.
1982 Caused a total loss <strong>of</strong> rice production amounting to about 53,000 tons. In the same year
flood damaged about 36,000 tons <strong>of</strong> rice.
1989 Most <strong>of</strong> the rivers in NW Bangladesh dried up and in several districts, such as Naogaon,
Nawabganj, Nilpahamari and Thakurgaon; dust syndrome occurred for a prolonged period
due to drying up the topsoil.
1994 -95 This drought was followed by that <strong>of</strong> 1995-96, caused immense damage to crops, especially
in the case <strong>of</strong> rice and jute the main crops <strong>of</strong> NW Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong>se are followed by
bamboo-clumps, a major cash earning crop <strong>of</strong> many farmers in the region. In the recent
times, this was most persistent drought in Bangladesh.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Table 5.13 Frequency <strong>of</strong> Occurrence <strong>of</strong> Drough
District Frequency
Panchagar
Thakurgaon
Jessore 1
Naogaon 5
Nawabganj 5
Rajshahi 1
Natore 1
Nilpahamari 1
Joypurhat 3
Dinajpur 3
Rangpur 3
Pabna 1
Bogra 1
Table 5.14 Showing historical significance <strong>of</strong> droughts
Drought affected Jessore district. Priceshad risen twice and three times <strong>of</strong> their usual levels.
1
1
37

<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Bangladesh: Impacts and
Vulnerabilities to
Climate Change

6.1 Context <strong>of</strong> Vulnerability
<strong>The</strong> above section <strong>of</strong> the report provides <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios and its associated contexts <strong>of</strong> vulnerability to
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and sea level rise for Bangladesh. It revealed that vulnerability context varies across the country.
<strong>The</strong> contexts may be characterised by geographical region with predominant ecosystem. <strong>The</strong> present
vulnerability <strong>of</strong> the country is related to flood (riverine and flash flood), drought, salinity, cyclone and storm
surges, and river bank and soil erosion which will be aggravated by <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and sea level rise. <strong>The</strong> northwestern
region <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is prone to seasonal drought where extreme temperature and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong>
rainfall are key issues related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Salinity intrusion, sea level rise, and cyclone and storm surges are
key issues for the low lying coastal area. <strong>The</strong> floodplain ecosystem spread over mostly in the central region <strong>of</strong> the
country which will face frequent and intense flood due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> north-eastern and hilly areas <strong>of</strong>
the country will face more devastating flash flood. A summary <strong>of</strong> the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the <strong>climate</strong> related
vulnerability context by major geographical regions and ecosystems are given below.
Types <strong>of</strong> Geographic al Areas
with Dominant Ecosystems
Floodplain (freshwater aquatic
ecosystem, fisheries, Transplanted
Aman)
Drought Prone (dryness, moisture
stressed condition)
Coastal Zone
Haor Basin (tectonically
depressed area)
Hilly Region
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Table 6.1 Summary <strong>of</strong> Vulnerability Context
Climate Change Vulnerability Context and Characteristics
Changes in Flooding Characteristics
Coverage <strong>of</strong> inundated area in monsoon season will increase
(more flood vulnerable area)
Changes in depth and duration <strong>of</strong> inundation (depth <strong>of</strong> water will be higher
and periodwill be longer)
Changes in recession period <strong>of</strong> flood water (water logging)
Changes in flood frequency (more frequent and intense flood)
Changes in Drought Characteristics
Changes in drought intensity (more area under severe drought)
Changes <strong>of</strong> extent <strong>of</strong> drought prone area (expansion <strong>of</strong> area)
Changes in timing <strong>of</strong> drought (erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature)
Changes in Coastal Characteristics
Expansion <strong>of</strong> salinized areas
Increase in salinity intensity
Increase drainage congestion and coastal flooding
Cyclone and storm surges
Changes in Haor Basin Characteristics
Changes in timing <strong>of</strong> flash flood
Changes in recession period
Changes in distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall and intensity
Changes in erosion <strong>of</strong> top soil
Increase possibility <strong>of</strong> landslide
<strong>The</strong> above mentioned vulnerability context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is likely to affect agriculture sector including crops,
livestock and fisheries; freshwater for drinking and agricultural purpose; and rural infrastructure including water
supply and sanitation, and rural roads. <strong>The</strong> following table shows level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on different
sectors.
41

Table 6.2 Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Different Sectors
Physical Vulnerability Context
Extreme
Temperature
42
Sea Level Rise
Coastal
Inundation
Salinity
Intrusion
Flood
Drought River
Flood
Flash
Flood
Cyclone
and
Storm
Surges
+++ ++ +++ +++ + ++ +++ -
Erosion
and
Accretion
Sectoral
Vulnerability
Context
Crop
Agriculture
++ + + ++ ++ + + - Fisheries
++ ++ +++ - - + +++ - Livestock
+ ++ - ++ + + +++ Infrastructure
++ +++ ++ - ++ + + - Industries
++ +++ +++ - ++ - + - Biodiversity
+++ + +++ - ++ - ++ - Health
- - - - - - +++ +++
Human
Settlement
++ + - - + - + - Energy
Source: NAPA
6.2 Impacts on Crop Agriculture
Agricultural crop <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is influenced by seasonal characteristics and different variables <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> such
as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc. It is also <strong>of</strong>ten constrained by different disasters such as floods,
droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclone and storm surges. Several studies indicated that <strong>climate</strong> is changing and
becoming more unpredictable every year in Bangladesh. <strong>The</strong>re is a strong possibility that moisture content <strong>of</strong>
the topsoil in the north-western region would decrease substantially resulting from decrease in winter
precipitation and higher evapo-transpiration.
Degradation <strong>of</strong> productive land including quality and physical loss are key concerns for coastal agriculture due
to salinity intrusion and sea level rise. Drainage congestion and water logging is very likely in the coastal region
as a result <strong>of</strong> combined effect <strong>of</strong> higher sea water levels, subsidence, sedimentation <strong>of</strong> estuary branches, higher
riverbed levels and reduced sedimentation in flood-protected areas.
<strong>The</strong> higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the
coastal belt, droughts in the northwest and southwest, and drainage congestions are likely to reduce crop yields
and crop production. Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model result shows that
yield reduction will vary by types <strong>of</strong> crops and their growing season. IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice production
in Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent.
6.2.1 Existing Impacts – Perception
Result <strong>of</strong> the expert interviews revealed that the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> including variability and extremes on
crops are multi-dimensional. Nature <strong>of</strong> variability and extreme, location and season are important determinant <strong>of</strong>
level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>. <strong>The</strong> main crop, rice, is severely affected by extreme particularly flood, drought, cyclone and storm
surges. Other factors are salinity intrusion and temperature variation and rainfall.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Reduction <strong>of</strong> crop yield by gradual <strong>change</strong> and total or partial damage due to extreme events are key <strong>impacts</strong>
facing by crop agriculture sector. In addition to direct <strong>climate</strong> and <strong>climate</strong> related disaster, other key factors <strong>of</strong>
yield reduction are degradation <strong>of</strong> soil health by sand deposition and erosion <strong>of</strong> cultivable land. <strong>The</strong> following
table provides several stress factors identified by the experts and <strong>probable</strong> yield reduction. It is also to be noted
that most <strong>of</strong> the crops are affected at flowering to grain-filling stage and thus <strong>impacts</strong> vary by agro-ecological
zone.
Table 6.3 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in the
Flood and Flash Flood Affected Areas
Major Changes and Impacts
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
• Soil quality degradation by sand deposition due to bank erosion 10
Improve soil health by deposition <strong>of</strong> silts and SOM 20
Changes in flooding characteristics (increased frequency, severity, duration
and extent)
Changes in crops/cropping patterns with new varieties 15 (incr ease)
Damage <strong>of</strong> Aus, Aman by riverine flood and river bank erosion 30
Damage <strong>of</strong> Boro Rice by flash flood in basin areas 40
Delay sowing <strong>of</strong> pulses and vegetables 30
Increase waterlogged area 20
River bank erosion causing decrease <strong>of</strong> cultivable land 20
Increasing incidence <strong>of</strong> pests and diseases 10
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008
Table 6.4 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in the
Drought Affected Areas
Major Changes and Impacts
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
Decreasing soil moisture that affect crop production systems 20
Changes in drought characteristics (time/duration, severity and extent) 20
Degradation <strong>of</strong> soil physical properties due to depletion <strong>of</strong> SOM and
decrease <strong>of</strong> microbial population
20
Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays,
P-fixation, micro-nutrient deficiencies <strong>of</strong> Zn, B and Mo)
25
Cultivable paddy land is transferring to high value crops especially in
Barind areas
15
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with new varieties 10 (increase)
Aman crop is affected by drought 30
30
43

Major Changes and Impacts
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
Wheat is affected by drought and shorter winter period 20
Rabicrops/vegetables, pulses being affected due to moisture stress
and fogginess
30
Fruit dropping due to moisture stress, B deficiency and fogginess 30
Increasing incidence <strong>of</strong> pests and diseases
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008
Table 6.5 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in
the Coast Areas
44
Major Changes and Impacts
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
15
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
Increasing soil salinity with extent and severity 20
Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparation 15
Degradation <strong>of</strong> soil physical/chemical properties due to prolonged
25
water stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies <strong>of</strong> S and Zn
wetland rice cultivation.
Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soil
30
wetness) that create problems in land preparation
Late planting <strong>of</strong> rabi crops due to delaying in recession <strong>of</strong> flood water
20
and soil wetness
Damage <strong>of</strong> standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to
30
moisture stress and salinity
Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in
Fallow: 50%
Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II season
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase)
Rainfed aus crop is affected by drought and salinity
Boro and wheat is affected by salinity
Conversion <strong>of</strong> crop land into shrimp culture
Increasing incidences <strong>of</strong> pests and diseases
Decreasing income source <strong>of</strong> the poor in coastal areas
Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008
Experts have also expressed their views on changing cropping pattern. Changes in characteristics such as
untimely and prolonged flooding, erratic rainfall, temperature variation, prolonged drought, <strong>change</strong>s in the
length <strong>of</strong> winter and summer seasons have identified as <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related drivers. Key experts informed
that the length <strong>of</strong> winter season is decreasing whereas summer is increasing. Present cropping seasons are also
facing uneven distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature variation which is leading seasonal adjustment in the
cropping pattern and in most cases these are temporary <strong>change</strong>s. Moreover, crop land is transferring to
horticulture especially in the drought prone area. This reduces rice crop production considerably at local level
but significant implication is limiting rural livelihood opportunities in crop agriculture.
Damage <strong>of</strong> crop is another key effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> variability and extremes. Flood (all types) and cyclone damage
standing crops severely. Department <strong>of</strong> Agriculture Extension (DAE) under the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Agriculture has
30
20
30
20

estimated that 1.39, 1.26 and 14.48 lakhs hectares <strong>of</strong> crop land was affected by flood in 2005, 2006 and 2007,
respectively. Cyclone Sidr has fully destroyed 300,940 ha <strong>of</strong> Transplanted Aman and partially damaged 700,533 ha
(Draft report on cyclone Sidr, CDMP). <strong>The</strong> following table shows yearly damage <strong>of</strong> rice variety by flood and
cyclone.
Table 6.6 Loss <strong>of</strong> production by different types <strong>of</strong> hazards
Year
Figure 6.1 Year wise occurrence <strong>of</strong> flood with % <strong>of</strong> area inundated and damage to crops.
Crop Damage (MT)
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
Source: CEGIS, BBS and DAE 2007.
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Loss in Production (M. Tons)
Flood (all types) Cyclone/Storm/Hailstorm
Aus
Aman Boro Aus Aman Boro
1993 71,835 115,31 3 - 141 - 80,522
1994 31,565 3,535 139,08 0 - - -
1995 176,970 541,99 5 - - - -
1996 12,558 8,677 - - - 25,012
1997 30,117 6,240 - - 4,501 -
1998 274,875 927,35 7 23,558 - - -
1999 26,510 242,60 5 - - - -
2000 - 197,97 0 - 1,572 - 317,460
2001 27,540 34,870 - - - 18,440
2002 52,030 131,89 0 - - - 247,760
2003 177,880 43,880 - - 15,610
2004 150,590 954,50 0 - - - 497,220
Source: BBS
Usually adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on soil quality and its subsequent effects on crop are not recognized.
Experts interviewed informed that temperature variation could increase biotic activity <strong>of</strong> the soil and increase
deficiency <strong>of</strong> soil nutrient and likely to reduce crop production. It has also revealed that flood has both positive
and negative impact on soil. In the case <strong>of</strong> land covered by sand which degrades the quality <strong>of</strong> soil while silt
deposition improves soil quality which has positive impact on crop production.
It is evident that the higher the magnitude <strong>of</strong> flood, the higher the damages <strong>of</strong> crop agriculture. It is found that
flood <strong>of</strong> 1998 and 2004 cause significant damage to crops. <strong>The</strong> following figure shows relationship between area
inundated and damage to crop.
C rop D amage Area inundated
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Area Inundated (%)
45

6.2.2 Future Impacts – Perception
<strong>The</strong> <strong>probable</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on crop agriculture will be aggravated in future since the frequency and
intensity <strong>of</strong> shocks and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall and temperature will increase, stated by the key experts <strong>of</strong>
agriculture sector. Historical data also states that frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> flood and cyclone will increase which
will affect crop agriculture at a greater scale. <strong>The</strong> major effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will include <strong>change</strong>s in
cropping pattern and crop variety, reduction <strong>of</strong> coverage <strong>of</strong> Rabi crops, <strong>change</strong>s <strong>of</strong> Boro season, extent <strong>of</strong>
damage <strong>of</strong> standing crops. T. Aman, wheat and pulses will suffer more due to increase severity and area <strong>of</strong>
drought. <strong>The</strong> experts from SRDI informed that the high land crop will be affected by <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> very
severely, medium high land severely and medium lowland & low land will be un<strong>change</strong>d. It is also informed that
most <strong>of</strong> the climatic events will degrade the quality <strong>of</strong> soil. <strong>The</strong> respondent said that the more developed soil, the
poorer quality <strong>of</strong> soil. Frequent flood, erratic rainfall and temperature variation will increase biotic activity,
decomposition, porosity and permeability <strong>of</strong> soil which will affect crop agriculture. <strong>The</strong>se <strong>impacts</strong> will vary in
different ecological zones. <strong>The</strong> following tables show the perceptions <strong>of</strong> future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>,
variability and extremes in different ecological zones on crop agriculture:
Table 6.7 Perception <strong>of</strong> Future Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Flood prone areas
Major <strong>change</strong>s and <strong>impacts</strong>
Crop loss/yield
reduction (%)
Deposition <strong>of</strong> SOM will be increased in low-lying areas 10
Minerals and coarse materials will be increased in char lands with areas and
10
extent
Cropping pattern, cropping season and variety <strong>of</strong> crops will be <strong>change</strong>d 10
Coverage <strong>of</strong> rabi crops will be decreased 15
Prolonged flood/Late flood will delay rabi crops 10
Increase intensity/severity <strong>of</strong> flash floods will hamper Boro cultivation in Haor
50
basins
Overall cropyield will be decreased due to degradation <strong>of</strong> soil quality and
15
climatic hazards
Table 6.8 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Drought Prone Areas
46
Major <strong>change</strong>s and <strong>impacts</strong>
Soil reserve nutrients will be decreased due to increased mineralization,
depletion <strong>of</strong> SOM and intensive cultivation
Dry-land crop varieties will be <strong>change</strong>d
T. Aman will highly be affected by drought and moisture stress
Chickpea, tomato will be affected at higher temperature
Flowering and grain-filling stage <strong>of</strong> wheat and T. Aman will be affected seriously by
temperature variation and decreased winter period and moisture stress
Sterility <strong>of</strong> wheat, pulses and oilseeds will be increased due to increased fogginess
Seedlings <strong>of</strong> Boro will be hampered due to cold wave
Cold wave will affect mustard, chickpea, lentil, and other rabi crops at the stage <strong>of</strong>
flowering and grain filling and cause yield reduction
Disease <strong>of</strong> potato will be increased due to cold wave and fogginess
Crop loss/Yield
reduction
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
20
30
TA-30, wheat 20
and mustard 10
30
30
10
20
20

Table 6.9 Perception <strong>of</strong> Present Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts related to Climate Change in the Coastal Areas
Major Changes and Impacts
Crop loss/Yield
reduction (%)
Soil salinitywill be increased with extent and severity 20
Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparation
Degradation <strong>of</strong> soil physical/chemical properties due to prolonged water
10
stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies <strong>of</strong> S and Znwetland rice
cultivation.
20
Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soilwetness)
that create problems in land preparation
Late planting <strong>of</strong> rabi crops due to delaying in recession <strong>of</strong> flood water
and soil wetness
Damage <strong>of</strong> standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to moisture
stress and salinity
20
Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in Rabi,
Kharif-I and Kharif-II season
Fallow:50%
Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase)
Rainfed aus crop will be affected bydrought and salinity 20
Boro and wheat will be affected by salinity 20
Conversion <strong>of</strong> crop land into shrimp culture 30
Increasing incidences <strong>of</strong> pests and diseases
Decreasing income source <strong>of</strong> the poor in coastal areas
20
6.2.3 Future Impacts – Model Result
Various studies indicate that a temperature rise <strong>of</strong> 1 to 20C in combination with lower solar radiation causes
sterility in rice spikelets. High temperature was found to reduce yields <strong>of</strong> HYVs <strong>of</strong> aus, aman and boro rice in all
study locations and in all seasons. <strong>The</strong> effect was particularly evident at a rise <strong>of</strong> temperature by 40C. Climate
<strong>change</strong>s, especially in temperature, humidity and radiation, have great effects on the incidence <strong>of</strong> insect pests,
diseases and microorganisms. A <strong>change</strong> <strong>of</strong> 10C <strong>change</strong>s the virulence <strong>of</strong> some races <strong>of</strong> rust infecting wheat.
<strong>The</strong> production <strong>of</strong> crop in Bangladesh is constrained by too much water during the wet season and too little
during the dry season. Presently total irrigated area is 4.4 million ha which is more than 50 % <strong>of</strong> the potentially
irrigable area <strong>of</strong> 7.12 million ha cultivated area. This area is being irrigated through surface and ground water.
Irrigation coverage through Shallow tubewells (STWs) during the dry period has grown very fast following a
policy <strong>of</strong> privatization and deregulation. As a result, the groundwater table in Bangladesh is declining at a rapid
rate causing STWs to become non-operational in many parts <strong>of</strong> the country during dry period. Lack <strong>of</strong> surface
water during the dry season limits the function <strong>of</strong> Low Lift Pumps.
<strong>The</strong> GFDL model predicted about 17 % decline in overall rice production and as high as 61 per cent decline in
wheat production compared to the baseline situation <strong>of</strong> 1990 under 4 degree <strong>change</strong>s in temperature. <strong>The</strong>
highest impact would be on wheat followed by rice (aus variety). This translates to a reduction <strong>of</strong> 4.5 million tons
<strong>of</strong> rice at the present level (2002) <strong>of</strong> production. Of the three varieties <strong>of</strong> rice grown in Bangladesh, the aus rice
(grown during the summer, monsoon period under rain-fed conditions) seems to be the most vulnerable. <strong>The</strong>
other model, Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM) predicted a significant fall in food-grain production. It
should be noted, however, that this scenario was based on projecting existing cropping patterns into the futurewhich
is not necessarily what will happen, as there are signs <strong>of</strong> significant <strong>change</strong>s already taking place in
cropping patterns.
It was noticed that temperature increase <strong>of</strong> 4 o C would have severe impact on food-grain production, especially
for wheat production. On the other hand, carbon-dioxide fertilization would facilitate food-grain production. A
rise in temperature would cause significant decrease in production <strong>of</strong> 28 % and 68 % for rice and wheat
respectively. Moreover, doubling <strong>of</strong> atmospheric concentration <strong>of</strong> CO2 in combination with a similar rise in
temperature would result in an overall 20 % rise in rice production and 31 % decline in wheat production. It was
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
20
20
47

found that boro rice would enjoy good harvest under severe <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario with doubling <strong>of</strong>
atmospheric concentration <strong>of</strong> CO (Karim et al., 1999).
2
<strong>The</strong> apparent increase in yield <strong>of</strong> boro (dry season rice crop generally grown under irrigated conditions and
includes high yielding varieties) and other crops might be constrained by moisture stress. A 60 % moisture stress
on top <strong>of</strong> other effects might cause as high as 32 % decline in boro yield, instead <strong>of</strong> having an overall 20 % net
increase. It is feared that moisture stress would be more intense during the dry season, which might force the
Bangladeshi farmers to reduce the area for boro cultivation. Shortfall in foodgrain production would severely
threaten food security <strong>of</strong> the poverty-ridden country.
Under a severe (4oC temperature rise) <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario the potential shortfall in rice production could
exceed 30 % from the trend, while that for wheat and potato could be as high as 50 % and 70 % respectively
(Karim, 1996). Under a moderate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario the crop loss due to salinity intrusion could be about
0.2 Mt (Habibullah et al., 1998). <strong>The</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> production due to such effects may be relatively higher compared to
that under floods. However, the loss incurred in other sectors could be much higher in case <strong>of</strong> floods than the
direct climatic <strong>change</strong>s. <strong>The</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> low-flow on agricultural vulnerability is considered to be much less intense
compared to other effects. <strong>The</strong> ultimate <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> food grain production would increase import <strong>of</strong> food
which will require spending hard currency.
6.3 Fisheries
<strong>The</strong>re is limited quantitative assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on fisheries but it is anticipated that
aquaculture will be affected adversely due to increased flooding and lack <strong>of</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> water in the dry season.
While production may increase in open water fisheries as a result <strong>of</strong> monsoon flood. <strong>The</strong>refore, total production <strong>of</strong>
freshwater fishes may remain same. It is also expected that composition <strong>of</strong> coastal fisheries may <strong>change</strong> overtime
as a result <strong>of</strong> coastal inundation and salinity intrusion. It is also anticipated that livestock will face fodder crisis in
the coastal and heat related stress in the north-west region <strong>of</strong> the country.
6.3.1 Existing Impacts – Perception
Climate <strong>change</strong> will have both negative and positive <strong>impacts</strong> on fisheries. <strong>The</strong> positive impact is possible increase
in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the <strong>impacts</strong> would not be remarkable in national context
rather it would affect investment at individual level. <strong>The</strong> key experts’ interviews and consultation workshops
revealed that flood and cyclone affect culture fisheries severely while affect <strong>of</strong> other shocks such as drought,
salinity intrusion, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. Flood causes fish loss
damaging pond dykes, hatcheries, nurseries and embankments. It also affects fish production through disease
outbreaks and pond siltation. Fish production may also be hampered by affecting breeding ground <strong>of</strong> fish due to
siltation <strong>of</strong> fish habitat. <strong>The</strong>se affect livelihoods <strong>of</strong> fishermen and fish farmers.
Coastal aquaculture and fisheries are severely affected by cyclone and storm surges. Cyclone causes destruction <strong>of</strong>
fishers’ lives and properties (boats, nets etc.). It damages fish landing and marketing centres, aquaculture
infrastructure including embankments, sluice gate, hatcheries, and nurseries. In the drought prone areas, fish
production decreases due to drying up <strong>of</strong> inland water bodies or limited availability <strong>of</strong> water. It also affects fish
stock, growth and breeding <strong>of</strong> fishes. Moreover, drought causes disease outbreaks, reduction <strong>of</strong> fisheries seasons
and declination <strong>of</strong> broods <strong>of</strong> natural SIS.
Salinity intrusion affects freshwater fisheries by decreasing inland water bodies. It decreases income and nutrition
<strong>of</strong> rural poor but has positive <strong>impacts</strong> on coastal shrimp culture. Erratic rainfall adversely affect natural spawning
<strong>of</strong> fish including major carp spawning in Halda river and Kaptai lake and ultimately fish production and fishers.
Cold wave and fogginess also adversely affect fisheries. Cold wave affects breeding performance and growth <strong>of</strong>
fish species which reduces fish production. Besides, fogginess causes fish mortality in aquaculture pond and small
water bodies due to depletion <strong>of</strong> dissolve oxygen.
6.3.2 Future Impacts
It is likely that fisheries sector will face the similar problem related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> including variability and
48
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extreme. Key difference will be frequency, intensity and scale <strong>of</strong> the problem. Similar to the present situation, flood
will have both positive and negative <strong>impacts</strong> in future. Flood will affect aquaculture infrastructure, pond siltation,
habitat <strong>of</strong> fish breeding at larger scale while increased area under inundation and long duration is likely to increase
open water fisheries. Drought will affect fish growth, breeding & production, increase disease vulnerability, reduce
fishing season and reduce broods <strong>of</strong> natural SIS. Probable <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> cyclone are almost similar to existing <strong>impacts</strong>
but severity will be increased which will affect poverty at wider scale. Salinity intrusion and erratic rainfall will also
affect fish production.
6.4 Livestock
Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on livestock is also limited. However, it is suggested that extreme
temperature and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related natural disasters would affect livestock significantly. High temperature
would affect livestock in a number <strong>of</strong> ways: causes great discomfort as in the case <strong>of</strong> human, decreases feed intake
and alters nutrient metabolism leading to high loss <strong>of</strong> energy and the combined effects <strong>of</strong> discomfort and nutrient
metabolism reduces their productivity, resulting in financial loss for the farmers. Apart from extreme temperature,
natural disasters such as cyclone and tidal surge as mentioned above, also cause immense loss and sufferings to
livestock through destruction <strong>of</strong> forage crops as well as housing. Deaths <strong>of</strong> livestock due to cyclone and storm
surge are huge in the coastal area.
<strong>The</strong> consultation workshops and key experts’ interviews state that livestock sector is badly affected by <strong>climate</strong>
variability and shocks. Flood, cyclone and sea level rise have major <strong>impacts</strong> on livestock. Flood causes loss <strong>of</strong>
livestock, damage pasturelands which increase fodder scarcity and diseases <strong>of</strong> livestock. Cyclone and storm surge
causes huge loss <strong>of</strong> animal lives and shelters, damage <strong>of</strong> fodder, poor health and disease outbreak. Ultimately it
results reduction <strong>of</strong> livestock population. Sea level rise and associated coastal inundation leads to inundation <strong>of</strong>
pastureland and increase animal feed scarcity and increase incidence <strong>of</strong> animal diseases. It also reduces animal
rearing coverage. Drought hampered the production <strong>of</strong> livestock, increase management cost through incidence <strong>of</strong>
diseases and increase food scarcity which results poor health <strong>of</strong> livestock. Besides, salinity intrusion, temperature
variation and heat wave cause harm to livestock affecting fodder land and health <strong>of</strong> poultry and other
domesticated animals.
It is difficult to have perception on the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, variability and extremes on livestock because
there is no baseline information on these exist. But it is easily perceived that death and production <strong>of</strong> livestock will
decrease considerably with increasing intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> shocks. Production <strong>of</strong> livelihood will also
hampered due to decrease <strong>of</strong> grazing lands, increase death <strong>of</strong> livestock etc. <strong>The</strong>se will lead to decrease health
status affecting meat and milk production.
6.5 Forestry
Cyclone and storm surges along with salinity intrusion are the major shocks for forestry sector, stated by the key
experts. Cyclone damages forest and scale <strong>of</strong> damage depends on severity <strong>of</strong> cyclone and storm surges. <strong>The</strong> supper
cyclone Sidr destructed one-quarter <strong>of</strong> the Sundarbans and almost 100% afforested trees along its path. It has been
observed that all the trees at road sides as well as homesteads <strong>of</strong> about 10 to 15 years old have been destructed by
the Sidr. It means, 10-15 years <strong>of</strong> investments <strong>of</strong> individuals on homestead forestry as well as afforestation have
been simply diminished within only a few hours. Salinity intrusion has also adverse effects on freshwater forest
ecosystem. It affects adversely the flora and fauna composition. Flood and river bank erosion moderately affect
forest and cause loss <strong>of</strong> biodiversity, mortality <strong>of</strong> flood susceptible trees and plants and destroy both aquatic and
terrestrial ecosystems.
In the north-western part <strong>of</strong> the country, drought badly affects trees and plants due to moisture stress <strong>of</strong> the soil.
Branches and leaves <strong>of</strong> trees are dried up due to lack <strong>of</strong> moisture and excessive evapo-transpiration. Besides, erratic
rainfall, heat wave, and temperature variation cause harm to germination <strong>of</strong> seeds and transfer <strong>of</strong> species from one
place to another. Temperature variation brings <strong>change</strong>s in species <strong>of</strong> natural hill forest.
A large number <strong>of</strong> people depend on forest resources particularly on the natural forest and forest product. Forestry
sector will be affected by <strong>climate</strong> induced shocks and <strong>change</strong>s at higher scale. Flood will cause loss <strong>of</strong> trees and
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
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49

plants, biodiversity <strong>of</strong> the affected forest and forest based industries and infrastructure. Cyclone and storm surge
will simply destroy forest as well as homestead forest. Drought will affect forest causing drying up <strong>of</strong> branches and
leaves and soil moisture stress. Flora and fauna composition will be severely affected by sea level rise and salinity
intrusion. Temperature variation and erratic rainfall will <strong>change</strong> species composition and constraint germination
which will reduce forest production considerably.
6.6 Water Supply and Sanitation
<strong>The</strong> contexts <strong>of</strong> vulnerability <strong>of</strong> water and sanitation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> stimuli including variability and extremes
vary from region to region within the country. It is likely that the gradual <strong>change</strong> phenomena such as temperature
rise and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong> rainfall will lead to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity
intrusion will deteriorate water quality in the coastal region. Climate <strong>change</strong> related extreme events particularly
cyclone and storm surge will damage water supply and sanitation infrastructure particularly in the coastal region.
Increase in summer temperature will increase water demand in the urban area for drinking and bathing as well as
industrial water demand for cooling system. <strong>The</strong> competition <strong>of</strong> demand may aggravate the current conflict
between domestic and industrial water supplies in the urban areas. Situation will be different in the rural area
where availability and quality <strong>of</strong> rivers and artesian wells and pond water in the dry season will be deteriorated.
Shortage <strong>of</strong> safe drinking water is likely to become more pronounced, especially in the coastal belt and drought
prone areas in the north-west <strong>of</strong> the country. It is also likely that saline water boundary will be pushed more
towards inland and vast areas will face severe water crisis in future. People now having access to fresh water will no
longer enjoy this service. Due to cyclone and storm surge, huge volumes <strong>of</strong> saline water will come to the land area
and contaminate freshwater ponds. <strong>The</strong>se will severely damage the existing drinking water sources. For instance,
ponds for the Pond Sand Filters (PSF) and dug wells may be flooded with saline water. It may also contaminate
hand tube wells and other sources as well.
It is likely that unavailability and low quality will accentuate the prevailing drinking water crisis in the dry season.
This will impose hardship on women and children, who are responsible for collecting drinking water for their
families. Saline drinking water may also result in increase health hazards, especially for pregnant women. It appears
that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is likely to adversely affect women more than men.
Climate is controlled mainly by the combined effects <strong>of</strong> atmosphere and hydrosphere. Naturally water is affected
by <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, variability and extremes. Climate <strong>change</strong> affects water sector in different ways. In the monsoon,
excessive rainfall causes flood and water logging which results in scarcity <strong>of</strong> drinking water, water borne diseases’
outbreak, damage <strong>of</strong> crops, infrastructure (embankments, roads, educational and social institutes), reduces income
sources and livelihood options, and death <strong>of</strong> human beings and other animals. In the dry season, lack <strong>of</strong> rainfall
causes scarcity <strong>of</strong> water for drinking, household activities and irrigation as well as diseases like dehydration, scabies
and other infectious diseases. In the coastal area, cyclone and salinity intrusion affect fresh water sources severely.
Cyclone damages water infrastructure, increases contamination <strong>of</strong> fresh water sources with saline water, causes
water pollution which results in scarcity <strong>of</strong> drinking water and water for irrigation. Besides this, back water effects
and coastal inundation reduces sources <strong>of</strong> fresh water and thus food production and other livelihoods are also
affected.
Water and sanitation will face severe <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in future. Scarcity <strong>of</strong> drinking and irrigation water
will be the major issue which will affect lives and livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor. Excessive water in the monsoon will
damage settlements and infrastructure, disease outbreaks and even death at higher scale compared to the existing
situation, whereas lack <strong>of</strong> rainfall in the monsoon will cause scarcity <strong>of</strong> water for drinking and sanitation. Drought
will also create scarcity <strong>of</strong> water for irrigation which will affect crop production and decrease livelihood options <strong>of</strong>
the poor. Cyclone and salinity in the coastal region will increase damage <strong>of</strong> fresh water sources and agricultural
land which will also affect the livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor. Besides that, water borne diseases will affect human health
severely.
50
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6.7 Industry and Infrastructure
Climate <strong>change</strong>, variability and extremes have large <strong>impacts</strong> on Industry and Infrastructure. Flood and cyclone are
the two major climatic events which affect this sector severely. Flood has great <strong>impacts</strong> on small and medium
industries, including handloom. <strong>The</strong> key experts informed that handloom industries in Pabna, Sirajganj and Bogra
are severely affected by flood and river bank erosion almost every year. Investment by handloom owners is lost.
Loom workers lose their income for two to three months and <strong>of</strong>ten migrate to greater cities for carrying their
livelihoods. This creates huge pressure on cities’ utility services, health, sanitation and sewerage systems. <strong>The</strong>
women workers involved in handloom become fully unemployed during flood. <strong>The</strong>y cannot either earn or
migrate to other places. Other industries also suffer due to disruption <strong>of</strong> roads and communication systems,
power supply networks etc. Drought also affects industrial production causing health stress <strong>of</strong> worker, seasonal
migration due to scarcity <strong>of</strong> water and decreases in the number <strong>of</strong> workers in the drought season etc.
In the coastal area, industry and infrastructure are mainly affected by cyclone and storm surge. Climate <strong>change</strong>
events, especially cyclone have both direct and indirect <strong>impacts</strong> on industry. It destroys buildings <strong>of</strong> industries
and machineries in one hand; on the other hand, it destroys roads and other communication networks, power
supply networks, water supply networks, and causes health degradation and death <strong>of</strong> workers. Moreover, salinity
has large scale <strong>impacts</strong> on industry. <strong>The</strong> Khulna Paper Mill was closed due to increase water salinity <strong>of</strong> the river. It
also affects machineries and materials <strong>of</strong> industries and causes loss <strong>of</strong> large investments. Erratic rainfall causes
urban drainage congestion which also affects production <strong>of</strong> industries. Tourism industries are affected by coastal
erosion, coastal inundation, cyclone and storm surge, scarcity <strong>of</strong> fresh water availability in the coastal region etc.
<strong>The</strong> following two tables provide damage <strong>of</strong> different types <strong>of</strong> infrastructure due to major cyclones and floods
which struck Bangladesh.
Table 6.10 Damage to Infrastructure by Different Major Cyclones
Damage
Event
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
1991 Cyclone 2007 Cyclone ‘Sidr’ 2008 Cyclone
‘Rashmi’
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected District 19 30 17
No. <strong>of</strong> Most Affected District 12
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected Upazila 102 200 27
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected
Union/Pourashava/Municipality
9 (Municipality)
1,950
(Union/Paurashava)
94 (Union)
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected Family 20,64,026 20,64,026 92,701
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected People 1,07,98,275 89,23,259 3,21,831
Fully damaged crops 1,33,272acr. 7,42,826 acr. 775 acr.
Partially damaged crops 7,91,621 acr 17,30,116 acr 18,022 acr.
No. <strong>of</strong> fully damaged household 8,19,608 5,63,877 4,360
No. <strong>of</strong> partially damaged household 8,82,750 9,55,065 12,404
No. <strong>of</strong> death people 1,38,882 3,363 7
No. <strong>of</strong> Injured People 1,39,058 55,282 --
No. <strong>of</strong> Livestock death 10,61,029
17,78,507 ----
No. <strong>of</strong> fully damaged educational
institutions
3,865
4,231
----
No. <strong>of</strong> partiall ydamaged educational
institutions
5,801
12,723
Fullydamaged roads 764 miles (earthen) 1,714 km
Partially damaged roads 6,361 km 6,361 km 212 km
No. <strong>of</strong> damaged bridges/culverts, 496 1,687 -----
Embankment 707 miles 1,875 km 28 km
No. <strong>of</strong> damaged trees ----- 40,65,316 -----
Source: DMB, 2008
107
51

Table 6.11 Damage to Infrastructure by Recent Floods
Damage Event 2004 Flood 2007 Flood 2008 Flood
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected District
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected Upazila
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected Pourashava,
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected Union
Total Affected Area
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected Family
No. <strong>of</strong> Affected People's
Fully damaged crops
Partially damaged crops
No. <strong>of</strong> fully damaged household
No. <strong>of</strong> partially damaged household
No. <strong>of</strong> death people
No. <strong>of</strong> Injured People
No. <strong>of</strong> Livestock death
No. <strong>of</strong> fully damaged educational
institutions
No. <strong>of</strong> partially damaged educational
institutions
Fully damaged roads
Partially damaged roads
No. <strong>of</strong> damaged bridges/culverts,
Embankment (Fully Damaged)
Embankment (Partially Damaged)
Source: DMB, 2008 and Relief Web, 2008
52
39 39 22
265 254 86
--- 67 06
2,492 1965 481
21,420 Sq. km 32000 3,394.13
74,68,128 2264933 2,25,009
3,63,37,944 1,05,72,145
9,74,461
16,05,958 acr. 7,55,047 acr. 21,62 8 acr.
10,38,176 acr 7,62,653 acr 3,26,71 7 acr.
1,55,182 62,96 5 11,44 8
1,20,45,484 8,81,92 2 75,45 3
277 3,363 7
55,28 2 --
4,973 871 ----
1,155 510 49
12,893 7,040 405
6,641 km 2,869 km 58 km
26,884 km 1,714 km 1,912.1 km
5,478 km 7,164 km 97 km
2,215 km
87 km 8.55 km
731 km 99.35 km
6.8 Health
Many scientists already anticipated that more frequent and more intense and severe weather events will result in
increased deaths, injuries and disease in developed countries like Canada, but the biggest impact will be felt in
low-lying, heavily populated areas such as Bangladesh, particularly when coupled with sea level rise attendant
upon global warming (Canadian Association <strong>of</strong> Physicians for the Environment, 2004). According to IPCC (2001),
the global warming would increase the vector borne and water borne diseases in the tropics. Best-estimate
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenario indicates that the incidences <strong>of</strong> dengue may increase threefold in Indonesia (ADB,
1994b in IPCC, 1997). In fact, the increasing trend and variation <strong>of</strong> dengue occurrences are consistent with the
corresponding trend and variation <strong>of</strong> temperature, which infers that the anticipated future warming in
Bangladesh might increase the dengue occurrence (NAPA Study note).
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

6.8.1 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Health- Perception
Human health suffers from different climatic variability and shocks in different ways. <strong>The</strong> experts informed that
health is affected, especially during and after shocks like flood and cyclone. Slow onsets <strong>of</strong> climatic system have
also <strong>impacts</strong> on health. Flood affects sources <strong>of</strong> drinking water and sanitation system through contamination
which lead to out break <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea, cholera, skin diseases including scabies, drowning, snake bite and even
death. Cyclone, sea level rise and salinity intrusion cause outbreaks <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea, cholera and other water borne
diseases, use <strong>of</strong> saline water causes hypertension, increase blood pressure, corrosive effects due to salt in air,
scabies and other skin diseases. Besides that, drought, erratic rainfall and temperature variation increase vector
borne diseases, heat stroke, malnutrition, fever etc. Cold wave creates respiratory problem, especially that <strong>of</strong>
children and the old.
It is already proven that different types <strong>of</strong> diseases breakout during and after flood. In future, these <strong>impacts</strong> will
be more frequent and severe since intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> flood will increase. Similarly, cyclone and storm
surge will affect human health and lives severely with the increasing intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> cyclone. Besides
this, temperature variation, erratic rainfall will increase incidence <strong>of</strong> vector borne diseases like dengue, malaria.
Lack <strong>of</strong> fresh water in drought prone and coastal areas will increase malnutrition, extreme poverty, bring <strong>change</strong>s
in occupation, increase migration etc. <strong>The</strong> following table shows the level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on health and subsequently
on poverty and economic growth.
Table 6.12 Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Health
Key issues
Health
Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts
Poverty Economic Growth
Present Future Present Future Present Future
Flood, Erratic Rainfall Moderate Severe Low Moderate Very low
Low
Drought
Low Moderate
Very
low
Low Very low
Low
Cyclone Moderate Severe Low Moderate Low Moderate
Coastal Inundation,
Salinity
Low Moderate Low Moderate Very low Low
Source: Workshop Exercise
6.8.2 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Health- observed <strong>change</strong>s
Climate induced natural hazards are major concerns in addressing health <strong>impacts</strong>. In a massive flood in 1988, 30
million people were affected in the country where 5.37 million were affected by diarrhoea. In 1998, more than 30
million people were affected by flood but the incidence <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea has been decreased by more than 50%
compared to 1988. This was mainly due to extensive measures taken by the government. In 90s, the government
<strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has undertaken different effective measures to prevent diarrhoea. <strong>The</strong> major programmes are
National Campaign on Health Awareness, Oral Rehydration, Increased Water Supply and Sanitation coverage etc.
Besides this, the government has developed a National Policy for Water Supply and Sanitation in 1998 to
promote use <strong>of</strong> safe water and sanitation practices. Moreover, some national NGOs like BRAC, Proshika, NGO
Forum for Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation etc. have taken massive awareness programmes on health and
awareness. But from 2000 to 2007, the incidence <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea shows an increasing trend, though most <strong>of</strong> the
programmes are still operating. This is because <strong>of</strong> increased frequency <strong>of</strong> flood. In 2007, the incidences were
highest in the last six years may be due to flood and recurrent floods. However, the incidence <strong>of</strong> diarrhoea is high
in all the flood year. This indicates that the incidences may increase with increase <strong>of</strong> flood events. It may be noted
again and again that the poor always lose more but recover less in any extreme event.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
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Table 6.13 Incidence <strong>of</strong> Diarrhea during major flood events
Malaria is one <strong>of</strong> the major public health problems in Bangladesh. Out <strong>of</strong> 64 districts, 13 bordering districts in the
east and northeast facing the Indian states <strong>of</strong> Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya and part <strong>of</strong> Myanmar belong to the
high-risk malaria zone. A total <strong>of</strong> 14.7 million populations are at high-risk <strong>of</strong> malaria in the country, although
there is sporadic incidence <strong>of</strong> malaria in other parts <strong>of</strong> the country as well. An estimated 1.0 million clinical cases
are treated every year while 61,495 laboratories confirmed cases were reported during 2002 from routine
surveillance. During 2002, a total <strong>of</strong> 598 deaths were reported. Plasmodium falciparum is the predominant
infection (61-71%) and An. dirus is the principal vector (WHO, 2004). <strong>The</strong> available literature says that Malaria’s
sensitivity to <strong>climate</strong> is illustrated in desert and highland fringe areas where rainfall and temperature,
respectively are critical parameters for disease transmission (WHO, WMO, UNEP, 2002). <strong>The</strong> occurrence <strong>of</strong> malaria
in 1997 in Chittagong, Khagrachari, Bandarban, Cox’s Bazar area critically supports this hypothesis (HPSR, 2000).
Temper ature ( C)
Dengue is another major <strong>climate</strong> sensitive disease in Bangladesh. It usually spreads over tropical and sub-tropical
region. According to Koopman et al. (1991), an increase <strong>of</strong> 3–4˚C in average temperature may double the
reproduction rate <strong>of</strong> the dengue virus. It is also evident that erratic rainfall and monsoon flooding are strongly
correlated for breeding Aedes mosquito, especially in urban, fringe and high elevated areas (source:
www.geocities.com). Breaking News <strong>of</strong> Dengue Website, July 2001 states that Intermittent rains and reactivation
<strong>of</strong> aedes larvae from the unclean breeding sites are believed to be the reasons <strong>of</strong> outbreak <strong>of</strong> dengue. It is
reported that 3 billion world population are at risk <strong>of</strong> dengue fever and 60% <strong>of</strong> them are located in the 10 southeast
asian countries. Bangladesh is the 7th country in south-east asia with DHF reported in 2000. In 2001, it was
reported that 60,000 people had become the carrier <strong>of</strong> dengue (Breaking News, Dengue Website, 9 August 2009).
Children are the most sufferers <strong>of</strong> dengue epidemic. <strong>The</strong> following table shows the historical outbreak <strong>of</strong> dengue
fever in Bangladesh.
54
32. 50
32. 00
31. 50
31. 00
30. 50
30. 00
29. 50
29. 00
28. 50
28. 00
Major Flood
Trend <strong>of</strong> average maximum temperature and incidences <strong>of</strong> malaria
(1988-2008)
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Year
Affected Population (in
million)
Figure 6.2: Relationship between Temperature and Malarial Incidences
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Incidence <strong>of</strong> Diarrhea (in
million)
1988 30 5.37
1998 30.6 2.06
2000 3 1.56
2004 36 2.33
2007 10 2.34
2008 1 1.9
Incidences <strong>of</strong>
ma laria
Ma x t emp
Ma laria
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history in Bangladesh
Period Description
1964 First documented out break <strong>of</strong> dengue in Bangladesh
1977 – 78 Few cases <strong>of</strong> DF were found in a Clandestine Survey by IEDCR
1982 – 83 Out <strong>of</strong> 2456 blood samples taken, 278 found DEN- 1
1984 – 86 21 samples collected, 3 found positive by HI Test.
Up to 1986 Major cities were free to DHF.
1997 Cross sectional serological survey at CMCH tested 255-paired sera in which 35
were positive cases
1999 Few death cases were reported in DHF
2000 Currently an epidemic has been reported in this country
2001 Epidemic has been reported in this country.
2002 Epidemic has been reported in this country.
Source: NAPA study note
In Bangladesh, out break <strong>of</strong> dengue was first documented in 1964 but epidemic was reported in 2000. Dengue
remained almost unknown to the country due to lack <strong>of</strong> knowledge, technology, research, skilled pr<strong>of</strong>essionals
etc. <strong>The</strong> table 6.15 shows that death from dengue has decreased over the period. This is mainly due to increase in
knowledge, awareness, research and measures taken by different public and private sectors.
Table 6.15: Dengue Incidences in Bangladesh
Source: www.geocities.com
Year Dengue Case Death CFR%
2000 5,550/10,000 93/100 1.7%/1.0%
2001 2,430/25,000 44/100 1.8%/0.4%
2002 6,132/60,000 58/100 0.9%/0.2%
2003 886 10 1.1
2004 2000 7 0.4
2005 500 + up to Oct - -
Total 17,498/95,000 212/300 1.2%/0.3%
6.9 Education
Flood has multi dimensional <strong>impacts</strong> on education. Impacts <strong>of</strong> slow onset or <strong>climate</strong> variability on education are
not remarkable but the rapid onsets like flood and cyclone have severe <strong>impacts</strong> on education. It damages school
buildings and houses, displaces children and detaches them from schools, loss <strong>of</strong> study materials, use <strong>of</strong> schools
as shelters in the non-flooded areas hamper continuation <strong>of</strong> education, and increases the rate <strong>of</strong> dropout. In a
sense, education is totally disrupted during flood in the affected areas. Cyclone is another devastating shock for
education. It damages education infrastructure, increases poverty, increases drop out rate etc. Drought has also
negative <strong>impacts</strong> on education. Children <strong>of</strong> the drought affected areas are engaged in income generating
activities and suffer from malnutrition. Scarcity <strong>of</strong> drinking and other water resources also lead to low attendance
<strong>of</strong> the children in their schools.
Key expert interviews show that flood and cyclone will have very severe <strong>impacts</strong> on education by damaging
school buildings and study materials, displacing children from one place to another and so on. <strong>The</strong>se <strong>impacts</strong> will
affect the poor very severely because the rich could migrate and settle in the cities but the poor do not have that
capacity. Salinity will affect education in a different way, i.e. opportunity <strong>of</strong> shrimp farming and fry collection will
encourage the poor children to be engaged in these activities to carry on with their livelihood.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
55

Key issues Probable Impacts Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Identified
<strong>impacts</strong>
Poverty Economic growth
Flood
School building will damage Book
and other materials lost
Very Severe Very Severe Very Severe
Drought - - - -
Cyclone
Destruction <strong>of</strong> infrastructure
School damage Material lose
Very Severe Very Severe Very Severe
Coastal inundation
Salinity
56
Table 6.16 Impacts <strong>of</strong> different disasters on Education Infrastructure and subsequent <strong>impacts</strong>
People who are educated,
richthey will migrate to better
citiesor country, but the
poor,uneducated and unskilled
people will suffer severely
Opportunity <strong>of</strong> shrimp
farmingand fry collection has
increased, but the overall
situation will be severe
Very Severe Very Severe Moderate
Very Severe Very Low Very Low
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Cy clone Sidr: A C as e Study
An estimated 5,927 educational institutions were fully destroyed or partially damaged by Cyclone Sidr, resulting
in a total value <strong>of</strong> damage and losses <strong>of</strong> BDT 4.7 billion.
However, the education sector's needs are approximately BDT 7.8 billion (US$ 113 million), due primarily to
increased cost <strong>of</strong> constructing new schools that would also serve as emergency shelters.
<strong>The</strong> highest numbers <strong>of</strong> fully destroyed primary schools are located in Barguna (230), Pirojpur (149), Patuakhali
(98), Barisal (91), and Bagerhat (68). <strong>The</strong> highest numbers <strong>of</strong> partially destroyed primary schools are in Barisal
(632), Patuakhali (550), Pirojpur (401), Jhalakathi (340), and Barguna (335). <strong>The</strong> worst affected; both fully and
partially destroyed, schools are in Barisal (723).
According to the initial assessment, a total <strong>of</strong> 9,655 educational institutions have been fully or partially destroyed
in 19 <strong>of</strong> the 30 cyclone affected districts. Table below summarizes the extent <strong>of</strong> destruction to Formal as well as
Non-Formal Educational Institutions
Primary Education
Subtotal Primary Education
Secondary Education
Institutions
Subtotal Secondary Education
Non-formal Education
Subtotal Non-formal Education
TOTAL 2429
Source: GoB, 2008
Formal
Non-formal
Formal
Non-formal
Pre primary
learning centers
Adult Literacy
centers
Post literacy
Education
Centers
Type <strong>of</strong> Destruction
Full Destruction Partial
784
435
1219
786
58
844
102
72
192
366
Destruction
3705
254
3959
2942
83
3025
75
In the twelve badly affected districts (namely Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Gopalgonj, Jhalakathi, Khulna,
Madaripur, Patuakhalki, Priojpur, Satkhira, and Shariatpur) an estimated 4,879 registered secondary and higher
secondary schools, colleges and madrashahs existed prior to the disaster. Out <strong>of</strong> these, a total <strong>of</strong> 3,736 (76.6
percent) were either fully destroyed or partially damaged, <strong>of</strong> which 787 (16 percent) were fully destroyed. It was
found that most <strong>of</strong> the affected institutions were made <strong>of</strong> C.I. sheet ro<strong>of</strong>ing with wooden pillar and bamboo
fencing.
<strong>The</strong> Ministry <strong>of</strong> Education has decided to undertake a short-run program to resume academic activities in the
cyclone-torn institutions by erecting temporary structures, providing books and study materials, waiving
examination fees and rescheduling public examinations. In the long run, the Government has planned to
construct academic building-cum-cyclone shelters in the cyclone affected coastal areas.
58
109
242
7226
57

Climate Change Poverty
and Economic Growth

7. Relationship among <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty, economic growth and sustainable development is
multidimensional and complex. It is recognized in the scientific and negotiating community that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
induced <strong>impacts</strong> will put additional challenges to many <strong>of</strong> the Millennium Development Goals and targets in
general, and poverty and hunger, and environmental sustainability in particular.
It is revealed from the National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action (NAPA) <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh that different climatic
elements will impact different sectors in a different scale by different geographical areas. <strong>The</strong> following table
shows different climatic elements and their <strong>impacts</strong> by different regions and their link with different strategic
blocks <strong>of</strong> Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and Millennium Development Goals.
Table 7.1: Climatic Elements, critical vulnerable areas and impacted sectors and Links with PRSP and MDGs
Climate and
Related Elements
Temperature rise
and drought
Sea Level Riseand
Salinity Intrusion
Floods
Cyclone and
Storm Surge1
Drainage
congestion
Critical Vulnerable
Areas
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Most Impacted Sectors Links with PRSP Links with
MDGs
North-west Agriculture (crop, livestock,
fisheries) Water
Energy Health
Coastal Area
Island
Central Region
North East Region
Char land
Coastal and
Marine Zone
Coastal Area
Urban South
West
Source: Modified from NAPA Bangladesh
7.1 Distribution <strong>of</strong> Poverty
Agriculture (crop, fisheries,
livestock) Water (water
logging, drinking water,
urban) Human settlement
Energy Health
Agriculture (crop, fisheries,
livestock) Water (urban,
industry) Infrastructure
Human settlement Health
Disaster Energy
Marine Fishing Infrastructure
Human settlement Life and
property
Water (Navigation)
Agriculture (crop)
Strategic Block I, II,
III, IV & V
Strategic Block I, II,
III, IV & V
Strategic Block I, II,
III, IV & V
Strategic Block I, II,
III, IV & V v
- -
Goal 1, 3 and 7
Goal 1, 3 and 7
Goal 1, 2, 3
and 7
Goal 1, 2, 3
and 7
Despite the recent macro economic achievements, poverty is still pervasive and endemic in Bangladesh.
According to the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh Bureau <strong>of</strong> Statistics (BBS), using the most
commonplace definition, about half <strong>of</strong> the population could be considered poor in the mid-1990s, while a
quarter <strong>of</strong> the population could be considered extreme poor (WB, 1997). Among them, the bottom 10 percent <strong>of</strong>
the population are steeped in severe deprivation so much that they require substantial transfers to keep them
from starvation and to reach a level that is considered micro-credit worthy (Farashuddin, 2001).
Levels <strong>of</strong> poverty vary substantially across the country and strong correlation was found with spatial distribution
61

62
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

<strong>of</strong> food insecurity. <strong>The</strong> United Nations World Food
Programme has reported that the poorest upazilas can be
found in the north-west, the coastal belt, Mymensingh,
Netrakona, Bangdarban and Rangamati districts. In terms <strong>of</strong>
absolute numbers, districts with more than one million
people living in extreme poverty include Sirajganj, Naogaon,
Bogra, Mymensingh and Chittagong (GOB and FAO, 2004).
Given the size <strong>of</strong> population and poverty incidence by
administrative divisions, it shows that the largest number <strong>of</strong>
poor lives in Rajshahi followed by Dhaka, Chittagong,
Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet districts. <strong>The</strong> following Table
provides information about density <strong>of</strong> the poor by divisions.
Recent analysis by General Economic Division revealed that
the proportion <strong>of</strong> poor is higher compared to its proportion
<strong>of</strong> population in the lagging divisions. On the other hand,
proportion <strong>of</strong> poor is lower compared to its proportion <strong>of</strong>
population in the forward divisions. In 2005, the proportion
<strong>of</strong> population in Khulna division was 11.68% and the
proportion <strong>of</strong> poor was 13.3 %. <strong>The</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> population
in Barisal division was 6.42% whereas the proportion <strong>of</strong> poor
was 8.3%. <strong>The</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> population was 24.08% in
Rajshahi division and the proportion <strong>of</strong> poor was 30.8%. In
Dhaka division the proportion <strong>of</strong> population was 32.23%
and the proportion <strong>of</strong> poor was 25.8%. <strong>The</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> population in Chittagong division was 19.25% while
the proportion <strong>of</strong> poor was 5.4%. This distribution holds true for all districts as well.
Table 7.2: Number and Density <strong>of</strong> Poor people by Region 2005
Re gion
Square
Km
Area Population Poor
% Crore %
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Poverty
Incidence%
Population
density/Sq. km
Crore % Poor All
Barisal 13297 9.01 0.89 6.42 52.0 0.46 8.3 346 669
Chittagong 33771 22.88 2.67 19.25 34.0 0.91 16.4 270 790
Dhaka 31120 21.09 4.47 32.23 32.0 1.43 25.8 460 143 6
Khulna 22273 15.09 1.62 11.68 45.7 0.74 13.3 332 727
Rajsh ahi 34514 23.39 3.34 24.08 51.2 1.71 30.8 495 967
Sylhet 12596 8.54 0.88 6.34 33.8 0.30 5.4 238 699
Bangladesh 417571 100 13.87 100 40.0 5.55 100 376 940
Source: BBS
7.2 Intensity and Severity <strong>of</strong> Poverty
Like the poverty incidence the intensity <strong>of</strong> poverty, measured by the poverty gap, is much higher in Barisal,
Rajshahi and the Khulna division. Similar is the case with the severity <strong>of</strong> poverty, as measured by this squared
poverty gap. However, one observation can be made with respect to incidence, intensity and severity <strong>of</strong> poverty
across Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet. Although, incidence <strong>of</strong> poverty in Chittagong is higher than that <strong>of</strong> Dhaka
and Sylhet, its intensity and severity are lower than those <strong>of</strong> the other two divisions respectively. It implies that
poor people in Chittagong are better <strong>of</strong>f than their counter parts in Sylhet and Dhaka.
63

Table 7.3: Poverty Gap and Squared Poverty gap by Region 2005
Division
7.3 Climate Change Impacts on Poverty and Economic Growth
Impacts <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty and economic growth has been assessed based on perception and
quantitative analysis. <strong>The</strong> quantitative analysis has been done based on dependence <strong>of</strong> household on different
sectors and exposure to different climatic events and their frequency. <strong>The</strong> following section provides summary <strong>of</strong>
findings.
7.3.1 Agriculture
<strong>The</strong> study has made an attempt to assess adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, variability and extremes on poverty
and economic growth related to crop agriculture. Discussion with experts focuses on shocks and time <strong>of</strong>
occurrence. It has been revealed that 50% reduction <strong>of</strong> crop production would increase poverty at the same
percentage. Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on economic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce
12% <strong>of</strong> GDP contribution for that particular time. Effects <strong>of</strong> cyclone are more severe than flood. <strong>The</strong> experts
agreed that 60% damage <strong>of</strong> crop by a cyclone increases poverty at the same percentage affecting their resources
and livelihoods, and decreases economic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty
eradication and hunger) is badly affected and pushed backward. <strong>The</strong> IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that
the intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> both flood and cyclone will increase in future. So, these two climatic shocks are a
major challenge for Bangladesh in implementing PRSP and attaining the MDGs.
<strong>The</strong> consultation workshop with the key experts suggested that <strong>change</strong>s in flood and cyclone characteristics will
affect crop agriculture very severely, which will affect poverty at the same scale. <strong>The</strong> poor will suffer mostly
because they have less capacity to respond to these shocks. <strong>The</strong> economic growth <strong>of</strong> the particular sector will
also be affected considerably. <strong>The</strong> experts suggested that reduction may rise up to 70-80% and <strong>impacts</strong> on
economic growth could be 17%. Moreover, drought and erratic rainfall will also reduce crop production by 40%
and 30% respectively, which will affect poverty moderately and economic growth at a lower scale. <strong>The</strong> following
table shows the level <strong>of</strong> present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on crop agriculture, poverty and
economic growth.
Table 7.4: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on crop agriculture, poverty and
economic growth.
Climatic Events
64
Poverty Gap Squared Poverty Gap
Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban
Barisal 15.5 16.3 10.7 6.3 6.6 4.3
Chittagong 6.3 6.5 5.6 1.7 1.7 1.6
Dhaka 6.9 8.6 4.0 2.1 2.7 1.1
Khulna 10.8 10.4 12.3 3.5 3.2 4.6
Rajshahi 11.9 12.0 11.4 3.8 3.8 3.9
Sylhet 7.2 7.6 4.5 2.1 2.2 1.5
National
Source: BBS
9.0 9.8 6.5 2.9 3.1 2.1
Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts (%)
Identified Impacts Poverty Economic growth
Present Future Present Future Present Future
(2100)
(2100)
(2100)
Flood 50 80 50 80 12 17
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Climatic Events
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Level <strong>of</strong> Impacts (%)
Identified Impacts Poverty Economic growth
Drought 25 40 8 30 2 5
Cyclone 60 70 60 70 15 17
Coastal inundation 10 15 5 8 1 2
Erratic rainfall 20 30 10 20 2 4
Temperature variation 05 7 2 5 1 2
Heat wave - 2 - 1 - 1
Fogginess 10 15 2 3 1 1
Source: Consultation workshop with key experts, 2008
7.3.2 Fisheries
<strong>The</strong> workshops and key experts’ interviews revealed that flood and river bank erosion and cyclone and storm
surge have severe <strong>impacts</strong> on fisheries. It has been stated that these <strong>impacts</strong> affect poverty and economic growth
moderately. <strong>The</strong> experts explained that these shocks damage aquaculture infrastructure and cause fish loss. This
leads to loss <strong>of</strong> livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor fishermen and decrease nutrition status <strong>of</strong> the rural poor. Moreover,
frequent warnings <strong>of</strong> cyclone lead the fishermen to stay at home for longer periods and thus their income
decreased which increased their poverty level. Besides that, drought, salinity intrusion and erratic behaviour <strong>of</strong>
rainfall affect moderately and as a result poverty and economic growth are also affected moderately. It is noted
here that poverty includes only the poor who are dependent on this particular sector. Similarly, the economic
growth includes only the growth <strong>of</strong> this particular sector and not national economic growth.
<strong>The</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on the fisheries sector will increase the poverty <strong>of</strong> the particular livelihood group
and economic growth <strong>of</strong> the sector. Severe <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> flood, drought, cyclone and storm surge, sea level rise and
salinity intrusion will affect poverty <strong>of</strong> the livelihood group severely as stated by the key experts <strong>of</strong> the fisheries
sector. Income <strong>of</strong> the poor, especially who are dependent on fisheries will reduce considerably. Moreover, they will
suffer from malnutrition due to reduction <strong>of</strong> fishing. Economic growth <strong>of</strong> fisheries sector will also be affected
moderately.
Table 7.5: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on fisheries, poverty and economic growth
Key issues
Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Identified <strong>impacts</strong> Poverty Economic growth
Present
Future
(2100)
Present
Future
(2100)
Present
Future
(2100)
Flood and river bank erosion Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate
Drought Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate
Sea level rise - Severe - Severe - Severe
Salinity Intrusion Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Erratic Rainfall Moderate Low Low Low Low Low
Temperature Variation Low Moderate Low Low Low Low
Heat waveave - Low - Low - Low
Cold Wave Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fogginess Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
Incidence <strong>of</strong> Pest and diseases - Moderate - Low - VeryLow
Source: Key experts’ workshop
65

7.3.3 Livestock
Livestock rearing is an important source <strong>of</strong> income and livelihood options for the rural poor <strong>of</strong> the country.
Pertinently, the impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on livestock affects the livelihood <strong>of</strong> the rural poor. It reduces livelihood
opportunities, income and employment opportunities <strong>of</strong> the poor villagers. <strong>The</strong> experts <strong>of</strong> livestock sector
perceive that severe <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and extremes on livestock affect poverty moderately. But the
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> sea level rise affects poverty and economic growth <strong>of</strong> this particular sector severely as stated by the
key experts. Drought, salinity intrusion and heat wave affect the sector moderately and consequently, both
poverty and economic growth are moderately affected. Thus, the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on livestock affect
poverty reduction activities and in attaining the MDGs.
It is difficult to have a perception on the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, variability and extremes on livestock because
there is no baseline information on these issues. But it is easily perceived that death and production <strong>of</strong> livestock
will decrease considerably with increasing intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> shocks. Production <strong>of</strong> livelihood will also be
hampered due to decrease <strong>of</strong> grazing lands, increase in death <strong>of</strong> livestocks etc. <strong>The</strong>se will lead to decrease in the
health status affecting meat and milk production.
Table 7.6: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on livestock, poverty and economic growth
66
Key issues
Flood and river
bank erosion
Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Identified <strong>impacts</strong> Poverty Economic growth
Present Future Present Future Present Future
Severe - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe
Drought Moderate - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe
Cyclone and
Storm surge
Severe - Severe Severe Severe Severe
Sea level rise Severe - Severe Severe Severe Severe
Salinity Intrusion Moderate - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe
Erratic Rainfall Low - Low Low Low Low
Temperature
Variation
Moderate - Moderate - Moderate -
Heat wave Moderate - Moderate Low Moderate Low
Cold Wave Moderate - Moderate Very Low Moderate Very Low
Fogginess - - - - - -
Incidence <strong>of</strong> Pest
and diseases
Source: Key experts’ workshop
7.3.4 Forestry
Moderate Moderate Moderate
<strong>The</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> extreme weather events on forestry affect poverty and economic growth in different ways.
Poverty is severely affected by cyclone in the context <strong>of</strong> severity <strong>of</strong> impact on forestry. Livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the poor
and marginal communities in the forest areas, especially in the Sundarbans area mostly depend on forest
resources. Very pertinently, <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> shocks on forestry affect the poor <strong>of</strong> that particular livelihood group. <strong>The</strong>
experts perceive that salinity intrusion severely affect forest trees and resources especially in the coastal region.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

This has moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic growth. <strong>The</strong> other shocks like flood and drought have
moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on forestry which has low <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic growth. Besides this, erratic
rainfall and temperature variation have low <strong>impacts</strong> on forestry and lower <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty.
Sea level rise will affect forest coverage in the coastal areas very severely in future as stated by the key experts.
<strong>The</strong> reason behind this is submergence <strong>of</strong> brackish forest species and disappearance <strong>of</strong> inland trees and plants
due to increase soil salinity by sea level rise. Flood, cyclone and salinity intrusion will have severe impact on forest
resources. Poverty will be affected severely because the livelihood group depending on forest resources will lose
their income source. Economic growth <strong>of</strong> forest sector will also be hampered severely due to increasing
frequency and intensity <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> induced shocks.
Table 7.7: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on forestry, poverty and economic growth
Key issues
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Identified <strong>impacts</strong> Poverty Economic growth
Present
Future
(2100)
Present
Future
(2100)
Present
Future
(2100)
Flood and river bank erosion Moderate Severe Low Severe Low Severe
Drought Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Severe Severe Very
Severe
Sea level rise Moderate Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Low Severe Low Severe
Salinity Intrusion Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate
Erratic Rainfall Low Very
Low
Temperature Variation Low Moderate
Heat wave Very
Low
Cold Wave - Very
Low
Fogginess - Very
Low
Low Very
Low
Very
Low
Severe
Low Low Low Low
- Very
Low
- Very
Low
Low Very
Low
Low
- Very Low
- Very Low
Incidence <strong>of</strong> Pest and diseases - - - - - -
Source: Key experts’ workshop
7.3.5 Water and Sanitation
Water is such an element that any effect on water affects development <strong>of</strong> any sector. Both slow and rapid onsets
related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> have direct impact on water. <strong>The</strong> consultation workshops and interviews state that sea
level rise affects water very severely, whereas flood and river bank erosion, cyclone and storm surges and heat
wave affect severely. <strong>The</strong> results <strong>of</strong> these effects affect poverty and economic growth moderately because crop
damage, disease outbreaks, loss <strong>of</strong> livelihood options, damage <strong>of</strong> infrastructure increases poverty affecting
economic growth <strong>of</strong> different sectors.
67

Effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on water will be more severe compared to existing situation. Moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on
water and sanitation will turn into severe to very severe as stated by the key experts. It is also noted that these
<strong>impacts</strong> will affect poverty at greater scale.
Table 7.8: Present and future <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different climatic events on water and sanitation, poverty and
economic growth
7.3.6 Health
It is revealed from the consultations that severe <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> flood, cyclone and sea level rise on health affect
poverty and economic growth severely causing malnutrition and health degradation. Drought and erratic
rainfall have moderate <strong>impacts</strong> on health and affects poverty and economic growth at a low to moderate scale.
<strong>The</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on health affect poverty because the poor has less capacity to respond to those <strong>impacts</strong>.
7.3.7 Education
Education is one <strong>of</strong> the major elements for accelerating poverty eradication and economic growth. Pertinently,
impact on education will affect poverty eradication and economic growth. <strong>The</strong> consultations reveal that severe
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> flood and cyclone on education affects poverty and economic growth severely whereas a moderate
impact <strong>of</strong> sea level rise’s affect on education affects poverty and economic growth at a low scale.
7.4 Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth
This study made an attempt to analyse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty and economic growth against
different <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> vulnerability contexts, particularly extreme events. It has followed the following logic to
assess <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic growth.
Impacts on Poverty = Level <strong>of</strong> Exposure = Frequency <strong>of</strong> Hazard x Number <strong>of</strong> exposed household <strong>of</strong> different
livelihood categories
Impacts on Economic Growth = Sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> different sectors. But due to lack <strong>of</strong> data on <strong>impacts</strong> it has only
considered agriculture as a first step to understand the problems and also consider flood as one <strong>of</strong> the key
hazards.
68
Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Key issues
Identified <strong>impacts</strong> Poverty Economic growth
Present Future
Present Future (2100 ) Present Future
(2100)
(2100)
Flood and river bank erosion Severe Very Moderate Very Moderate Very
Severe
Severe
Severe
Drought Moderate Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe
Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Very
Severe
Sea level rise Very
Severe
Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Severe Very
Severe
Salinity Intrusion Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Erratic Rainfall Moderate Very
Severe
Low Very
Severe
Low Very
Severe
Temperature Variation - -
-
- -
-
Heat wave Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe
Cold Wave - Severe - Severe - Severe
Fogginess
- -
-
- -
-
Incidence <strong>of</strong> Pest and diseases - - - - - -
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

7.4.1 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Hazards on Sectors
Table 7.9 shows loss <strong>of</strong> Boro crop production by cyclone, Storm Surge and Hail storm over the last 10 years. In
2000 and 2004, wind based shocks affected Boro production in coastal districts and north-east region and
caused 6.35% and 10.65% loss <strong>of</strong> production respectively. <strong>The</strong>refore, the increasing trend <strong>of</strong> these hazards will
eventually affect the Boro rice production more intensively in future.
Table 7.9: Damage to Boro rice Production due to Cyclone, Storm Surge and Hail storm (in M. Ton)
Region
1994 1995
Sylhet
514610 555980
Chittagong 269000 300320
Noakhali 186040 232540
Faridpur 200400 219870
Barisal
65860 77410
Jessore 364600 424040
Khulna 114660 120510
Patuakhali
Total
19530 21500
Production 1734700 1952170
Loss
0
0
Production
+ loss
% <strong>of</strong> Loss
1734700 1952170
Source: Agricultural Statistics, 2005
Usually Aus and Aman rice are affected by flood on a regular basis. In the year 1998 and 2004, two catastrophic
floods occurred and damaged the Aus and Aman production significantly. Available data shows that Aus
production was decreased by 14.53% and 9.12% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. While, Aman production
decreased by 10.70% and 8.86% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. <strong>The</strong>se two main crops are affected and damages
are caused at different extents by flood almost every year. However, historical data <strong>of</strong> flood shows that intensity
and frequency <strong>of</strong> severe flood is in increasing trend which reflects higher damage <strong>of</strong> these two main crops. Table
7.10 to 7.12 shows loss <strong>of</strong> production <strong>of</strong> Boro, Aus and Aman due to flood.
Table 7.10: Loss <strong>of</strong> Boro Rice due to Flood (in M Ton)
Year Production
Boro
Loss Loss + Production % <strong>of</strong> Loss
1994 6538170 139080 6677250 2.08
1995 7221020
1996 7459920
1997 8137330
1998 10551900 23558
1999 0
2000 11920940
2001 11765500
2002 12221850
2003 12837230
2004 13837060
1996
568630
251090
243810
242950
88110
447600
134680
25860
2002730
25012
2027742
1.23
Source: Year Book <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Statistics, 2005
1997
597500
289490
262710
251600
95830
593260
138150
28510
2257050
2257050
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
-
-
-
-
-
Year
1998
701090
376170
321060
342800
194350
732810
214930
13660
2896870
2896870
2000
762830
666350
543080
331350
608300
517220
664430
591110
4684670
317460
5002130
6.35
2001
745360
676750
513710
323150
581460
616810
691480
524420
4673140
18440
4691580
0.39
2002
800970
681580
552520
284220
623030
649750
775420
476420
4843910
247760
5091670
4.87
2003
848410
697760
551230
343150
596650
787060
720670
536,560
5081490
15610
5097100
0.31
10575458 0.22
2004
675563
665129
359728
221808
440382
618543
651199
539576
4171928
497220
4669148
10.65
69

Table 7.11: Loss <strong>of</strong> AUSRice due to Flood (in M Ton)
Year Production
Loss
Loss + Production
% <strong>of</strong> Loss
1993
0
71835 71835
1994 1790670
31565
1822235
1.73
1995 1676020
176970
1852990
9.55
1996 1870750
12558
1883308
0.67
1997 1874730
30117
1904847
1.58
1998 1616880
274875
1891755
14.53
1999
26510
26510
2000
8979640
-
8979640
2001 17808690
27540
17836230
0.15
2002 35617380
52030
35669410
0.15
2003 71234760
177880
71412640
0.25
2004 1500470
150590
1651060
9.12
Source: Year Book <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Statistics, 2005
Table 7.12: Loss <strong>of</strong> AMAN Rice due to Flood (in M.Ton)
Aman
Year Production Loss Loss + Production % <strong>of</strong> Loss
1993
115313
1994
8503950
3535
8507485
0.04
1995
8790330
541995
9332325
5.81
1996
9551780
8677
9560457
0.09
1997
8849900
6240
8856140
0.07
1998
7735850
927357
8663207
10.70
1999
242605
242605
2000
11248930
197970
11446900
1.73
2001
10726190
34870
10761060
0.32
2002
11114950
131890
11246840
1.17
2003
11520590
43880
11564470
0.38
2004
9819617
954500
10774117
8.86
Source: Year Book <strong>of</strong> Agricultural Statistics, 2005
7.4.2 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Hazards on GDP
1998 and 2004 were two years <strong>of</strong> multi-hazards, including severe floods (both riverine and flash). Contribution <strong>of</strong>
crop agriculture to GDP has been reduced by 2.48% and 2.38% respectively. Compared to the percentage <strong>of</strong> loss
<strong>of</strong> AMAN and AUS production with reduction <strong>of</strong> contribution <strong>of</strong> crop agriculture to GDP in 1998 and 2004, it is
clear that the loss <strong>of</strong> production has posed a great impact on National GDP <strong>of</strong> the particular sector.
Table 7.13: Change in Contribution to GDP due to CC related hazards
GDP <strong>of</strong> three consecutive year (Million Taka)
Hazard pr<strong>of</strong>ile
Previous yr. Next yr.
Crop Agriculture
Same yr. Average Production Decrease
PY & N Y Decrease in %
Cyclone- Nov, 1970 - - -
Cyclone-Nov. 1971 (2) - -
Cyclone-Dec; Tornado-
April, 1973
197661 22212 22352 109936.5 87584.5 79.67
Cyclone-Aug., Nov.;
Riverine flood 1974
70
Aus
22352 25477 22212 23914.5 1702.5 7.12
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Hazard pr<strong>of</strong>ile
Cyclone-May; Drought
1975
Cyclone-May; Tornado-
Apr, 1977
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
GDP <strong>of</strong> three consecutive year (Million Taka)
Crop Agriculture
Previous yr. Next yr. Same yr. Average Production
PY & N Y Decrease
22212 24457 25477 23334.5 -2142.5
Decrease
in %
-9.18
24457 26941 27381 25699 -1682 -6.55
Drought- 1978-79 27381 26841 26941 27111 170 0.63
Cyclone- Dec.; Drought
1981
28481 28794 27597 28637.5 1040.5 3.63
Drought- 1982 27597 29120 28794 28358.5 -435.5 -1.54
Cyclone- Oct & Nov 1983 28794 29155 29120 28974.5 -145.5 -0.50
Cyclone- May 1985 29155 139596 139599 84375.5 -55223.5 -65.45
Cyclone- 1986 139599 137119 139596 138359 -1237 -0.89
Riverine flood-1987 139596 134509 137119 137052.5 -66.5 -0.05
Cyclone- Nov.; Riverine
flood 1988
Tornado & Nor’wester-Apr;
Riverine flood; flash flood,
2004
Source: BBS, Wikipedia, CDMP, SMRC.
137119 150828 134509 143973.5 9464.5 6.57
Tornado- April; Drought; 134509 152575 150828 143542 -7286 -5.08
Riverine flood 1989
Cyclone- Apr, May, 1991 152575 156392 154640 154483.5 -156.5 -0.10
Cyclone- May,Nov 1992 154640 157203 156392 155921.5 -470.5 -0.30
Tornado-Jan & May;
Riverine flood; River
erosion-June, 1993
Cyclone- Apr.; Drought
1994
Cyclone-Nov. 1995 (2);
Tornado-Sep. 1995
156392 148068 157203 152230 -4973 -3.27
157203 152168 148068 154685.5 6617.5 4.28
148068 255376 152168 201722 49554 24.57
Tornado- May, 1996 152168 258098 255376 205133 -50243 -24.49
Cyclone- May, Sept.,
Tornado- Oct. 1997
255376 266136 258098 260756 2658 1.02
Cyclone-May, Nov.,
Tornado-July; Riverine
Flood 1998
258098 287688 266136 272893 6757 2.48
Tornado- March1999 266136 305481 287688 285808.5 -1879.5 -0.66
Tornado-Sep.; Riverine
flood; Flash flood 2000
287688 298187 305481 292937.5 -12543.5 -4.28
Tornado-May,; Nor’wester-
Apr , 2003
306765 320339 319875 313552 -6323 -2.02
319875 336439 320339 328157 7818 2.38
71

7.4.3 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Flood on Different Types <strong>of</strong> Livelihoods
Exposure <strong>of</strong> households to flood varies by livelihood groups, and agriculture and agricultural labour dependent
families are most affected due to their higher engagement in this sector. In Rajshahi division, 63% <strong>of</strong> households
involved in agriculture and agricultural labour are exposed to flood. <strong>The</strong>refore, household dependent on
agriculture is the most vulnerable livelihood group in this division. Similarly in Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet division,
54%, 51% and 49% <strong>of</strong> households are exposed to flood respectively which is significantly higher in number than
those <strong>of</strong> Dhaka and Chittagong divisions.
7.4.3.1 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Khulna Division 7.4.3.2 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Chittagong Division
Transport
4%
Business
16%
Service
6%
Transport
3%
Business
12%
Industry
1%
Handloom
2%
Non-agri labor
4%
72
Service
9%
Industry
1%
Handloom
1%
Non-agri labor
4%
Other 9%
Other
8%
Agri Labor
26%
Agri Labor
23%
Agri/For/Live
31%
Fishery
2%
Agri/For/Live
37%
Fishery
1%
Service
15%
Transport
4%
Service
14%
Transport
4%
Other
18%
Business
16%
Business
16%
Other
14%
Industry
1%
Agri/For/Live
23%
Fishery
2%
Agri Labor
18%
Non-agri labor
3%
Handloom
0%
Industry
1%
7.4.3.3 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Rajshahi Division 7.4.3.4 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Dhaka Division
Agri/For/Live
30%
Fishery
1%
Agri Labor
16%
Non-agri labor
3%
Handloom
1%
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

7.4.3.5 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Sylhet Division 7.4.3.6 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Barisal Division
Service
6%
Transport
2%
Business
12%
Industry
1%
Handloom
0%
Other
19%
Non-agri labor
8%
Agri/For/Live
27%
Fishery
3%
Agri Labor
22%
7.4.3.7 % <strong>of</strong> HH Exposed to Flood in Bangladesh
Service
10%
Transport
4%
Business
14%
Industry
1%
Other
13%
Handloom
1%
Non-agri labor 4%
7.4.4 Impacts <strong>of</strong> Cyclone on Different Types <strong>of</strong> Livelihood
<strong>The</strong>re are 19 districts in the coastal belt <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh and table 03 shows the most vulnerable ones depending
on frequency <strong>of</strong> being affected by cyclone. <strong>The</strong> coastal districts are eventually vulnerable to cyclone due to
gevographical location but among those 19 coastal districts Patuakhali, Barisal, Cox’s Bazar, Khulna, Bhola,
Noakhali, Chittagong and Barguna are the most vulnerable districts depending on percentage <strong>of</strong> household
being affected by cyclones in the past 37 years.
It is a matter <strong>of</strong> great regret that almost all the districts <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh have had bad experience <strong>of</strong> suffering from
flood except for the hilly region <strong>of</strong> the country. <strong>The</strong>refore, to assess the actual impact <strong>of</strong> flood, a district wise
vulnerability and damage assessment is required. In this case, the percentage <strong>of</strong> household involved in agriculture
in each flood affected district has been calculated and their vulnerability has been assessed through multiplying
the percentage with frequency <strong>of</strong> flood. Some details have been presented in the next section <strong>of</strong> the report.
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Service
9%
Transport
2%
Business
15%
Industry
1%
Handloom
0%
Non-agri labor
5%
Table 7.14: Exposure <strong>of</strong> Household Involved in Agriculture to Cyclone
Cyclone 1970-2007
District Times Total HH HH involved in
Agri.
Other
12%
Agri/For/Live
31%
Fishery
2%
Agri Labor
20%
HH affected
in %
Agri Labor
21%
Dhaka 1
1666181 70827 4.25 4.25
Agri/For/Live
30%
Fishery
5%
Vulnerability %
73

Cyclone 1970-2007
District Times Total HH HH involved in
Agri.
7.4.5 Causes and Impacts Relationship
It is evident from the above sections that adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> related issues on different sectors and
region will vary and at the same time <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic growth will also vary. It is found that
adverse <strong>impacts</strong> in the coastal area are severe compared to other regions and <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic
growth are severe as well. Flood affects different sectors at different scale and ultimate <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and
economic growth will be moderate. <strong>The</strong> following diagrams show level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> related issues and
their subsequent <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic grow.
74
HH affected
in %
Sylhet 1
412708 70326 17.04 17.04
Bagerhat 1
319004 86438 27.10 27.10
Kushtia 1
376927 105568 28.01 28.01
Jessore
1
519400 164039 31.58 31.58
Faridpur 1
345578 121069 35.03 35.03
Barguna 3
176648 67810 38.39 115.16
Chittagong 12
1180682 122180 10.35 124.18
Noakhali 8
451580 79944 17.70 141.63
Vulnerability %
Bhola 5
325073 93812 28.86 144.29
Khulna 8
486611 89928 18.48 147.84
Cox's Bazar 10
290131 57465 19.81 198.07
Barisal 8
463319 114938 24.81 198.46
Patuakhali 9
282570 97221 34.41 309.65
Source: SMRC, 2003, Wikipedia, DAE and BBS, 2007
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Figure 7.1 Existing Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth in
Relation to <strong>impacts</strong> on Sectors-Flood Prone Areas
Level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
Very severe
Severe
Moderate
Low
Very low
Flood Prone Areas
Climate Change
Vulnerability
(Riverine Flood,Flsah
Flood, River
Band Erision
Coastal Area
Climate Change
vulnerabilities (Cyclone,
SLR, Salinity)
Level <strong>of</strong><strong>impacts</strong>
Very severe
Severe
Moderate
Low
Very low
Crop Agriculture
Fisheries
Forestry
Livestock
Industry &Infrastructure
Water and Sanitation
Health
Education
Sectors
Figure 7.2 Existing Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and
Economic growth in Relation to <strong>impacts</strong> on Sectors-Coastal Area
Crop Agriculture
Fisheries
Forestry
Livestock
Industry and Infrastructure
Water and Sanitation
Health
Education
Sectors
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Poverty
Economic
Growth
Poverty
Economic Growth
75

Figure 7.3 Existing Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth in Relation to <strong>impacts</strong> on
Sectors- Drought Prone Areas
Climate Change
vulnerabilities (Drought,
Temperature Variation
Erratic Rainfall)
76
Drought Prone Areas
Crop Agriculture
Fisheries
Forestry
Livestock
Industry and Infrastructure
Water and Sanitation
Health
Education
Sectors
Level <strong>of</strong><strong>impacts</strong>
Very severe
Severe
Moderate
Low
Very low
No impact
Poverty
Economic Growth
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Existing Coping
Strategies/Practices
77

8. <strong>The</strong>re are a number <strong>of</strong> strategies and practices which have evolved over time to deal with the adverse effects
<strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> and non-climatic stresses. Most <strong>of</strong> them have evolved as a reactive response to problems. However,
many <strong>of</strong> them have potential to address future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and associated problems. <strong>The</strong> following section
summarizes the existing coping strategies and practices by different sectors derived from stakeholder
consultations and expert interviews.
8.1 Crop Agriculture
BARI & BINA have undertaken research strategies on development <strong>of</strong> risk tolerant variety (drought and salttolerant
& short duration pulses and oil seed crop varieties, including drought tolerant wheat)
BRRI is strengthening their research strategy to adopt rice cultivation with changing climatic situation:
- Cultivation <strong>of</strong> BR 42, 43 & BINA Dhan 7 as drought tolerant crops
- Local variety is cultivated in low-lying coastal areas
Research is going on to develop new varieties for coastal region through cross breeding between salt
tolerant and submerged varieties and BRRI already released salt-tolerant rice variety (Bridhan 47) for the
coastal region
Farmers use ash in the field to keep the soil warm during winter
Farmers are adopting some innovative practices(viz. zero tillage, priming <strong>of</strong> seeds during sowing, mulching,
relay cropping, dry seeding, rain water harvest, floating bed vegetable cultivation, sorjan system, short
duration varieties etc.) in the drought prone area
Farmers are adopting some innovative practices (viz. zero tillage, sorjan system, floating bed agriculture etc.)
in flood prone and salinity/tidal surge areas
Documentation, motivation, training & dissemination <strong>of</strong> new adoptive technologies by the farmers
Development <strong>of</strong> linkage with GO/NGOs and private sectors
Short duration Boro rice (limited scale)
Raised pit system
Adjustment <strong>of</strong> cropping pattern
8.2 Fisheries
Raising pond embankment
Pond fencing by net
Fish in pond harvested before drought and in commercial farming water is supplied
Awareness and precaution
Enhancement <strong>of</strong> fish production through rehabilitation <strong>of</strong> fish production and establishment <strong>of</strong> fish sanctuary
increased aquaculture production
Aquatic vegetation shelter in ponds
Agitation <strong>of</strong> surface water
Advance fishes’ selling
Re-digging deeply
Preparing water reservoir
Digging canals and re-digging
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
79

Binding boats and nets with trees
Changing species
Introduction <strong>of</strong> salinity tolerant species
8.3 Forestry
Plantation in highlands
Dyke plantation
Introduction <strong>of</strong> drought resistant species
Planting deep rooted species in cyclone prone areas
Development <strong>of</strong> small scale coastal embankment
Afforestation along the coastal belt
Germination programs
A learning that temperature scenarios for future need to be considered for choice <strong>of</strong> species to secure the
investments in plantation sector
8.4 Livestock
Emergency response & post flood rehabilitation program.
Transfer <strong>of</strong> small ruminant and poultry from flood and cyclone affected areas to high land
Shed for poultry/shed management during drought
Emergency recovery, restoration & response with long term restoration
Cold water spraying on the shed during high temperature
Use <strong>of</strong> preventive medicine for disease prevention and curative measures
Sometimes people sell their livestock to avoid sufferings from natural hazards
Advance food preservation
Preparing raised land
Salinity tolerant grass
8.5 Water and Sanitation
80
Construction <strong>of</strong> cyclone shelter, coastal Embankment, and coastal Polder
Development <strong>of</strong> drainage System
Riverbank protection
Construction <strong>of</strong> submergible embankment
River Dragging
Change <strong>of</strong> land use and land use pattern
Innovative agricultural practices (floating vegetable garden, seedbed).
Deep tube-well water supply for irrigation and rainwater harvesting for supplementary irrigation
Abandonment and shifting to higher lands
Saltwater shrimp and fish culture
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

8.6 Industry and Infrastructure
<strong>The</strong>re have been repair and rehabilitation <strong>of</strong> existing infrastructures such as rural houses and internal
roads/bridges during post disaster period.
<strong>The</strong>re has been construction <strong>of</strong> embankments at the individual level by hotels so as to protect their
establishments from intrusion <strong>of</strong> saline water in coastal areas (Hotel Sea Crown spent Tk. 25 lacs but this can not
be long lasting).
Restoration <strong>of</strong> the connectivity/accessibility to utility supplies such as gas, water and electricity by reconstruction
<strong>of</strong> the infrastructures after a disaster.
Small and medium industries are kept closed for a few days due to massive floods or salt water intrusion.
Parts <strong>of</strong> the Tourism industry such as a huge portion <strong>of</strong> the Marine Drive were shifted due to coastal erosion.
8.7 Health
Indigenous Knowledge, Alum to prevent diseases under changing situation
Adjust cooking, Consumption Pattern through remaining half-fed or sometimes unfed
Provide special health services through special medical team,
Hygiene promotion
Use <strong>of</strong> water purification tablet for providing safe water and sanitation facilities
Government emergency preparedness program
Special diseases control program by the government
Maternal and child base program
Promote use <strong>of</strong> rainwater, tube well water and pond water
Nutrition program
Health ARA program
8.8 Education
During summer and rapid onset disaster, educational institutions declare vacation
<strong>The</strong>re is also provision <strong>of</strong> flexible school calendar
In some areas <strong>of</strong> the country where flood and water logging are major problems, people use boat to go to
educational institutions
Shelter home cum school building built
House to be well-built and flood tolerant, so that people do not get displaced during flood
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<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Probable Future
Coping Strategies
83

9. Strategies and actions suggested here to deal with adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> present and future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
and related disasters are based on suggestions derived from different consultation workshops and key experts’
interviews. Key principles considered in formulating strategies and actions were a) reduction <strong>of</strong> exposure <strong>of</strong>
income stream and production systems, b) reduction <strong>of</strong> sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the exposed systems, and c) increase
adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> vulnerable communities. Institutional and capacity building aspects to support
implementation <strong>of</strong> actions have also been considered. It was found that there is similarity <strong>of</strong> suggestions
mentioned here and in the national <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> strategy and action plan.
9.1 Reduction <strong>of</strong> Exposure
“Exposure” is defined as the contact between an agent and a target. Basically it is the state <strong>of</strong> being exposed or
laid open or bare; openness to danger; accessibility to anything that may affect adversely. Different systems are
exposed to different <strong>climate</strong> related extreme events in different ways and magnitude. Hence, the reduction <strong>of</strong>
exposure means the strategies or measures to be undertaken to reduce the exposures <strong>of</strong> the systems which are
the driving force <strong>of</strong> economic growth from <strong>climate</strong> related shocks. It is to be noted that most <strong>of</strong> the measures are
physical types <strong>of</strong> intervention in nature. <strong>The</strong> following table shows the measures to reduce the exposure <strong>of</strong>
different systems.
Table 9.1 Provide list <strong>of</strong> adaptation measures to reduce exposure
Exposed
Systems
Agriculture
Fisheries
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Actions for Implementation
Flood and
Flash flood
Drought
Cyclone and
Storm surge
Sea level rise
Flood and
Flash flood
Construction <strong>of</strong> embankment
incorporating future <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
and adequate sluice gates
Excavationand re-excavation <strong>of</strong>
canals, ponds and ditches,
construction <strong>of</strong>sluice gateson
theopening mouths <strong>of</strong>
thecanalsRainwater harvesting
technology should be strengthened
for all types <strong>of</strong> dry land crops during
drier months
Deep-rooted fruit trees andfruit
crops should be planted in cyclone
prone areas
Coastal embankment should
beconstructed highenough
toprotect saltwater intrusion
Increase water holding capacity <strong>of</strong>
river by dredging/de-siltation
Construction <strong>of</strong> flood free pond
embankment and net fencing,
rehabilitation
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the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Development <strong>of</strong> concept proposal,
approach and pursue with local
government and Water
Development Board
Development <strong>of</strong> concept proposal,
approach and pursue with local
government and Water
Development Board
Local government, nongovernment
organizations and
community can develop
contingency plan for lifting
stagnant water
85

Exposed
Systems
Forestry
86
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Actions for Implementation
Drought
Cyclone and
storm surge
Sea level rise
Salinity
Intrusion
Flood and
Flash flood
Drought
Sea level rise
Salinity
Intrusion
Storage <strong>of</strong> fry/fingerlings in flood
free govt./private hatcheries for
post flood stocking Re-excavation
<strong>of</strong> water bodies regularly Enhance
open water fish production
through rehabilitation <strong>of</strong> fish
habitats and establishment <strong>of</strong> fish
sanctuary
Construction <strong>of</strong> water reservoir for
water supply to aqua culture and
in river system Storage <strong>of</strong> rain
water and river water by damps
Timely warning, awareness
creation and precaution Cyclone
shelter and boat shelter for
fishermen, multi-storied dwelling
houses
Intensified coastal
aquaculturewith appropriate
technology and infrastructure
Water drainage needs to be
improved toreduce flood damage
to trees and plants
Germination and planting
technologies intervention for all
hazards individually
Technology for holding the rain
water
Embankment for protection
<strong>of</strong>saline water
Cheaper treatment plants for
purifying the saline water
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Exposed
Systems
Livestock
Water and
Sanitation
Industry and
Infrastructure
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Actions for Implementation
Flood and
Flash flood
Drought
Erratic
Rainfall
Flood and
Flash flood
Drought
Salinity
Intrusion
Flood and
Flash flood
Construction <strong>of</strong> livestock shelter
Establishment <strong>of</strong> flood
centers,ensure animal food supply,
preventive measures during flood
Development <strong>of</strong> irrigation system
for fodder production, feeds and
fodder preservation for lean
period
Disease prevention and curative
measures
Intensify flood protection
measures and construction <strong>of</strong>
multi-storied buildings with
proper sanitation system
Improvement and expansion <strong>of</strong>
drainage system in both urban
and rural areas
Harve sting <strong>of</strong> rain water
Establishment <strong>of</strong> water treatment
plant
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the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Climate <strong>change</strong> impact assessment is
very essential at the initial stage <strong>of</strong>
planning and implementation <strong>of</strong> any
infrastructural or industrial
development
Establish future infrastructures
through <strong>change</strong> in existing
guidelines and designs with regular
upgrading
Need flood shelters and more
cyclone shelters at right locations
that shouldbe multi-purpose Need
more disaster- resistant infrastructure
Local government, nongovernment
organizations, and
community can develop plan to
establish flood-free shelters for
livestock
87

Exposed
Systems
Homestead
9.2 Reduction <strong>of</strong> Sensitivity
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by <strong>climate</strong> variability or
<strong>change</strong>. <strong>The</strong> effect may be direct (e.g., a <strong>change</strong> in crop yield in response to a <strong>change</strong> in the mean, range or
variability <strong>of</strong> temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency <strong>of</strong> coastal flooding
due to sea-level rise). Measures related to reduction <strong>of</strong> sensitivity are research and innovation, <strong>change</strong>s in
practices, and physical interventions. <strong>The</strong> following table shows the means <strong>of</strong> reduction <strong>of</strong> sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the
exposed systems.
Exposed
Systems
Agriculture
88
Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Actions for Imp lementation
Cyclone and
storm surge
Salinity
Intrusion
Storm,
Cyclone and
Nor’wester
Flood Raise plinth height above flood level
Flood
Table 9.2 Provide list <strong>of</strong> adaptation options to reduce sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the system
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction Actions for Implementation
Flood and
Flash flood
<strong>The</strong> rural housing infrastructure
should be stronger and more with
standing
All kinds <strong>of</strong> necessary supplies
suchas the utilities <strong>of</strong> electricity, gas
and water should be constructed at
safe locations
Relocate industries located in the
coastal areas since they require
fresh water for internal processing
Plantation <strong>of</strong> water and storm
resistant trees at homestead and
road side
Construction <strong>of</strong> multipurpose flood
shelters insuitable places. Specific
suggestion is to build primary
schools at Senbari and Baidyabari.
Flood tolerant crop varietiesto be
introduced (BRRI-42, 43 & BINA shail)
Introduction <strong>of</strong> early/short duration
variety (BRRI-33, & BINA-7)
Develop program for
implementation <strong>of</strong> social and
community forestry program by
local NGOs and local government
Community awareness and
financial support topoor
andvulnerable community
Development <strong>of</strong> concept proposal,
approach and pursue with local
government and ministry <strong>of</strong>
education
Extension program through
engagement <strong>of</strong> DAE, BARI, local
government, NGOs and community
to promote improved variety <strong>of</strong>
crops
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Exposed
Systems
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction Actions for Implementation
Drought
Cyclone and
Storm surge
All BRRI dhan should be grown in
medium high land
Cropping pattern needs tobe
<strong>change</strong>d
Choice <strong>of</strong> crop variety and cropping
pattern
Screening <strong>of</strong> existing varieties in
vulnerable situation considering
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> (for all
hazards)
Submergence variety needs to
bedeveloped for future adaptation
incrop agriculture <strong>of</strong> flood prone
areas
Study on assessment <strong>of</strong> crop
lossshould be undertaken (crop
lossdue to all types <strong>of</strong>climatic
eventsindividually)
Crop adjustment and revised time <strong>of</strong>
sowing/planting should be studied
through on-farm
trials/demonstration
Construction <strong>of</strong> water reservoir and
provide irrigation system
Introduce drought tolerant crop
varieties in drought prone areas
using residual moisture
Extension program <strong>of</strong> BR 33, a short
duration variety (118 days) is known
as drought escaping in drought
prone areas
Introduce short duration crop
varieties and deepwater varieties
Sea level Introduce modern technology for
cultivating new variety <strong>of</strong> drought
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Research on <strong>change</strong>s
inclimaticsystem<strong>of</strong> crop seasons
involving research organizations
from GOs and NGOs
BARI, BINA, BRRI and Research
NGOs
GoB and NGOs
BARI in associationwithNGOs
Developconcept proposal
andengage local government,
NGOs and community toimplement
this action
Organize vulnerable farmer
community tointroduce short
duration and deep water
cropvarieties
Organize vulnerable farmer
community to introduce new
89

Exposed
Systems
Fisheries
Forestry
90
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction Actions for Implementation
rise and salttolerant crops
Salinity
Intrusion
Cold Wave
Flood and
Flash
Drought
Sea level rise
Salinity
Intrusion
Temperature
Variation
Flood and
flash flood
Drought
Salinity
BRRI-47 can to lerate 6-10 ds/m, at a
young stage it can tolerate 14
ds/m.Extension program <strong>of</strong> this
variety needs to be taken in coastal
areas.
Cold tolerant crop varieties need tobe
invented/developed and distributed
among farmers in northern districts
Development and supply <strong>of</strong>
shortcycle fish species for
aquaculture
Adjust aquaculture period
withculture cycle from October-June
Introduce flood plain aquaculture
Aquaculture and fishing technology
<strong>change</strong> and modification (for all
hazards)
Increase aquaculture
practiceincluding freshwater
shrimpcultivation
Introduce drought resistant fish spp.
for aquaculture
Introduce sea cage culture and sea
ranching
Introduce brackish water finfish
aquaculture
Saline resistant spp. needs to be
introduced in aquaculture
Enclosure around selected large
fresh waterhabitats
Introduce temperature tolerant
species
Watertolerant forest tree sand plants
species needed in flood prone areas
Good irrigation system to be
developed for trees and plants
Drought resistant varieties <strong>of</strong> tree
sand plants should be introduced
and planted
More salt tolerant trees with high
yielding variety need to be
technology by NGOs and local
government
Organize vulnerable farmer
community to introduce new
technology by NGOs and local
government
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the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Exposed
Systems
Livestock
Water and
Sanitation
Industry and
Infrastructure
Existing
Infrastructure
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction Actions for Implementation
Intrusion
Flood and
flash flood
Drought
Sea level rise
Salinity
Intrusion
Temperature
Variation
Heat wave
Flood and
flash flood
Flood and
flash flood
Flood
developed
Aware and involve policy personnel
and mass population
Development <strong>of</strong>feeding system
toreduce production <strong>of</strong>methane and
carbon dioxide
Preservation <strong>of</strong> feeds and
fodder,introduction <strong>of</strong> drought
tolerant fodder species
Protect fodder production area by
embankment
Introduction <strong>of</strong> salt tolerant fodder
species
Temperature tolerance livestock
breeds should be under taken
Development <strong>of</strong> special type <strong>of</strong>
housing for animal and poultry, feeds
and fodder preservation,introduction
<strong>of</strong> heat tolerant fodder species
Early warning dissemination needs to
be improved (for all hazards)
Awareness raising and capacity
building toward adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on industry and
infrastructure (for all hazards)
Assessment<strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>
on industries and infrastructure
Develop a baseline data based on
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> CC and industry and
infrastructure
Develop <strong>climate</strong> resilient cluster
compact villages – a growth center
with all one-stop services such
asschool, community centre,shopping
complex, industrial activity- a <strong>climate</strong>
pro<strong>of</strong> settlement
Increase robustness <strong>of</strong> existing roads
and embankments through increasing
their heighs. Aspecific suggestion is to
raise plinth height <strong>of</strong> Goalgram to
Kaligram bound road.
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Development <strong>of</strong> concept proposal,
approach and pursue with local
government.
91

Exposed
Systems
Housing
Aquaculture Flood
Exposed
Systems
92
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction Actions for Implementation
Storm and
Flood
Agriculture Floodand
Flash flood
Making storm resistant houses and
increase plinth height <strong>of</strong> houses
(flood free houses)
Raising and strengthening <strong>of</strong>
embankments <strong>of</strong>the ponds
9.3 Improvement <strong>of</strong> Adaptive Capacity <strong>of</strong> Community
Organize vulnerable household
sand provide resources to build
storm resistant and flood free
houses
Table 9.3 Provide types <strong>of</strong> intervention to enhance adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the community
Mobilize fishermen community
and aquaculture groups to build a
resilience system
Improvement <strong>of</strong> adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the community is required to primarily build resilience <strong>of</strong> the community
through implementation <strong>of</strong> different types <strong>of</strong> s<strong>of</strong>t measures including training, education and alternative means
<strong>of</strong> livelihood system.
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction Actions for Implementation
Establish cottage industries at local
level: Tailoring, Bamboo and cane, Jute
goods, earth goods, Jewelleries
industries
Promote alternative livelihood options
(poultry and cattle rearing,
aquaculture, plant nursery, etc.)
Encourage farmers to adopt innovative
practices viz. floating bed agriculture
and sorjan system in flood prone areas
Increase aquaculture practice
including freshwater shrimp
cultivation
Establish information centre at local
level on different technologies for
adaptation to deal with flood and
water logging
Community based public property
management (water, aquatic resources
etc.)
Capacity building and awareness
raising programs for farmers should be
undertaken
Development <strong>of</strong> programs by local
NGOs for diversification <strong>of</strong>
livelihood options, depending on
household assets and capabilities
Training for
farmersdemonstrations,
developcommunication
materialsinvolving NGOs
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Exposed
Systems
Drought
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction
Cyclone
and storm
surge
Sea level
rise
Salinity
Intrusion
Erratic
Rainfall
Heat wave
Cold Wave Introduce cold tolerant species
Fisheries Drought
Ensure demand based water supply for
aquaculture
Communities Heat wave Tidal River Management (TRM)
Livestock Cold Wave
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
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Early vegetables can be grown pr<strong>of</strong>itably to
improve the livelihood <strong>of</strong> farming
community
Encourage farmers to adopt innovative
practices viz. zero tillage, priming, dry
farming, mulching, relay cropping etc. in
drought prone area
Tides level started to recede from 15
September. This time high yielding varieties
should grow in coastal areas
Farmers should be encouraged to adopt
some promising traditional/innovative
practices viz. zero tillage, sorjan system,
floating bed agriculture, rainwater harvest,
cultivation <strong>of</strong> aquatic crops/medicinal plants
etc. to improve livelihoods <strong>of</strong> the vulnerable
community
Salt tolerant species like chilli, groundnut,
methi, water melon, cucumber etc. should
be cultivated in saline prone areas
Fish disease control and curative
measures in ponds by using
medicine/insecticides, keep the
surrounding environment by the pond
clean
Create agitation in water or use aeration
Establish veterinary centre at village level
for animal health during flood and water
logging period Management technology
should be developed
Actions for Implementation
Development <strong>of</strong> program by NGOs
in association with Water
Development Board for
community based implementation
Development <strong>of</strong> program by local
NGOs and local engagement <strong>of</strong>
local government, particularly
veterinary doctor for providing
services
93

Exposed
Systems
Health Fogginess
Disaster Risk
Reduction
(DRR)
94
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction
Flood, water
logging
9.4 Institutional Capacity Building
Ensure pure/safe drinking water Establish
health centre and need skilled doctors
Prevention <strong>of</strong> water borne diseases
Installation <strong>of</strong> community based sanitary
latrines at flood free places
Need based effective training for vulnerable
community;
Improve early warning system and
information flow;
Training and awareness raising on disaster
risk reduction;
Increase flood preparedness activities (food
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introduction <strong>of</strong>
removable cooking stoves Building strong
flood shelter
Increase flood preparedness activities (food
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introduction <strong>of</strong>
removable cooking stoves Building strong
flood shelter
Institutions Issue Means
General
Economic
Division
Analytical
and
Human
Actions for Implementation
Development <strong>of</strong> program by local
NGOs for vulnerable communities to
provide healthservices as suggested
Develop and implement institutional
capacity building <strong>of</strong> Local NGOs and
communities. through conducting
providing different trainings
throughout project design and
implementation
implementation
Institutional capacity building is necessary to facilitate and create enabling condition to implement different
types <strong>of</strong> adaptation options mentioned above. <strong>The</strong> following table provides different types <strong>of</strong> actions at
institutional and community levels.
Table 9.4 Provides types <strong>of</strong> intervention to enhance adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the community
Develop longitudinal disaggregated poverty
database along with different streams <strong>of</strong>
income <strong>of</strong> a household and their assets.
Carryout training to enhance institutional
and human capacity to analyze poverty in
the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Actions for
Implementation
Prepare new project
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<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
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Changes Needed in
Planning Process
97

10. In order to address adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and reduction <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gas emission in the
context <strong>of</strong> poverty and national economic growth, a number <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>s have been suggested by different
stakeholders including <strong>change</strong>s in planning process while designing programs and projects by different
ministries and departments in the <strong>climate</strong> sensitive geographical region. <strong>The</strong>se include short, medium and long
term perspective <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, create enabling conditions to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> perspectives,
ensure participation <strong>of</strong> all relevant stakeholders particularly potential vulnerable communities to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
10.1 Incorporation <strong>of</strong> Climate Change
It is revealed from a number <strong>of</strong> national development policy, sectoral policies, strategies and action plan that
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has received significant attention. <strong>The</strong>se national documents have also incorporated several
actions related to mainstreaming and capacity building for adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and reduction <strong>of</strong>
greenhouse gas emission. However, a number <strong>of</strong> sectoral policies have not incorporated <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Considering sense <strong>of</strong> urgency and level <strong>of</strong> present and future <strong>impacts</strong> on poverty and economic growth, issues <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> need to be incorporated immediately. Planning Commission as central policy making institution
should play a central role in initiating policy review toward incorporation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues in the policy,
programme and project development. It should also maintaining synergy among policies, strategies, programme
and actions by different actors. It may also initiate a process for regular review and update <strong>of</strong> policies, strategies
and action plans in the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Learning from the implementation <strong>of</strong> different actions and
measures by different stakeholders may create a basis for review and fine tuning <strong>of</strong> actions.
Considering the time dimension <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, designing <strong>of</strong> any development programs/projects should
incorporate short-term, medium-term and long-term <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> perspectives including extreme events and
risk management. It is also important that poverty and economic growth are connected with multiple sectors
and need a multi-sectoral approach. Considering contribution <strong>of</strong> agriculture as key rural livelihoods, contribution
to economic and sensitivity <strong>of</strong> the sector to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, priority should be given to incorporate adverse
<strong>impacts</strong> arising from <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and extreme events while designing development programs and projects in
the agriculture sector.
10.2 Creating Enabling Condition
Inter linkage among adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth is clear. However, there is
a lack <strong>of</strong> quantitative analysis and assessment based on disagreed and longitudinal database. Quantitative
analysis and assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic growth and poverty by regions and
livelihoods groups would facilitate formulation <strong>of</strong> programme and projects for different sectors. It will also give
clear picture <strong>of</strong> adaptation need for different sectors and livelihood groups as well as mitigation potential. In
order to carryout quantitative analysis and assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty and economic
growth by sectors and regions, a disaggregated and longitudinal database needs to be developed. <strong>The</strong> database
needs to include extent and severity <strong>of</strong> present and future <strong>impacts</strong> on different sectors and livelihood groups. It
will also facilitate medium and long term planning to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into development process.
Creation <strong>of</strong> provision and giving priority to the programs and projects those will address poverty, economic
growth and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issue together. Types <strong>of</strong> projects may include research and <strong>climate</strong> resilient
development giving emphasis on key sectors supporting livelihoods and economic growth; development <strong>of</strong> a
comprehensive and dynamic land use plan and land zoning considering <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues including
assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>; technology development and deployment for agriculture sector including scale up <strong>of</strong>
local level innovative practices. This may also give priority to the <strong>climate</strong> resilient infrastructure development
including building materials. Development <strong>of</strong> tools to assess <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> and technology needs for
all development program and projects to address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is necessary to enhance enabling capacity <strong>of</strong>
practitioner.
10.3 Ensure Participation <strong>of</strong> Vulnerable Communities and Local Need
Impacts <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> are disproportionate and vary by geographical region and by sectors. Capacity to
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address adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> also varies by livelihood groups and their socio-economic condition.
In order to capture context specificity <strong>of</strong> adaption to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and technology needs for different sectors
and livelihood groups, participation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> vulnerable communities in designing and implementation and
program and project is most important. Local level participation will also identify future needs for research and
development to meet local level needs.
10.4 Role <strong>of</strong> General Economic Division
Being a focal point for developing medium and long term plans for Bangladesh and facilitating key decision
making process <strong>of</strong> the Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh, GED needs to play an important role to address <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> and vulnerability in their planning process. Planning Commission is formulating a Vision Paper
for Bangladesh and rightly placed to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in this paper. This paper should include latest
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> assessment and adaptation needs to promote sustainable development <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh.
In addition, to address the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues in policy and decision making activities <strong>of</strong> the General Economic
Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission, it has to improve its capability as well as facilitate other relevant ministries
and departments. <strong>The</strong> following are major areas for immediate attention and action.
Knowledge and Research
Encourage and motivate relevant sectoral ministries and department to enhance existing research and initiate
new research linking <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth;
Develop disaggregated database on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth to facilitate quantitative
analysis and assessment on inter-linkage among <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, poverty and economic growth and
designing different interventions to address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>;
Facilitate development <strong>of</strong> a comprehensive landuse and land zoning plan for proper utilization <strong>of</strong> land resources
to support poverty reduction and economic growth in a sustainable manner. <strong>The</strong> land zoning also should
incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as it will bring <strong>change</strong>s characteristics <strong>of</strong> physical environment; and
Support facilities for information gathering through scientific research, and made provision to support activities
addressing poverty, economic growth and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> together.
Capacity Building
General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission should setup a Climate Change Unit to enhance GED’s
knowledge base. It should also build awareness and capacity <strong>of</strong> staff <strong>of</strong> planning cell <strong>of</strong> every ministry and
department.
<strong>The</strong> proposed <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> unit must coordinate with all relevant government agencies at all levels, including
both vertical and horizontal while designing and implementing project;
GED should made provision for financial support to enhance technical capacity <strong>of</strong> other ministries and
departments to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in development and implementation <strong>of</strong> project.
Policy Issues
Initiating policy review toward incorporation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues in the policy, programme and project
development;
General Economic Division (GED) will give priority to the programme and project addressing poverty, economic
growth and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> together; GED should facilitate/expedite extension <strong>of</strong> available research knowledge
and good practices/technologies addressing <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, poverty and economic growth together;
GED should emphasize agriculture friendly planning process by incorporating CC <strong>impacts</strong>.
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10.5 Immediate Projects for Implementation
10.5.1 Enhance understanding and knowledge on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and development with special focus on
poverty and economic growth.
Objective
<strong>The</strong> primary objectives <strong>of</strong> the project are to enhance understanding and knowledge on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and
development with special focus on poverty and economic growth, and identification <strong>of</strong> possible interventions to
reduce adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and reduction <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gas emission.
Justification
Adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on poverty and economic growth is real now. About 40% people <strong>of</strong> the
country are living below poverty line and a large proportion <strong>of</strong> human population <strong>of</strong> the country is at risk to
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and relevant extremes and shocks. <strong>The</strong> government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has taken initiatives to
address poverty through formulation and implementation <strong>of</strong> “National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty
Reduction” for the period <strong>of</strong> 2009-2011. It has recognized need to address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> which needs enhance
understanding to the extent and severity <strong>of</strong> the problem as well as possible interventions at project level. As a
part <strong>of</strong> medium and long term planning which is one <strong>of</strong> the key roles <strong>of</strong> the General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the
Planning Commission enhanced understanding and linkage along with possible measures are key.
<strong>The</strong> Department <strong>of</strong> Environment (DoE) under the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environment and Forests (MoEF) mainly deals with
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues at national and international levels along with its other mandates. A <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> cell
has established under Comprehensive Disaster Management Programmes (CDMP) to meet gaps in research on
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues and facilitate mainstreaming <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in national and sectoral development.
Moreover, many government and non-government organizations are doing research on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues
and <strong>impacts</strong> at national, regional and levels. <strong>The</strong> Planning Commission (PC) under the Ministry <strong>of</strong> Planning is the
key institution for overall development including poverty reduction <strong>of</strong> the country and therefore should take key
role in mainstreaming <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into development process. In order to play the key role in mainstreaming
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in national and sectoral development, enhance understanding and knowledge on <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> and development including economic growth and poverty is necessary for General Economic Division.
Activities
a) Establish a <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> cell in the General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> the Planning Commission with adequate
trained pr<strong>of</strong>essional;
b) Develop a framework for continued collection and compilation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios, <strong>impacts</strong>
assessments and possible measures both in adaptation and mitigation;
c) Synthesis <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerabilities and possible adaptation measures for different sectors and
by geographical regional and by livelihoods groups;
d) Develop a framework, methodology and tools for integrating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into Development Project
Proposals (DPPs) and conduct regular training for sectoral agencies;
e) Coordinate all research related to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and development
Timeline: Short-term
Responsibility: General Economic Division <strong>of</strong> Planning Commission, Ministry <strong>of</strong> Planning
10.5.2 Quantitative analysis and assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on economic growth and poverty
by regions and livelihood groups
Objective
<strong>The</strong> primary objective <strong>of</strong> the project is to analyse and assess quantitative <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic
growth and poverty by regions and livelihoods groups through development <strong>of</strong> a disaggregated database.
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Justification
Adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> are already visible and different sectors and livelihood groups are being
impacted differently. Agriculture sector especially crop agriculture is highly being affected by extreme weather
events and shocks and level <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> will be more in future due to <strong>change</strong>s characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong>. In
addition, water resources, one <strong>of</strong> the key inputs to agriculture, will be impacted due to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Health
services, education, industries especially small and medium industries, urban and rural infrastructure will also be
affected by adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related extreme events. Ultimately different
livelihood groups depending on these sectors will be impacted and overall economic growth <strong>of</strong> the country will
also face additional stress. It is also recognized that the poorest <strong>of</strong> the poor will be affected hardest. However,
there is lack <strong>of</strong> analysis based on disaggregated database on what extent and how <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on
different sectors are affecting and will affect different livelihood groups. Several stakeholders suggested that
quantification <strong>of</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on economic growth and poverty is important to facilitate medium
and long term planning to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into development process.
Activities
a) Undertake a process to design framework, methodology and tools to collect disaggregated data on a
continuous basis and stored in a retrieval and relational database system;
b) Undertake a process to develop an analytical framework to carryout periodical analysis <strong>of</strong> the situation to
facilitate decision making process;
c) Develop a process to ensure continued collection <strong>of</strong> disaggregated data; and
d) Develop data base maintenance and sharing system among different relevant government and nongovernment
research organizations.
Timeline: Short-term
Responsibility: Ministry <strong>of</strong> Planning and Bangladesh Bureau <strong>of</strong> Statistics.
10.5.3 Capacity Enhancement <strong>of</strong> Planning Cadre on Climate Change Issues
Objective
<strong>The</strong> primary objective <strong>of</strong> the capacity building <strong>of</strong> the planning cadre on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues is integrating
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in designing program and project. It will promote implementation <strong>of</strong> adaptation activities and
building resilience <strong>of</strong> the vulnerable community to cope with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and reduce risk <strong>of</strong> declining
economic growth.
Justification
Adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on different sectors supporting livelihoods and economic growth are
unavoidable. Existing process for formulation <strong>of</strong> a program and project does not address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues
and <strong>impacts</strong>. <strong>The</strong>refore, it is important to enhance capacity <strong>of</strong> the planning cadre to incorporate <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
as programme or project usually born in the planning cell <strong>of</strong> a ministry or a department.
Activities
a) Development <strong>of</strong> capacity building training module on <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>, vulnerability and adaptation;
b) Develop a framework including methodologies and tools to facilitate incorporation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in
designing sector specific program and project; and
c) Carryout training for planning cadre <strong>of</strong> key relevant ministries and departments.
Timeline: Short-term
Responsibility: Ministry <strong>of</strong> Planning
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11. Vulnerability <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is well recognized due to its higher level <strong>of</strong> exposure to both
the gradual <strong>change</strong> phenomenon and extreme events, and due to lack <strong>of</strong> institutional and financial capacity to
deal with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related problems as well. Changes in the climatic system and its associated adverse
<strong>impacts</strong> are already visible. Changes in the duration <strong>of</strong> seasons, i.e. lengthening <strong>of</strong> the summer season and
shortening <strong>of</strong> the winter season, shifting <strong>of</strong> mango flowering season; increase in the frequency <strong>of</strong> hazards;
<strong>change</strong>s in the rainfall pattern etc. are major indicators <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in Bangladesh.
<strong>The</strong> IPCC estimates that by 2050 rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8% and wheat production by
32% (against a base year <strong>of</strong> 1990). If sea level rise is higher than currently expected and coastal polders are not
strengthened and/or new ones built, six to eight million people could be displaced by 2050 and would have to
be resettled. Climate <strong>change</strong> is likely to increase the incidence <strong>of</strong> water-borne and air-borne diseases. Bacteria,
parasites and disease vectors breed faster in warmer and wetter conditions and where there is poor drainage
and sanitation.
<strong>The</strong> relationship between <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> adverse <strong>impacts</strong> and poverty is multi-dimensional and complex. For
better understanding the complex relationship needs longitudinal disaggregated poverty database along with
different streams <strong>of</strong> income <strong>of</strong> a household and their assets. Strengthening <strong>of</strong> institutional and human capacity
to analyse poverty in the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is also needed. <strong>The</strong> relationship between adverse <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> with GDP growth is complex as well.
It has been revealed that during and immediately after a disaster, the government, development partners, nongovernment
organizations and the civil society place significant extra efforts to cope with the situation and,
therefore, by the next growing season there is additional output from the impacted sectors. <strong>The</strong> direct annual
cost to the national economy <strong>of</strong> natural disasters over the last 10 years (damage and loss in production) was
estimated to be between 0.5% and 1% <strong>of</strong> GDP. However, it is to be noted that national expenditure increases to
address a disaster or the cost is diverted from other sectoral activities. In future, increase in frequency and
intensity <strong>of</strong> natural disasters will put extra pressure on the national economy and it is likely that other sectors
may suffer due to diverting <strong>of</strong> resources from one sector to another sector.
Different sectors are coping with <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> related adverse <strong>impacts</strong> but most <strong>of</strong> them are reactive
adaptation measures. However, many <strong>of</strong> the measures have potential to work as future adaptation options but
we need evaluation <strong>of</strong> their robustness under future <strong>change</strong>d conditions. Effective knowledge management and
undertaking <strong>of</strong> new research will enhance capacity <strong>of</strong> different sectoral agencies to undertake adaptation to
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in an efficient manner.
<strong>The</strong> Ministry <strong>of</strong> Environment and Forests, Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh is the focal point for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> at
national and international level. <strong>The</strong> Government <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh has formulated the Bangladesh Climate Change
Strategy and Action Plan 2008 as a living document to address <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues. In 2005, the Government
also formulated the National Adaptation Programme <strong>of</strong> Action (NAPA) where the immediate and urgent needs <strong>of</strong>
adaptation have been identified.
<strong>The</strong> Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 is built on six pillars <strong>of</strong> which five are related to
impact management and one is related to mitigation through low carbon development. <strong>The</strong>se pillars are a) Food
security, social protection and health, b) Comprehensive Disaster Management, c) Infrastructure, d) Research and
knowledge management, e) Mitigation and low carbon development and f ) Capacity building and institutional
strengthening. It has suggested that the Climate Change Action Plan will be implemented under the overall
guidance <strong>of</strong> the National Environment Committee. It will be coordinated by the concerned Ministry <strong>of</strong>
Environment and Forests. Programs funded under the Plan will be implemented by Ministries or their agencies,
with the involvement, as appropriate, <strong>of</strong> civil society and the private sector.
<strong>The</strong> strategy document revealed that the Bangladesh Government is committed to integrate and mainstream
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into all aspects <strong>of</strong> national, sectoral and spatial development in the country. This will require: (a)
incorporating <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> into policies, plans, programs and projects; (b) establishment and building the
capacity <strong>of</strong> ministries and agencies so that they are able to do this (e.g., building on the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> cells in
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each ministry); focusing, to start with, on those specific sectors, where <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> will be a key issue (e.g.,
water, agriculture, food, disaster management, health, forests, energy and power, transport and communication,
women affairs and Chittagong Hill Tracts)
Two <strong>change</strong>s are required in the process by which ministries and agencies prepare and submit proposals to the
Planning Commission: the Planning Commission, in consultation with the National Steering Committee on
Climate Change and sectoral ministries, should introduce a set <strong>of</strong> designs and planning parameters for projects
for selected target years (e.g. 2030, 2050 and 2100), which should take into account the likely <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
<strong>impacts</strong>; the pro-formas, which the Planning Commission requires for project proposals (TPP, PP etc.), designed to
ensure that all elements for taking decisions for <strong>climate</strong> resilience or <strong>climate</strong> sensitivity are included and
correctly reflected.
Establishing and building the capacity <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> cells in ministries and agencies to incorporate <strong>climate</strong>
<strong>change</strong> considerations in all planning design and implementation processes as a long-term measure is vital.
Supporting implementation <strong>of</strong> the national strategy and action plan, particularly in the area <strong>of</strong> food security,
social protection and human health; infrastructure development; knowledge management and research; and,
capacity building and institutional strengthening can be key areas for the General Economic Division in the
context <strong>of</strong> poverty and economic growth as a long term target.
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Key Terminologies

12.1 Climate
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average weather," or more rigorously, as the statistical
description in terms <strong>of</strong> the mean and variability <strong>of</strong> relevant quantities over a period <strong>of</strong> time ranging from months
to thousands <strong>of</strong> years. <strong>The</strong> classical period is 3 decades, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO). <strong>The</strong>se quantities are most <strong>of</strong>ten surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in
a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, <strong>of</strong> the <strong>climate</strong> system.
12.2 Climate Change
Climate <strong>change</strong> refers to any <strong>change</strong> in <strong>climate</strong> over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result <strong>of</strong>
human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), which defines "<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>" as: "a <strong>change</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition <strong>of</strong> the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural <strong>climate</strong>
variability observed over comparable time periods." See also <strong>climate</strong> variability.
12.3 Climate System
<strong>The</strong> <strong>climate</strong> system is the highly complex system consisting <strong>of</strong> five major components: the atmosphere, the
hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface, and the biosphere, and the interactions between them. <strong>The</strong>
<strong>climate</strong> system evolves in time under the influence <strong>of</strong> its own internal dynamics and because <strong>of</strong> external forcings
such as volcanic eruptions, solar variations and human-induced forcings such as the changing composition <strong>of</strong> the
atmosphere and land use.
12.4 Climate Variability
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the
occurrence <strong>of</strong> extremes, etc.) <strong>of</strong> the <strong>climate</strong> on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that <strong>of</strong> individual weather
events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the <strong>climate</strong> system (internal variability), or to
variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
12.5 Extreme Weather Event
An event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions <strong>of</strong> "rare" vary, but
an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition,
the characteristics <strong>of</strong> what is called "extreme weather" may vary from place to place. An "extreme <strong>climate</strong> event"
is an average <strong>of</strong> a number <strong>of</strong> weather events over a certain period <strong>of</strong> time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g.,
rainfall over a season).
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Annex A
List <strong>of</strong> Key Experts <strong>of</strong> different sectors that have been interviewed
Sl
No.
Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information
1 Dr. Abu Wali Raghib Hassan
Sub-component Manager
(National Project Director)
Livelihood Adaptation to
ClimateChange (LACC-II) Project
Room No. 403, 3 rd floor, 1 st Building, Department
<strong>of</strong> Agriculture Extension (DAE) Khamarbari,
Farmgate, Dhaka-1215
Cell: 01552312600,
Email: hassan58_dae@yahoo.com
2 Dr. A.K.M.Farhad
Project Director
GUTI UREA PROGRAM
Field Service Wing
3
Dr. Md. Abdus Salam
Chief Scientific
Officer and Head Agronomy
DivisionBangladesh Institute <strong>of</strong>
Nuclear Agriculture (BINA)
4 Pr<strong>of</strong>. Dr. ShahMohammad Ullah
Chairman
5
6
7
112
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor Dr. M. Ali Akbar
Department <strong>of</strong> Animal Husbandry
Dr. M. Shahabuddin Khan
Chief Scientific Officer & Head
Dr. M A Salam
Director (Research)
Crop Agriculture
Room No. 401, 3 rd floor, 2nd Building Department
<strong>of</strong> Agriculture Extension (DAE)Khamarbari,
Farmgate, Dhaka-1215
P.O. Box-4, Mymensingh-2200
Tel: +88-091-54401-2, Ext. 307 (Off)
+88-091-52960
Cell: 01711938290
Fax: +88-091-54091
Email: drmasalam@yahoo.com
Department <strong>of</strong> Soil, Water and Environment
University <strong>of</strong> Dhaka, Dhaka.
Tel: 9661920-59, Ext. 6132 (Off), 9664988(Res)
Cell: 01190337632
Fax: (880-2) 8615583
Email: smullah_du@yahoo.com
Bangladesh Agricultural University,Mymensingh-
2200
Tel: 091-52030 (Direct). 55695-7/2600 (Office)
091-54055 (Res.)
Fax: 091-55810
Cell: 01715-004752
Email: maakbar52@yahoo.com
SoilScience Division
BARI, Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701
Tel: 880-2-9256403 (Off) 880-2-8060903,
8034740 (Res)
Email: ssdbari@dhaka.net,
cso.soil@bari.gov.bd
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI),
Gazipur 1701, Dhaka.
Tel: 9252429 (Off)
Mobile: 01711595577
Fax: 88-02-9261110
Email: salam_brri@yahoo.com
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Sl
No.
Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information
8 Pr<strong>of</strong>.Dr. M. A.Sattar
Bangladesh Agricultural University,
Department <strong>of</strong>
Mymensingh -2202
Environmental Science
Tel: (091)55695-7/2608 (Off), (091)
53927 (Res.)
Mobile: 01711855366
Fax: +88-091-55810
Email: sattarenvs@yahoo.com
9 Dr. Rafiqul Islam
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor
10 Dr. Jahiruddin
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor
11 Dr. Badirul Islam
Chief Scientific Officer (OFRD)
12 Dr. M. Sirajul Islam
Chief Scientific Officer
(Physiology)
13 Dr. M. K. Basher
Chief Scientific Officer (Breeding)
14 Mr. Jalal uddin Md. Shoel
Chief Scientific Officer (CSO)
15 Mr. Kabel Hossain Dewan
Chief Scientific Officer (CSO)
16 Shaikh Siraj
Director and Founding Member
Crop Agriculture
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Department <strong>of</strong> Soil Science
Bangladesh Agricultural University
Mymensingh-2202
Tel: 091-55695-7 Ext. 2420 (Off)
Fax: 091-55810
Email: m_jahiruddin@yahoo.com
Department <strong>of</strong> Soil Science
Bangladesh Agricultural University
Mymensingh-2202 Tel: 091-55695-7
Ext. 2420 (Off) Fax: 091-55810
Email: m_jahiruddin@yahoo.com
BangladeshAgriculture Research Institute
(BARI), Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701, Dhaka.
Cell: 01199100909
Email: <strong>of</strong>rdjoy@yahoo.com
BangladeshRice Research Institute (BRRI),
Gazipur -1701,Dhaka.
Tel: 9257517 (<strong>of</strong>f)
Email: msislam52@yahoo.com
BangladeshRice Research Institute (BRRI),
Gazipur -1701,Dhaka.
Cell: 01711283982
Email: mkbasher.brri@yahoo.com
Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI),
Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215
Cell: 01716048256
Fax: 9110844
Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI),
Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215
Tel: 9127674
Cell: 01918610026
Fax: 9110844
Channel I, Dhaka
113

Sl
No.
Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information
17 Dr. Shahjahan Ali Khandaker
Ministry <strong>of</strong> Fisheries & Livestock (MOFL)
Deputy Chief
Bangladesh Secretariat, Dhaka
Tel: 7169564
Cell: 01712200932
18 Mr. Joarder Shibendra Nath
Deputy Chief
Department <strong>of</strong> Fisheries (DOF)
Matshaya Bhaban,Ramna, Dhaka
Tel:- 9567216
19 Dr. M.A. Mazid
Director General
20 Dr. M.A. Wahab
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor
Limnology &Aquaculture
21 Dr. Md. Giasuddin Khan
Senior Fisheries Scientist
22 Dr. Md. Ebadul Haque
Principal Scientific Officer
(Training)
23 Mr. AKM Shamsuddin
Chief Conservator <strong>of</strong> Forest (CCF)
24 Mr. Abul kalam
Deputy Conservator <strong>of</strong> Forests
25 Mr. Md. Nurul Islam
Chief Engineer
114
Fisheries and Livestock
Forest
BangladeshFisheries Research Institute
Mymensingh
Cell: 01711-544919
Department <strong>of</strong> Fisheries Management
Faculty <strong>of</strong> Fisheries
Bangladesh Agriculture University (BAU)
Mymensingh
Cell : 01715099156
World Fish Center
House # 22B, Road # 7, Block- F,Banani, Dhaka.
Tel.: 8813250,8814624
Cell: 01711392292
E-mail: g.khan@cgiar.org
Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute
(BLRI)
Savar, Dhaka
Tel: 7791685 (<strong>of</strong>f.)
Cell: 01712142110
Ban Bhaban, Agargaon,Sher-e-Bangla
Nagar, Dhaka-1207
Tel:- 8118671
Planning Wing
Ban Bhaban, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar,
Dhaka-1207
Department <strong>of</strong> Local Government and
Engineering, LGED Bhaban (Level 5),
Agargaon,Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka-1207.
Tel: 8114804,8116817
Fax: 8113144,8116390
Cell: 01711566370
E-mail: nislam48@yahoo.com,
nislam51@hotmail.com
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Sl
No.
Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information
26 Mr. Md Reazuddin
Department <strong>of</strong> Environment (DoE)
Director (Technical - 1)
Paribesh Bhaban (2ndfloor)
E-16, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207
Tel.: 9115120 (Off.)
Fax: 9118682
Cell: 01678120996
E-mail: reaz@doe-bd.org
27 Mr. Md. Mujibur Rahman
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor
28 Mr. M. Aminul Islam
Assistant Country Director (ACD)
29 Mr. Abu Most<strong>of</strong>a Kamal Uddin
Programme Manager (Climate
Change Cell)
30 Mr. A. K.M. Khorshed Alam
Joint Chief
31 Ms. Hosne Ara Begum
Joint Chief (Infrastructure
Division)
32 Ms. Saleha Khatun
Joint Chief (Industry Division)
Industry and Infrastructure
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh
Dept. <strong>of</strong> Civil Engineering
3rd Floor, Civil Engineering Building
BUET, Dhaka-1000.
Fax: 9663695
Cell: 01713002904
Environment & Sustainable, Development,
UNDP Bangladesh
18thFloor, IDB Bhaban, Agargaon,
Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.
G.P.O Box 224,Dhaka-1000.
Tel: 8118600, Ext.-2464
Fax: 8113196
Cell: 01818260741
Department <strong>of</strong> Environment (DoE)
Paribesh Bhaban (4th Floor)
Room # 514, E-16, Agargaon
Sher-e-Bangla Nagar,Dhaka-1207.
Email: kamal.uddin@cdmp.org.bd
GED, Planning Commission
Room-24, Block-14
Planning Commission Agargaon,
Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.
Cell: 01199104412
E-mail: akmkal@yahoo.com
Room-18, Block-4
Planning Commission
Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.
Tel: 8114706
Fax: 9127230
Room- 18, Block-3
Planning Commission
Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar,Dhaka.
Tel: 8114709
E-mail: salehakhatun45@yahoo.com
115

Sl.
No.
Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information
33 Mr. Abdul Quyum
Water Development Board (BWDB)
Additional Chief Engineer
Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000
Mob : 01552-402328
34 Mr. Giasuddin Ahmed
Chowdhury
Executive Director, CEGIS
35 Dr. Ainun Nishat
Country Representative
36 Pr<strong>of</strong>essor Sk. Akhtar Ahmed
Head <strong>of</strong> the Department
37 Mr.Sirajul Islam
Environmental, Microbiologist
38 Mr. Md. Ihtishamul Huq
Superintendent Engineer
Ground Water Circle
39 Mr. Md. Azizul Haq
Director in Charge
40 Pr<strong>of</strong>. Nazrul Islam
Chairman
41 Pr<strong>of</strong> Jihadul Karim
Member
42 Dr. Al-Amin
Pr<strong>of</strong>essor & Director
43 Dr. Saleh Uddin Ahmed
Director
116
Water and Sanitation
Health
Education
Academicians
House No.6, Road No. 23/C
Gulshan-1, Dhaka
Tel.: 8821570-2
IUCN-Bangladesh
House 11, Road 138, Gulshan 1
Dhaka 1212
Department <strong>of</strong> Occupational and Environmental
Health, NIPSOM
Mohakhali, Dhaka
Tel.: 8821236, 9898798
E-Mail: nipsom@dhaka.net
Dept. <strong>of</strong> Environmental Microbiology ICDDR,B,
Mohakhali, Dhaka
Tel.: 8811751-60 (2407)
E-mail : sislam@icddrb.org
DPHE, DPHE Bhavan,
14 Shaheed Captain Mansur Ali Sarani, Kakrail,
Dhaka-1000
Tel.: 9343358
E-mail : ce@dphe.gov.bd
CAMPE
5/14, Humayun Road
Mohammadpur, Dhaka-1207
Tel.: 9130427, 8115769, 8155031-2
E-mail : azia@campebd.org
University Grant Commission (UGC) Sher-e-
Bangal Nagar, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207
Tel.: 8112629, 8124133
E-mail: chairman@yahoo.com
University Grant Commission (UGC)
Sher-e-Bangal Nagar
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207
Cell: 017113031335
Institute <strong>of</strong> Forestry and Environmental Sciences
Chittagong University,
Chittagong 4331, Bangladesh
Phone: 0088 031 714914 (<strong>of</strong>fice)
Cell : 0088 01819820184 (personal)
E-mail: pr<strong>of</strong>.alamin@yahoo.com
Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute
Bangladesh Agricultural University Campus
Mymensingh, Bangladesh
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh

Exposed
Systems
Health Fogginess
Disaster Risk
Reduction
(DRR)
94
Exposed to Means <strong>of</strong> Reduction
Flood, water
logging
9.4 Institutional Capacity Building
Ensure pure/safe drinking water Establish
health centre and need skilled doctors
Prevention <strong>of</strong> water borne diseases
Installation <strong>of</strong> community based sanitary
latrines at flood free places
Need based effective training for vulnerable
community;
Improve early warning system and
information flow;
Training and awareness raising on disaster
risk reduction;
Increase flood preparedness activities (food
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introduction <strong>of</strong>
removable cooking stoves Building strong
flood shelter
Increase flood preparedness activities (food
storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introduction <strong>of</strong>
removable cooking stoves Building strong
flood shelter
Institutions Issue Means
General
Economic
Division
Analytical
and
Human
Actions for Implementation
Development <strong>of</strong> program by local
NGOs for vulnerable communities to
provide healthservices as suggested
Develop and implement institutional
capacity building <strong>of</strong> Local NGOs and
communities. through conducting
providing different trainings
throughout project design and
implementation
implementation
Institutional capacity building is necessary to facilitate and create enabling condition to implement different
types <strong>of</strong> adaptation options mentioned above. <strong>The</strong> following table provides different types <strong>of</strong> actions at
institutional and community levels.
Table 9.4 Provides types <strong>of</strong> intervention to enhance adaptive capacity <strong>of</strong> the community
Develop longitudinal disaggregated poverty
database along with different streams <strong>of</strong>
income <strong>of</strong> a household and their assets.
Carryout training to enhance institutional
and human capacity to analyze poverty in
the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Actions for
Implementation
Prepare new project
<strong>The</strong> Probable Impacts <strong>of</strong> Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and
the Options <strong>of</strong> Coping with adverse Effect <strong>of</strong> Climate Change in Bangladesh