Commercial Mortgage Delinquency, Foreclosure and Reinstatement

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A Multiple Factor Asset-Pricing Model for Commercial MortgagesCynthia HolmesUniversity of British Columbia, Faculty of Commercecynthia_holmes@hotmail.comThis draft: July 23, 2002Abstract:This paper contributes to the commercial mortgage literature and the multiple factorasset-pricing literature by creating a model for commercial mortgage returns. The result of aninitial analysis using the five Fama and French (1993) factors is that the sensitivities ofcommercial mortgage returns and corporate bond returns to each factor are statisticallyindistinguishable. However, further analysis was performed using factors associated with realestate returns, and the result is that unlike stocks and corporate bonds, commercial mortgagereturns are sensitive to the factor that measures growth in personal consumption.Thank you to my committee members, Tsur Somerville, Stan Hamilton and Adlai Fisher for theiradvice and comments. In addition, thanks to Kenneth French for making his portfolio returns andfactors available to all researchers on his data library website and to Michael Giliberto forsupplying the values of the Giliberto-Levy Commercial Mortgage Return Index. Any errors oromissions are mine.
1 IntroductionCommercial mortgages are a large asset class. The size of the U.S. market was about$1.2 trillion 1 at the end of 2000, about a quarter of the size of the market for corporate bonds. Butdespite the large size of the market, the size of the body of academic literature about commercialmortgages is small. This is most likely due to the difficulty in obtaining access to data 2 , sincemost commercial mortgages are held by the originating lender and are not traded on anysecondary market. However, as the secondary market grows through the issuance of commercialmortgage backed securities, so does the need for research that addresses questions about this assetclass 3 .Commercial mortgages have term structure risk, like corporate bonds. But while thesource of cash flow to service corporate bonds is from the general operation of the firm, thesource of cash flow for commercial mortgages is the rental income of the specific propertysecured by the mortgage. Therefore, the structure of default risk is different. This is an importantfactor that distinguishes the two asset classes. In addition, commercial mortgages are less liquidand less divisible than corporate bonds, and have a different payment structure. Commercialmortgages typically have amortizing payments of interest and principal, while corporate bondstypically have only interest coupons. In this paper, I examine how the differences in the assetclasses are manifested in the returns using multiple factor asset pricing models.The development and testing of asset pricing models is one of the central research areasin finance dating back to the 1960s with the work of Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965) on thecapital asset pricing model. But most of research attention is turned to stock market returns, withlittle attention to bonds and real estate, and no work at all on commercial mortgages.1 Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, September 18, 2001.2 In this paper, I overcome this problem by using an index created by Giliberto-Levy Inc. Further detailsare in the data description in section 4.3 The amount of CMBS issued grew from less than $10 billion in 1990 to over $90 billion in 2001.(Source: John B. Levy, The Ground Floor, Barron’s, January 1991 and January 2001).1
Page 1 and 2: Commercial Mortgage Delinquency, Fo
Page 3 and 4: Perhaps the most compelling reason
Page 5 and 6: contemporaneous loan-to-value ratio
Page 7 and 8: national lenders, of which the data
Page 9 and 10: Whenever a property appraisal is pe
Page 11 and 12: loans and the highest value for for
Page 13 and 14: atio, debt coverage ratio and guara
Page 15 and 16: ReferencesAmbrose, Brent W., Buttim
Page 17 and 18: Titman, Sheridan D.; Torous, Walter
Page 19 and 20: Table 3Independent Variable: Ever D
Page 21: Table 4b - Loan OutcomeNever Delinq
Page 25 and 26: Based on the results from the first
Page 27 and 28: An early paper about the empirical
Page 29 and 30: 4 DataIn order to test the multiple
Page 31 and 32: To derive the excess returns, the r
Page 33 and 34: examining bond returns. Second, sin
Page 35 and 36: significant for 3 series. The growt
Page 37 and 38: ReferencesBlack, Fischer; Jenson, M
Page 39 and 40: Ibbotson, R. G.; Siegel, L. B.; Rea
Page 41 and 42: Appendix 1 - Unsmoothing Real Estat
Page 43 and 44: Figure 1Commercial Mortgage Returns
Page 45 and 46: Table 1 - List of FactorsVariable D
Page 47 and 48: Table 3 - CorrelationsReturn Series
Page 49 and 50: Table 5 - Test for Equality of Coef
Page 51 and 52: Table 6b - Estimation results for S
Page 53 and 54: Table 7 - Estimation results for Bo

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