11.07.2015 Views

Meet the consumer today's business needs to targe

Meet the consumer today's business needs to targe

Meet the consumer today's business needs to targe

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS
  • No tags were found...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

Parliamentary BriefEight years ago we could never have imagined what<strong>the</strong> world would be like <strong>to</strong>day. So how can we knowwhat it will be like in 2015?Half-way <strong>to</strong> what?Andy SumnerThinking back one or two years, whowould have predicted <strong>the</strong> currentturmoil in global markets for finance,food and fuel? Thinking back fur<strong>the</strong>r, whowould have imagined <strong>the</strong> spread of <strong>the</strong>Internet, <strong>the</strong> collapse of <strong>the</strong> Soviet block or<strong>the</strong> post-9/11 world?So what are our chances of predicting<strong>the</strong> world in 2015? Not great but we cansay something. The current pace of globalchange is accelerating and creating bothchallenges and opportunities. There are somemajor global and regional transformativeprocesses and emerging issues <strong>the</strong> characterof which is marked above all by increasedinter-dependence between <strong>the</strong> North andSouth and East and West.Commenta<strong>to</strong>rs have noted <strong>the</strong> tendencyof <strong>the</strong>se <strong>to</strong> destabilize existing livelihoods,unravel social fabrics, create conflict andexclusion as well as disrupt internationalmarkets. These processes are also reinforcing<strong>the</strong> diversity in what was once <strong>the</strong>‘Third World’: at one end of <strong>the</strong> spectrum<strong>the</strong>re is a group of accelerated developersin <strong>the</strong> BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India andChina), <strong>the</strong> BRICETS (Eastern Europeand Turkey) and <strong>the</strong> Goldmans Sachs N11(<strong>the</strong> next countries expected <strong>to</strong> experiencefast economic growth). At <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r endof <strong>the</strong> spectrum <strong>the</strong>re are <strong>the</strong> 50-60 countriestermed LICUS (Low Income CountryUnder Stress) that might be classified as‘fragile states’.Distinctions between developed anddeveloping worlds are also changing— China is forecast <strong>to</strong> have overtaken <strong>the</strong>United States as <strong>the</strong> world’s largest economyby 2015, with India not far behind. Parts ofGlasgow have lower life expectancies thanSub-Saharan Africa. Four of <strong>the</strong> world’srichest billionaires are Indian. Many policyissues are common <strong>to</strong> countries at differentlevels of economic or social development.This increased global interconnectednessis expressing itself in a growing varietyof ways such as volatility in global markets(especially food, fuel and credit), climatechange, natural resources, technology(notably ICTs and industrial bio-fuels) andterrorism and security. The net outcomeof <strong>the</strong>se is rapid and widespread change <strong>to</strong>lifestyles and livelihoods and potentially anincrease in conflict over resources and largescalenational and international migra<strong>to</strong>rymovements.The MDGs have played a major role infocusing policy since <strong>the</strong>ir original incarnationin <strong>the</strong> 1990s and some bilateralagencies, notably <strong>the</strong> UK’s Department forInternational Development, have gone asfar as <strong>to</strong> judge <strong>the</strong> value of all <strong>the</strong>ir activitiesOCTOBER 2008 17

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!