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Clocaenog (Wales) is a field experiment<br />

in which for 10 years, areas<br />

with natural flora and fauna have<br />

been treated with warming at night<br />

and precipitation has been artificially<br />

eliminated for a period of approximately<br />

one month per year. Warming<br />

is created by night-roofing which<br />

raises <strong>the</strong> temperature in <strong>the</strong> soil by<br />

1-2 degrees, equivalent <strong>to</strong> how much<br />

it is expected <strong>to</strong> increase over <strong>the</strong><br />

next 50-100 years. Likewise, drought<br />

is created by roofing that au<strong>to</strong>matically<br />

rolls out when it rains. <strong>The</strong> effect<br />

of <strong>the</strong>se climatic manipulations on<br />

genetic changes is examined in <strong>the</strong><br />

project for certain species of plants<br />

and soil dwelling animals. Pho<strong>to</strong>: Elin<br />

Jørgensen<br />

Man affects nature<br />

<strong>The</strong> activities of man greatly affect <strong>the</strong> chances of survival of o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

living organisms. Recently, it has become clear that our various<br />

activities more or less are <strong>to</strong> blame for species becoming extinct<br />

globally and locally. <strong>The</strong> rate at which species and populations<br />

are becoming extinct has been estimated <strong>to</strong> be equal <strong>to</strong> or above<br />

previous periods of mass extinction, and scientific studies are nec-<br />

essary in order <strong>to</strong> understand <strong>the</strong> processes that lead <strong>to</strong> extinction.<br />

<strong>The</strong> species are threatened by a combination of several fac<strong>to</strong>rs.<br />

Many populations have become smaller and more isolated due <strong>to</strong><br />

changes in <strong>the</strong> landscape. In small populations, related individuals<br />

may breed (inbreeding) and erosion of <strong>the</strong> genetic diversity (vari-<br />

ance) may occur. This may lead <strong>to</strong> decreased resistance <strong>to</strong> diseases<br />

or reduced fertility. It also means that small populations will be<br />

less able <strong>to</strong> adapt evolutionarily <strong>to</strong> changes in <strong>the</strong> environment, as<br />

genetic variance is <strong>the</strong> basis for adaptation. <strong>The</strong>se different fac<strong>to</strong>rs<br />

that make life in a small population dangerous affect and reinforce<br />

each o<strong>the</strong>r in a so-called “extinction spiral”.<br />

Global climate change<br />

<strong>The</strong> entire world is facing <strong>the</strong> challenge of global<br />

climate change. <strong>The</strong> climate is a crucial determi-<br />

nant of which species are able <strong>to</strong> survive. Basically,<br />

a species is able <strong>to</strong> respond within 3 months of its<br />

environment having been changed: it may move<br />

(migrate) <strong>to</strong> new areas where <strong>the</strong> environment is<br />

better suited <strong>to</strong> its biology, or it may adapt <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

changes taking place in its current environment.<br />

If none of <strong>the</strong>se responses are possible, <strong>the</strong> species<br />

may become extinct.<br />

During previous periods of climate change, it<br />

may be assumed that <strong>the</strong> individual populations<br />

were <strong>to</strong> some extent able <strong>to</strong> find a suitable new<br />

environment, e.g. by migrating south or north.<br />

Today most species are “captured” in “nature is-<br />

lands” that are surrounded by a ‘hostile environ-<br />

ment’. <strong>The</strong> natural areas have largely been deter-<br />

mined and local populations may find it difficult<br />

<strong>to</strong> find new suitable areas, even if <strong>the</strong>y are able<br />

<strong>to</strong> migrate. This is why it is important <strong>to</strong> study<br />

how populations react <strong>to</strong> climate change and<br />

how <strong>the</strong>y adapt <strong>to</strong> e.g. higher temperatures. This<br />

knowledge will help us understand which genetic<br />

prerequisites must be fulfilled for adaption <strong>to</strong> a<br />

changing climate <strong>to</strong> succeed, how much time it<br />

takes, and which groups of animals and plants are<br />

particularly robust or fragile.<br />

Global warming? Graphics: NASA<br />

How do animals and plants respond <strong>to</strong> climate<br />

change?<br />

<strong>The</strong> climate is changing rapidly. Summers are warm-<br />

er and dryer and climatic fluctuations are becoming<br />

more extreme. This causes <strong>the</strong> living conditions for<br />

animals and plants <strong>to</strong> change. Climate change may<br />

lead <strong>to</strong> adverse living conditions for some species,<br />

while at <strong>the</strong> same time, some species, e.g. sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />

species, may be able <strong>to</strong> thrive in nor<strong>the</strong>rn latitudes.<br />

Changes in <strong>the</strong> composition of species may also po-<br />

tentially affect species that are not directly affected<br />

by climate change and may, thus, influence <strong>the</strong> en-<br />

tire ecosystem network. Species of <strong>the</strong> biological<br />

community affect each o<strong>the</strong>r, and <strong>the</strong> extinction of<br />

one species may cause a cascade of changes that may<br />

lead <strong>to</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r species’ disappearing or multiplying.<br />

In this way, biological systems consist of a myriad<br />

of interacting elements and each element cannot be<br />

seen as standing alone. Interactions may e.g. be be-<br />

tween preda<strong>to</strong>rs and prey, hosts and parasites, flow-<br />

ers and pollina<strong>to</strong>rs or seeds and seed distribu<strong>to</strong>rs.<br />

New invasive or newly introduced species (flora/<br />

fauna pollution) may be caused by similar imbal-<br />

ances.<br />

This project focuses on whe<strong>the</strong>r species are able <strong>to</strong><br />

adapt evolutionarily and, if so, whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>y can<br />

adapt “quickly enough”. Evolutionary adaptation<br />

implies genetic changes in a species’ genetic ma-<br />

50 EVOLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE VILLUM FOUNDATION 51<br />

TECHNICAL AND NATURAL SCIENCES

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