Frans van Poppel: a sort of farewell. Liber Amicorum. - NIDI

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The census and the historical demographerPeter Doorn‘The census tells us who we are and where we are going as a nation’, the United States CensusBureau tells us, and: “A census tells us not only about our past, but it can help us prepare forour future”. 1 Both statements make it clear why censuses are such an interesting source fordemographic and socio-economic research. If the current census tells us where we are going,past censuses tell us where we once thought we were going. Or, as the American census putsit: “So, how do we know about our nation? To better understand where we came from, let’stake a look back at what America was like during the first census.”Historical demographers can use such old censuses to ‘predict the past’. They andsocio-economic historians were the main target groups we had in mind when we started aproject back in 1996 to digitize the Dutch historical censuses from the first national one in 1795till the last traditional census held in our country in 1971. In 1981 and 1991, no census washeld in the Netherlands, mainly because of a (feared) lack of cooperation by the population.And from 2001 onwards, Statistics Netherlands (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, CBS)organised virtual censuses based on linked official registrations, with added information froma number of surveys. 2 Also in the early years there were gaps in the sequence of censuses.Since 1830 about every ten years a census was published; the Second World War causeda disruption and irregular census years (1947, 1956). It must be mentioned here, that theoriginal counting forms of the Dutch censuses have regrettably not been preserved. Only for1960 and 1971 we can avail of anonymized micro-level census information. For these yearsthe computer files have been preserved, be it that the 1960 files are not entirely complete. 3The census is indeed a basic source of information about the state of the nation, and as suchit seems to have great value for historical demographic research. Although it is a rich datasource, it also clearly has its limitations. Over his career, it seems that Frans van Poppel hasgradually moved away from using censuses as a prime source in favour of other sources forhis research. Other sources that are (1) longitudinal and (2) individual, in particular supplyinginformation on the changing position of the individual in the household, and on his or herhealth (and eventual death).1Explanation on the website of the US Census Bureau of what a census is good for. See: http://www.census.gov/2Eric Schulte Nordholt, Marijke Hartgers and Rita Gircour (eds. 2004), The Dutch Virtual Census of 2001: Analysis andMethodology (Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg/Heerlen), p. 276.3About 300,000 records are missing; for an extensive report see: Michelle van den Berk and Peter Doorn (2007), ‘Eendigitale detective story: de reconstructie van de Nederlandse Volkstelling van 1960’, in: Twee eeuwen Nederlandgeteld: onderzoek met de digitale Volks- Beroeps- en Woningtellingen 1795-2001, ed. by O.W.A. Boonstra et al. (DenHaag, 2007) pp. 471-487. An English version of this paper ‘Reconstruction of the digital Dutch Populations Census of1960’ is available on http://www.volkstellingen.nl/en/documentatie/1960/index.html28
Early in his career, Frans was co-author of one of the eighteen monographs published on thebasis of the 1971 census. 4 This monograph focused on nuptiality patterns in the Netherlands,starting with an extensive historical analysis, based on the censuses since 1889. Of course thetables were not yet available in digital form at that time, so I assume that Frans had to key inthe data he needed from the published census books himself. Of the last population censuses(1960 and 1971, and also of the economic censuses since the 1930 s as well), more detailedinformation than ever published survived, which is available in original hand-written form ontransparencies in the CBS archives, of which a copy was made for use in the CBS library. 5 Inthe past few years, many of these fragile originals have been scanned, and part of the tableshave also been transcribed as tables and are now available online. 6The Dutch census of 1899 was one of the most extensively published censuses, and it wasthe first census that became available in the form of about 10,000 pages of digital tablesin 1999. 7 It was only natural to invite Frans as one of the authors of a volume of articlesthat was produced on the occasion. 8 In his contribution, Frans describes how the Dutchpopulation developed from 5.1 million in 1899 to 16 million a century later. But already thenit is apparent that the census was in itself not rich enough for him, and that he used a varietyof other sources as well, ranging from annual reports of the Central Statistical Committee tomortality tables and genealogical data.A few years later, in 2006, we managed to publish the tables of the remaining census yearsonline. A symposium organised on that occasion brought together a substantial groupof specialists, both from Statistics Netherlands and from the academic community ofsocio-economic historians and historical demographers. The ultimate aim was to producea second book of papers on two centuries of the Netherlands in numbers. Of course, Franswas also invited. Although we tried to seduce him to collaborate in almost heart-breakingways, he politely declined. He only could contribute if he were allowed to base himself onthe population register, without using any census data at all. 9 Here the breach between thedemographer and the census was complete.4Frinking, G.A.B. and Poppel, F.W.A. van, Een sociaal-demografische analyse van de huwelijkssluiting in Nederland1979 VT Monografie no. 6.5Several years ago Frans confided me that he had a number of these originals in his office at NIDI. I can only hope thathe has returned them since then, and if not, may his retirement be a good occasion for returning them to the CBS6The handwritten materials of the censuses of 1947, 1956 and 1960 have been scanned; the labour force census of 1947is also available as spreadsheets. See: https://easy.dans.knaw.nl/ui/datasets/id/easy-dataset:43969 or urn:nbn:nl:ui:13-ggb-xtr7The original 1999 website is accessible at http://www.volkstelling1899.nl/; this was later updated as http://www.volkstellingen.nl/nl/volkstelling/jaarview/1899/index.html; the information is archived at https://easy.dans.knaw.nl/ui/datasets/id/easy-dataset:38770 or urn:nbn:nl:ui:13-988-0dq8Frans van Poppel (2001), ‘Van vijf naar 16 miljoen. De groei van de Nederlandse bevolking in de afgelopen eeuw’, in:J.G.S.J. van Maarseveen en P.K. Doorn (eds.), Nederland een eeuw geleden geteld. Een terugblik op de samenlevingrond 1900 (IISG, Amsterdam), pp. 65-87.9E-mail correspondence between Jacques van Maarseveen, Luuk Schreven, René van Horik and Frans van Poppel,November 2006.29
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Page 4 and 5: Publication:Nederlands Interdiscipl
Page 6: Religious and socio-economic determ
Page 10 and 11: 8IntroductionOn 27 December 2012 Fr
Page 13: Part IScope and Impact
Page 17: of further aspects of marriage, div
Page 20 and 21: ever-changing societal and normativ
Page 22 and 23: supposed ‘quality-quantity trade-
Page 24 and 25: The impact of a historical demograp
Page 26 and 27: and theoretical contributions, but
Page 29: Part IIData and Methods
Page 34 and 35: 32Sex ratios in global historical p
Page 36 and 37: appeared early, as in some southern
Page 38 and 39: available on female labour in India
Page 40 and 41: Kurosu, Satomi (1994), Sex ratios a
Page 42 and 43: adjustments and reactions are the s
Page 44: the extent of fertility recuperatio
Page 47 and 48: 25 Years of collaboration: The Hist
Page 49 and 50: Since 1995 numerous volunteers have
Page 51 and 52: Part IIIFertility and Nuptiality
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1. GDP per capita, unemploym
Page 55 and 56: while the GDP continued to grow som
Page 57 and 58: Map 1. Communities covered by the C
Page 59 and 60: Above all, our empirical study demo
Page 61 and 62: The proportion of consanguineous ma
Page 63 and 64: Earlier studies have shown that par
Page 65 and 66: Verzuiling (‘pillarisation’), o
Page 67: The crumbling of the Roman Catholic
Page 70 and 71: In the 1970 s , exemption from serv
Page 72 and 73: DataTo examine this issue, I use da
Page 74 and 75: ConclusionThese results confirm the
Page 76 and 77: confirmed for one dependent variabl
Page 78 and 79: ReferencesBlau, Peter M. and Otis D
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78Origins of the ‘western Europea
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ReferencesGoldberg, P.J.P. (1992),
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Figure 1. Fertility, mortality, and
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century Nakahara. 1 Nevertheless, i
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86Are we getting sick of low income
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Neither alone nor neglected:The eld
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Figure 3. Percentage widowers cores
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Spouse n.i. n.i. n.i.absent 0,50 1
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Childbearing and longevity - the co
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98Excess mortality during the Dutch
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Table 1. Available vital statistics
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Mededeelingenvan het bureauvoor sta
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gender, and in selected age groups
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Divergence of life expectancy and t
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a. MenTable 1. Variation in life ex
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absolute terms current disparities
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ReferencesLeon, D.A., V.M. Shkolnik
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climate change and secondly, that t
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Browning, Christopher R., Danielle
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populations where life expectancy a
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120Demographic systems and populati
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The impact of the 1911 heat wave on
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in the effect of heat on mortality.
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ReferencesCapellmann, Carl (1877),
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Biography of the authorsGeorge Alte
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Jan Kok (1959) studied social histo
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His thesis, published in 1997 as AA
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