Frans van Poppel: a sort of farewell. Liber Amicorum. - NIDI

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issue of migration between more than one population. Multi-state demography proved to bea gem in projections of individual household positions as well (e.g. the Van Imhoff-KeilmanLIPRO model), and has even been an indispensable tool for well-reasoned ‘speculation’ aboutthe religious or political composition of populations. In all these endeavors, one does not losetrack of the composing elements and transition probabilities, and the output can be understood‘analytically’ from the input. With multi-state demography we are at the opposite end of thespectrum when compared to the massive shortcut hiding under the term ‘probabilistic’.My advice for the next cohorts of demographers? Demography is at the micro level (i)the study of individual life courses as they evolve, generation after generation, over timeand space, and (ii) of the impact of all factors that impact on the life course. At the macrolevel demography is the study of how all these individual pieces add up to a larger whole,and how the structure of this larger entity –a population– feeds back into constraints andopportunities for its constituting members. Hence, let’s keep the life course unfolding amongsuccessive generations, and all its intriguing alterations over time and space, as the core, andinvest in technical advances that are in line with this objective. The way forward in technicaldemography is therefore that of increasing analytical finesse to cope with complexity, not thatof blunt shortcuts.ReferencesTomas Frejka (2012), The role of contemporary childbearing postponement and recuperation in shapingfertility trends. Comparative Population Studies – Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Preprintrelease of September, 27, 2012.Tomas Sobotka et al. (2011), Postponement and recuperation in cohort fertility: New analytical andprojection methods and their application. European Demographic Research Papers. Vienna Instituteof Demography, Vienna, 2.44
25 Years of collaboration: The Historical Sample of theNetherlands and LINKSKees MandemakersThe Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) collects life course data as completely aspossible for a representative portion of the 19 th and 20 th century Dutch population. Base ofthe sample are the birth certificates. Most of the data for the construction of life courses areextracted from the population registers which makes it possible to follow migrants all overthe country. This feature makes the HSN database internationally unique.The HSN started around 1987 with the formation of a work group whose members were fromdifferent social science disciplines like sociology, social-economic history, social geography,economics and demography, all sharing a relatively strong historical interest. The projectstarted with a first meeting in an obscure restaurant near Utrecht Central Station, called the‘Pepper Box’ photo 1.Photo 1. Bar Pepper Box in the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands45
Page 2 and 3:
Page 4 and 5: Publication:Nederlands Interdiscipl
Page 6: Religious and socio-economic determ
Page 10 and 11: 8IntroductionOn 27 December 2012 Fr
Page 13: Part IScope and Impact
Page 17: of further aspects of marriage, div
Page 20 and 21: ever-changing societal and normativ
Page 22 and 23: supposed ‘quality-quantity trade-
Page 24 and 25: The impact of a historical demograp
Page 26 and 27: and theoretical contributions, but
Page 29 and 30: Part IIData and Methods
Page 31 and 32: Early in his career, Frans was co-a
Page 34 and 35: 32Sex ratios in global historical p
Page 36 and 37: appeared early, as in some southern
Page 38 and 39: available on female labour in India
Page 40 and 41: Kurosu, Satomi (1994), Sex ratios a
Page 42 and 43: adjustments and reactions are the s
Page 44: the extent of fertility recuperatio
Page 49 and 50: Since 1995 numerous volunteers have
Page 51 and 52: Part IIIFertility and Nuptiality
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1. GDP per capita, unemploym
Page 55 and 56: while the GDP continued to grow som
Page 57 and 58: Map 1. Communities covered by the C
Page 59 and 60: Above all, our empirical study demo
Page 61 and 62: The proportion of consanguineous ma
Page 63 and 64: Earlier studies have shown that par
Page 65 and 66: Verzuiling (‘pillarisation’), o
Page 67: The crumbling of the Roman Catholic
Page 70 and 71: In the 1970 s , exemption from serv
Page 72 and 73: DataTo examine this issue, I use da
Page 74 and 75: ConclusionThese results confirm the
Page 76 and 77: confirmed for one dependent variabl
Page 78 and 79: ReferencesBlau, Peter M. and Otis D
Page 80 and 81: 78Origins of the ‘western Europea
Page 82 and 83: ReferencesGoldberg, P.J.P. (1992),
Page 84 and 85: Figure 1. Fertility, mortality, and
Page 86 and 87: century Nakahara. 1 Nevertheless, i
Page 88 and 89: 86Are we getting sick of low income
Page 91 and 92: Neither alone nor neglected:The eld
Page 93 and 94: Figure 3. Percentage widowers cores
Page 95 and 96:
Spouse n.i. n.i. n.i.absent 0,50 1
Page 97 and 98:
Childbearing and longevity - the co
Page 100 and 101:
98Excess mortality during the Dutch
Page 102 and 103:
Table 1. Available vital statistics
Page 104 and 105:
Mededeelingenvan het bureauvoor sta
Page 106 and 107:
gender, and in selected age groups
Page 108 and 109:
Divergence of life expectancy and t
Page 110 and 111:
a. MenTable 1. Variation in life ex
Page 112 and 113:
absolute terms current disparities
Page 114 and 115:
ReferencesLeon, D.A., V.M. Shkolnik
Page 116 and 117:
climate change and secondly, that t
Page 118 and 119:
Browning, Christopher R., Danielle
Page 120 and 121:
populations where life expectancy a
Page 122 and 123:
120Demographic systems and populati
Page 125 and 126:
The impact of the 1911 heat wave on
Page 127 and 128:
in the effect of heat on mortality.
Page 129 and 130:
ReferencesCapellmann, Carl (1877),
Page 131 and 132:
Biography of the authorsGeorge Alte
Page 133 and 134:
Jan Kok (1959) studied social histo
Page 135 and 136:
His thesis, published in 1997 as AA
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Frans van Poppel: a sort of farewell. Liber Amicorum. - NIDI

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