52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World - World Future Society

52 Trends ShapingTomorrow’s WorldBy Marvin J. Cetron and Owen DaviesIntroductionFor nearly half a century, Forecasting International has been tracking the forces that shapeour future. Some 20 years ago, we codified our observations into a list of trends that formsthe basis for much of our work. For each of our projects, we compare the specific circumstancesof an industry or organization with these general trends and project their interactions.This often allows us to form a remarkably detailed picture of what lies ahead.Over the years, the number of trends has varied. In this latest edition, we have eliminateda number of trends that had run their course and added four that have risen toprominence. For example, we no longer track the decline of labor unions; they havelost so much of their influence that they are no longer relevant to most subjects wemight examine, with the possible exception of the future of unions themselves.Trends we are watching now include the failure of job creation to provide securelives for Americans who depend on wages for their survival, the growing fragilityof our high-tech world, and the spread of cyberwarfare. We also have reorganizedthe list to clarify the relationships among many of the trends.We would not attempt to make very long-range forecasts based on these trends.Technological projections become extremely difficult more than two decadesinto the future, while even demographics lose much of their value beyondabout 2050. But for studies in the near and medium term, five to 20 yearsahead, we have found this list of trends enormously useful.Whatever topic interests you, some of these trends will affect it directly.Others will help to form the world in which we live and work. They allare worth paying attention to.© 2010 World Future Society, www.wfs.org

Economic Trends■ 1The economy of the developedworld is beginning a newround of growth.GÜNAY MUTLU / ISTOCKPHOTO• The Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development(OECD) predicts 1.9% growth amongits 30 member nations in 2010 and2.5% in 2011. The International MonetaryFund (IMF) puts world growthat 4% in 2010 and 4.3% in 2011.• After six very bad quarters, theU.S. economy finally returned to theblack in the third quarter of 2009,growing at an annual rate of 3.5%. Inthe fourth quarter, it soared to 5.9%.Private consumption, exports, privateinventory investment, and residentialfixed investment all improved,in addition to increasedfederal spending. Economists generallypredict U.S. growth of 3% in2010, while OECD forecasts 2.5% in2010 and 2.8% in 2011. Others put2010 growth as high as 3.8%, with2011 coming in at 4.6%The limiting factor is unemployment,which reached 10.2% in theUnited States in October 2009. OECDexpects jobless numbers to peak inthe first half of 2010. It will take atleast five years to bring employmentback to its pre-recession level. Untilthat is accomplished, unemploymentwill be a drag on consumer spendingand GDP growth.• China is driving the global recovery.Even in its weakest quarter,Q2 2009, Beijing reported 6.1% GDPgrowth. For the year, that was up to8.4%, the strongest for any majoreconomy. The IMF predicts GDPgrowth in China of 10% in 2010,while the OECD expects 9.3% in2011.• The European Union predicts2010 growth of 0.7% in the euro-denominatedeconomies and 1.5% in2011. This follows a loss of 4% in2009. The IMF puts 2010 growth atan anemic 0.3%. In the last quarter of2009, it came in at just 0.1%.• Japan’s economy grew by 4.8%in Q3 2009, handily beating expectationsand officially ending the country’srecession. Capital spending, exports,and consumer spending allimproved. The Bank of Japan expectsgrowth of 1.2% in 2010, acceleratingtoward the end of the year.• India’s economy grew by 6.1% in2009, according to the IMF, whichforecasts growth of 7.7% in 2010.• Inflation remains under control,according to official reports. In January2010, the United States reporteda rise in consumer prices of 2.7% annually.In the Euro area, it stood at-0.9% in December, with the U.K.’s1.2% inflation the highest among majorEuropean economies. Pricegrowth in China and Japan also heldin negative numbers.Assessment and Implications:New growth among all these tradingpartners should create a “benevolentcycle,” in which the health of eachpartner helps to ensure the continuedhealth of the rest for at least thenext several years. If a rising tide liftsall boats, most of the world’s countriesshould be floating high in theyears ahead.The round of growth now beginningshould continue at least through2015.China has developed into an effectivecounterbalance for the U.S. economy.When America hits hard times,China can keep the world from followinginto recession. We first sawthis in the post-9/11 crunch in theUnited States. This should make theglobal economy much more stablefor so long as China remains a vibranttrading nation.Any interruptions in economicgrowth over the next five yearsshould be relatively short-lived. Theneed to pay down large deficits willrestrain economic growth, particularlyin the United States, but ForecastingInternational (FI) sees littleprospect that it will drive economiesinto the second dip of a compoundrecession or that government spendingwill trigger uncontrolled inflation.n 2Integration of the global economycontinues.• By some counts, only half of theworld’s 100 largest economies arenation-states. The rest are multinationalcorporations. Toyota alone hasmanufacturing or assembly plants in22 countries.• International sales make upnearly half of all revenue for the S&P500 companies. International revenuegrowth has outpaced domesticgrowth since at least 2003.• International business-to-business(B2B) growth has been especiallyquick. In 2008, domestic B2Brevenues for the S&P 500 gained only0.4%, while international B2B revenueexpanded by 10.8%.• The European Union’s commoncurrency and increasingly uniformproduct standards continue to makeit easier for companies to distributeproducts and support functionsthroughout the Continent.• The Internet continues to bringmanufacturers effectively closer toremote suppliers, service firms, andcustomers.• Companies are increasinglyfarming out high-cost, low-payoffsecondary functions to suppliers,service firms, and consultants, manyof them located in other countries.Parts for the Boeing 787 Dreamlinerare being constructed in at least eightcountries around the world for assemblyin the United States.• Companies in high-wage countriesalso are outsourcing management,R&D, and service jobs to lowwagecountries. For instance, anestimated 40 million American jobsmay now be vulnerable to outsourcing.2 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

• Companies in job-receivingcountries have begun to establishbranches in the donor lands. For example,India’s Wipro has branches inVirginia and Ohio, allowing the companyboth to hire top-quality Americanprogrammers and to help tap thelucrative government market.• Jobs in western Europe are migratingto eastern Europe, the formerSoviet Union, and the English- andFrench-speaking former colonies ofAfrica. India has begun to ship jobsto even lower-cost countries in Africa.• India and China are forming amassive economic bloc containingsome 40% of the world’s population.The number of business flights betweenthem has more than doubledeach year since 2006. In 2009, talksbegan to formalize this de facto arrangementinto an official commonmarket.Assessment and Implications: Theglobal recession of 2008–2009 hasdampened free-trade enthusiasm,while problems have discouragedsome U.S. companies from outsourcingcustomer-service functions toAsia. Nonetheless, cost pressuresguarantee that companies will continueto ship jobs overseas until payscales in the developing world rise(or those in the developed world fall)far enough to erode the benefit of doingso.The growth of e-commerce enablesbusinesses to shop globally for thecheapest raw materials and supplies.In niche markets, the Internet alsomakes it possible for small companiesto compete with giants worldwidewith relatively little investment.This has increased the risk of quality-controlproblems and fraudulentcost-cutting by suppliers, as seen inthe recent spate of tainted food andother products coming from China.The Internet also has created ageneration of “e-preneurs” whosebusinesses exist largely on the Internet,with production, fulfillment, andother functions all outsourced to specialtyfirms.Demand will continue to grow foremployee incentives suited to othercultures, aid to executives goingoverseas, and the many other aspectsof doing business in foreign coun-tries. However, rising demand forforeign-language training is likely tobe a temporary phenomenon, asmore countries adopt English as partof their basic school curricula.Western companies may have toaccept that proprietary informationwill be shared not just with their immediatepartners in Asian joint ventures,but also with other membersof the partners’ trading conglomerates.In high technology and aerospace,this may expose companies toextra scrutiny due to national-securityconcerns. Establishing overseasbranches mitigates this concern bykeeping trade secrets within thecompany, even while gaining thebenefits of cheaper foreign labor andother resources.Economic ties can give richer, morepowerful countries considerable influenceover their junior partners.Thus far, China has been the mostsuccessful at wielding this “soft”power. This has given it the ability toundermine U.S. foreign policy evenas it secures its energy and raw-materialsneeds. Establishment of anAsian common market could makeChina, India, and their partners theeffective center of the global economy.n 3Consumerism is stillgrowing.• A networked society is a consumeristsociety. Shoppers increasinglyhave access to informationabout pricing, services, deliverytime, and customer reviews on theInternet. Marketers, of course, canalso check the competition’s offeringsand shift competition from priceto improvements in service andsalesmanship.• Children in the United States becomeshoppers as young as age sixand become aware of brands at agetwo or three, due largely to child-focusedadvertising.• The millennial generation is becomingincreasingly prone to compulsivespending. In the UnitedStates, 10% of millennials can be classifiedas clinically compulsive spenders,compared with 5% of Gen Xersand perhaps 3% of baby boomers.However, the shock of the recent recessionmay have mitigated thisproblem. It will be several years beforeenough data are available to answerthis open question.Assessment and Implications:Consumer advocacy agencies andorganizations will continue to proliferate,promoting improved contentlabels, warning notices, nutritiondata, and the like on packaging, TV,the Internet, and even restaurantmenus.Europe, Japan, China, and othermarkets are undergoing the samerevolution that has replaced America’sneighborhood stores with costcuttingwarehouse operations, discounterssuch as Walmart, and“category killers” like Staples andHome Depot.However, the cultural and politicalpower of farmers and small shopowners has slowed this trend insome areas, particularly in Japan.In response to the recent contaminationof food imported from China,the U.S. Food and Drug Administrationwill be required to improvescreening of incoming food products.However, it will not receive adequatefunding to do the job effectively.As prices fall to commodity levelsand online stores can list virtuallyevery product and brand in their inventorywithout significant overhead,service is the only field left inwhich marketers on and off the Internetcan compete effectively.Branded items with good reputationsare even more important fordeveloping repeat business.n 4Research and developmentplay an expanding role in theworld economy.• R&D spending by the world’s1,000 largest companies has been expandingat a compound annualgrowth rate of 7.1% for the last fiveyears, according to an annual surveyby Booz & Company. Spending variedwidely by sector. Worldwide,more than 60% of auto companies inthe study cut their R&D programs,while 80% of Internet and softwarefirms raised theirs.• Total U.S. outlays on R&D havegrown steadily for the past three decades.In 2008, the top 531 R&D firmsin the United States spent $221 billionon R&D, or an average of 4.5%World Future Society, www.wfs.org • 3

of revenues. Corporate R&D in theUnited States has shifted in recentyears, with less emphasis on pharmaceuticalsand computer-relatedfields and more focus on biotechnology,nanotechnology, and securitytechnologies.• China has taken second place inthe world’s R&D spending, with abudget estimated at $136 billion in2006, up from $60 billion in 2001.Still more spending may be hiddenin military budgets. China says itwill raise its R&D spending fromabout 1.23% of GDP in 2004 to 2.5%in 2020. In 2008, it spent 40% moreon R&D than the year before. China’soutput of research papers increasedfrom just over 20,000 in 1998 tonearly 112,000 in 2008. It passedJapan, Germany, and the UnitedKingdom in 2006. A study by the EuropeanUnion predicts that Chinaand India will lead the world in R&Dby 2025.• R&D outlays in Japan have risenalmost continuously, to nearly 3.5%of GDP. In 2007, Japan spent about$148 billion on R&D. In 2008, itsR&D spending grew by 4.4%.• R&D spending by the top 350companies in the European Unionamounted to $170 billion in 2008, up8.1% in a year.• In Russia, government R&Dfunding amounted to about $53 billionin 2008, approximately 60% oftotal research funding in the country.Some 44% of Russia’s R&D budgetgoes to defense research, 10% tospace. These figures omit whateverclandestine military research escapesnotice. Owing to the global recession,however, Russia’s research budgetfaced planned cuts of 30% in 2009.• Western corporations are outsourcinga growing fraction of theirR&D to foreign contractors, just asthey do other functions. Much of thiswork goes to India, some to Russiaand eastern Europe, but the growtharea is China.Assessment and Implications:This is a significant factor in the accelerationof technological change.The demand for scientists, engineers,and technicians will continueto grow, particularly in fields whereresearch promises an immediatebusiness payoff.Low-wage countries such as Chinaonce took only low-wage jobs fromadvanced industrialized countries.Today, higher-paid jobs in science,technology, and the professions alsoare at risk.Countries like India, China, andRussia once suffered a brain drain asthose with high-tech skills emigratedto high-demand, high-wage destinations.Today, many students and professionalsspend time in the West tolearn cutting-edge skills, and then returnto their native lands to work,start companies, and teach. This promotesthe growth of some developingcountries while reducing thecompetitive advantages of the developedworld.n 5Services are growing fasterthan any other sector of theglobal economy.• Service jobs have replaced manyof the well-paid positions lost inmanufacturing, transportation, andagriculture. These new jobs, oftenpart time, pay half the wages ofmanufacturing jobs. On the otherhand, computer-related service jobspay much more than the minimumfor workers with sound educationand training. Medicine, the law, andmany other well-paid occupationsalso fall into the service sector.• Service industries provide morethan 79% of the GDP in the UnitedStates, 77% in France, 74% in Britain,73% in Japan, and 70% in Germany.In each case, services are growingrapidly; other sectors, less so.• Service industries account forabout 77% of private nonfarm employmentin the United States, upfrom 70% in 1990. Services accountedfor the entire net gain in U.S. privateemployment in the decade ending2010.• In Britain, services provide 80.4%of jobs; in France, 72%; in Japan, 68%;in Germany, 64%. In each case, thepercentage of service employment isrising.• In contrast, services in Chinaprovide only 40.5% of GDP and 33%of employment. In India, they accountfor 63% of GDP and perhaps35% of jobs. (Sector employmentdata for India are extremely dated.)• In the decade ending in 2016,service industries will provide 15.7million new jobs, according to theU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).• Education and health serviceswill add 5.5 million jobs, more than30% of all new jobs expected for theperiod. Employment in professional,scientific, and technical services willgrow by 28.8% and add 2.1 millionnew jobs by 2016.• Production and less-skilled jobs,in contrast, are disappearing. By2014, the United States is expected tohave more chief executives than machinetool operators, more lawyersthan farm workers.• Meeting the BLS estimate of 15.7million new jobs by 2016 would requirethe creation of some 300,000jobs every month from November2009 on. This assumes that it is necessaryto make up the 8.4 millionjobs that the official numbers sayhave been lost since the recession began.It omits 10 million or morepeople who either have given uplooking for work or have settled forpart-time employment.Assessment and Implications:This trend is helping to deplete themiddle class, as well-paid jobs inmanufacturing are replaced by illpaidservice positions, leaving acountry of “have lots” and “havenots,” but relatively few “haveenoughs.”Services are now beginning tocompete globally, just as manufacturingindustries have done over thelast 20 years. By creating competitivepressure on wages in the industrializedlands, this trend will help tokeep inflation in check.The growth of international businesswill act as a stabilizing force inworld affairs, as most countries findthat conflict is unacceptably hard onthe bottom line.n 6Job creation is ceasing toprovide employment for allwho need it.• According to official estimates, ittakes 100,000 jobs per month to absorbyoung people and others justentering the labor force. BetweenJanuary 1999 and October 2009, theU.S. economy generated an averageof only 26,000 jobs per month.• Most economists believe it willtake five years—that is, to 2015—just4 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

to replace the 8.4 million jobs lost todate in the post-2007 recession.• Of the workers who lost middleclassor better jobs during the 2001–2002 recession, an estimated twothirdswere forced to accept positionsthat paid much less well and oftenrequired a radical loss of lifestyle.• In Europe, job losses are expectedto top 20 million before therecession ends in 2010.• The economic turmoil of recentyears is only partly responsible forthis trend. It has accelerated the continuingreplacement of human laborby computers and automation. In theUnited States, worker productivityrose by 6.9% (annualized) in the secondquarter of 2009, 9.5% in thethird, and 6.4% in the fourth. Formore than a decade, most productivitygains have come in industriesthat have been reworking businessprocesses to incorporate computersand automation.• In Europe, where companieshave been slower to adopt computerizedwork methods, productivitygains have been just over half asquick as in the United States.• The other side of growing productivityis a declining need for humanworkers. If you raise productivityby 2.5%, you need 2.5% fewerworkers to deliver the same amountof goods or services. Employmentgrowth slows. And when productiv-ity grows faster than the market, employmentdeclines.• As computers become morepowerful, they can take over morejobs that now require human input.Within 10 years, they will be capableof carrying out almost any task thatdoes not need actual human hands.Manufacturing already is all but lostto human labor. Service, management,and even many research jobsare next. Human workers will be employableonly in jobs that cater to thewealthy, who enjoy the exclusivity ofbeing waited on, and where they canget the job done even more cheaplythan computers and automated machinery.Assessment and Implications:This trend is inevitable. The UnitedStates and other developed landswill become essentially jobless societieswithin the lifetimes of today’syounger adults. Other lands will followas they become able to afford thenecessary technology. The only questionsleft are of timing.One of the most important functionsof a society is to distributewealth so that the majority of peoplehave at least the opportunity to providea secure life for themselves andtheir families. The jobs-for-wagesmodel adopted during the IndustrialRevolution is losing the ability to fulfillthis mission.Within 10 years, the United Stateswill begin to follow Europe’s lead,reducing the workweek so that jobsand income can be divided amongmore people.The developed world faces a moresevere decline in living standardsthan many people recognize. Eventually,it will be necessary to scrapthe current system in favor of someother means of fairly distributingsociety’s wealth. Developing thatsystem may be the most pressing unrecognizednecessity now facing theUnited States and its peers.Population Trendsn 7The world’s population isgrowing rapidly, though notas fast as it once did.• Expect 9.2 billion people to feedby 2050.• Average annual growth worldwidepeaked at 2.19% in 1963 andhas fallen steadily since. The U.S.Census Bureau’s International DataBase projects that annual growth willfall below 1% in 2016 and below0.5% by 2047.• The greatest fertility is found inthose countries least able to supporttheir existing populations. Countrieswith the largest population increasesbetween 2000 and 2050 include PalestinianTerritory (217%), NigerSTUDIO VISION / ISTOCKPHOTOWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 5

(205%), Yemen (168%), Angola(162%), the Democratic Republic ofCongo (161%), and Uganda (133%).The Muslim world is especially fertile,with fertility rates of 7.5 in Afghanistan,6.0 in Yemen, and 4.9 inIraq. Of the 2.7 billion extra peoplein the world in 2050, about 40% willlive in sub-Saharan Africa and 30%in the Muslim world.• In contrast to the developingworld, many industrialized countrieswill see fertility rates below the replacementlevel and hence significantdeclines in populations, excludingthe effects of immigration. Thismeans that developed nations’ shareof world population will fall from14% in 2000 to only 10% in 2050.• By 2015, the workforce in Japanand much of Europe will be shrinkingby 1% per year. By the 2030s, itwill contract by 1.5% annually.Assessment and Implications:Even these estimates may be muchtoo low. According to the Center forStrategic and International Studies(CSIS), most official projections underestimateboth fertility and futuregains in longevity. They also assumethat life expectancy will grow moreslowly in the future, which seemsunlikely.Rapid population growth in theUnited States compared with its industrializedcompetitors will reinforceAmerican domination of theglobal economy, as the EuropeanUnion falls to third place behind theUnited States and China.To meet human nutritional needsover the next 40 years, global agriculturewill have to supply as muchfood as it has produced during all ofhuman history.Unless fertility in the developedlands climbs dramatically, eitherwould-be retirees will have to remainon the job or the industrializednations will have to encourage evenmore immigration from the developingworld. The third alternative is asharp economic contraction andlower living standards. A fourth isthe widespread automation of servicejobs as well as manufacturing toaccomplish the work needed to supportaccustomed living standards.We expect to see a combination of allfour approaches.Barring enactment of strict immi-gration controls, rapid migration willcontinue from the Southern Hemisphereto the North, and especiallyfrom former colonies to Europe. Agrowing percentage of job applicantsin the United States and Europe willbe recent immigrants from developingcountries.n 8People living in the developedworld are living longer.• Each generation lives longer andremains healthier than the last. Sincethe beginning of the twentieth century,every generation in the UnitedStates has lived three years longerthan the previous one. An 80-yearoldin 1950 could expect 6.5 moreyears of life; today’s 80-year-olds arelikely to survive 8.5 more years. Lifeexpectancy in Australia, Japan, andSwitzerland is now over 75 years formales and over 80 for females.• The development of new pharmaceuticalsand medical technologiesis making it possible to preventor cure diseases that would havebeen fatal to earlier generations. Inmany developed countries, creditalso goes to government health programs,which have made these treatmentsavailable to many or all residents.In the developing lands, aprimary cause is the availability ofgeneric drugs, which cut the cost ofcare and make health affordable evenfor the poor.Assessment and Implications:Medical advances that slow the fundamentalprocess of aging now seemto be within reach. (This is a controversialissue within the medical community,but the evidence appearsstrong.) Such treatments could wellhelp today’s middle-aged babyboomers to live far longer than evenCSIS anticipates. In the developedworld, younger generations arelikely to live routinely beyond thecentury mark.Global demand for products andservices aimed at the elderly willgrow quickly in the immediatefuture, but this trend may pass as geriatricmedicine improves the healthof the elderly.Developed countries may face socialinstability as a result of competitionfor resources between retirement-ageboomers and theirworking-age children and grandchildren.At the present rate of growth,public spending on retirement benefitsin the United States and otherdeveloped countries could be onefourthof GDP by 2050, even as thenumber of workers available to supporteach retiree declines sharply.Any practical extension of the humanlife span almost surely will prolonghealth as well and will reducethe incidence of late-life disorderssuch as cancer, heart disease, arthritis,and possibly Alzheimer’s disease.This would dramatically reducedemand for products and services inthe senior market, at least in the developedworld. FI believes this developmentis nearer than even manyresearchers expect.Healthier aging in the developedworld may offer new hope to theworld’s poorer, sicker lands. Facedwith declining growth in their pharmaceuticalindustries, Western nations—andparticularly the UnitedStates—are likely to subsidizeresearch and treatment for diseasesthat burden the poor countries of Africaand Asia. This will give thoselands their first real prospects foreconomic growth and improvedquality of life.n 9The world’s elderly populationis growing dramatically.• Worldwide, the elderly (age 65and older) numbered 440 millionand represented 6% of the globalpopulation in 2002. Their numberswill nearly double by 2020 (to morethan 9% of total population) andmore than triple by 2050 (to nearly17%), according to the U.S. CensusBureau’s International Data Base.• In the developed world, peopleage 60 and older made up one-fifthof the population in 2000 and willgrow to one-third in the next halfcentury.• Between 2000 and 2050, the 60+age group in the less-developedcountries will grow from only one intwelve to one in five.• The first baby boomers turn 65in 2011. Thereafter, 10,000 Americanswill turn 65 every day. Only half willmaintain their standard of living inretirement. One in four will be dependenton government programs.6 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

nothing. Increased surveillance hasbecome socially acceptable in an agewhen many people fear terrorismand crime. In the United States, thegrowth of surveillance also is drivenby the fear that lawsuits following afuture terrorist attack could claimthat failure to install monitoringequipment constitutes negligence.Assessment and Implications: Inthe future, privacy is likely to be defined,not by the ability to keep informationtruly secret, but by the legalpower to restrict its distribution.Even this limited form of privacywill be eroded as both governmentand private organizations find legaljustification for their interest in personalinformation. Once access isgranted to any type of information, itis unlikely ever to be rescinded.In large and medium-sized citiesaround the world, spaces that remainunwatched by video cameras willcontinue to shrink.Growing numbers of companies,and even private citizens, will encrypttheir computer data.The number of criminal casesbased on surveillance will grow rapidlyin countries with the requiredtechnological sophistication and infrastructure.Private citizens increasingly willuse similar technologies to watchover government abuse, as in caseswhere bystanders have recorded policemisconduct with their cell-phonecameras.n 13The physical-culture andpersonal-health movementswill remain strong, but far from universal.• Emphasis on preventive medicinecontinues to grow. Of late, a fewinsurance carriers—but more eachyear—have expanded coverage orreduced premiums for policyholderswith healthy lifestyles.• Legislation has sometimes mandatedchange. Since 2005, for instance,49 out of 50 U.S. states haverequired insurers to pay for mammograms.• Health is continuing to improvein the United States, but less quickly.During the 1990s, health in theUnited States improved by 1.5% annually,based on such measures assmoking prevalence, health-insurancecoverage, infant mortality rates,and premature deaths. During the2000s, health improvement hasslowed to just 0.2% a year.• Health consciousness is spreadingto Europe. For example, a recentpoll found that two-thirds of Britonsnow spend more to maintain ahealthy lifestyle than they did adecade ago, and three out of four saythey enjoy leading a healthy lifestyle.Unfortunately, much of the developingworld still worries more abouteating enough than about eatinghealthy.• Smoking is in general decline inthe United States. Fewer than 20% ofAmerican adults smoked cigarettesas of 2007, down from 24.7% in 1997,according to the Centers for DiseaseControl. This is still far from theCDC’s Healthy People 2010 Goal of12%. About 42.5% of current smokersreported that they had tried tostop smoking within the last year.• The antismoking movement alsohas made its way to Europe. Irelandbanned smoking from its pubs latein April 2004. In 2006, France bannedsmoking in public facilities. Britainfollowed suit in 2007.• The global obesity crisis is a significantcountertrend to the physicalculturemovement. Poor diet, physicalinactivity, and associated obesitycontribute to 47% of diseases and60% of deaths worldwide. Developingcountries that “Westernize” theirdiets by consuming more foods highin fat, sugar, and salt are at risk ofepidemic obesity, including amongchildren and adolescents.• The current epidemic of obesityin the United States is especiallytroubling. The number of childrenwho are overweight has tripled since1980, to about 18% for those age sixor older. However, there is some evidencethat obesity has begun to stabilizeamong American adults. Therate of obesity among women appearsto have reached a plateau inthe last six years.Assessment and Implications:Continuing health improvements inthe industrialized world will be accompaniedby a dramatic rise inheart disease, diabetes, cancer, andother such “lifestyle” disorders inthe developing lands.As the nutrition and wellnessmovements spread, they will furtherimprove the health of the elderly.Better health in later life will makeus still more conscious of our appearanceand physical condition.Thus, health clubs will continue toboom, and some will specialize inthe needs of older fitness buffs. Diet,fitness, stress control, and wellnessprograms will prosper.By 2015, Congress will add coverageof many preventive-care activitiesto Medicare benefits.The cost of health care for Americanbaby boomers and their childrencould be much lower in later lifethan is now believed. However, Asiafaces an epidemic of cancer, heartdisease, emphysema, and otherchronic and fatal illnesses related tohealth habits.Like tobacco companies, producersof snack foods, liquor, and other unhealthyproducts will increasinglytarget markets in developing countrieswhere this trend has yet to befelt.Chronic diseases related to obesityburden national economies andcould thwart economic progress indeveloping countries.n 14Time is becoming the world’smost precious commodity.• In the United States, workersspend about 10% more time on thejob than they did a decade ago. Europeanexecutives and nonunionizedworkers face the same trend.• Computers, electronic communications,the Internet, and other technologiesare making national and internationaleconomies much morecompetitive.• In this high-pressure environment,single workers and two-incomecouples are increasingly desperatefor any product that offers tosimplify their lives or grant them ataste of luxury—and they can affordto buy it.• China’s rapid economic developmentmeans its workers also are experiencingfaster-paced and timepressuredlives. In a recent survey bythe Chinese news portal Sina.com,56% of respondents said they feltshort of time.• Technical workers and execu-World Future Society, www.wfs.org • 9

tives in India are beginning to reportthe same job-related stresses, particularlywhen they work on U.S. andEuropean schedules.Assessment and Implications:Time pressures are likely to grow aschanging technologies add the needfor lifelong study to the many commitmentsthat compete for the averageworker’s time.Stress-related problems affectingemployee morale and wellness willcontinue to grow. Companies musthelp employees balance their time atwork with their family lives andneed for leisure. This may reduceshort-term profits but will aid profitabilityin the long run.As time for shopping continues toevaporate, Internet and mail-ordermarketers will have a growing advantageover traditional stores.Some 64% of Chinese workers surveyedsaid they were never late towork and were intolerant of otherpeople’s tardiness. This trend suggestsa new cultural challenge to thetraditional Chinese belief in a leisurelyexistence.China, India, and other developingcountries can expect consumertrends similar to those in the UnitedStates as workers seek out conveniencefoods, household help, andminor luxuries to compensate fortheir lack of leisure time.n 15Despite some xenophobicreactions to immigrants, thereis growing acceptance of diversity.• Migration is mixing disparatepeoples and forcing them to findways to coexist peacefully and productively.• The Internet and other technologiespromote long-distance communicationand build links between distantand disparate people.• Mass media—including television,radio, films, interactive games,and music—tend to homogenizeglobal culture as they promote acommon language, mores, and culturalreference points.• In the United States, for instance,television encourages the spread ofstandard accents and language patterns.• The globalization of business ishaving a similar impact. Throughoutthe United States and Europe, regionaldifferences, attitudes, incomes,and lifestyles are blurring asbusiness carries people from onearea to another.• Intermarriage also continues tomix cultures geographically, ethnically,socially, and economically.• Minorities are beginning to exertmore influence over national agendas.• The growing number of AfricanAmericans, Hispanics, and Asians inthe United States is mirrored by theexpanding population of refugeesand former “guest workers”throughout Europe.• Britons increasingly supportstaying in the European Union, accordingto a September 2007 surveyby the polling firm Ipsos MORI. InMarch 2001, 39% of those surveyedsaid they would vote to keep theU.K. in the European Union, and42% favored getting out. By 2007,51% supported staying in while 39%wanted out.• However, in many countriesthere are powerful reactions againstthese changes. The growth of theGerman neo-Nazi movement afterunification in 1992 is one obvious example,though public distaste forthese views has tended to keep extremistactivities in check.• American hostility toward undocumentedaliens also may beviewed as a reaction against thegrowing political and cultural influenceof a minority.Assessment and Implications: Theinteraction of diverse cultures willcontinue to grow, both internationallyand intranationally, throughoutmuch of the world.Groups with highly varied customs,languages, and histories of necessitywill develop ways to coexistpeacefully. Nonetheless, local conflictswill continue to erupt in societieswhere xenophobia is common.Companies will hire ever more minorityworkers and will be expectedto adapt to their values and needs.Much of the burden of accommodatingforeign-born residents will continueto fall on employers, who mustmake room for their languages andcultures in the workplace.Public schools and libraries mustfind more effective ways to educatethis future workforce.n 16Tourism, vacationing, andtravel (especially international)will continue to grow in thenext decade and beyond.• International tourism grew bymore than 6% in the first half of 2007,thanks in part to global prosperity.The recession-induced slowdown isonly temporary; travel will recoveras the world economy does. By 2020,international tourist arrivals are expectedto reach 1.6 billion annually,up from 842 million in 2006.• The number of Americans travelingto foreign countries (excludingCanada and Mexico) crashed followingthe September 11 attacks. Morerecently, their numbers have beengrowing by about 5.5% annually,even faster than before 2001.• International arrivals in theUnited States recovered dramaticallyafter the post–9/11 period, to a record58 million in 2008. After a forecastdecline in 2009, thanks to the recession,international tourism to theUnited States is expected to reboundby 3% in 2010 and by 5% annuallythereafter through 2013.• U.S. domestic tourism is growingabout 2.3% each year.• By 2020, according to the WorldTrade Organization, 100 millionChinese will fan out across the globe,replacing Americans, Japanese, andGermans as the world’s most numeroustravelers. Some 50 million Indiantourists will join them. By 2020,China can expect 130 million internationalarrivals.• Online travel services are displacingtraditional travel agencies inall but cruises and other luxury markets.Online leisure, unmanagedbusiness, and managed businesstravel spending will increase from$117 billion in 2009 and reach $158billion by 2013.• Multiple, shorter vacationsspread throughout the year continueto replace the traditional two-weekvacation.Assessment and Implications:Once the recession passes, travel willgrow by at least 5% per year for theforeseeable future.Tourism offers growing opportunitiesfor out-of-the-way destinations10 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

that have not yet cashed in on theboom. This will make it an importantindustry for still more developingcountries.American domestic tourism willcontinue to grow by an average of2.3% per year through at least 2011.The tourism industry will create3.3 million new jobs worldwide overthe next seven years. Jobs dependenton tourism will comprise nearly 14%of the global workforce.This will bring major opportunitiesfor the travel industries of SoutheastAsia and Africa, where Chinese andIndian tourists can take quick, inexpensivevacations.Retirees who travel off-season willfurther ease the cyclical peaks andvalleys typical of the industry.Cruise ships will continue to lureretirees. Some liners are offering fulltimeresidency—creating new optionsfor assisted living arrangements.n 17Education and training are expandingthroughout society.• Rapid changes in the job marketand work-related technologies willrequire increased training for almostevery worker.• Knowledge turnover in the professionsis a growing challenge thatwill require continuous retrainingand lifelong learning. A substantialportion of the labor force will be injob retraining programs at any moment.Much of this will be carriedout by current employers, who havecome to view employee training as agood investment.• Of roughly 240 job categoriesclassified by the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics (BLS) to experiencehigh growth, 86 require a college degree,while 70 more require at leastsome college education. All the restcall for work experience in a relatedfield, on-the-job training (often forlong periods), or a postsecondary vocationaldegree.• We already are seeing a trend towardmore adult education. One reasonis the need to train for new careersas old ones are displaced orboomers grow bored with them. Theother is the need of healthy, energeticpeople to keep active during retirement.• Nearly half of Americans ages 25and older—92 million people—takepart in some form of continuing education.• In the United States, education ismoving rapidly to the Internet, assmall, rural grammar and highschools supplement their curriculawith material from larger institutions,while universities increasinglymarket their programs to distant students.• In order to give those who cannotattend their classes a chance toeducate themselves, the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology, in 2002,put its entire curriculum on the Internet,including class notes, manytexts, and sometimes videos of classroomlectures. Other institutions arefollowing suit.• In Mexico, the entire curriculumfor 10- and 11-year-olds has beendigitized. Some 5 million studentsnow receive all their instruction viathe Enciclomedia, a computer systemthat projects any of 20,000 images,videos, and even commercial movieclips onto an electronic screen. Teachersact largely as managers for theteaching system. The goal is to improveeducational quality, and teachersreport that children pay closer attentionand learn more than intraditional classrooms. Delegationsfrom India, China, and even theUnited States have visited Mexico toevaluate the Enciclomedia for possibleuse at home.• U.S. public schools face an extremeteacher shortage. Some 40% ofteachers say they will leave the professionwithin five years. Americanschools will add 93,000 new teachingpositions between 2004 and 2014, accordingto BLS. However, the needto replace teachers leaving the professionwill mean that 169,000 jobopenings for teachers must be filledeach year.Assessment and Implications:This is another trend at the beginningof its life. Over the next twodecades, it is likely to transformworking lives and educational systemsaround the world.In order to keep up with growingdemands for education, schools willtrain both children and adultsaround the clock.The academic day will stretch toseven hours for children so as to enablestudents to compete with theirpeers in other countries, who alreadydevote much more of their time tolearning, with predictable results.Adults will use much of their remainingfree time to prepare for theirnext job.In knowledge-based economies, aregion’s growth prospects depend onits ability to generate and use innovation.This correlates roughly withthe number of college-educatedadults living there. Throughout theindustrialized countries, this givescities an advantage over rural andsuburban areas. It is one reason upwardlymobile adults tend to moveto the cities.Skills are the most important factorin economic success today. Unfortunately,the people who needskills most—the poor and unemployed—cannotafford schooling.As the digital divide is erased andminority and low-income householdsbuy computers and log ontothe Internet, groups now disadvantagedwill be increasingly able to educateand train themselves for hightechcareers.Even the smallest businesses mustlearn to see employee training as aninvestment rather than an expense.Motorola estimates that it reaps $30in profits for each dollar it spends ontraining.Both management and employeesmust get used to the idea of lifelonglearning. It will become a significantpart of work life at all levels.n 18Advanced communicationstechnologies are changing theway we work and live.• Telecommuting is growing rapidly,thanks largely to texting, socialnetworking, e-mail, and other techenabledforms of communication.About 80% of companies worldwidenow have employees who work athome, up from 54% in 2003. Thenumber of telecommuters in theUnited States reached an estimated20 million in 2006. The total whotelecommuted at least one day permonth reached nearly 35 million by2008, according to BLS.• AT&T says that 90% of its employeesdo some work away fromWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 11

the office, while 41% work at homeone or two days per week. This savesthe company a reported $180 milliona year.• The Census Bureau reports that11 million Americans were workingout of their homes in 2005, the latestdata available.• Millennials already have abandonede-mail for most purposesother than communicating with“clueless” parents and grandparents.Most have adopted instant messagingand social-network Web sites tocommunicate with their peers. Oneolder-generation publisher of our acquaintancewas shocked when a millennialad buyer refused to accept hisphone calls, demanding instead to becontacted by instant messaging.• “Podcasting”—recording collegelectures, news stories, business reports,and the like for playback onthe Apple iPod—allows users to listenat their convenience.• Better communications is a majorgoal of many government agencies,particularly in law enforcementand disaster services, which need tocoordinate the activities of many differentagencies under emergencyconditions.• So-called Web 2.0 services arebuilding communities nearly as complexand involving as those existingwholly in the real world. Second Lifeis a 3-D virtual world entirely builtand owned by its residents.Launched in 2003, it had 16 millionregistered residents by October 2009,who were spending more than 45million hours per month in the artificialworld. By late 2009, MySpaceand Facebook had a total of morethan 425 million members (notcounting overlap) who form communitiesof friends, most of whom havenever met in person. By its thirdbirthday, Twitter had an estimated 8million users, sending an average ofabout 10,000 “tweets” per minute.Assessment and Implications:Again, this trend has only just begun.As the Working From Anywhereassociation notes, “The proliferationof high-speed and wireless Internetaccess … has made it both less expensiveand more productive towork remotely.” Other factors include“rising fuel and commutingcosts and the trend by employers toembrace work–life balance concepts.”E-mail promised to speed business.Instead, it absorbs more timethan busy executives can afford tolose. Expect the nascent reactionagainst e-mail to grow as manypeople eliminate mailing lists, demandprecise e-communicationsrather than open-ended conversation,and schedule only brief periodsfor dealing with mail.Instant messaging is likely to beeven more destructive of time for theunder-30 set. However, e-mail is amajor contributor to globalizationand outsourcing, because it eliminatesmany of the obstacles of doingbusiness across long distances andmany time zones.Unfortunately, e-mail and othermodern communications techniquesalso have made possible a variety ofcrimes, from online fraud to someforms of identity theft.They also make it virtually impossibleto retract ill-considered statementsor embarrassing online activities.Once information exists on theInternet, it is all but immortal andnearly impossible to hide. Many individualshave reported that formerindiscretions make it difficult to obtainor keep jobs years later. Manyothers have reported being fired forstatements or activities reported onlinethat their employers found unacceptable.Generational andFamily Trendsn 19Family structures are becomingmore diverse.• In periods of economic difficulty,children and grandchildren moveback in with parents and grandparentsto save on living expenses.Many bring their own children withthem. In the United States, one-thirdof Gen Xers have returned home atsome point in their early lives.Among millennials, the figure iseven higher.• Among the poor, grandparentsalso provide live-in day care for thechildren of single mothers trying togain an education or build a career.• The average age of marriage isrising, and growing numbers ofpeople either do not marry or remainsingle after divorce. The number ofpeople living together outside marriagethus continues to rise.• Nonetheless, the fastest growing“family” structure consists of a singleadult living alone.• Yet the nuclear family also is reboundingin the United States, asbaby boom and Gen X parents focuson their children and grandparentsretain more independence and mobility.• Same-sex households also aregaining new acceptance. At least fiveAmerican states now permit samesexmarriage or have enacted domestic-partnershiplaws that providesimilar protections: Massachusetts,California, New Jersey, Connecticut,and New Hampshire. In this, theyjoin such countries as Denmark, Germany,the Czech Republic, theUnited Kingdom, and most recentlySwitzerland. Many American companiesnow grant spousal benefits tothe same-sex partners of employees,even where states do not.• Many grandparents are raisingtheir grandchildren, because drugsand AIDS have left the middle generationeither unable or unavailableto care for their children. This trendis strongest in Africa, where AIDShas orphaned some 12 million children,half between the ages of 10 and14. In Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland,and Zimbabwe, more than one infive children will be orphaned byAIDS, according to UNICEF. In theseven African countries most affectedby AIDS, life expectancy atbirth has now dropped below 40years.Assessment and Implications:Where many European countrieshave largely adjusted to this trend,the United States has not.Tax and welfare policies need adjustmentto cope with families inwhich heads of households are retiredor unable to work.Policies also need modification forthose who receive Social Securityand work to support an extendedfamily.In the United States, the debatesover homosexuality and the “declineof the family” will remain polarizing12 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

ates average between 18% and 30%,depending on who does the counting.Inner-city rates are much higherby anyone’s measure, with up to halfof all students leaving high schoolbefore graduation in the worst districts.• In the United States, only aboutone high-school graduate in fourgoes on to receive a college degree.Many of the rest wish to go, and arequalified to do so, but cannot affordthe high cost of further schooling.• Without higher education, expectationsmay never be met. On average,someone with a bachelor’s degreein the United States earned$56,118 in 2007, compared with$32,862 for someone with only a highschool diploma. High-school dropoutsearned just $24,064, while thosewith an advanced degree raked in$75,140.Assessment and Implications:Disappointed ambitions will be amajor source of political unrest in theUnited States and many other countriesin the next two decades. Most ofthe other countries seriously affectedby this trend will be in the developingworld or will be host to largenumbers of disadvantaged immiforthe foreseeable future.The next debate is likely to focuson granting parental rights to morethan two parents, as when a spermor egg donor wants a role in the lifeof a child whose official parents arethe recipients.n 20Young people place increasingimportance on economicsuccess, which they have come toexpect.• Throughout the 1990s—effectively,their entire adult lives—GenXers (no longer exactly young) andthe millennials knew only good economictimes, and the economicdownturn at the turn of the centuryseemed to them a confusing aberrationrather than a predictable part ofthe business cycle. Most expect to seehardship on a national level, but theyboth want and expect prosperity forthemselves.• Gen Xers and the millennials arethe most entrepreneurial generationsin history.• In the United States especially,most young people have high aspirations,but many lack the means toachieve them. High-school dropoutgrants.Entrepreneurialism will be a globaltrend, as members of Generation Xand the millennials throughout theworld tend to share values. Gen Xand millennial entrepreneurs arelargely responsible for the currenteconomic growth in India and China,where they are becoming a majorforce in the Communist party. InIndia, the younger generations dressand think more like their Americancounterparts than their parents. InChina, the democratic fervor thatspawned Tiananmen Square hasbeen replaced by capitalist entrepreneurialism.If younger-generation workersfind their ambitions thwarted, theywill create growing pressure for economicand social reform. If changedoes not come fast enough in the developingworld, disappointed expectationswill raise the number ofyoung people who emigrate to thedeveloped lands.In the United States, pressure willgrow to provide more economic assistanceto qualified high-schoolgraduates who cannot afford to goon to college.Pressure also will grow to makeA-DIGIT / ISTOCKPHOTOWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 13

sure that all American students haveaccess to an education capable ofpreparing them for college or a rewardingcareer.n 21Two-income couples are becomingthe norm in most ofthe industrialized lands, though inthe United States the trend towardgreater employment among womenis slowing.• The percentage of working-agewomen who are employed or are activelylooking for work has grownsteadily throughout the industrializedworld.• In the United States, it has grownfrom 46% in 1970 to about 66%, comparedwith 77% of men.• In Japan, a majority of householdshave included two earnerssince at least 1980.• The lowest fractions are found inItaly and Spain, with just 44% and49% of working-age women employed,respectively, according to theOrganization for Economic Cooperationand Development.• In 2007, about 71% of Americanmothers worked or were activelylooking for work, down from a peakof 80% four years earlier.• The number of working motherswith young children has declined inthe last few years, but the dip is extremelysmall.Assessment and Implications: Inthe industrialized nations, this trendhas just about played out, as thenumber of two-income householdshas begun to stabilize. However, itwill be a growing force in India andother industrializing lands for manyyears to come.This emphasis on work is one bigreason the richest 25% to 50% of theU.S. population has reached zeropopulation growth. They have notime for children and little interest inhaving large families.Demand for on-the-job child care,extended parental leave, and otherfamily-oriented benefits can onlygrow. In the long run, this coulderode the profitability of some U.S.companies, unless it is matched byan equal growth in productivity.Two-career couples can afford toeat out often, take frequent short vacations,and buy new cars and othersuch goods. And they feel they deservewhatever time-savers and outrightluxuries they can afford. This isquickly expanding the market forconsumer goods and services, travel,and leisure activities.This also promotes self-employmentand entrepreneurialism, as onefamily member ’s salary can tidethem over while the other works toestablish a new business.Expect to see many families thatusually have two incomes, but havefrequent intervals in which onemember takes a sabbatical or goesback to school to prepare for anothercareer. As information technologiesrender former occupations obsolete,this will become the new norm.Work and LaborForce Trendsn 22The millennial generation andtheir younger siblings willhave major effects in the future.• There are approximately 50 millionpeople in Europe between theages of 15 and 24; 30 million moreare between 25 and 29. The under-30cohort represents about 22% of theEuropean population.• Members of the millennial generation,now in their 20s, have morein common with their peers elsewherethan with their parents’ generation.Their values and concernsare remarkably uniform throughoutthe world.• The under-20 cohort is remainingin school longer and taking longerto enter the workforce than before.• The millennial generation isproving to be even more businessorientedthan their Gen X predecessors,caring for little but the bottomline. Twice as many say they wouldprefer to own a business rather thanbe a top executive. Five times morewould prefer to own a businessrather than hold a key position inpolitics or government.• Many in Generation X were economicallyconservative even beforethey experienced the 2008–2009 recession.On average, those who cando so begin saving much earlier inlife than their parents did in order toprotect themselves against unexpectedadversity. They made moneyin the stock market boom of the1990s, then lost it in the “dot-bomb”contraction, but have left theirmoney in the market. For GenerationX and the millennials, time is still ontheir side.Assessment and Implications: Invalues, cultural norms, political issues,and many other ways, thischange of generations will be everybit as transforming as the transitionfrom the World War II generation tothe baby boomers.Employers will have to adjust virtuallyall of their policies and practicesto the values of these new anddifferent generations, including findingnew ways to motivate and rewardthem. The millennials thrive onchallenge, opportunity, and training—whateverwill best preparethem for their next career move.Cash is just the beginning of whatthey expect.For these generations, lifelonglearning is nothing new; it’s just theway life is. Companies that can providediverse, cutting-edge trainingwill have a strong recruiting advantageover competitors that offerfewer opportunities to improveworkers’ skills and knowledge base.Millennials are well equipped forwork in a high-tech world, but havelittle interest in their employers’needs. They have a powerful urge todo things their own way.As both customers and employees,they will demand even more advancedtelecommunications and Internet-basedtransactions.n 23Specialization continues tospread throughout industryand the professions.• For doctors, lawyers, engineers,and other professionals, the size ofthe body of knowledge required toexcel in any one area precludes excellenceacross all areas.• The same principle applies to artisans.Witness the rise of post-andbeamhomebuilders, old-house restorers,automobile electronicstechnicians, and mechanics trainedto work on only one brand of car.• Modern information-based orga-14 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

A-DIGIT / ISTOCKPHOTOnizations depend on teams of taskfocusedspecialists.• Globalization of the economycalls for more independent specialists.For hundreds of tasks, corporationsincreasingly turn to consultantsand contractors who specialize moreand more narrowly as markets globalizeand technologies differentiate.Assessment and Implications: Inan information age, each new levelof specialization provides greater efficiencies,reducing the cost of doingbusiness even as it creates new opportunities.This process will continuefor at least another 20 years.This trend creates endless newniche markets to be served by smallbusinesses and individual consultants.It also brings more career choices,as old specialties quickly become obsolete,but new ones appear evenmore rapidly.There will also be a growing needfor “synthesists,” individuals whoare fluent in the languages of manydifferent disciplines and can bridgedepartmental gaps. This skill will bevital for a multidisciplinary approachto problem solving in an increasingly2008, which wiped out savings andretirement accounts of many whoonce expected to retire permanently.• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reportsthat the percentage of men andwomen still working at age 55 andabove has been rising steadily since1993.• In a recent poll, 70% of Americanbaby boomers said they expected tocontinue working into their 70s—notbecause they could not afford to retire,but because they could not standto be both healthy and inactive.• Yet nearly two-thirds doubt thatretirement is possible for anyonewith only a middle-class income.Assessment and Implications:Given the widespread shortage of retirementsavings and investments,most Americans will delay retirementuntil they can no longer work,whether they wish to or not.Since the penalty on earnings ofSocial Security recipients has beenrescinded, more American retireeswill return to work, and those notyet retired will be more likely to remainon the job.This trend will spread to other industrializedcountries as the retirecomplexworld.n 24The traditional age of retirementis losing its significance.• OECD data show that people areretiring earlier in the developedworld. Even before the recession,fewer than 60% of the 54-to-60 agegroup in the OECD countries had ajob. This varied from 50% in the earliest-retiringnations to 76% in thelatest.• According to Pew Research, as of2006 the average American workerplanned to retire at age 61 but actuallydid so at 57.8.• These “retirements” may not bepermanent. Americans in particularoften return to work and delay completeretirement for several years.About one in five people, and 40% ofseniors, say they plan to continueworking until they die.• A study by Putnam Investmentsfound that one-third of Americanswho retire are back on the job twoyears later, usually in the same kindof job they left and at the same levelof responsibility. This number is nowrising, thanks to the stock crash ofWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 15

ment-age population grows and thenumber of active workers to supportthem declines.People increasingly will work atone career, “retire” for a while (perhapsto travel) when they can affordit, return to school, begin another career,and so on in endless variations.True retirement, a permanent end towork, will be delayed until very latein life.By 2015, we expect the average retirementage in the United States tobe delayed well into the 70s. Benefitsmay also continue their decline, andthey will be given based on need,rather than as an entitlement.Even though the Social Securityprogram has been the “third rail” ofAmerican politics, within five years,the retirement age will be movedback at least to 70 for early retirementand to 72 for full benefits.Older workers will partially makeup for shortages of entry-level employees.The chance to remain in theworkplace will reduce the risk ofpoverty for many elderly peoplewho otherwise would have had todepend on Social Security to get by.Retirees will act as technical aidesto teachers, especially in the sciences.In the long run, it may prove impossibleto maintain the tradition ofretirement, except through personalsavings and investment.n 25Second and third careers arebecoming common, as morepeople make mid-life changes in occupation.• Americans born at the tail end ofthe baby boom (1956 to 1964) held anaverage of 10 jobs between ages 18and 38, according to BLS.• These job jumpers continue withshort-duration jobs even as they approachmiddle age: 70% of jobs theytook between ages 33 and 39 endedwithin five years.• Among these late boomers, college-educatedwomen tended to holdthe most jobs overall (11.1) betweenages 18 and 38, but their job switchingoccurred primarily in theiryouth. By their middle 30s, they heldon average just 2.2 jobs between theages of 33 and 38, compared with 2.5jobs on average for all the late boomers,and 2.7 jobs for males with lessthan a bachelor’s degree.• In a 2009 survey, 66% of Americanworkers reported being dissatisfiedwith their pay, 78% were dissatisfiedwith their company’s retentionefforts, and 76% were not satisfiedwith career growth opportunities attheir company.• However, 38% said they were“very satisfied” with their jobs, upfrom 28% in 2007.Assessment and Implications:Based on anecdotal data and personalobservation, Forecasting Internationalestimates that peoplechange careers on average every 10years. Career changing is likely to increaseas new technologies make oldoccupations obsolete even whileopening new ones to replace them.Boomers and their children willhave not just two or three careers,but five or six, as dying industriesare replaced by new opportunities.“Earn while you learn” takes onnew meaning: Most people will haveto study for their next occupation,even as they pursue their current career.In many two-earner couples, onemember or the other will often take asabbatical to prepare for a new career.Self-employment is becoming anincreasingly attractive option, as beingyour own boss makes it easier toset aside time for career development.This is especially true for GenXers and millennials.Growing numbers of retirees willstart their own businesses, both tokeep occupied and to supplementtheir meager savings with new income.This trend has already begun.Retirement plans must be revisedso that workers can transfer medicaland pension benefits from one careerto the next—a change that has longbeen needed. We believe this will occursoon after the baby-boom generationbegins to retire in 2011.n 26The traditional “Protestantwork ethic” is vanishing.• The conventional work ethic derivedfrom the ideas of John Calvin,who ascribed a transcendent value toall work as central to a “good” life.The baby boomers’ parents wereprobably the last generation ofAmericans who broadly acceptedthat notion, which even then hadbeen largely diluted to the slogan,“an honest day’s work for an honestday’s pay.”• Nearly one-third of U.S. workersreported calling in sick when theywere not ill at least once in the past12 months, and 12% admitted doingso in order to avoid something workrelated, such as to miss a meeting,according to a 2009 survey by CareerBuilder.com.• Job security and high pay are notthe motivators they once were, becausesocial mobility is high andpeople seek job fulfillment. Some48% of those responding in a recentLouis Harris poll said they work becauseit “gives a feeling of real accomplishment.”• Fifty-five percent of the top executivesinterviewed in the poll saidthat erosion of the work ethic willhave a major negative effect on corporateperformance in the future.• Ethics at the top are no better.Enron, WorldCom, Tyco International,Adelphia Cable, and ImClonejust begin the list of companies implicatedin deceptive accountingpractices, looting of corporate assets,and other misdeeds. And the numberof American political leaders eitherunder investigation for corruptionor convicted of it grows almostdaily.• Seeking the root of such problems,a Zogby International poll ofcollege seniors found that 97% saidthat their studies had prepared themto act ethically in the future. However,73% said that professors hadtaught them that right and wrong arenot susceptible to uniform standards,but depend on individual values andcultural norms.Assessment and Implications:Both employers and voters must dotheir best to find candidates who canbe trusted, but must expect to fail intheir search. This makes safeguardsagainst wrongdoing, both at workand in public life, more importantthan ever. There is little prospect thatthis will change until the children oftoday’s young adults grow up torebel against their parents’ values.The new generation of workerscannot simply be hired and ignored.They must be nurtured, paid well,16 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

and made to feel appreciated, or theywill quickly look for a friendlier,more rewarding workplace.Training is crucial. Without the opportunityto learn new skills, youngpeople will quickly find a job thatcan help them prepare for the rest oftheir career.Energy Trendsn 27Despite efforts to developalternative sources of energy,oil consumption is still rising rapidly.• The world used only 57 millionbarrels of oil per day in 1973, whenthe first major price shock hit. By2008, it was using 86 million barrelsdaily, according to the U.S. EnergyInformation Administration (EIA).This was slightly more than it producedthat year.• The United States alone consumedabout 19.5 million barrels ofoil per day in 2008 (22.8% of worldtotal), down from 20.7 million in2004 (25.1% of world total). U.S. petroleumconsumption is projected toincrease to 22 million barrels per dayby 2035.• In 2008, China consumed 7.8 millionbarrels of oil per day, making itthe second-largest user of oil in theworld. Its oil demand has grown by7% per year, on average, since 1990.Most of China’s imported oil (morethan 3.1 million barrels a day) comesfrom the Middle East.• However, oil’s share of worldenergy consumption has begun todecline: It is expected to drop from40% in 1999 to about 37% in 2020.Assessment and Implications:Consumption is expected to reach 97million barrels daily by 2015 and 118million by 2030. These projectionsseem likely to prove reasonably accurate.Oil prices now are high enough toprovide an incentive to develop newfields, such as the Arctic NationalWildlife Refuge and the deep fieldsunder the Gulf of Mexico.Environmentally sensitive areaswill be developed using new drillingtechniques, double-walled pipelines,and other precautions that make itpossible to extract oil with less damageto the surroundings. But theybeneath the Indian Ocean.• OPEC officials claim that the 11member countries can provide forthe world’s energy needs for roughlythe next 80 years. OPEC suppliesabout 40% of the world’s oil andholds 60% of the known oil availableinternationally. Even 80% of OPEC’sestimated supply would still be oilenough to supply the world for thenext 64 years.Assessment and Implications:Talk of “peak oil,” the suggestionthat crude production has toppedout or soon will, is unjustified and,in FI’s view, unjustifiable.Higher oil prices should make itcost effective to develop new methodsof recovering oil from old wells.Technologies already developedcould add nearly 50% to the world’srecoverable oil supply.OPEC will continue to supplymost of the oil used by the developedworld. According to the U.S.Department of Energy, OPEC oil productionwill grow to about 57 millionbarrels of oil per day by 2020.Russia and Kazakhstan will be majorsuppliers if the necessary pipelinescan be completed and politicaluncertainties do not block investmentby Western oil companies. Ruswillbe developed.Any prolonged rise of oil prices totriple digits will erode support for environmentalprotections in the UnitedStates, leading to widespread developmentof whatever energy sourcesare most readily available regardlessof the long-term consequences.n 28of oil.Contrary to popular belief, theworld is not about to run out• As a result of intensive exploration,the world’s proven oil reservesclimbed steadily since the 1980s andhovered around 1.3 trillion barrels in2007, the most recent figure currentlyavailable.• Recent discoveries of major oilfields in Canada, Brazil, and underthe Gulf of Mexico have substantiallyincreased the world’s known oil reserves.Exploitation of oil in Venezuelahas barely begun. Reserves theremay be even larger than those inSaudi Arabia, according to some estimates.However, it is more expensiveto refine and use, because it containsmuch higher levels of sulfur than theMiddle Eastern oil currently in production.India also is believed to ownsubstantial reserves of oil in depositsJULIEN GRONDIN / ISTOCKPHOTOWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 17

sia has been the world’s second-largestoil producer since 2008.Alternative energy sources faceproblems with economic viability.Barring substantial incentives, thiswill inhibit efforts to stem globalwarming for the foreseeable future.A generalized war in the MiddleEast after the United States leavesIraq could drastically reduce the region’soil output. This is unlikely, butthe impact of such a conflict wouldbe too large to ignore the possibility.The spread of fundamentalist Islamicregimes with a grudge againstthe West also could keep OPEC oilout of the American market.If the United States loses access toMiddle Eastern oil, it will buy evenmore from Canada and Venezuelaand tap the Arctic National WildlifeReserve much faster than expected.In a prolonged energy emergency,America also would be likely to developits vast reserves of oil shale,which have long been economicallyviable at crude prices over $40 perbarrel. New technology reportedlymakes it profitable at any price over$17 per barrel. With enough shale oilto supply its own needs for 300years, the United States could becomeone of the world’s largest petroleumexporters.Developing shale would devastatethe environment, but with crude oilprices in triple digits during a MiddleEastern war, the environmentwill be considered expendable.n 29When not perturbed by politicalor economic instability, oilprices will average around $65 perbarrel.• The International Energy Agency’sWorld Energy Outlook 2007 concurs.• Prices approaching $100 per barrelin the fall of 2007 were an aberrationcaused by a global shortage ofrefinery capacity and by fears of instabilitytriggered by the Iraq war.New energy demand from the fastgrowingeconomies of China andIndia has raised the floor that until2004 supported oil in the $25 per barrelrange. The “risk premium” builtinto the price of oil is estimated at$10 to $15 per barrel.• Yet in the long run other factorswill tend to depress the price of oilthe nation’s electricity will be nuclear.In early 2004, China had onlynine operating nuclear power plants.It plans to build 30 more by 2020,bringing nuclear energy consumptionfrom 16 billion kWh in 2000 to142 billion kWh. By 2020, Canadawill use 118 billion kWh. Even theUnited States is weighing the constructionof new reactors.• Renewable sources accountedfor about 14% of the world’s energyin 2005. However, more than half ofthe world’s renewable energy camefrom hydroelectric dams. Hydroelectricpower generation has been decliningsince its peak of 727.62 billionkWh in 1996.• Worldwide wind-power generatingcapacity grew by 30% annuallyin the decade ending in 2005, to a totalof 59,000 MW, according to theEarth Policy Institute and the WorldwatchInstitute. This is a 12-fold increasein 10 years.• Photovoltaic solar energy productionhas been growing at a steady25% per year since 1980. Commercialsolar cells are now cheap enough tocompete with other power sources,especially in sunny regions.• Natural gas burns cleanly, andthere is enough of it available to supplythe world’s total energy demandfor at least the next 200 years. Consumptionof natural gas is growingby 3.3% annually, compared with1.8% for oil. Proven natural gas reservesstood at about 237 trillion cubicfeet in 2009, about 1% more thana year earlier, but the total gas availableis believed to be more than 2,000trillion cubic feet. The United Stateshas been described as “the SaudiArabia of natural gas.” Its shale gasaccounts for an estimated 35% of theworld’s total natural gas supply.New technologies have made it economicallypractical to develop thissupply.• Although most of the world’sscientists gave up on cold fusionlong ago, the U.S. Navy has continuedwork on the process. Its researchershave announced developmentof a reproducible cold fusionsystem that consistently releasesmore energy than it consumes.• According to the DOE’s EnergyInformation Agency, shifting 20% ofAmerica’s energy supply to renewtowardits former levels. New refineriesin Saudi Arabia and other countriesscheduled to come on line by2012 will ease the tight supply–demandbalance for oil. New oil suppliesare being found or developedin many parts of the world. The 20most-industrialized countries allhave at least three-month supplies ofoil in tankers and underground storage.Most have another threemonths’ worth in “strategic reserves.”In times of high oil prices,customer nations can afford to stopbuying until the costs come down.And OPEC has stated that it prefersto see the price of oil in the neighborhoodof $45 per barrel.Assessment and Implications:Barring an American invasion of Iran,any excursions beyond $100 per barrelwill be extremely brief. Given continuedconcerns about instability inthe Middle East, oil prices will slowlydecline to $60 or so per barrel.In response to high (by Americanstandards) gas prices, the U.S. governmentprobably will boost domesticoil production and refining to increasethe reserve of gasoline andheating oil. This stockpile would beready for immediate use in case offuture price hikes. This will make iteasier to negotiate with OPEC.A key step in controlling oil prices,and an indicator of Washington’s seriousnessabout doing so, would bedevelopment of at least four new refineriesaround the country by thegovernment, probably for lease tocommercial producers. We rate theodds at no more than 50:50.The United States almost certainlywill drill for oil in the Arctic NationalWildlife Reserve, though efforts willbe made to minimize environmentaldamage, such as drilling will takeplace only in the winter, when thetundra is rock hard.n 30Growing competition fromother energy sources also willhelp to limit the price of oil.• Nuclear power is growing rapidly.Nuclear plants supply about15% of Russian electricity. By 2020,Russia will consume 129 billion kWhof nuclear energy per year. Plans callfor construction of 26 more nuclearplants by 2030, when 25% or more of18 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

air pollution is an even bigger problem.Indoor smoke from burningfuels such as dung and wood—which more than half the world’spopulation relies on for cooking andother basic energy needs—createsparticulates that penetrate deeplyinto the lungs. An estimated 1.6 millionpeople a year die from indoorair pollution, according to the WHO.• Contaminated water is implicatedin 80% of the world’s healthproblems, according to WHO. An estimated40,000 people around theworld die each day of diseases directlycaused by contaminated water,more than 14 million per year. InIndia, an estimated 300 millionpeople lack access to safe drinkingwater, due to widespread pollutionof rivers and groundwater. The EuropeanParliament estimates that70% of the Continent’s drinking watercontains dangerous concentrationsof nitrate pollution. In theUnited States, there is growing conableresources by 2020 would havealmost no impact on the total cost ofpower. At present, less than 5% ofthe energy used in the United Statescomes from renewable resources.Assessment and Implications:Though oil will remain the world’smost important energy resource foryears to come, two or three decadesforward it should be less of a chokepoint in the global economy.Solar, geothermal, wind, and waveenergy will ease power problemswhere these resources are most readilyavailable, though they will supplyonly a very small fraction of theworld’s energy in the foreseeablefuture.Declining reliance on oil eventuallycould help to reduce air and waterpollution, at least in the developedworld. By 2060, a costly butpollution-free hydrogen economymay at last become practical.Fusion power remains a distanthope.Cold fusion also remains a longshot for practical power, but FI believesit can no longer be discounted.Reported confirmations of the phenomenon,including the one by theU.S. Navy, seem highly credible. Ifthey prove to be correct, powerplants based on the process could beginto come on line by 2030.Environmental andResource Trendsn 31People around the world arebecoming increasingly sensitiveto environmental issues as theconsequences of neglect, indifference,and ignorance become evermore apparent.• The World Health Organizationestimates that 3 million people dieeach year from the effects of air pollution.In the United States, an estimated64,000 people a year die ofcardiopulmonary disease caused bybreathing particulates. In sub-Saharan Africa, the toll is between300,000 and 500,000 deaths per year.Pollution-related respiratory diseaseskill about 1.4 million people yearlyin China and Southeast Asia.• In developing countries, indoorDIANE LABOMBARDE / ISTOCKPHOTOcern that pollutants such as perchlorate,the gasoline additive MTBE,and even the chlorine used to killwaterborne pathogens may representsignificant health concerns.• Though some debate remainsabout the cause, the fact of globalwarming has become undeniable. AtPalmer Station on Anvers Island,Antarctica, the average annual temperaturehas risen by 3°C to 4°Csince the 1940s, and by an amazing7°C to 9°C in June—early winter inthat hemisphere.• Pew Research Center reports thatits 2007 Global Attitudes Project surveyof 46 countries found much moreconcern for the environment than inthe 2002 survey. In the United States,the number citing environmentalproblems as the top global threatrose from 23% to 37%. In India, thenumber went from 32% to 49%. Inboth Japan and China, 70% of respondentssaid environmental problemswere the greatest global threatWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 19

to the world.• Many governments are takingmore-active measures to protect theenvironment. For instance, afteryears of ineffective gestures, CostaRica has incorporated about 25% ofits land into protected areas, such asnational parks. In an effort to promotecleaner energy technologiesand to slow global warming, mostEuropean nations now tax carbonemissions or fossil fuels. Anticipatinga three-foot rise in sea levels, theNetherlands is spending $1 billion tobuild new dikes.Assessment and Implications: Asolid majority of voters throughoutthe developed world now recognizethe need to clean up the environment,and especially to controlgreenhouse warming. Throughoutmost of the world, polluters and privatebeneficiaries of public assetswill increasingly confront restrictiveregulations designed to serve the interestsof the community at large.Carbon dioxide will remain aproblem for many years to come. Ifair pollution were halted instantly, itwould take an estimated 200 yearsfor CO 2and other greenhouse gasesto return to preindustrial levels.Impurities in water will become aneven greater problem as the populationof the developed countries agesand becomes more susceptible to infectiousdiseases.Recent analyses say there is a 90%chance that the planet’s average annualtemperature will rise between3°C and 9°C over the next century.This will cause severe dislocationsboth for plant and animal populationsand for many human activities.Environmental policies will provokea political backlash whereverthey conflict with entrenched interests,as they have long done in theAmerican West.n 32Industrial development stilltrumps environmental concernsin many parts of the world.• The Pew study cited abovefound that less than one-fourth of respondentsin any African countryrated environmental problems as theworld’s most important threat. InEthiopia, where desertification is atits worst and drought is a constanthome to perhaps half a billionpeople, already is short of water. Thewater table under Beijing has fallen200 feet since 1965. Australia’s Murray-Darlingriver system, which supplieswater for 40% of the country’scrops and 80% of its irrigation, nolonger carries enough water to reachthe sea without constant dredging.Salinity in the Murray is rising soquickly that the water is expected tobe undrinkable in 20 years.• There is worse to come. Accordingto UN studies, at least 3.5 billionpeople will run short of water by2040, almost 10 times as many as in1995. By 2050, fully two-thirds of theworld’s population could be livingin regions with chronic, widespreadshortages of water. One-third of thepopulation of Africa and most of themajor cities in the developing worldwill face water shortages, accordingto the United Nations. Many climatologistsbelieve that global warmingwill make drought in the UnitedStates much more frequent—eventhe norm—west of the MississippiRiver.• Water usage is causing otherproblems as well. For example, irrigationwater evaporates, leavingminerals in the soil. By 2020, 30% ofthe world’s arable land will be salty;by 2050, 50%. Salinization already iscutting crop yields in India, Pakistan,Egypt, Mexico, Australia, and partsof the United States.• An estimated 38% of the world’sland is threatened with desertification,owing mostly to overgrazing,overcultivation, and deforestation.Northern Africa, the Middle East,southwest China, and the westernedge of South America are at thegreatest risk.Assessment and Implications:Providing adequate supplies of potablewater will be a growing challengefor developing and developedcountries alike.Such problems as periodic famineand desertification can be expectedto grow more frequent and severe incoming decades.In many lands, including parts ofthe United States, growing watershortages may inhibit economicgrowth and force large-scale migrationout of afflicted areas.Climate change is expected to rethreat,only 7% did so.• Beijing has made repairing theenvironment a national priority. Yet70% of the energy used in Chinacomes from coal-burning powerplants, few of them equipped withpollution controls. The country intendsto build more than 500 additionalcoal-fired plants in the next 10years. Scientists estimate that by 2025China will emit more carbon dioxideand sulfur dioxide than the UnitedStates, Japan, and Canada combined.Assessment and Implications:Broad regions of the planet will besubject to pollution, deforestation,and other environmental ills in thecoming decades.Acid rain like that afflicting theUnited States and Canada will appearwherever designers of newpower plants and factories neglectemission controls.India is covered by a haze of sulfatesand other chemicals associatedwith acid rain. Look for this problemto appear in most other industrializingcountries.Diseases related to air and waterpollution will spread dramatically inthe years ahead. Already, chronic obstructivepulmonary disease is fivetimes more common in China thanin the United States. As citizens ofthe developing countries grow to expectmodern health care, this willcreate a growing burden on theireconomies.This is just a taste of future problems,and perhaps not the mosttroublesome. Even the U.S. governmentnow admits that global warmingis a result of human activitiesthat produce greenhouse gases. Itnow seems that China and Indiasoon will produce even more of themthan the major industrialized nations.Helping the developing landsto raise their standards of livingwithout creating wholesale pollutionwill require much more aid and diplomacythan the developed worldhas ever been willing to give thiscause.n 33world.Water shortages are a growingproblem for much of the• In many regions, they are severealready. The northern half of China,20 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

duce the flow of Australia’s parchedMurray River by a further 5% in 20years and 15% in 50 years.Countries dependent on hydropowerface growing shortages ofelectricity. Most are relatively poorlands in Africa and Asia, which willfind economic development evenmore challenging. Venezuela has alreadyrationed electricity, owing tolow reservoir levels behind the Guridam, which produces 70% of thecountry’s electric power.Water wars, predicted for morethan a decade, are a threat in placeslike the Kashmir: Much of Pakistan’swater comes from areas of Kashmirnow controlled by India.Other present and future waterconflicts involve Turkey, Syria, andIraq over the Tigris and Euphrates;Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Palestineover water from the Jordan Riverand the aquifers under the GolanHeights; India and Bangladesh, overthe Ganges and Brahmaputra; China,Indochina, and Thailand, over theMekong; Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, andUzbekistan over the Oxus and Jaxartesrivers; and Ethiopia, Sudan,and at least six East African countries,including Egypt, which sharethe Nile.In the United States, repair of decayedwater systems is likely to be amajor priority for older cities such asNew York, Boston, and Atlanta. Costestimates for necessary replacementand repair of water mains range upto $1 trillion.n 34Recycling has delayed the“garbage glut” that threatenedto overflow the world’s landfills, butthe threat has not passed simply becauseit has not yet arrived.• Americans now produce about4.5 pounds of trash per person perday, twice as much as they threwaway a generation ago. In 2005, theysent about 245 million tons of “municipalsolid waste” to landfills. Seventypercent of U.S. landfills will befull by 2025, according to the EPA.• Japan expects to run out of spacefor municipal solid waste by 2015.• In London and the surroundingregion, landfills will run out of roomby 2012.• In some other regions, simplycollecting the trash is a problem. Brazilproduces an estimated 240,000tons of garbage daily, but only 70%reaches landfills. The rest, 72,000tons per day, accumulates in citystreets, where it helps to spread disease.• Recycling has proved to be an effectivealternative to dumping. Some37% of London’s municipal waste isrecycled, with a target of 45% by2020. Seattle, with one of the most effectiverecycling programs in theUnited States, recycles about half ofits solid waste. As of 2005, Germanyrecycled 60% of its municipal solidwaste, 65% of manufacturing waste,80% of packaging, and 87% of constructionwaste, according to theFederal Ministry for Environment,Nature Conservation and NuclearSafety. Largely as a result, the numberof landfills for domestic wastehas been reduced from about 50,000in the 1970s to just 160.Assessment and Implications: Recyclingand waste-to-energy plantsare a viable alternative to simplydumping garbage.Expect a wave of new regulations,recycling, waste-to-energy projects,and waste management programs inthe United States and other countriesin an effort to stem the tide of trash.In the United States it will of coursebegin in California, a jurisdiction oftencited by policy forecasters as abellwether of change.State and local governments willtighten existing regulations and raisedisposal prices in Pennsylvania,South Carolina, Louisiana, and otherplaces that accept much of the trashfrom major garbage producers suchas New York.Trash producers in the developedworld will ship much more of theirdebris to repositories in developingcountries. This will inspire protestsin the receiving lands.Beyond 2025 or so, the developingcountries will close their repositoriesto foreign waste, forcing producersto develop more waste-to-energyand recycling technologies. Ultimately,it may even be necessary toexhume buried trash for recycling tomake more room in closed dumpsites for material that cannot be reused.Waste-to-energy programs willmake only a small contribution tothe world’s growing need for power.n 35Species extinction and loss ofbiodiversity will be a growingworry for decades to come.• An estimated 50,000 species disappeareach year, up to 1,000 timesthe natural rate of extinction, accordingto the United Nations EnvironmentalProgram. By 2100, as many ashalf of all species could disappear.Twelve percent of birds, 21% ofmammals, 30% of known amphibians,and 32% of all conifers and cycadsare estimated to be nearing extinction.Some 17,291 species are nowlisted as threatened, according to the2009 Red List of the InternationalUnion for Conservation of Natureand Natural Resources. The real listis likely much larger, as the grouphas evaluated only 47,677 of the 1.5million species on its list. Amphibianpopulations are in decline throughoutthe world, for reasons that remainpoorly understood.• Coral reefs throughout the worldare dying rapidly. Caribbean reefshave lost 80% of their coral cover inthe past three decades. In Indonesia,home to one-eighth of the world’scoral reefs, more than 70% of thereefs are dead or dying. Most scientistsbelieve that climate change islargely responsible for killing coral.Other suspected culprits are overfishingand pollution.• Just 25 so-called “hot spots” covering11% of the world’s surface havelost 70% of their original vegetation.These hot spots are home to 1.2 billionpeople, or one-fifth of theworld’s population.• What is left in its natural state,about 2% of the planet’s surface, ishome to 44% of all plant species and35% of all vertebrates other than fish.• The chief cause for species loss isthe destruction of natural habitats bylogging, agriculture, and urbanization.Some 30 million acres of rainforest are destroyed each year. Morethan half the world’s rain forests arealready gone. At current rates, therest could disappear in the next 40years.• Though commercial fishing isnot known to have exterminated anyspecies—largely because the last fewWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 21

members of a species are too costlyto catch—it is turning out to be onemore important cause of species depletion.Stocks of cod, tuna, swordfish,marlin, and sharks are down90% since modern industrializedfishing began 40 years ago.Assessment and Implications:Saving any significant fraction of theworld’s endangered species will requiremuch more effort and expensethan many governments find acceptable.For species such as corals,whose loss is attributable largely toclimate change, it may not be possible.Species loss has a powerful negativeimpact on human well-being.Half of all drugs used in medicineare derived from natural sources, including55 of the top 100 drugs prescribedin the United States. About40% of all pharmaceuticals are derivedfrom the sap of vascular plants.So far, only 2% of the 300,000 knownsap-containing plants have been assayedfor useful drugs. Most of thespecies lost in the years ahead willdisappear before they can be tested.The Indonesian economy loses anestimated $500,000 to $800,000 annuallyper square mile of dead or damagedreef.Australia may lose even more asdegradation of the Great Barrier Reefcontinues. The UN IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change predictsthat the reef will be “functionally extinct”by 2030.Diverse ecosystems absorb morecarbon dioxide than those with fewerspecies. Loss of biodiversity thus is apotential cause of global warming.n 36Urbanization, arguably theworld’s oldest trend, continuesrapidly.• Forty-eight percent of theworld’s population currently lives incities, according to the PopulationReference Bureau’s World PopulationData Sheet. By 2030, that willfigure grow to 60%, as some 2.1 billionpeople are added to the world’scities. More than three-fourths of thepopulation in developed countrieslive in cities. In North America, urbanizationis the highest, at 79%. Butcities are growing fastest in the developingworld.• The big are getting bigger. In1950, there were just eight megacities,with populations exceeding 5million, in the world. By 2015, therewill be 59 megacities, 48 of them inless developed countries. Of these,23 will have populations over 10 million,all but four in the developinglands.• Natural increase now accountsfor more than half of population increasein the cities; at most, littlemore than one-third of urban growthresults from migration.• Up to 1 billion city dwellers lackadequate shelter, clean water, toilets,or electricity. The United Nations estimatesthat these problems cause 10million needless deaths annually.• Urbanization has significant environmentalconsequences: Fuelsburned in cities account for 75% ofglobal carbon emissions from humanactivity, according to the WorldwatchInstitute. NASA scientists point outthat urbanization also tends to putbuildings and blacktop on the mostfertile land, eliminating significantquantities of carbon-absorbingplants. Urbanization also deprivessurrounding areas of water: Insteadof sinking into the ground, rain iscollected, piped to the city, used,treated as gray water, and then discardedinto the ocean. In some regions,such as near Atlanta, waterlevels in local aquifers are decliningrapidly because the water that oncereplenished them now is lost.• The United States is the one majorexception to the global urbanizationtrend. This automobile-reliantsociety built one of the best highwaysystems in the world and has relativelylittle mass transit, so moreAmericans live in the suburbs thanin the cities.Assessment and Implications:Continuing urbanization will aggravatemost environmental and socialproblems. Cities’ contribution toglobal warming can only increase inthe years ahead.As the world’s supply of potablewater declines, people are concentratingin those areas where it ishardest to obtain and is used least efficiently.This trend will aggravatewater problems for so long as it continues.Many more people will die due toshortages of shelter, water, and sanitation.Epidemics will become stillmore common as overcrowdingspreads HIV and other communicablediseases more rapidly.Since urban growth is now duemore to natural increase than to migration,programs designed to encouragerural populations to remainin the countryside may be misplaced.Education and family planning seemmore likely to rein in the growth ofcities.Technology Trendsn 37Technology increasinglydominates both the economyand society.• New technologies are surpassingthe previous state of the art in allfields, and technological obsolescenceis accelerating.• For most users, computers havebecome part of the environment,rather than just tools used for specifictasks. With wireless modems,portable computers give us access tonetworked data wherever we go. Internet-equippedcell phones are evenmore convenient for access to e-mailand Web sites.• Robots are taking over more andmore jobs that are routine, remote, orrisky, such as repairing underseacables and nuclear power stations.Flexible, general-service personal robotswill appear in the home by 2015,expanding on the capabilities of devicessuch as robotic vacuum cleanersand lawn mowers.• By 2015, artificial intelligence,data mining, and virtual reality willhelp most companies and governmentagencies to assimilate data andsolve problems beyond the range oftoday’s computers. AI applicationsinclude robotics, machine vision,voice recognition, speech synthesis,electronic data processing, healthand human services, administration,and airline pilot assistance.• Superconductors operating at economicallyviable temperatures willbe in commercial use soon after 2015.Assessment and Implications:Technologically related changes insociety and business seen over thelast 20 years are just the beginning of22 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

LOBOCO / ISTOCKPHOTOof Sciences warns. “Although manypeople assume that the United Stateswill always be a world leader in scienceand technology, this may notcontinue to be the case inasmuch asgreat minds and ideas exist throughoutthe world. We fear the abruptnesswith which a lead in science andtechnology can be lost—and the difficultyof recovering a lead once lost,if indeed it can be regained at all.”• According to the National ScienceBoard, R&D spending grows by6% per year in the United States, onaverage. China spends 20% more onR&D each year.• China is now second to theUnited States in the number ofresearch articles its scientists publisheach year and gaining rapidly.• In patents earned each year,Americans are now in sixth placeand falling.• Military research now absorbsmuch of the money that once supportedbasic science. Since 2000, U.S.federal spending on defense researchhas risen an average of 7.4% per year,compared with only 4.5% for civilianresearch. The Defense AdvancedResearch Projects Agency has beenlegendary for its support of “bluesky” research that led to dramatictechnical advances, including thecreation of the Internet. Today it focusesincreasingly on immediate militaryneeds and low-risk developmentefforts.• More than half of American scientistsand engineers are nearing reatrend that will accelerate at leastthrough this century.New technologies should continueto improve the efficiency of many industries,helping to keep costs undercontrol.However, this increased productivityhas retarded U.S. job creationsince at least 2002. Other developedcountries are likely to feel the sameeffect in the future.Technology made internationaloutsourcing possible. It will continueto promote outsourcing, to the benefitof the recipient countries, butcausing painful job losses in the donorlands.New technologies often require ahigher level of education and trainingto use them effectively. They alsoprovide many new opportunities tocreate businesses and jobs.Automation will continue to cutthe cost of many services and products,making it possible to reduceprices while still improving profits.This will be critical to business survivalas the Internet continues topush the price of many products tothe commodity level.n 38The United States is losing itsscientific and technical leadershipto other countries.• “The scientific and technicalbuilding blocks of our economicleadership are eroding at a timewhen many other nations are gatheringstrength,” the National Academytirement. At the rate American studentsare entering these fields, theretirees cannot be replaced except byrecruiting foreign scientists. Accordingto the National Academy of Engineering,the United States producesonly about 7% of the world’sengineers. Only 6% of American undergraduatesare engineering majors,compared with 12% in Europe and40% in China. Of the doctoral degreesin science awarded by Americanuniversities, about 30% go to foreignstudents. In engineering, it is60%.• By inhibiting stem-cell research,cloning, and other specialties theUnited States has made itself less attractiveto cutting-edge biomedicalscientists. The United Kingdom iscapitalizing on this to become theworld’s leader in stem-cell research.In the process, it is reversing thebrain drain that once brought topBritish scientists to the United States.More than 70 leading American biomedicalresearchers have moved tothe U.K. along with many less notedcolleagues. Latin America also hasbeen receiving scientific émigrésfrom the United States.• About 25% of America’s scienceand engineering workforce are immigrants,including nearly half ofthose with doctoral degrees. Duringthe 15 years ending in 2007, onethirdof the American scientists receivingNobel Prizes were foreignborn.• According to Purdue UniversityWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 23

President Martin Jischke, more than90% of all scientists and engineers inthe world live in Asia.Assessment and Implications: Ifthis trend is not reversed, it will beginto undermine the U.S. economyand shift both economic and politicalpower to other lands. According tosome estimates, about half of the improvementin the American standardof living is directly attributable toresearch and development carriedout by scientists and engineers.Demand to import foreign scientistsand engineers on H-1b visasalso will continue to grow. Publicityabout the H-1b program, and aboutthe offshoring of R&D to companydivisions and consulting labs in Asia,in turn will discourage Americanstudents from entering technicalfields. This has already been blamedfor shrinking student rolls in computerscience.In 2005, China for the first time exportedmore IT and communicationsgoods ($180 million) than the UnitedStates ($145 million.) Its lead hasgrown each year since then.n 39rapidly.Transportation technologyand practice are improving• The newest generation of aircraft,such as the Boeing 787 andfuture Airbus A350 XWB, are usinglightweight materials and more efficientengines to cut fuel costs, stretchranges, and increase cargo capacity.• The airline industry is developingtechnical advances such as improvedsatellite navigation and communications,runway collisionavoidance systems, and safer seatdesigns. These advances will allowplanes to fly closer together, increasingthe carrying capacity of airroutes.• Rail travel is getting faster. TheTGV Est line, which runs 300 km(180 miles) from Paris to Frankfurt,operates at 320 kph (198.8 mph) insideFrance, compared with 300 kphon other parts of the TGV system.• Advances in automobile technologysuch as road-condition sensors,continuously variable transmissions,automated traffic management systems,night-vision systems, andsmart seats that tailor airbag infla-tion to the passenger’s weight arereaching the marketplace.• European researchers are experimentingwith “auto trains” in whicha long line of cars automatically trailsafter a leader. This allows tighter,more efficient spacing of vehicles,and fewer delays.• The United States has finallycommitted to funding its first relativelyhigh-speed rail line, betweenTampa and Orlando, Florida.Assessment and Implications:These advances will make travelfaster, cheaper, and safer, by land,sea, and air.One of the fastest-growing transportindustries is trucking, thanks tothe expanded use of just-in-time inventorymanagement and Internetbasedcompanies that rely on trucksto deliver their products. This fieldwill grow more efficient as GPSbasedtruck tracking, RFID-basedcargo management, more efficientengines, and other new technologiesspread through the industry.To reduce the number and severityof traffic accidents, trucks on themost heavily used highways will beexiled to car-free lanes, and the separationwill be enforced.New hybrid car models will beginto gain significant market share fromtraditional gas guzzlers between2010 and 2015.Following European practice, even“legacy” air carriers in the UnitedStates will begin to replace thespokes of their existing hub-andspokessystem with high-speedtrains for journeys of 100 to 150miles.By 2015, improved technologiesand concerns about the long-termcost of energy will lead even the railresistantUnited States to begin modernizingits train system.New aircraft navigation and safetytechnologies will reduce the numberand severity of crashes.In Europe, smart-car technologieswill begin to reduce deaths due toauto accidents in 2010, and, in theUnited States, a few years later.Cities increasingly will struggle toreduce auto congestion by limitingthe use of private automobiles, as inMunich, Vienna, and Mexico City; bytaxing auto use in congested areas, asin London; or by encouraging the de-velopment and use of mass transit, asin Copenhagen and Curitiba, Brazil.Technology may offer other alternatives.One proposal is “dual-modetransportation,” in which privatecars would be used normally onshort hauls but would run on automatedguideways for long-distancetravel.n 40The pace of technologicalchange accelerates with eachnew generation of discoveries andapplications.• In fast-moving engineering disciplines,half of the cutting-edgeknowledge learned by college studentsin their freshman year is obsoleteby the time they graduate.• The design and marketing cycle—idea,invention, innovation, imitation—isshrinking steadily. As lateas the 1940s, the product cyclestretched to 30 or 40 years. Today, itseldom lasts 30 or 40 weeks. Almostany new consumer product can beexactly duplicated by Chinese factoriesand sold on eBay within a weekafter it is introduced.• Eighty percent of the scientists,engineers, technicians, and physicianswho ever lived are alive today—andexchanging ideas real timeon the Internet.Assessment and Implications:Subjectively, change soon will moveso rapidly that we can no longer recognizeits acceleration, save as an abstractconcept.All the technical knowledge wework with today will represent only1% of the knowledge that will beavailable in 2050.Industries will face much tightercompetition based on new technologies.Those who adopt state-of-theartmethods first will prosper. Thosewho ignore them eventually will fail.Products must capture their marketquickly, before the competition cancopy them. Brand names associatedwith quality are becoming even moreimportant in this highly competitiveenvironment.Lifelong learning is a necessity foranyone who works in a technicalfield—and for growing numberswho do not.In what passes for the long run—ageneration or two—the development24 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

ivatives and have fewer side effects.Nearly 400 anticancer compoundsare being tested in people, almost allof them “designer drugs.” In 1995,only 10 anticancer drugs were beingtested, all either natural products orderivatives of existing drugs.• Other transplanted tissues comefrom cloning and related technologiesused to grow stem cells. Radicalnew treatments for diabetes, Parkinson’sdisease, perhaps Alzheimer’s,and many other disorders are expectedto arrive within the next fiveto 10 years.• Brown fat, found in many animalsand in human babies, is convertedalmost immediately to bodyheat; it does not cause obesity. Whitefat goes straight to the waist andother bulging body parts. Scientistsat Boston’s Dana-Farber Cancer Institutehave found the gene controllingbrown fat production, perhapsopening the way to end the epidemicof obesity.• Surgeons working via the Internetcan now operate on patients inremote areas, using experimental robotmanipulators to handle their instruments.• Nanotechnology research is beginningto produce medically usefulproducts, such as nanoparticles thatcan carry medication into the cell.Much more complicated devices forboth diagnosis and treatment are inthe concept stage.• Scientists are beginning to understandthe fundamental processesof aging, bringing the possibility ofaverting the diseases of old age, andperhaps aging itself.Assessment and Implications:Biomedicine will be to the twentyfirstcentury what computers were tothe twentieth, a force that transformsour lives beyond anything our parentscould have conceived. By 2020,medicine will finally understand andbe able to control such mysteries asour need for sleep, the canceroustransformation of cells and thespread of tumors to remote parts ofthe body, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’sdiseases, and some forms ofmental illness. It also will producedrugs to improve memory and concentrationand extend our lives toage 110 or more with mid-life healthand vigor. What it will offer even faroftrue artificial intelligence is likelyto reduce human beings to managers.Rather than making new discoveriesand creating new products, wewill struggle to understand andguide the flow of novelties deliveredby creations we cannot really keepup with.n 41daily.Important medical advanceswill continue to appear almost• Genetic research has acceleratedadvances in medicine and in thegrowth of medical knowledge. Earlyresults include possible cures forhemophilia, cystic fibrosis, familialhypercholesterolemia, a number ofcancers, and AIDS. Eventually, some4,000 hereditary disorders may beprevented or cured through geneticintervention. At Sangamo Biosciencesin California, researchershave experimented with rewritingthe patient’s own DNA, rather thanreplacing it, to correct hereditary errors.The technique may lead to practicaltherapies sooner than conventionalgene splicing. Also in theworks: gene-based diagnostic teststhat may identify cancer early andtell which drugs are most likely tobenefit individual patients with heartdisease, cancer, and other ills. Already,roughly 1,000 clinical trials ofgene therapy are under way in theUnited States alone.• A process called RNA interference,which deactivates individualgenes, is quickly revealing the genes’functions. It also may be used to disabledisease-causing genes, perhapsmaking it possible to cure cancer, viralillnesses, and some hereditarydisorders. One potential cure forHIV/AIDS is expected to be readyfor human testing in 2010.• In research performed outsidethe United States, stem cells promiseto repair damaged brains and otherorgans. Embryonic stem cells havealready been found to repair damagedheart muscle.• Growing knowledge of biochemistry,aided by advanced computermodeling, has made it possible todesign drugs that fit specific receptorsin the cell. Drugs createdthrough this technology often aremuch more effective than natural de-ther into the future, we can hardlyguess.In the next 10 years, we expect tosee more and better bionic limbs,hearts, and other organs; drugs thatprevent disease rather than merelytreating symptoms; and body monitorsthat warn of impending trouble.These all will reduce hospital stays.Outside the United States, transplantsof brain cells, nerve tissue,and stem cells to aid victims of retardation,head trauma, and other neurologicaldisorders will enter clinicaluse by 2012. Laboratory-grown bone,muscle, and blood cells also will beemployed in transplants.Expect also the first broadly effectivetreatments for viral diseases, experimentalregeneration of lost ordamaged human tissues, and effectiveways to prevent and correct obesity.By 2025, the first nanotechnologybasedmedical therapies shouldreach clinical use. Microscopic machineswill monitor our internal processes,remove cholesterol plaquesfrom artery walls, and destroy cancercells before they have a chance toform a tumor.Forecasting International believesthat cloning and related methodswill be accepted for the treatment ofdisease, though not to produce identicalhuman beings.Even without dramatic advancesin life extension, baby boomers arelikely to live much longer, and in betterhealth, than anyone now expects.However, this trend could be sidetrackedby the current epidemic ofobesity, which threatens to raise ratesof hypertension, diabetes, heart disease,and arthritis among boomers, ifa cure is not found quickly enough.High development and productioncosts for designer pharmaceuticals,computerized monitors, and artificialorgans will continue to push upthe cost of health care far more rapidlythan the general inflation rate.Much of these expenses will bepassed on to Medicare and otherthird-party payers.Severe personnel shortages can beexpected in high-tech medical specialties,in addition to the continuingdeficit of nurses.A growing movement to removebarriers to stem-cell research in theWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 25

United States could speed progressin this critical field. This could be expectedto produce new treatmentsfor neurological disorders such asParkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseaseand many other illnesses now incurableor untreatable. It also would recoverone aspect of America’s lostlead in science.A significant extension of healthy,vigorous life—to around 115 or 120years as a first step—now seemsmore likely than no extension at all.n 42The Internet continues togrow, but at a slower pace.• In mid-2009, Internet users numberedabout 1.7 billion, up less than50% in two years.• Most growth of the Internet populationis now taking place outsidethe United States, which is home toonly 13% of the world’s Internet users(but who now account for about74% of the U.S. population). In mid-2009, data showed 162 million Internetusers in China (27% of the population),81 million in India (7%), and96 million in Japan (75.5%). Internetpenetration is lagging badly in Africa,where only 6.8% of the populationis online (up from just 3.8% twoyears earlier). Africa’s Internet usersare mainly in the North Africancountries or in the Republic of SouthAfrica. In between, Internet connectionsare scarce.• When it comes to percentage ofbroadband users, the United Statesranks only fifteenth among the developedlands and twenty-fourthover all. About 70% of U.S. Internetusers have broadband service, comparedwith 90% in South Korea.Americans also get poorer service,with broadband speed 18th worldwideand some service providersthrottling download speeds forheavy users.• E-commerce is still recoveringfrom a downturn in the third quarterof 2008. In the United States, onlinesales in the second quarter of 2009came in at about $32.4 billion, up2.2% at a time when total retail salesshrank by 4.4%.• Not long ago, the Internet waspredominately English-speaking. Inmid-2007, English and “Chinese”(we assume, but cannot confirm, thatthis combines mainland Mandarin,Taiwanese Mandarin, and Cantonese)were tied at 31.7% of Internetusers. More than 5% of Netizensspoke Spanish, Japanese, German, orFrench.Assessment and Implications:Americans will continue to dominatethe Internet so long as they producea substantial majority of Webpages—but that is not likely to bevery long.Analysts believe that growth of Internetuse will not accelerate againuntil broadband service becomes lessexpensive and more widely available.This is a matter of governmentpolicy as much as of technology orbasic costs.Demands that the United States relinquishcontrol of the Internet to aninternational body can only gainbroader support and grow more emphaticas Americans make up asmaller part of the Internet user population.The Internet has made it much easierand cheaper to set up a profitablebusiness. An online marketing sitecan be set up with just a few minutes’work at a cost of much less than$100. This is fostering a new generationof entrepreneurs.Internet-based outsourcing of U.S.jobs to other countries has only justbegun. Growth in this field will accelerateagain as service firmsaround the world polish their workers’English, French, and Germanand find even more business functionsthey can take on.Cultural, political, and social isolationhas become almost impossiblefor countries interested in economicdevelopment. Even China’s attemptsto filter the Internet and shield itspopulation from outside influenceshave been undermined by hackerselsewhere, who provide ways topenetrate the barriers.Management andInstitutional Trendsn 43More entrepreneurs start newbusinesses every year.• In the United States, about 11% ofworkers are self-employed. Self-em-ployment has been growing in abouttwo-thirds of the OECD countries.• Women comprise a growing proportionof the self-employed in theUnited States, up from about 27% in1976 to 36% in 2009, according to theBLS.• Many women are leaving traditionaljobs to go home and openbusinesses, even as they begin a family.At least half of the estimated 10.6million privately held firms in theUnited States are owned by women,employing 19.1 million people andgenerating $2.46 trillion in sales annually.• Workers under 30 would preferto start their own company, ratherthan advance through the corporateranks. Some 10% are actively tryingto start their own businesses, threetimes as many as in previous generations.• Most simply distrust large institutionsand believe that jobs cannotprovide a secure economic future ina time of rapid technological change.• Firms with fewer than 500 employeesaccounted for 64% (or 14.5million) of the 22.5 million net newjobs (gains minus losses) between1993 and the third quarter of 2008,according to BLS figures. “Whilesmall firms create a majority of thenet new jobs, their share of employmentremains steady since somefirms grow into large firms as theycreate new jobs,” notes the SmallBusiness Administration.• However, jobs also disappearfastest from small companies, whichare much more likely to fail thanlarger concerns.Assessment and Implications:This is a self-perpetuating trend, asall those new service firms needother companies to handle choresoutside their core business. It will remainwith us for many years, notonly because it suits new-generationvalues but because it is a rational responseto an age in which jobs cannever be counted on to provide astable long-term income.It is driven as well by the attitudesand values of Gen X and the millennialsand by the rapid developmentsin technology, which create endlessopportunities for new business development.Specialty boutiques will continue26 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

to spring up on the Internetfor at least the next 15 years.This trend will help toease the poverty of manydeveloping countries, as italready is doing in Indiaand China.n 44Government regulationswill continue totake up a growing portionof the manager’s time andeffort.• In 1996, the U.S. Congresspassed regulatory reformlaws intended to slowthe proliferation of governmentregulations. Nonetheless,by 2001 more than14,000 new regulations wereenacted. Not one proposedregulation was rejected duringthis period.• In 2008, the Federal Register,which records regulationsproposed and enacted,ran to more than 80,200pages. To keep up with the flow, it ispublished daily. It has not missed aday since its first edition in 1936.• The Brussels bureaucrats of theEuropean Union are churning outregulations at an even faster rate,overlaying a standard regulatorystructure on all the national systemsof the member countries.• The growth of regulations is notnecessarily all bad. A study by theCongressional Office of Managementand Budget estimated that the annualcost of major federal regulationsenacted in the decade ending September2002 (the most recent data wehave been able to locate) amountedto between $38 billion and $44 billionper year. However, the estimatedbenefits of those regulations addedup to between $135 billion and $218billion annually.Assessment and Implications:Regulations are necessary, unavoidable,and often beneficial. Yet it isdifficult not to see them as a kind offriction that slows both current businessand future economic growth.The proliferation of regulations inthe developed world could give acompetitive advantage to countriessuch as India and China, where regulationsthat impede investment andcapital flow are being stripped away,while health, occupational safety,and environmental codes are still rudimentaryor absent.However, there is a significantpenalty for the kind of risk thatcomes from inadequate regulation.China pays an estimated risk penaltyof 6.49% for international borrowing.Per capita GDP, access to capital, foreigndirect investment, and othermeasures of a country’s economichealth all decline directly with a risingOpacity Index, which is heavilyinfluenced by the lack of effectiveregulations to guarantee a level playingfield for those doing businessthere.Nonetheless, lands such as Russiawill remain at a competitive disadvantageuntil they can pass andenforce the regulations needed to ensurea stable, fair business environment.n 45Multinational corporations areuniting the world—and growingmore exposed to its risks.• The continuing fragmentation ofthe post–Cold War world has reducedthe stability of some landswhere government formerly couldJESUS CONDE / ISTOCKPHOTOguarantee a favorable—or at leastpredictable—business environment.The current unrest in Iraq is one example.• Multinational corporations thatrely on indigenous workers may behindered by the increasing numberof AIDS cases in Africa and aroundthe world. Up to 90% of the populationin parts of sub-Saharan Africareportedly tests positive for HIV insome surveys. Thailand is almostequally stricken, and many otherparts of Asia show signs that theAIDS epidemic is spreading amongtheir populations.• One risk now declining is thethreat of sudden, extreme currencyfluctuations. In Europe, at least, theadoption of the euro is making for amore stable financial environment.Assessment and Implications: Itis becoming ever more difficult forbusiness to be confident that decisionsabout plant location, marketing,and other critical issues will continueto appear wise even five yearsinto the future. All long-term plansmust include an even greater marginfor risk management. This will encourageoutsourcing, rather than investmentin offshore facilities thatcould be endangered by suddenWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 27

changes in business conditions.Countries that can demonstrate asignificant likelihood of stability andpredictable business outcomes willenjoy a strong competitive advantageover neighbors that cannot. Witnessthe rapid growth of investmentin India now that deregulation andprivatization have general politicalsupport, compared with other Asianlands where conditions are less predictable.Although Russia has continued toattract Western investment, particularlyin its energy industry, the increasinglyautocratic governance bythe President Dmitry Medvedev andPremier Vladimir Putin, and probablyany future successors, couldeventually discourage foreign companiesfrom doing business there orrequire much more favorable termsto justify accepting the associatedrisks.n 46Consumers increasingly demandsocial responsibilityfrom companies and each other.• More than two-thirds of peoplearound the world surveyed by theWorld Economic Forum say that thecurrent economic crisis is a crisis ofvalues. Similar numbers believe thatpeople do not live the same values intheir business as they do in their personallives. Nearly 40% of respondentsidentified honesty, integrity,and transparency as the most importantvalues for the global politicaland business systems.• While the current recession mayhave temporarily reduced the significanceof “social responsibility” inmuch consumer spending, companiesare continuing to invest in corporateresponsibility programs, becausethey increasingly are beingjudged on issues such as how theytreat the environment.• Many are changing their businesspractices as a result. For example,home-improvement retailersHome Depot and Lowe’s havestopped buying wood from countrieswith endangered forests.• With 5% of the world’s populationand 66% of the lawyers on theplanet, American citizens do not hesitateto litigate if their demands arenot met. Other countries, such asIndia and China, are beginning tosee more legal actions on behalf ofcitizens’ causes.• In an effort to get ahead of thistrend, companies are now trying tomake good citizenship part of theirbrand. Unlike traditional “goodworks,” this movement aims forprofit and long-term corporate success,not just reputation-polishing.• In addition to traditional performancemeasures, Fortune now ranksits 500 companies according to “howwell they conform to socially responsiblebusiness practices.”• A survey of nearly 1,200 companies,81% of companies—and 98% oflarge firms—said corporate citizenshipis a priority; 84% said that beingsocially responsible has improvedtheir profits.Assessment and Implications:This trend is well established in theindustrialized world, but only beginningin the developing world. It canbe expected to grow more powerfulas the no-nonsense, bottom-line-orientedGen Xers and millennials gaininfluence.Government intervention willlikely supplant deregulation in theairline industry (in the interest ofsafety and services), financial services(to control instability andcosts), electric utilities (nuclear problems),and the chemical industry(toxic wastes).As the Internet spreads Western attitudesthroughout the world, consumersand environmental activists in otherregions will find more ways to use localcourt systems to promote their goals.Litigation is likely to become a globalrisk for companies that do not make theenvironment a priority.n 47On average, institutions aregrowing more transparent intheir operations, and more accountablefor their misdeeds.• Many different forces are promotingthis change in various partsof the world.• In the United States, the wave ofbusiness scandals in 2004, the controversyover child abuse within theCatholic Church, and the unwillingnessof the Bush administration toaccept effective oversight by Congressall have inspired demands forgreater transparency and accountability.Public ire over the bank failuresof 2008, and the subsequentbailouts, may yet trigger anotherround of regulations designed toshed light on secretive corporations.• China, rated by Kurtzman Groupas the most opaque of the major nations,was forced to open many of itsrecords as a precondition for joiningthe World Trade Organization.• In India, a country often regardedas one of the world’s mostcorrupt, the Central Vigilance Commissionhas opened the country’sbanking system to more effectiveoversight. Lesser “vigilance commissions”now oversee many parts ofthe Indian economy and government.• More generally, wars against terrorism,drug trafficking, and moneylaundering are opening the world’smoney conduits to greater scrutiny.They also are opening the operationsof nongovernmental organizationsthat function primarily as charitableand social-service agencies but arelinked to terrorism as well.Assessment and Implications:There are roughly as many reactionsagainst this trend as there are governments,agencies, or individualswith something to hide. Yet, the benefitsof transparency are so clear thatthe general decline of barriers tooversight is likely to continue untilsocieties develop a consensus abouthow much—or little—secrecy is reallynecessary.Countries with high levels oftransparency tend to be much morestable than more opaque lands. Theyalso tend to be much more prosperous,in part because they find it easierto attract foreign investment.Greater transparency reduces theoperational effectiveness of theworld’s miscreants. It impedes drugtraffickers and terrorist organizations,and also dishonest governmentsand bureaucrats.n 48Institutions are undergoing abimodal distribution: The bigget bigger, the small survive, andthe mid-sized are squeezed out.• Economies of scale enable thelargest companies to win out overmid-sized competitors, while “bou-28 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

tique” operations can take advantageof niches too small to be efficientlytapped by larger firms.• By 2012, there will be only fivegiant automobile firms. Productionand assembly will be centered inKorea, Italy, and Latin America.• The six largest airlines in theUnited States today control 65% ofthe domestic market, leaving roughlyone-third to be divided among manysmaller carriers. Many of these areno-frills carriers with limited serviceon a few routes where demand ishigh or competition is unusuallylow.• Where local regulations allow,mergers and acquisitions are an internationalgame. The continuing removalof trade barriers among EUnations will keep this trend active forat least the next decade.• We are now well into the seconddecade of micro-segmentation, asmore and more highly specializedbusinesses and entrepreneurs searchfor narrower niches. These smallfirms will prosper, even as midsized,“plain vanilla” competitors dieout. This trend extends to nearlyevery endeavor, from retail to agriculture.• “Boutique” businesses that provideentertainment, financial planning,and preventive medical carefor aging baby boomers will beamong the fastest-growing segmentsof the U.S. economy.Assessment and Implications: Nocompany is too large to be a takeovertarget if it dominates a profitablemarket or has other features attractiveto profit-hungry investors. Noniche is too small to attract and supportat least one or two boutique operations.Thanks in part to technology,this trend is likely to be apermanent feature of the businessscene from now on.Thus far, industries dominated bysmall, regional, often family-ownedcompanies have been relatively exemptfrom the consolidation nowtransforming many other businesses.Takeovers are likely even in these industriesin the next decade.This consolidation will extend increasinglyto Internet-based businesses,where well-financed companiesare trying to absorb orout-compete tiny online start-ups,much as they have done in the brickand-mortarworld.However, niche markets will continueto encourage the creation ofnew businesses. In Europe as of 2006,no fewer than 48 small, no-frills airlinesin 22 countries had sprung upto capture about 28% of the Continentalmarket share. Only 15 offeredmore than 50 flights per day.Terrorism Trendsn 49Militant Islam continues tospread and gain power.• It has been clear for years thatthe Muslim lands face severe problemswith religious extremists dedicatedto advancing their political, social,and doctrinal views by anymeans necessary.• Most of the Muslim lands areovercrowded and short of resources.Many are poor, save for the oil-richstates of the Middle East. Virtuallyall have large populations of youngmen, often unemployed, who are fre-SHANE LARSON / ISTOCKPHOTOquently attracted to violent extremistmovements.• Despite this, the number of Muslimswho say that suicide bombing is“often/sometimes justified” in a Pewsurvey has shrunk significantly sinceits post-9/11 peak. Only 15% ofEgyptians supported suicide bombingin 2009, down from 28% in 2006.In Lebanon, only 38% supported it,compared with 74% in 2002.• During its proxy war with theSoviet Union in Afghanistan, theUnited States massively fortified theMuslim extremist infrastructure bysupplying it with money, arms, andabove all training.• It made a similar mistake in Iraq,where the American occupation inspireda new generation of jihadists,who now are migrating to Afghanistanand Pakistan.• In a now-declassified NationalSecurity Estimate, the U.S. intelligencecommunity concluded that al-Qaeda was more powerful in 2007than it had been before the so-called“war on terror” began—more dangerouseven than it had been when itWorld Future Society, www.wfs.org • 29

planned the attacks of September 11,2001.• Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somaliaall face growing Muslim insurgencies.Assessment and Implications:Virtually all of the Muslim lands facean uncertain, and possibly bleak,future of political instability andgrowing violence. The exceptions arethe oil states, where money can stillbuy relative peace, at least for now.These problems often have spilledover into the rest of the world. Theywill do so again. The West, and particularlythe United States, must expectmore—and more violent—actsof terrorism for at least the next 20years.Europe faces a significant homegrownMuslim extremist movement,and the United States may do so inthe near future. Thanks largely towaves of immigration since the1980s, Islam is the fastest-growingreligion in both regions. Extremistclerics in Europe are recruitingyoung Muslims to the cause of jihadagainst their adopted homes. So far,their colleagues in the United Stateshave been much less successful. Thatmay not always be true.Muslims living in Great Britainhave recently launched a grassrootspeace campaign (www.LoveForAllHatredForNone.org)to counter extremistviews and to promote a positive imageof Islam. The campaign comes ata time when Islamophobia is at aheight. A recent survey by an independentagency had found that aquarter of respondents had describedIslam as the “worst religion” onearth, the group reports.In a 1994 terrorism study for theDepartment of Defense and othergovernment clients, Forecasting Internationalpredicted that by 2020 amajority of the world’s 25 or so mostimportant Muslim lands could be inthe hands of extremist religious governments.At the time, only Iran wasruled by such a regime. That forecaststill appears sound.Iraq is likely to become the nextfundamentalist Muslim regime. OnceU.S. forces leave, Iran will supportthe establishment of a Shiite regimemuch like its own in Baghdad.There is a one-in-ten chance thatthis will set off a general war in theMiddle East, as Sunni-dominatedstates intercede to protect Iraqi Sunnisagainst Shi’a domination. However,Iraq and Saudi Arabia alreadyare negotiating to keep this situationunder control.Any attempt to reduce the commitmentof Western forces to the taskof stabilizing Afghanistan will resultin the restoration of the Taliban topower.n 50International exposure includesa greater risk of terroristattack.• State-sponsored terrorism hasnearly vanished, as tougher sanctionsmade it more trouble than itwas worth. However, some roguestates may still provide logistical ortechnological support for independentterrorist organizations whenopportunities present themselves.• Nothing will prevent small, localpolitical organizations and specialinterestgroups from using terror topromote their causes. These organizationshave found inspiration, andmany have found common cause, inthe successes of al-Qaeda.• Until recently, attacks on U.S.companies were limited to rockthrowingat the local McDonald’s,occasional bombings of bankbranches and of U.S.-owned pipelinesin South America, and kidnappings.Since September 11, U.S.-owned hotel chains have experiencedmajor bombings, in part because U.S.government facilities overseas havebeen effectively hardened againstterrorist assault.• As the United States has beenforced to recognize, the most dangerousterrorist groups are no longermotivated primarily by specific politicalgoals, but by generalized, virulenthatred based on religion andculture.• Terrorism has continued to growaround the world as the Iraq warproceeds, even as the rate of violencein Iraq itself has, at least temporarily,declined.• Risks of terrorism are greatest incountries with repressive governmentsand large numbers of unemployedyoung men.Assessment and Implications: Onbalance, the amount of terrorist ac-tivity in the world will continue torise in the next 10 years. Terrorismagainst the West is likely to grow, notdecline, when fighters trained andbloodied in the Iraq war are able toturn their attention elsewhere.Western corporations may have todevote more of their resources toself-defense, while accepting smallerthan-expectedprofits from operationsin the developing countries.Like the attacks on the WorldTrade Center and Pentagon, the U.S.embassies in Kenya and Tanzania beforethem, and the bombings of theMadrid rail system and London subwayssince then, any attacks on majorcorporate facilities will be designedfor maximum destruction andcasualties. Bloodshed for its ownsake has become a characteristic ofmodern terrorism.Where terrorism is most common,countries will find it difficult to attractforeign investment, no matterhow attractive their resources.Though Islamic terrorists formonly a tiny part of the Muslim community,they have a large potentialfor disruption throughout the regionfrom Turkey to the Philippines.The economies of the industrializednations could be thrown into recessionat any time by another terroristevent on the scale of 9/11. Thisis particularly true of the UnitedStates. The impact would be greatestif the incident discouraged travel, asthe 9/11 attacks did.n 51As technology grows morecomplex, the world is growingmore fragile.• Vulnerabilities do not grow withthe size of a system, but in proportionto the number of its interconnections.Thanks to the Internet, muchof the world is almost infinitely interconnected.• Anyone with a personal computerknows how often operatingsystems, programs, and hardwarebreak down owing to unforeseen interactionsbetween one part of theprogramming and another.• Unforeseen, and often unforeseeable,drug interactions abound inolder patients, who may be takingone medication to control their bloodsugar levels, two or three drugs to30 • 52 Trends Shaping Tomorrow’s World

keep their cholesterol and bloodpressure under control, somethingfor their arthritis, and half a dozenover-the-counter pharmaceuticalsand supplements. One physician weknow is also a PhD pharmacologist.He declares: “If a patient is takingmore than three drugs, even if theyaren’t supposed to interact, youdon’t have any idea what is goingon.”• Early in October 2009, a breakdownin Britain’s air traffic controlsystem grounded transatlantic flightsat Gatwick and Heathrow, in London.In mid-November, a breakdownin critical computer systems in SaltLake City and Atlanta sent air trafficcontrollers back to entering informationinto their computers manually.Flights were delayed for hours.• Counterterrorism experts tell usthat most of the electrical power westof the Mississippi could be taken offlinefor months if terrorists destroyedjust four critical lines in the right sequence,with proper timing. Again,this is a result of the ways in whichsome components of a complex systeminteract with the rest.Assessment and Implications:Nothing will stop the world’s technologicalsystems from becomingmore complex every day.Spontaneous breakdowns in criticalsystems will grow more commonwith each passing year. Picture amalfunction in the systems controllingtraffic on an automated highwayor the pilotless airliners proposed for2030.Opportunities for sabotage alsowill proliferate.Operators of mundane systems,such as sewage plant controls or firealarm monitors, may find they needto implement quality assurance protocolsas complex as the ones NASAdeveloped for the space program.System security is likely to be ahigh-growth field for well-trainedspecialists in the coming decades.n 52Cyberattacks are spreadingrapidly.• In the run-up to Russia’s battlewith Estonia in May 2007, a massivedenial-of-service attack brought mostof the Estonian economy to a halt.The incident has never been provedto have originated with the Russiangovernment.• A similar attack struck computersin Georgia when relations withRussia became uncommonly tense.• Canadian researchers reportedthat they had uncovered more than1,000 attacks on sensitive computersystems carried out by hackers workingthrough Chinese servers. Targetsincluded embassies and consulates,academic networks, and the office ofthe Dalai Lama.• U.S. security officials reporteddiscovery of illicit software buried incomputers that control the nation’selectrical grid. The routines, whichauthorities said must have been installedby one or more foreign governments,would have allowed hackersto shut down the power systemin time of emergency.• Cyber-gangs in eastern Europehave been attacking small and midsizedcompanies in the United States,transferring funds from out of thetarget accounts. Victims who havecome forward include an electronicstesting firm in Baton Rouge, Louisiana,that was robbed of nearly$100,000; a Pittsburgh-area schooldistrict that lost $700,000; and a Texascompany that was defrauded of $1.2million.• In 2007, government computersecurityspecialists discovered thatsomeone had broken into networksoperated by the departments of Defense,State, and Commerce, andprobably NASA and the Departmentof Energy—“all the high-tech agencies,all the military agencies,” as JimLewis, director of the Center for Strategicand International Studies, putit. The intruders downloaded a massof sensitive information roughlyequivalent to the contents of the Libraryof Congress.• Several major power outages inBrazil—in 2005, 2007, and 2009—have been blamed on computerhackers who sabotaged the electriccompany’s control systems.• In November 2009, cybersecurityofficials from the U.S. Strategic Commandreported that the number ofmalicious attempts to break into DefenseDepartment computer networkshad jumped by 60% from theprevious year, to 43,785 in the firstsix months of 2009.• Cyberterrorism specialists worrythat computer chips bought fromforeign sources could include extracircuitry that would give hackers a“back door” into supposedly securecomputer systems. The chips couldbe used to download secret data orshut down critical hardware in timeof war. At least one such attack is believedto have been successful.Assessment and Implications:Cyberattack is a simple, low-cost, deniableway to give an adversary griefduring peacetime as well as in war. Itwill be a favorite tool for anyonewith the skill to use it.The United States is not preparedto safeguard itself against cyberattackby a foreign power.Neither is any other country whoseclassified or sensitive computer networksare connected to the Internet.Classified information on an Internet-connectedcomputer systemsshould be regarded as already compromised.Although there is no evidence thatinternational terrorist organizationshave yet adopted cyberwarfare tofurther their goals, they will do so assoon as they gain the necessaryskills. At that point, real-world destructionby cyberwarfare will becomea significant threat. Possible attacksinclude hacking into air trafficcontrol systems, chemical plant andrefinery controls, power systems,and other critical and potentially lethalinfrastructure.About the AuthorsCetronDaviesMarvin J. Cetron is president of ForecastingInternational Ltd. in Virginia. He is also amember of the World Future Society boardof directors.Owen Davies is a former senior editor ofOmni magazine and is a freelance writerspecializing in science, technology, and thefuture.Additional copies of this report (print orPDF) are available from the World FutureSociety, www.wfs.org.World Future Society, www.wfs.org • 31