Aircraft Maintenance Repair and Overhaul Market Study. - OBSA

Appendix 4Results Summary - Mainstream ScenarioProjectionsAv growth2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2005-2035GDPWorld (2005=100) 100 121.9 147.1 176.2 210.0 249.1 296.4Annual % variation 4.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7%Europe (2005=100) 100 113.0 126.9 142.1 158.7 176.5 196.5annual % variation 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%WORLD OIL PRICES (4)Price per barrel $51.87 $36.85 $38.44 $40.03 $41.61 $43.39 $45.18Index (2005 = 100) 100 71.1 74.1 77.2 80.2 83.7 87.1Annual % variation 41.1% -6.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% -0.5%AIR FARESIndex (2005 = 100) 100 90.3 87.2 84.2 81.5 79.0 76.6Annual % variation -2.0% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% -0.9%Passenger traffic forecastWorld (2005 = 100) 100 137.7 175.3 221.3 277.6 345.7 431.4Annual average % growth 6.6% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 5.0%Europe (2005=100) 100 126.6 149.0 174.7 204.0 236.6 274.5Annual average % growth 4.8% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4%Cargo traffic forecastWorld (2005 = 100) 100 138.9 183.8 240.7 313.1 403.9 523.1Annual average % growth 6.8% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.7%Europe (2005=100) 100 124.8 149.4 178.2 211.5 249.3 294.2Annual average % growth 4.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7%Fleet Forecast (World)747 or larger 960 2,053 3,046 4,276Twin-aisle 2,800 5,045 8,474 14,268Single-aisle 9,060 12,840 17,273 23,492Regional jets 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400Total 15,220 22,339 31,192 44,436 3.6%Fleet Forecast (Europe)747 or larger 261 480 649 860Twin-aisle 571 788 1,041 1,381Single-aisle 2,271 2,778 3,273 3,889Regional jets 540 486 437 393Total 3,643 4,532 5,400 6,524 2.0%(1) GDP measured in terms of 'international dollars' using 'purchasing power parity exchange rates(2) All cost and price assumptions are at constant prices (excluding the effect of inflation).(3) Oil price per barrel 2005 is average annual price in US$ quoted by US DOE. Forecast at constant pricesSTRAIR Aircraft Maintenance Repair and Overhaul Market Study. Glasgow International Airport. 41