India's Ad Hoc Arsenal - Publications - SIPRI

22 INDIA'S AD HOC ARSENALVI. Pakistan: limitations and capabilitiesIndia's security concerns vis-h-vis Pakistan should also be seen in relation tothe capabilities of the latter. Pakistan is a weak country, both economically andstrategically. It would have great difficulty in prevailing in a war againstIndia-resources, both military and civilian, are too limited, international supportinsufficient and the political and economic costs too high, even if thereexisted a chance of success in Kashmir.Pakistan is an extreme example of a state in search of an identity. First andforemost, it is far from certain whether or not Pakistan should ever have existedas a state in its own right, particularly in the configuration of East and WestPakistan. However much internal domestic politics might have necessitated theimposition of borders to separate Hindus and Muslims, it is reasonable to questionwhether or not the states comprising East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, and(West) Pakistan could not have enjoyed a better future as a represented part ofthe Indian Union, rather than as a beleaguered state with a continuing and profoundsense of insecurity positioned at the crossroads of one of the moststrategically important regions of the world. Although India's 80 millionMuslims have started to feel the brunt of Hindu chauvinism, this is recent.Certainly, tensions have always existed not far from the surface, but Muslims inIndia have fared surprisingly well over the past four decades-indeed, theirmaterial successes could in part lie behind the renewed animosity from theHindus. Nevertheless, Pakistan does exist, albeit having suffered the ignominyof partition, and it continues to do so in a state of broad-based and chronicinsecurity.Economically, Pakistan has always been a curious country. It is known forbeing poor, yet in many respects it is a wealthy country. Following a period ofuncontrolled growth in the 1960s economic power became severely concentrated;at one point 22 families controlled 66 per cent of industrial assets, 80 percent of the banks and 70 per cent of the insurance companies.25 Pakistan's grossnational product (GNP) per capita is one-third higher than India's and the infrastructure-roads,transport and telephones-is the most advanced in SouthAsia. Although there were set-backs during the Bhutto period his successor,General Zia, presided over annual growth rates of over 6 per cent. The succeedingcivilian regimes have been less successful. Agriculture has been a successfulsector in recent years, returning annual growth rates of 4 per cent, abovepopulation growth.Indeed, Pakistan has been likened to Israel: it is politically beleaguered bylarge and powerful countries, but it has been built by migrants with almost asmuch entrepreneurial spirit as the Jews of Israel. The economy has been growingby an average of 7 per cent per year while population growth is a mere 2.925 Vas, E. A., 'Pakistan's security futures', ed. S. P. Cohen, The Security of South Asia: American andAsian Perspectives (University of Illinois Press: Chicago, 111. 1987), p. 88.