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2 3Disaster PreparednessAnd MitigationInnovationThe Early Warning Stage Classification: a tool to enhance theefficiency of the Karamoja Drought Early Warning SystemThe Drought Early Warning SystemThe DEWS informs all stakeholders (communities, localand national government, development partners anddonors) in a timely manner on the risk and occurrence ofdrought, and to what extent it may affect the community.This information enables more appropriate decisionsto be made on activating preparedness mechanisms,the time frame available and the type of early actionsto be implemented. The communities receive messagesvia local radio stations and discussions with localleaders. These messages, formulated by the localgovernment representatives (district officials) in chargeof the monthly data analysis, give precise and actionablerecommendations on what best practices should beimplemented at household level to protect assets andlives.Malika Ogwang, Early Warning Specialist, ACTED UgandaThe Karamoja region is one of the least developed areas in Uganda, where the mainly agro-pastoralist population live insemi-arid lands and suffer from recurrent and increasingly more frequent drought. Since 2009 ACTED, in collaboration withthe Government of Uganda and various partners (NGOs, Community Based Organizations, UN agencies, FEWSNET) hasimplemented a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) for the region. ACTED has recently developed a new methodology toanalyse the DEWS data. Since June 2012 an Early Warning Stage Classification has guided district heads of departmenton how to establish warning stages out of the analysis of each indicator. These warning stages are key in raising timely andreliable alerts, and allowing stakeholders to design the right interventions in advance. This article reviews the principles of thismethodology and the benefit it has brought so far to the DEWS in Karamoja.The climate has really changed, it used to be more balanced ~Moding NgolepusSven Torfinn/OxfamThe system currently monitors information on 21 indicatorson a monthly basis, collected mainly at household levelbut also at district level. These indicators cover six sectors:livestock, crop, water, weather and environment, healthand nutrition, and security. They include information onthe vulnerability of the population, coupled with satelliteimages and weather predictions from the Departmentof Meteorology. Combining these two informationsources helps users assess both the risk of drought andits potential impact on the population in each livelihoodzone (agricultural, pastoral and agro-pastoral).The Early Warning Stage ClassificationThe Early Warning Stage Classification developed froma need to: harmonize the analysis of DEWS data withindistricts; to guide the District Officials on how to usea combination of the DEWS dataand their own understandingand experience of the context inKaramoja to establish warningstages; and ensure a transparentanalysis that the reader can easilyunderstand.The methodology is based on 4steps:Step 1: The identification of thewarning stages for the vulnerabilityindicators. This includes identifyingthe warning stages of each indicatorfirst, followed by the identificationof the warning stages of each sector, in each livelihoodzone.Step 2: Identification of the level of risk of drought. Thisis derived from the weather forecast produced by thenational government.Step 3: Identification of the global early warningstage per livelihood zone. This is a combination of thevulnerability warning stages and the level of risk ofdrought.Step 4: Forecast for the next one to three months. Thisestablishes a stable/improving/worsening trend.Identification of thresholds: In the absence of historicaldata for the 21 indicators, the EWPC relies on thresholds(normal/alert/alarm/emergency) and trends determinedout of the experience of technical experts who haveextensive knowledge and experience in the contextof Karamoja (see example in figure 1 below). Thesethresholds are tested and reviewed seasonally by thedistrict heads of department to improve their accuracy.Visualization in the Drought Bulletin: In order tomake the conclusions of the analysis easily and quicklyunderstandable by the end users, warning gaugesindicate the stage as shown in Figure 1. A summary of thestage for each zone, followed by the predicted trends andthe vulnerability warning identified for each sector arerepresented on page one of the district Drought Bulletins.Analysis per livelihood zone: Within each district ofKaramoja the analysis is made and recommendationsgiven for each livelihood zone. This is because thevulnerability of the population often differs between thezones and a district wide conclusion may mask importantdisparities.Figure 1: Visualization of the results given by theEarly Warning Stage ClassificationHow the classification improved the efficiency of thedrought early warning systemIn June 2012 all District Officials involved in the DroughtBulletin analysis (about 50 officers) were trained on howto use this new methodology. The methodology has nowbeen tested for three months and results already appear inthe Drought Bulletin production. While the thresholds arestill being fine-tuned, and some particular points are stillbeing discussed among partners, the new advancementof the DEWS has already shown a positive impact:1. The District Officials developed a considerable interestin the methodology and consequently in the wholesystem. The number of District Officials attendingthe Drought Bulletin analysis meetings almostdoubled from April to May 2012, making the analysis,interpretation and recommendations richer and moreaccurate. This also enhanced the local governmentownership of the system and is a step forward inensuring the sustainability of the system.2. The final document/Drought Bulletin is being read bya much higher number of partners including donors atinternational level.3. The Drought Bulletins are increasingly used for routinemonitoring and strategic decision-making of partnersworking in Karamoja. (Examples include: The KaramojaLivelihoods Programme, an EU and Government ofUganda initiative, that uses the Drought Bulletins toprioritize their activities and the communities most inneeds; and the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industryand Fisheries which uses it for the national FS updates)4. The presentation on the front page of the DroughtBulletin shows very clearly the problems and threatsidentified. The format is easily readable and muchappreciated by the various practitioners and decisionmakers.