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The Impact of Extending Marriage to Same-Sex Couples on the ...

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<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Impact</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Extending</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g><strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> California BudgetJune 2008Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor Brad Sears, J.D.Executive Direc<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>r, <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Williams Institute, UCLA School <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> LawAdjunct Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Law, UCLA School <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> LawPr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor M.V. Lee Badgett, PhDResearch Direc<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>r, <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Williams Institute, UCLA School <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> LawPr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Ec<strong>on</strong>omics, University <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts-AmherstEXECUTIVE SUMMARY<str<strong>on</strong>g>Extending</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples will boost California state and localgovernment revenues by over $63.8 milli<strong>on</strong>This analysis estimates <strong>the</strong> impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> California Supreme Court’s recent decisi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> extend marriage<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples <strong>on</strong> state and local government revenues in California. Using <strong>the</strong> best data available,we estimate that allowing same-sex couples <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry will result in approximately $63.8 milli<strong>on</strong> in revenueover <strong>the</strong> next three years.Our analysis relies <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> same methods that we used in previous studies <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> fiscal impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriagefor same-sex couples <strong>on</strong> Washing<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n, New Mexico, New Hampshire, California, C<strong>on</strong>necticut, Colorado,New Jersey, Massachusetts, Verm<strong>on</strong>t, Maryland, and Iowa. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> full methodology for our analysis is se<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>ut in Putting a Price <strong>on</strong> Equality? <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Impact</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> California’s Budget. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>sestudies have found that extending <strong>the</strong> rights and obligati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples would havea positive impact <strong>on</strong> each state’s budget. Similar c<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>s have been reached by legislative <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fices inC<strong>on</strong>necticut and Verm<strong>on</strong>t and by <strong>the</strong> Comptroller General <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> New York. In additi<strong>on</strong>, <strong>the</strong> C<strong>on</strong>gressi<strong>on</strong>alBudget Office has c<strong>on</strong>cluded that if all fifty states and <strong>the</strong> federal government extended <strong>the</strong> rights andobligati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples, <strong>the</strong> federal government would benefit by nearly $1 billi<strong>on</strong>each year.We base our c<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> following estimates:• Based <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> experience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> o<strong>the</strong>r states that have extended marriage and civil uni<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> samesexcouples, such as Massachusetts and Verm<strong>on</strong>t, approximately half <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> 102,639 same-sexcouples living in California, 51,319 couples, will marry in <strong>the</strong> next three years.1


INTRODUCTIONIn May 2008, <strong>the</strong> California Supreme Court ruled that <strong>the</strong> California C<strong>on</strong>stituti<strong>on</strong> requires <strong>the</strong> state <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>extend marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples. 1 A ballot initiative <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> amend <strong>the</strong> California C<strong>on</strong>stituti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> definemarriage as <strong>on</strong>ly between a man and a woman has qualified for <strong>the</strong> November 2008 ballot. 2 As <strong>the</strong>debate over same-sex marriage c<strong>on</strong>tinues in California, <strong>the</strong> social and ec<strong>on</strong>omic c<strong>on</strong>sequences <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>extending marriage rights have been raised.In this study, we engage in a series <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> analyses <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> examine <strong>the</strong> effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex marriage <strong>on</strong>California’s state budget over <strong>the</strong> next three years. Our analyses are grounded in <strong>the</strong> methodology thatwe used in previous studies <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> fiscal impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage for same-sex couples <strong>on</strong> Washing<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n, 3 NewMexico, 4 New Hampshire, 5 California, 6 C<strong>on</strong>necticut, 7 Colorado, 8 New Jersey, 9 Massachusetts, 10Verm<strong>on</strong>t 11 , Maryland, 12 and Iowa. 13 <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> full methodology for our analysis is set out in Putting a Price <strong>on</strong>Equality? <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Impact</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> California’s Budget, part <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> which we update in this14report.Findings from all <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>se studies suggest thatresult in a positive net impact <strong>on</strong> state budgets.extending marriage rights <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples wouldSimilar c<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>s have been reached by legislative <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fices in C<strong>on</strong>necticut 15 and Verm<strong>on</strong>t 16 and by <strong>the</strong>Comptroller General <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> New York. 17 In additi<strong>on</strong>, <strong>the</strong> C<strong>on</strong>gressi<strong>on</strong>al Budget Office has c<strong>on</strong>cluded that if allfifty states and <strong>the</strong> federal government extended <strong>the</strong> rights and obligati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sexcouples, <strong>the</strong> federal government would benefit by nearly $1 billi<strong>on</strong> each year. 18In Secti<strong>on</strong> I <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> this report, we estimate <strong>the</strong> number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples currently living in California whowill marry over <strong>the</strong> next three years. In Secti<strong>on</strong> II, we estimate <strong>the</strong> number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples whoare likely <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> travel from o<strong>the</strong>r states <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry in California during that time period. In Secti<strong>on</strong> III, weestimate <strong>the</strong> impact that expenditures <strong>on</strong> weddings by resident same-sex couples, as well asexpenditures <strong>on</strong> travel and weddings by out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state couples, will have <strong>on</strong> California’s ec<strong>on</strong>omy and stateand local tax revenues. In Secti<strong>on</strong> IV, we estimate <strong>the</strong> revenues from marriage license fees for residentand out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state same-sex couples who marry in California. In secti<strong>on</strong> V, we summarize <strong>the</strong> expectedpolicy impact for each revenue category we address.Throughout this report, we estimate <strong>the</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> weddings c<strong>on</strong>servatively. In o<strong>the</strong>r words,we choose assumpti<strong>on</strong>s that are cautious from <strong>the</strong> State’s perspective in that <strong>the</strong>y tend <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> produce lowerrevenues given <strong>the</strong> range <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> possibilities. Even so, we find that <strong>the</strong> effect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> allowing same-sex couples<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry in California is a gain <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> approximately $63.8 milli<strong>on</strong> in state and local government revenuesover <strong>the</strong> next three years.3


NUMBER OF SAME-SEX COUPLES WHO WILL MARRYCalifornia <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g>In order <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> assess <strong>the</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omic impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>extending marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples, wemust first calculate <strong>the</strong> number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sexcouples who will marry in California during <strong>the</strong>next three years. Not all couples choose <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>enter a legally bindingrelati<strong>on</strong>ship, even when <strong>the</strong>opti<strong>on</strong> is afforded <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>m.At <strong>the</strong> very least, <strong>the</strong>decisi<strong>on</strong> is likely <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> include aweighing <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> symbolicvalue <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> public and legalrecogniti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>relati<strong>on</strong>ship with <strong>the</strong>particular rights andresp<strong>on</strong>sibilities implied by<strong>the</strong> legal status <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage. We draw up<strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong>experience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> o<strong>the</strong>r states that have permittedsame-sex marriage or n<strong>on</strong>-marital legal statuses<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> estimate <strong>the</strong> number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex coupleswho will marry in California.Approximately51,320 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>California’s samesexcouples willmarry in <strong>the</strong> nextthree yearsMassachusetts is <strong>the</strong> <strong>on</strong>ly state in which samesexmarriage is legally permitted. Approximately9,695 same-sex couples married inMassachusetts during <strong>the</strong> first three years <strong>the</strong>ywere allowed <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> do so, 19 c<strong>on</strong>stituting at least44% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts’s same-sex couples ascounted in <strong>the</strong> U.S. Census Bureau’s AmericanCommunity Survey. 20We are also able <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> gain insight from states withcivil uni<strong>on</strong>s and domestic partnerships—statusesthat, though different from marriage, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fersome, if not most, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> state-level rights,benefits, and obligati<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage. InVerm<strong>on</strong>t, <strong>the</strong>re were 1,367 same-sex civil uni<strong>on</strong>sas <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> April 2007, meaning that about 56% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>Verm<strong>on</strong>t’s same-sex couples have entered in<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> acivil uni<strong>on</strong>. 21 In California, <strong>the</strong>re were 48,157domestic partnerships as <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> April 2008; 22 thus,approximately 47% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> California’s 102,639same-sex couples have entered in<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> a domesticpartnership. 23Based <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> experience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>se states, wepredict that 50% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> California’s same-sexcouples will marry in <strong>the</strong> next three years.Based <strong>on</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r states’ experiences, we predictthat half <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> California’s 102,639 same-sexcouples, or about 51,320 same-sex couples, willmarry in <strong>the</strong> next three years.<str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> From O<strong>the</strong>r StatesWhen same-sex marriage was available in SanFrancisco for <strong>on</strong>e m<strong>on</strong>th in 2004, couples camefrom 46 states and eight countries <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry. 24When marriage becomes available for same-sexcouples throughout California, we predict that anumber <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> couples from o<strong>the</strong>r states will alsochoose <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry in California.We estimate that in <strong>the</strong> first three years thatsame-sex couples are allowed <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry inCalifornia, 67,513 couples from o<strong>the</strong>r states willtravel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry. We base ourestimate <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> following assumpti<strong>on</strong>s.First, <strong>the</strong> incentives for same-sex couples fromo<strong>the</strong>r states <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> come <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry willbe <strong>the</strong> greatest in states where i) it seems mostlikely that <strong>the</strong>ir relati<strong>on</strong>ships will be recognizedby <strong>the</strong>ir state when <strong>the</strong>y return home and ii) analternative <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> recogniti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>ir relati<strong>on</strong>ships,such as civil uni<strong>on</strong>s ordomestic partnerships, is notavailable in <strong>the</strong>ir home state.Based <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong>se two criteria,we predict that same-sexcouples living in New York 25and New Mexico 26 will haveApproximately67,513 samesexcouples willtravel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>marry in <strong>the</strong>next three years<strong>the</strong> most incentive <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry. According<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> data from <strong>the</strong> U.S. CensusBureau’s American CommunitySurvey, 55,276 same-sex couples live in <strong>the</strong>setwo states. 27 As in California, we assume that50% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>se couples will want <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry in <strong>the</strong>short-term. However, due <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> deterrenteffect <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> need <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> travel, we estimate tha<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>nly 25%, or 13,819, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>se couples will marryin California during <strong>the</strong> next three years.For <strong>the</strong> rest <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> country, we assume that <strong>the</strong>likelihood that <strong>the</strong>ir marriage in California will4


not be recognized by <strong>the</strong>ir home state, ei<strong>the</strong>r atall, or in <strong>the</strong> case <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a few states, not as amarriage, 28 will deter more couples fromtraveling <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry. However, as<strong>the</strong> <strong>on</strong>e m<strong>on</strong>th that marriage was <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fered in SanFrancisco dem<strong>on</strong>strates, a number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> coupleswill travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry for symbolic andemoti<strong>on</strong>al reas<strong>on</strong>s.We assume that travel costs will be less <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> adeterrent for individuals from states whichalready send a significant number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urists <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>California: Nevada, Ariz<strong>on</strong>a, Texas, Washing<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n,Oreg<strong>on</strong>, and North Carolina. Over 52% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>California’s domestic <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism originates from<strong>the</strong>se six states. 29 According <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> data from <strong>the</strong>U.S. Census Bureau’s American CommunitySurvey, 124,771 same-sex couples live in <strong>the</strong>sestates. 30 We also estimate that 25% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>secouples, or 31,193 couples, will travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry.We c<strong>on</strong>servatively estimate that 5% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>couples in <strong>the</strong> remaining states, or 22,501couples, will travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry over<strong>the</strong> next three years. Massachusetts isexcluded, given that it is <strong>the</strong> <strong>on</strong>ly state that hasextended marriage rights <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples. 31We include states with domestic partner benefitsand civil uni<strong>on</strong>s because some individuals with<strong>the</strong>se benefits would still choose <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry inorder <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> receive <strong>the</strong> added social and emoti<strong>on</strong>albenefits that might be associated with marriage.In additi<strong>on</strong>, in New Hampshire and New Jersey aCalifornia marriage will also be recognized as acivil uni<strong>on</strong> without <strong>the</strong> need <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> re-register forthat status in those states. 32In Table 2, we have set forth <strong>the</strong> estimatednumbers <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state same-sex couples whowould travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry. This resultsin an estimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 67,513 same-sex couples whowill travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California from o<strong>the</strong>r states <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>marry.However, this estimate is c<strong>on</strong>servative since wedo not take in<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> account couples who were notcounted in <strong>the</strong> American Community Survey orany couples living in foreign countries whomight travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> get married.Table 2: Out-Of-State <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> Who Will Marry in California, First Three YearsStateNumber <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> 33Number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> Traveling <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>Marry (25% for named states, 5% for o<strong>the</strong>r 40 states andDC)New York 48,761 12,190New Mexico 6,515 1,629Ariz<strong>on</strong>a 15,709 3,927Nevada 6,298 1,575North Carolina 20,711 5,118Oreg<strong>on</strong> 12,659 3,165Texas 47,514 11,879Washing<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n 21,880 5,470O<strong>the</strong>r 40states and DC(excluding CAand MA)450,027 22,501TOTAL 67,5135


WEDDING AND TOURISM SPENDING<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> extensi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> marriage rights <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sexcouples will generate ec<strong>on</strong>omic gains forCalifornia businesses, generating tax revenuesfor state and local governments. Weddingscreate ec<strong>on</strong>omic activity as well as jobs,providing a boost <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omy. Forbesmagazine projects that if same-sex marriagerights were granted nati<strong>on</strong>-wide, same-sexweddings would generate $16.8 billi<strong>on</strong> dollars inexpenditures, adding significantly <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> America’sannual $70 billi<strong>on</strong> wedding industry. 34 Ano<strong>the</strong>rrecent estimate c<strong>on</strong>cludes that gay marriage willgenerate a billi<strong>on</strong> dollars per year in spending inincrease in state and local From 2008-2010,government revenues. spending <strong>on</strong><strong>the</strong> United States. 35 Based <strong>on</strong> our analysis, weestimate that allowing<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism andFor over twenty years, analyses <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> o<strong>the</strong>r states’ same-sex couples <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> wed in weddings by samesexcouples wouldc<strong>on</strong>siderati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> opening marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex California could result incouples have argued that <strong>the</strong> first state or states approximately $683.6<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> do so would experience a wave <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> increased milli<strong>on</strong> in additi<strong>on</strong>al boost California’s<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism from out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state couples that would spending <strong>on</strong> weddings and ec<strong>on</strong>omy by overbring milli<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> additi<strong>on</strong>al dollars in revenue <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism in <strong>the</strong> State overstate businesses.$683 milli<strong>on</strong>,36 In <strong>the</strong> Spring <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2004, <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong> next three years,issuance <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> gay marriage licenses in Portland, creating approximately creating almostOreg<strong>on</strong> and San Francisco, California provided2,200 new jobssupport for <strong>the</strong>se predicti<strong>on</strong>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> actualexperience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> businesses in Portland 37 and SanFrancisco 38 dem<strong>on</strong>strated that allowing samesexcouples <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry does in fact generate<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism and additi<strong>on</strong>al revenue for businesses.In fact, same-sex couples from forty-six statesand eight countries traveled <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> San Francisco <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>get married during <strong>the</strong> <strong>on</strong>e m<strong>on</strong>th that <strong>the</strong> cityissued marriage licenses. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, inanticipati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> availability <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sexmarriage in Massachusetts, cities in that stateexperienced a spike in hotel reservati<strong>on</strong>s,catering requests, and o<strong>the</strong>r wedding-relatedorders. 39Estimates <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts’ potential gain fromout-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state couples coming <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> state <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>marry have exceeded $100 milli<strong>on</strong>. 40 However,<strong>the</strong> Supreme Court <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts hasinterpreted a 1913 Massachusetts state law <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>prohibit gay and lesbian couples from outside <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><strong>the</strong> state from marrying in Massachusetts unless<strong>the</strong>y live in a state, namely New Mexico, NewYork and Rhode Island, which has a public policythat would support <strong>the</strong> recogniti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>irmarriages. 41 As a result, California is poised <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>be <strong>the</strong> first state <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> take full advantage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>same-sex <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism and wedding windfall.In this secti<strong>on</strong>, we estimate <strong>the</strong> potentialec<strong>on</strong>omic impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> weddings and <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism bysame-sex couples. By allowing same-sexcouples <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry—regardless <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> residencystatus—California’s businesses will experience alarge increase in wedding and <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism revenuethat will also result in an2,178 new jobs 42 andresulting in additi<strong>on</strong>al stateand local tax revenues <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> $63.8 milli<strong>on</strong>. To put<strong>the</strong>se figures in c<strong>on</strong>text, $97 billi<strong>on</strong> was spen<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism in California in 2007, supporting924,100 jobs and generating $6.1 billi<strong>on</strong> in localand state tax revenues. 43<str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> From O<strong>the</strong>r StatesIn order <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> estimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism expendituresderived from <strong>the</strong> 67,513 out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state coupleswho we estimate will likely marry in Californiaover <strong>the</strong> next three years, we draw <strong>on</strong> California<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism data that indicate <strong>the</strong> average perpers<strong>on</strong> per diem spending for California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>uristsas $162.80, and <strong>the</strong> average length <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> stay as4.15 days. 44 We estimate, <strong>the</strong>n, that <strong>the</strong>secouples will spend an average <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> $1,351 <strong>on</strong>travel-related expenses during <strong>the</strong>ir stay inCalifornia.In additi<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism expenses, spending willalso be generated by <strong>the</strong> wedding preparati<strong>on</strong>s<strong>the</strong>mselves, including items such as cerem<strong>on</strong>ies,meals, parties, transportati<strong>on</strong>, flowers,6


pho<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>graphs, and o<strong>the</strong>r expenses. According <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Wedding Report, a wedding industryresearch group, <strong>the</strong> average cost <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> a weddingin <strong>the</strong> United States during <strong>the</strong> next three yearsWeddings and<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism spendingby same-sexcouples willgenerate$55 milli<strong>on</strong> inCalifornia taxrevenueswill be $29,624. 45 Wec<strong>on</strong>servatively assumethat out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state coupleswould spend less, <strong>on</strong>average, than in-statecouples <strong>on</strong> weddings,given <strong>the</strong> challenges <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>planning a wedding fromano<strong>the</strong>r state and <strong>the</strong>travel costs alreadyc<strong>on</strong>sidered. N<strong>on</strong>e<strong>the</strong>less,out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state same-sexcouples would typicallyspend more than <strong>the</strong>typical <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urist, as <strong>the</strong>y will likely purchaseaccommodati<strong>on</strong>s, meals, clothing, flowers, gifts,and o<strong>the</strong>r wedding-related items. We alsoexpect additi<strong>on</strong>al spending by friends or familymembers who might accompany <strong>the</strong> couple,which is spending not included in <strong>the</strong> averagewedding cost. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>refore, we c<strong>on</strong>servativelyassume that <strong>the</strong> additi<strong>on</strong>al wedding spending byout-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state couples will be <strong>on</strong>e-tenth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>typical wedding expense, or $2,962.This c<strong>on</strong>servative estimate also takes in<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>account that some couples may have alreadyhad a commitment cerem<strong>on</strong>y and that same-sexcouples may be less able <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> rely <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong>resources <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>ir parents and family forwedding expenditures. We also use thisc<strong>on</strong>servative estimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> account for <strong>the</strong> factthat couples will split <strong>the</strong>ir expenditures betweenCalifornia and <strong>the</strong>ir home state.Thus, we estimate wedding and <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urismspending at $4,314 per couple for out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-statecouples. Multiplying our estimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-statecouples by this figure, we estimate thatextending marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples willboost <strong>the</strong> state ec<strong>on</strong>omy by approximately$291.2 milli<strong>on</strong> over <strong>the</strong> next three years.Next, we estimate state and local tax revenuesfrom spending by out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state same-sexcouples. Since state and local sales taxes andtransient occupancy taxes 46 vary by county inCalifornia, we use a state-wide average for<strong>the</strong>se taxes weighted by <strong>the</strong> proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> samesexcouples that live in each <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> California’scounties. 47 Using <strong>the</strong>se weighted averages, 8%for sales tax and 11.1% for <strong>the</strong> transien<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>ccupancy tax, we estimate that spending byout-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> state couples will generate more than$23.7 milli<strong>on</strong> in tax revenues for <strong>the</strong> state. 48<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>se taxes <strong>on</strong>ly capture <strong>the</strong> most direct taximpact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> increased <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism; <strong>the</strong>y do not includeCalifornia’s mo<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>r vehicle fuel tax, excise tax <strong>on</strong>alcoholic beverages, any property tax revenuesthat may be generated, nor do <strong>the</strong>y includeincreased taxes from earnings. Businesses andindividuals will also pay taxes <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> newearnings generated by wedding spending,providing a fur<strong>the</strong>r boost <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> state budget.California <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g>We estimate that 51,319, or half, <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> California’ssame-sex couples would choose <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry ifpermitted (See Secti<strong>on</strong> I above). <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> weddings<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>se in-state couples would most likely belarger than those <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state couples, giventhat <strong>the</strong>y will be better able <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> plan a largewedding, and <strong>the</strong>ir friends and families are morelikely <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> be local. However, same-sex couplesmay receive less financial support from <strong>the</strong>irparents and o<strong>the</strong>r family members <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> coverwedding costs. Additi<strong>on</strong>ally, <strong>on</strong>ly spending thatcomes from couples’ savings would truly be“new spending” for <strong>the</strong> State’s businesses,ra<strong>the</strong>r than m<strong>on</strong>ey diverted from some o<strong>the</strong>rexpenditure. Accordingly, we assume thatsame-sex couples will spend <strong>on</strong>ly 25% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>average amount that different-sex couples inCalifornia are projected <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> spend <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong>irweddings during <strong>the</strong> next three years($30,580), 49 or just over $7,645. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>tal for51,319 couples would come <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> over $392.3milli<strong>on</strong> in additi<strong>on</strong>al wedding spending in threeyears.We do not estimate any additi<strong>on</strong>al <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urismspending for California couples. But couplesmight invite friends and family members wholive in o<strong>the</strong>r states <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> attend weddings inCalifornia, adding <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism expenditures.Using <strong>the</strong> weighted averages for California stateand local sales taxes and transient occupancytaxes, this direct wedding spending by resident7


couples will generate an additi<strong>on</strong>al $31.4 milli<strong>on</strong>in sales tax revenues over <strong>the</strong> three years.Table 3 adds <strong>the</strong> spending by in-state and out<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-statesame-sex couples <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> estimate a <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>tal <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>$683.6 milli<strong>on</strong> in wedding and <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism spendingover <strong>the</strong> first three years, generatingapproximately $55.1 milli<strong>on</strong> in additi<strong>on</strong>alrevenues for state and local governments.Table 3: Expenditures <strong>on</strong> California Weddings and Tourism by <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> in FirstThree Years<str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> Marryingin CaliforniaWedding andTourism Spendingper CoupleTotal Spending perGroup(milli<strong>on</strong>s)State and LocalTax Revenues(milli<strong>on</strong>s)Out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-State 67,513 $4,314 $291.2 $23.7California 51,320 $7,645 $392.3 $31.4TOTAL $683.6 $55.18


MARRIAGE LICENSE FEES<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> weddings <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> both in-state and out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-statesame-sex couples will also generate revenuesfor counties through marriage license fees.Since marriage license fees vary by county inCalifornia, we use a statewide average for <strong>the</strong>fee weighted by <strong>the</strong> proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sexcouples who live in each California county. 50Table 4 multiples this weighted average, $73.50,by our estimates <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> resident andn<strong>on</strong>-resident same-sex couples who will marry inCalifornia during <strong>the</strong> first three years.Of course, some <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> revenues <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>se feeswill be <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fset by <strong>the</strong> costs <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> processing <strong>the</strong>additi<strong>on</strong>al marriage licenses. However, o<strong>the</strong>rstates that have extended marriage, civil uni<strong>on</strong>s,or domestic partnerships <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex coupleshave experienced very small increases inadministrative costs. 51 Currently, <strong>the</strong> majority<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>marriage license fees established by Californiastate statute are designated for purposes o<strong>the</strong>rthan covering administrative costs, such ascounty general funds or family c<strong>on</strong>ciliati<strong>on</strong>programs. Most notably, $23 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> each marriagelicense fee is allocated by California statute <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>domestic violence programs. 52In additi<strong>on</strong>, we do not include in our estimateadditi<strong>on</strong>al fees that will be generated by coupleswho ask for a c<strong>on</strong>fidential marriage license,request a certified copy <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>ir marriagelicense, or have <strong>the</strong>ir cerem<strong>on</strong>y performed by<strong>the</strong> county clerk’s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fice. For example, <strong>the</strong> basicmarriage license fee in Sacramen<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> County is$77, but if a couple elected all <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> additi<strong>on</strong>alservices listed above, <strong>the</strong>y would pay $152. 53Table 4: California Revenues for <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> License Fees from <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> in First ThreeYears<str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> Marrying inCalifornia<str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> License Fee(weighted average)Total Fees generated(milli<strong>on</strong>s)Out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-State 67,513 $73.50 $5.0California 51,320 $73.50 $3.8TOTAL $8.89


SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSTable V shows our estimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>talrevenues for California during each <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> firstthree years that same-sex couples are allowed<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry. We use <strong>the</strong> experience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>Massachusetts <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> model <strong>the</strong> number <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> samesexcouples who will marry in California in each<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> next three years. In Massachusetts,9,695 same-sex couples married in <strong>the</strong> firstthree years: 63% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> those couples married in<strong>the</strong> first year, 21% married in <strong>the</strong> sec<strong>on</strong>d year,and 15% married in <strong>the</strong> third year. 54 For out<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-statecouples, we assume that <strong>the</strong> need <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>travel and plan a trip will space out <strong>the</strong>irweddings more evenly. Accordingly, we assumethat <strong>on</strong>e-third <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> those couples will come <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>state in each <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> first three years thatCalifornia extends marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sexcouples.Table 5: Summary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Fiscal Effects, First Three YearsRevenue Source Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 TotalTax Revenue from Out<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-State<str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g>Tax Revenue FromCalifornia <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g>License Fees from Out<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-StateCoupleLicense Fees fromCalifornia <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g>$7.9 $7.9 $7.9 $23.7$20 $6.7 $4.7 $31.4$1.7 $1.7 $1.7 $5.0$2.4 $.8 $.6 $3.8Total $32.0 $17.1 $14.8 $63.8Using U.S. Census Bureau data about same-sex couples and drawing <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> experience <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusettsand o<strong>the</strong>r states, we estimate that during <strong>the</strong> first three years that marriage is extended <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sexcouples in California:• Approximately 51,319 couples residing in California will marry.• In additi<strong>on</strong>, approximately 67,513 same-sex couples from o<strong>the</strong>r states will come <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>marry.• California’s wedding and <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism-related business sec<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>rs will see an in increase <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> $683.6 milli<strong>on</strong>in direct spending over <strong>the</strong> next three years.• This direct spending will support over 2,178 new jobs in travel-related business in California.• <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> direct spending from same-sex couples <strong>on</strong> weddings and <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism will generate $55.1 milli<strong>on</strong>in state and local tax revenues.• In additi<strong>on</strong>, <strong>the</strong> weddings from in-state and out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state couples will generate $8.8 milli<strong>on</strong> inmarriage license fees.10


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWe thank Gary J. Gates for analyzing Census 2000 and American Community Survey data for this reportand Darcy Pottle, Chris Ramos, and Dev<strong>on</strong> Dunlap for <strong>the</strong>ir research, editing, and graphic designassistance.ABOUT THE AUTHORSBrad Sears is Executive Direc<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>r <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> Williams Institute, UCLA School <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Law, where he is also anAdjunct Pr<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>essor <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Law and teaches sexual orientati<strong>on</strong> and disability law courses. His current researchfocuses <strong>on</strong> HIV discriminati<strong>on</strong> by health care providers.M.V. Lee Badgett is Research Direc<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>r at <strong>the</strong> Williams Institute, UCLA School <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Law, and Direc<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>r <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><strong>the</strong> Center for Public Policy and Administrati<strong>on</strong> at <strong>the</strong> University <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts Amherst, where she isalso <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> faculty <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Ec<strong>on</strong>omics. She studies family policy and employmentdiscriminati<strong>on</strong> related <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> sexual orientati<strong>on</strong>.For more informati<strong>on</strong>, c<strong>on</strong>tact:<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Williams InstituteUCLA School <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> LawBox 951476Los Angeles, CA 90095-1476T (310)267-4382F (310)825-7270williamsinstitute@law.ucla.eduwww.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute11


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Hevesi <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> New York City Council in Support<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> Right <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Civil <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> for <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> in New York State, March 3. New York: Office <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> New YorkState Comptroller. http://www.osc.state.ny.us/press/releases/mar04/030304b.htm (accessed March 2008).18 Holtz-Eakin, Douglas (Direc<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>r, C<strong>on</strong>gressi<strong>on</strong>al Budget Office). 2004. “<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Potential Budgetary <str<strong>on</strong>g>Impact</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>Recognizing <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>s.” Letter <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Chairman <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> House Subcommittee <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> C<strong>on</strong>stituti<strong>on</strong>, June 21.http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/55xx/doc5559/06-21-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g><str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>.pdf (accessed March 2008).19 Comm<strong>on</strong>wealth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts, Registry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vital Records and Statistics, Table 1 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> statistical report dated May16, 2007. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> data for 2007 cover <strong>the</strong> time period through March 2007.20 Gates, Gary. 2007. Geographic Trends Am<strong>on</strong>g <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g> in <strong>the</strong> U.S. Census and <strong>the</strong> American CommunitySurvey, <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Williams Institute. Page 17, Appendix I. http://www.law.ucla.edu/WilliamsInstitute/publicati<strong>on</strong>s/ACSBriefFinal.pdf (accessed May 31, 2008) (average <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2004-06 American Community Survey data forsame-sex couples in Massachusetts, 21,956).21 See Cindy Chooley, Verm<strong>on</strong>t Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Health. Apr. 2007. M<strong>on</strong>thly Report <strong>on</strong> Civil Uni<strong>on</strong>s (reporting that1,367 same-sex couples have entered a civil uni<strong>on</strong> in <strong>the</strong> state). Gates, supra note 20 Page 17, Appendix I.(average <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2004-06 American Community Survey data for same-sex couples in Verm<strong>on</strong>t, 2,435).12


22 E-mail from Special Filings/Domestic Partnership Unit, Secretary <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> State, California, <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Christian Cooper (April 4,2008) (reporting that 48,157 same-sex couples have entered a domestic partnership in <strong>the</strong> state). Though domesticpartnerships are available <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> different-sex couples under specific circumstances, we c<strong>on</strong>servatively assume that 95%<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> domestic partners in California are same-sex couples.23 Gates, supra note 20 at Page 17, Appendix I. (average <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2004-06 American Community Survey data for same-sexcouples in California, 102,639).24 Teng, Mabel S., San Francisco Assessor-Recorder. 2004. Demographics Breakdown <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g> Gender <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>s.http://www.aliceb<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>lkas.org/abt/samesexmarriagestats.ppt (accessed May 20, 2007).25 New York’s Governor, At<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>rney General, and Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Civil Service have all recently issued statements thatNew York will recognize same-sex marriages in o<strong>the</strong>r states. See Memorandum from David Nocenti <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> All AgencyCounsel (May 14, 2008); Op. Att’y Gen. No. 2004-1 (Mar. 3, 2004), available at http://www.oag.state.ny.us/press/2004/mar/mar3a_04_attach2.pdf. More recently, <strong>the</strong> At<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>rney General’s Office reaffirmed its positi<strong>on</strong> in afriend-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<strong>the</strong>-court brief; See, e.g., Brief <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> At<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>rney General <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> State <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> New York as Amicus Curiae inSupport <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Plaintiff-Appellant, dated March 2, 2007, filed as exhibit <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> moti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> At<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>rney General for leave <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> fileamicus curiae brief in Funderburke v. New York State Dept. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Civil Service, Docket No. 2006-7589 (2d Dept.)(At<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>rney General); and DCS Policy Memorandum Number: 129r1, Policy File Ref: A330 (Issued: September 22,2006, revised: May 1, 2007). In additi<strong>on</strong>, New York’s Governor has specifically c<strong>on</strong>firmed that New York couples whomarry in California will have <strong>the</strong>ir marriages recognized. See Peters, Jeremy. 2008. “New York <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Back <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g>Uni<strong>on</strong>s From Elsewhere.” <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> New York Times. May 29: A1. New York courts have also supported <strong>the</strong> recogniti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>same-sex marriages from o<strong>the</strong>r jurisdicti<strong>on</strong>s. See e.g., Martinez v. County <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> M<strong>on</strong>roe, 850 N.Y.S.2d 740 (App. Div.2008) (holding that valid Canadian marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couple is entitled <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> recogniti<strong>on</strong> in New York for purposes <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>spousal health care benefits); Lewis v. New York State Dep’t <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Civil Serv., No. 4078-07 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. Mar. 3, 2008)(holding State Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Civil Service “within its authority” <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> adopt policy recognizing out <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> state marriages <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>same-sex couples for purpose <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> employee benefits); and Beth R. v. D<strong>on</strong>na M., No. 350284/07, __ N.Y.S.2d __, 2008N.Y. Slip Op. 28091, 2008 WL696441 (Sup. Ct. Feb. 25, 2008) (denying moti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> dismiss divorce acti<strong>on</strong> andrejecting argument that Canadian marriage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couple is void under New York law).26 <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts Supreme Court has interpreted a 1913 state law <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> mean that same-sex couples from o<strong>the</strong>rstates can <strong>on</strong>ly marry in Massachusetts if <strong>the</strong>ir home state does not prohibit <strong>the</strong> recogniti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> such a marriage. SeeCote-Whitacre v. Dept. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Public Health, 446 Mass. 350, 844 NE2d 623 (March 30, 2006). In July 2007, <strong>the</strong>Massachusetts Department <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Public Health determined that New Mexico is such a state. See Abel, David. 2007.”<str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-sex couples from N.M. allowed <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry in Mass. Bay State agency clarifies ruling,” <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Bos<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n Globe, July 27;http://www.bos<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n.com/news/local/articles/2007/07/27/same_sex_couples_from_nm_allowed_<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>_marry_in_mass(accessed May 31, 2008). This is due largely <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> str<strong>on</strong>g New Mexico comity statute for recognizing marriages fromo<strong>the</strong>r states. NMSA Secti<strong>on</strong> 40-1-4 (1978) and Lesinske v. Poole, 798 P.2d 1049 (1990) (interpreting NMSA Secti<strong>on</strong>40-1-4). Massachusetts courts have also determined that couples from Rhode Island can also marry inMassachusetts. See Cote-Whitacre v. Dept. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Public Health, 446 Mass. 350, 844 NE2d 623 (March 30, 2006) and <strong>the</strong>Amended and Final Judgment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> trial court <strong>on</strong> May 10, 2007. http://www.glad.org/marriage/Cote-Whitacre/AmendedFinalJudgment.pdf.(last accessed <strong>on</strong> May 31, 2008). However, we include Rhode Island in <strong>the</strong>category <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> states for which we predict <strong>on</strong>ly 5% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples will come <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry, see below,based <strong>on</strong> Rhode Island’s extremely close proximity <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts and a recent ruling by <strong>the</strong> Rhode IslandSupreme Court that leaves <strong>the</strong> determinati<strong>on</strong> by Massachusetts courts in doubt. See Chambers v. Ormis<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n, 935 A.2d956 (R.I. 2007).27 Gates, supra note 20 at Page 17, Appendix I.28 Both New Hampshire and New Jersey have civil uni<strong>on</strong> statutes that would treat a California marriage has a validcivil uni<strong>on</strong> in those states. See, N.H. Rev. Stat.Ann. § 457-A:8 (2008) and Formal Op. Att’y Gen.(N.J.) No. 3-2007,2007 WL 749807 (Feb. 16, 2007). Arguably, like New York and New Mexico, more couples from <strong>the</strong>se states mightcome <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry than from o<strong>the</strong>r states.29 D.K. Shifflet & Associates, California Domestic Travel Report 2006. September 2007, Table 86 “ Top Origin States”,page 108-109. Over 52% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> California’s domestic <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urists come from <strong>the</strong>se states. http://www.visitcalifornia.com/media/uploads/files/CAYE2006DomesticTravelReport-Final.pdf (last accessed May 31, 2008).30 Gates, supra note 20 at Page 17, Appendix I.31 See Goodridge v. Dept. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Public Health, 798 N.E.2d 941 (Mass. 2003).32 See supra note 28.33 Gates, supra note 20 at Page 17(average <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couple counts from U.S. Census Bureau’s 2004, 2005 and2006 American Community Survey).34 Lagorce, Aude. 2004. “<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Gay <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> Windfall: $16.8 Billi<strong>on</strong>.” Forbes.com, April 5. http://www.forbes.com/commerce/2004/04/05/cx_al_0405gaymarriage.html (accessed May 2008).35 Shawn Hubler, Hotels Are Hoping <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Capitalize <strong>on</strong> a Gay <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> Boom, L.A.TIMES, Mar. 28, 2004, at C1.13


36 See e.g. Brown, Jennifer Gerada. 1995. Competitive Federalism and <strong>the</strong> Legislative Incentives <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Recognize <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>, Sou<strong>the</strong>rn California Law Review 68: 745, 772: How will <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> Affect Hawaii’s TourismIndustry?: Hearings Before <strong>the</strong> Commissi<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g>ual Orientati<strong>on</strong> and <strong>the</strong> Law, 18 th Legislative Sessi<strong>on</strong> (Hawaii1995) (testim<strong>on</strong>y <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Sumner Lacroix & James Mark).37 See Jung, Helen. 2004. “Gay <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>s May Bring Joy <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Tourism.” Oreg<strong>on</strong>ian, Mar. 5: D1 (quoting JoeD’Alessandro, President <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> Portland Ore. Visi<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>rs Ass’n as saying gay marriage would no doubt provide an“ec<strong>on</strong>omic boost” <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Portland as gay couples and <strong>the</strong>ir families fly in for weddings); Sarasohn, David. 2004. “Gay<str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>, Tourism: A Package Deal,” Oreg<strong>on</strong>ian, April 11: C4. (“It’s definitely having a positive impact, because morepeople are coming <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Portland. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>y fly in, sometimes with families, friends, children, whatever. I’ve talked <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>hotel people, and <strong>the</strong>y say <strong>the</strong>y’ve seen an increase in gay and lesbian cus<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>mers.” (quoting D’Alessandro)).Sarasohn, David. 2004. “Gay <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>, Tourism: A Package Deal,” Oreg<strong>on</strong>ian, April 11: C4.38 See Jung, Helen. 2004. “Gay <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>s May Bring Joy <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> Tourism.” Oreg<strong>on</strong>ian, Mar. 5: D1 (reporting that hotels inVancouver had atypically high bookings and Macy’s department s<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>re ran out <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> wedding rings during <strong>the</strong> m<strong>on</strong>th thatSan Francisco let same-sex couples marry); Knight, Hea<strong>the</strong>r. 2004. “Windfall in Castro: ‘Giddy’ Newlyweds Have BeenBo<strong>on</strong> For S.F. Neighborhood.” San Francisco Chr<strong>on</strong>icle, February 18: A1 (reporting that extending marriages <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> samesexcouples was “great for businesses as newlyweds throw <strong>the</strong>ir m<strong>on</strong>ey at <strong>the</strong> neighborhood’s florists, jewelry s<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>res,liquor shops, books<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>res, and pho<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> processors.”); Bly, Laura. 2004. “Localities Cashing in <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g>s.”USA Today, Feb. 27: 1D; see also Murphy, Dean E. “San Francisco Toasts Gay Weddings,” New York Times, February29: 3.39 Singer, <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>a. 2004. “Three Swank Cities are Becoming <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> Meccas for Gay <str<strong>on</strong>g>Couples</str<strong>on</strong>g>.” Bos<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n Herald, March22: 27 (reporting that wedding-related businesses such as hotels, banquet halls, florists, and jewelers, in Bos<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n,Cambridge, and Northhamp<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n have seen “an upsurge <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> 10 <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> 100 percent in inquiries and bookings from gaycouples” looking <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> marry); see also Szaniszlo, Marie. 2004. “P’<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>wn Set for Gay-Wed Rush,” Bos<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n Herald, April11:10; Belkin, Douglas. 2004. “Wedding Bell B<strong>on</strong>anza Tourism, <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> Industry Foresee Boom in <str<strong>on</strong>g>Same</str<strong>on</strong>g>-<str<strong>on</strong>g>Sex</str<strong>on</strong>g>Nuptials.” Bos<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>n Globe, February 26: 1.40 Singer, <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>a, supra note 39 at 27.41 Massachusetts General Laws. 1998. ch. 207, § 11. In 2006, <strong>the</strong> Massachusetts Supreme Court interpreted <strong>the</strong>Comm<strong>on</strong>wealth’s 1913 marriage evasi<strong>on</strong> law <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> forbid all marriages that would be illegal in <strong>the</strong> state in which <strong>the</strong>out-<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>-state couples reside. Cote-Whitacre vs. Dept. <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Public Health 446 Mass. 350 (2006).42 “California Travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>Impact</str<strong>on</strong>g>s by County 1992-2006, 2007 Preliminary Estimates.” March 2008. Dean Runy<strong>on</strong>Associates. Prepared for California Travel and Tourism Commissi<strong>on</strong>., page 1 (“In 2007, <strong>the</strong> amount <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> travel spendingthat supported <strong>on</strong>e job in travel-related businesses was $104,600.”). http://www.deanrunyan.com/impactsCA.html(last accessed June 1, 2008)43 Supra note 42 at page 1.44 California Domestic Travel Report 2006. September 2007. D.K. Shifflet & Associates. Page 57, Table 71 “Length <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>Stay” (in 2007 N<strong>on</strong>-Resident <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urists <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California stayed, <strong>on</strong> average, 4.15 days in California); and page 44, Table 13“Average Expenditures” (N<strong>on</strong>-Resident <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urists <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California spent, <strong>on</strong> average, $163.8 per pers<strong>on</strong> per day).www.visitcalifornia.com/media/uploads/files/CAYE2006DomesticTravelReport-Final.pdf (accessed May 31, 2008.44 <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Wedding Report. Industry Report-US Only-Total Spending Report. Total Spending by Year. http://www.<strong>the</strong>weddingreport.com/wmdb/index.cfm?acti<strong>on</strong>=db.viewdetail&func=2.1 (last accessed June 1, 2008). Here we use <strong>the</strong>three year average for 2008 <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2010.46 California City and County Sales and Use Tax Rates. California State Board <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Equalizati<strong>on</strong>. April 1, 2007.Publicati<strong>on</strong> No. 71 • LDA. pages 4-17, Table “Cities, Counties, and Tax Rates; http://www.boe.ca.gov/pdf/pub71.pdf(last accessed <strong>on</strong> June 1, 2008) (for state and local sales taxes by county); “California Travel <str<strong>on</strong>g>Impact</str<strong>on</strong>g>s by County1992-2006, 2007 Preliminary Estimates.” March 2008. Dean Runy<strong>on</strong> Associates. Prepared for California Travel andTourism Commissi<strong>on</strong>., page 87, “California Occupancy Tax by County.” http://www.deanrunyan.com/impactsCA.html(last accessed June 1, 2008) (average transient occupancy taxes by county).48 We apply <strong>the</strong> weighted average for <strong>the</strong> transient occupancy tax rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> each couples <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urismspending that is likely <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> be used <strong>on</strong> accommodati<strong>on</strong>s, 14.6%. California Domestic Travel Report 2006. September2007. D.K. Shifflet & Associates. Page 46, Table 15 “Proporti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Total Expenditures” (in 2007 N<strong>on</strong>-Resident<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urists <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> California spent 14.6% <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>ir spending <strong>on</strong> accommodati<strong>on</strong>s); http://www.visitcalifornia.com/media/uploads/files/CAYE2006DomesticTravelReport-Final.pdf (last accessed May 31, 2008. We apply <strong>the</strong> weighted averagefor <strong>the</strong> state and local sales tax <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> remaining wedding and <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>urism spending for <strong>the</strong>se couples. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>same-sex couples living in each California county was generated by Senior Research Fellow Gary Gates <strong>on</strong> May 30,2008, using <strong>the</strong> most recent American Community Survey data available.14


49 <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> Wedding Report. Industry Report-California-State -Total Spending Report. Total Spending by Year (2008:$29,628, 2009: $30,570, $2010 $31,542) http://www.<strong>the</strong>weddingreport.com/wmdb/index.cfm?acti<strong>on</strong>=db.viewdetail&func=2.1 (last accessed June 1, 2008). Here we use <strong>the</strong> three year average for 2008 <str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g> 2010.50 <str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> License fees were obtained from each <strong>the</strong> website <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> each county in California <strong>on</strong> May 30 and 31, 2008.<str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> percentage <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> same-sex couples living in each California county was generated by Senior Research Fellow GaryGates <strong>on</strong> May 30, 2008, using <strong>the</strong> most recent American Community Survey data available.51 See e.g. supra notes 15-17.52 See California Government Code Sec. 26840 et. seq.53 Website <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Internal Services Agency/County Clerk Recorder, County <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Sacramen<str<strong>on</strong>g>to</str<strong>on</strong>g>, “<str<strong>on</strong>g>Marriage</str<strong>on</strong>g> License Informati<strong>on</strong>”http://www.ccr.saccounty.net/MARFAQ.asp (last accessed <strong>on</strong> June 1, 2008.)54 Comm<strong>on</strong>wealth <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Massachusetts, Registry <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Vital Records and Statistics, Table 1 <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> statistical report dated May16, 2007. Because marriages began in <strong>the</strong> middle <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> year 2004, <strong>the</strong> proporti<strong>on</strong>s listed here by year areapproximate.15

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