Radiology in 2020 - Aaarad.org

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The existence of strategic risk is a function of theunpredictability of the future. Consequently, managingstrategic risk cannot hinge on improved prediction.However, it is possible to bound the range of possiblefutures that one might face. This is best done withscenarios.By creating a number of scenarios that define the“possibility space” over a relevant time horizon, one cancreate a framework for discussing the future withouthaving to stake future success on guessing right.The Strategy ParadoxM. Raynor
Scenarios• The goal is to define a few scenarios thatmake a difference to decision makers• A good scenario will lead us to betterquestions• A good scenario will lead us to sustainedappropriate action and reaction“STORIES STICK”
Page 1 and 2: Radiology 2020A Guiding Look AheadN
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Page 9 and 10: Healthcare & Radiology 1996“Radio
Page 11 and 12: 1996 Predictions of the Future“Th
Page 13 and 14: “Study the past if youwould defin
Page 15 and 16: Predictions and StrategyDid notmoti
Page 17 and 18: Predictions and Strategy“Radiolog
Page 19 and 20: Predictions and Strategy“The futu
Page 21 and 22: When it comes to makingpredictions
Page 23 and 24: Punctuated Equilibriumpunctuationch
Page 25 and 26: Change is a “Step‐Function”
Page 27 and 28: And One of Prediction• When does
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Page 31: Environmental Influences• Healthc
Page 35 and 36: Scenario I“Use the Forces”• T
Page 37 and 38: Scenario I“Use the Forces”• T
Page 39 and 40: Scenario I“Use the Forces”• S
Page 41 and 42: Scenario I“Use the Forces”• I
Page 43 and 44: Scenario II“Moving on up”• Wi
Page 45 and 46: Scenario II“Moving on up”• Th
Page 47 and 48: Scenario II“Moving on up”• To
Page 49 and 50: Scenario II“Moving on up”• Wh
Page 51 and 52: Scenario IIIReverse Polarity• Hos
Page 53 and 54: Potential Futures…not future• L
Page 55 and 56: End with questions not answers• W
Page 57 and 58: Questions• What should our strate
Page 59 and 60: The future is a range of possible o
Page 61 and 62: modern portfolio theorydiversificat
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Page 67 and 68: Jon covers IT and we should be the
Page 69 and 70: Marty says since 1988 marty has sai
Page 71: the healthcare states a directions
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