CC Vulnerability Assessment - Souris FINAL Combined.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe communities of Souris and Souris West have worked, in partnership with the Prince Edward IslandDepartment of Environment, Labour and Justice, to assess climate change risk and vulnerability. Thepurpose of this assessment was to identify and discuss the impacts of a changing climate on thecommunities of Souris and Souris West, and to consider possible means to lessen these effects (developadaptation strategies for the future). Coastal hazards (storms, erosion, and flooding) were the focus ofthis assessment.Climate change refers to a shift in average weather over time. While climate has been changingthroughout the history of the planet, the warming of the atmosphere is now occurring at a much fasterrate due to increased human activity around the globe. Climate change is expected to bring warmertemperatures, more rainfall, rising seas, and more intense storms.Residents of Souris and Souris West have a great deal of experience dealing with coastal storms,erosion, and flooding. In recent years, they have noticed more frequent and intense storms. TheColville Bay coastline, from the western boundary of Souris West to the eastern boundary of the town ofSouris, has seen substantial erosion. Erosion is also occurring along the Souris River shoreline, north ofthe Souris Causeway. Rates of erosion have increased over the past 10 years. Low-lying parts of thecommunity (Souris Causeway, west Colville Bay, and Sheep Pond Road) have experienced flooding.Sea level rise and extreme storm surge levels are both expected to become more severe. Sea level isexpected to rise by 1 m (3 feet) by the end of this century. Storm surges will ride on top of rising seas,causing even more extensive flooding. These changes will have impacts on the causeway, wharf,roadways, and other important infrastructure.Toward the end of this century, average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 4 °C (above 1980levels). A longer growing season and a reduction in sea ice are a few of the changes likely to impactlocal crop production and erosion rates. This will make the coastline even more vulnerable to damage,as there will be less sea ice to protect it from waves. More erosion is likely (perhaps 1.5 to 2 times thecurrent rates). Over the same time period, annual precipitation is expected to rise by 7%, with morerain and less snow. Intense rainfall events are likely to further increase run-off in the area and reducewater quality in the Souris River.Climate change will undoubtedly have impacts on local residents, businesses, and infrastructure.Planning now can help to minimize damage in the future. Souris and Souris West should consideradaptation options such as the incorporation of climate change into their Emergency Management Plan,restriction of coastal development, increased coastal monitoring, and assessment of communityinfrastructure.v
TABLE OF CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................... iSTORIES OF WEATHER AND CHANGE ..................................................................................... iiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... vLIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... viiLIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... viiiKEY TERMS ............................................................................................................................ ix1. Background...................................................................................................................... 1A. What is a Vulnerability Assessment? .......................................................................................... 2B. Why Does Souris Need a Vulnerability Assessment? .................................................................. 2C. How Did Souris and Souris West Complete a Vulnerability Assessment? .................................. 32. Coastal Hazards ............................................................................................................... 53. Recent Coastal Hazards in Souris ...................................................................................... 6A. Coastal Storms ............................................................................................................................ 6B. Coastal Erosion ............................................................................................................................ 8C. Coastal Flooding ........................................................................................................................ 13D. Saltwater Intrusion .................................................................................................................... 154. Climate Change Scenarios for Souris ............................................................................... 16A. Temperature ............................................................................................................................. 16B. Precipitation .............................................................................................................................. 16C. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge ................................................................................................ 185. Projected Future Impacts in Souris ................................................................................. 24A. Coastal Erosion .......................................................................................................................... 24B. Coastal Flooding ........................................................................................................................ 25C. Other Potential Impacts ............................................................................................................ 266. Climate Change Adaptation ............................................................................................ 27A. Past Initiatives ........................................................................................................................... 27B. Adaptation Options ................................................................................................................... 281. Develop an Emergency Management Plan ...................................................................... 292. Create a Municipal Coastal Development Setback By-Law ............................................ 303. Encourage Provincial Land Use Planning Policies that consider Climate Change........... 314. Promote Responsible Agricultural Practices ................................................................... 315. Increase Monitoring of Coastal Hazards ......................................................................... 326. Create a Climate Change Adaptation Plan ...................................................................... 327. Assess Community Infrastructure ................................................................................... 338. Consider Strategies to Decrease Vulnerability of Existing Community Infrastructure ... 339. Increase Climate Change Awareness and Education ...................................................... 34vi
Page 1 and 2: CLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITYASSESSME
Page 3 and 4: STORIES OF WEATHER AND CHANGESouris
Page 5: was made to shift the location of t
Page 9 and 10: Figure 22 - Climate change flood ri
Page 11 and 12: 1. BACKGROUNDSouris and Souris West
Page 13 and 14: Many rural communities in Prince Ed
Page 15 and 16: 2. COASTAL HAZARDSFigure 8 - Storm
Page 17 and 18: Areas impacted by erosionAreas impa
Page 19 and 20: Figure 11 - Coastal change in the S
Page 21 and 22: Figure 13 - Coastal change in the S
Page 23 and 24: C. Coastal FloodingFigure 15 - Over
Page 25 and 26: D. Salt Water IntrusionThe Town of
Page 27 and 28: Table 3 - Climate change temperatur
Page 35 and 36: Sewer and storm lines are close to
Page 37 and 38: Water Quality in the Souris River E
Page 39 and 40: identified through this process. Th
Page 41 and 42: There may be some liability to the
Page 43 and 44: Fortunately, there are a number of
Page 45 and 46: • Public activities such as open
Page 47 and 48: APPENDIX 2Vulnerability AssessmentT
Page 49 and 50: APPENDIX 3Souris Coastline ChangeTh
Page 51 and 52: Figure A3-3 Close up of the anthrop
Page 53: APPENDIX 4Shoreline Erosion Studies
Page 56 and 57:
the base of the cliffs appears to b
Page 58 and 59:
APPENDIX 6Climate Change ScenariosT
Page 60 and 61:
Maintenance of parks, playing field
Page 62 and 63:
APPENDIX 7Vulnerable Infrastructure
Page 64 and 65:
APPENDIX 9Available ResourcesThere
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) Stream flow monitoringStream flow
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d) Sea ice monitoringChanges in the
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Aerial photos and orthophotos can b
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4. HISTORICAL RESOURCESPast events
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6. PLANNINGPEI Office of Public Saf
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Local Watershed GroupsCommunity wat
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