The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy

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Table 3: Variance decompositionafter 1 periodε z ε b ε l ε m ε cg ε tr ε τw ε τc ε τk ε i ε lg ε t Totc 8.4 81.2 6.1 1.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 100I 2.8 3.3 1.4 3.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.3 0.0 0.0 100π 59.5 2.3 15.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.8 20.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100R 24.6 10.6 8.2 50.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 100τ w 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100τ c 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100τ k 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 0.0 100ω 0.2 19.3 77.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 100T 4.3 4.9 3.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 85.2 100after 4 periodsε z ε b ε l ε m ε cg ε tr ε τw ε τc ε τk ε i ε lg ε t Totc 3.1 70.6 3.1 9.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 12.2 0.0 0.0 100I 6.0 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 88.2 0.0 0.0 100π 73.4 1.4 11.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.1 10.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 100R 39.5 9.5 9.5 19.0 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.0 19.6 0.1 0.0 100τ w 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100τ c 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100τ k 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100ω 0.8 14.1 70.4 7.9 0.0 0.2 2.7 1.2 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 100T 4.3 9.4 6.0 4.0 0.5 0.0 3.7 0.2 1.1 4.4 0.1 66.3 100asymptoticε z ε b ε l ε m ε cg ε tr ε τw ε τc ε τk ε i ε lg ε t Totc 19.7 27.4 2.7 16.2 2.5 11.0 3.8 1.6 2.6 11.4 1.1 0.0 100I 10.3 1.3 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 84.6 0.1 0.0 100π 35.9 0.8 4.9 10.4 2.2 12.6 6.2 3.6 3.1 19.1 1.2 0.0 100R 21.3 3.7 3.7 13.6 1.9 9.2 4.1 1.5 2.1 38.1 0.9 0.0 100τ w 5.9 0.2 0.7 20.3 4.0 22.1 21.5 1.6 6.0 16.1 1.7 0.0 100τ c 4.9 0.1 0.6 17.4 3.4 19.3 10.8 22.8 5.2 14.0 1.4 0.0 100τ k 5.8 0.2 0.7 20.1 3.9 22.0 12.4 1.6 15.6 16.0 1.6 0.0 100ω 19.6 9.6 47.4 9.4 0.6 3.7 4.5 1.7 0.4 2.9 0.2 0.0 100T 12.9 11.8 8.4 7.5 1.1 3.2 6.0 0.4 2.0 10.7 0.3 35.6 10046
49%Quarterly total public revenues (T)in % of GDP48%47%46%45%44%43%1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005T (ours) T (ECB-awm) T (Eurostat)18.5%Quarterly public transfers (Tr)in % of GDP22.2%18.0%17.5%17.0%22.0%21.8%21.6%21.4%16.5%16.0%15.5%21.2%21.0%20.8%20.6%15.0%1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200520.4%Tr (ours) Tr (ECB-awm) Tr (Eurostat)NOTE:The right hand scale, in the chart for transfers refers to the official quarterly ESA 95 series.Fig. 1: Quarterly fiscal policy series47
Page 1 and 2: Temi di discussione(Working papers)
Page 3 and 4: THE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS OF
Page 5 and 6: 1 Introduction∗∗ This paper rec
Page 7 and 8: In this paper we contribute to the
Page 9 and 10: The paper is organized as follows.
Page 11 and 12: the consumption-leisure intratempor
Page 14 and 15: The representative Ricardian househ
Page 16 and 17: positive (suggesting pro-cyclical c
Page 18 and 19: Equilibrium in the goods market req
Page 20 and 21: trend, we fit a linear spline until
Page 22 and 23: Overall, most parameters seem to be
Page 24 and 25: ill). 19 Impulse responses are for
Page 26 and 27: falls, and inflation do as well. Ov
Page 28 and 29: consumption and investment to each
Page 30 and 31: 7 Concluding remarksIn this paper w
Page 32 and 33: [13] Coenen G., P. McAdam and R. St
Page 34 and 35: [39] Schorfheide F. (2000), Loss Fu
Page 36 and 37: and of the capital accumulation equ
Page 38 and 39: and the aggregate resource constrai
Page 40 and 41: series using proxy indicators. In p
Page 42 and 43: T I 1 = general taxes on goods and
Page 44 and 45: Table 1: Selected prior and posteri
Page 48 and 49: Tax rate on labor income49443934291
Page 50 and 51: σ c1 2 3 4 5 6σ l0 0.5 12320γ1.5
Page 52 and 53: ρ z0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1ρ ε b0.2 0.4
Page 54 and 55: 0.8real interest rate0.4consumption
Page 56 and 57: 0.2real interest rate1consumption1i
Page 58 and 59: 1real interest rate−0.1consumptio
Page 60 and 61: 1.51output210.50−0.5consumptionin
Page 62 and 63: 210consumptionoutput10.50−1invest
Page 64 and 65: 1.510.5outputinvestment1.510.50cons
Page 66 and 67: RECENTLY PUBLISHED “TEMI” (*)N.
Page 68 and 69: 2005L. DEDOLA and F. LIPPI, The mon
Page 70 and 71: F. BUSETTI, S. FABIANI and A. HARVE

The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy

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