Climate Change and Water Management in South Florida
Climate Change and Water Management in South Florida
Climate Change and Water Management in South Florida
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<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Water</strong><strong>Management</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>South</strong> <strong>Florida</strong>Jayantha Obeysekera (Obey)Department DirectorHydrologic & Environmental Systems Model<strong>in</strong>gSea Level Rise Adaptation <strong>in</strong> the <strong>Florida</strong> KeysMay 10-12, 2011
Potential <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Impacts toSFWMD<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> DriversNatural CyclesInterannual(e.g. El N<strong>in</strong>o <strong>and</strong> LaN<strong>in</strong>a) toMulti-decadal(e.g. AMO*)Human InducedL<strong>and</strong> use changesGreenhouse gases->Global Warm<strong>in</strong>gQuartet of change:Stressors•Ris<strong>in</strong>g Seas•Temperature•Ra<strong>in</strong>fall, floods,<strong>and</strong> droughts•Tropical Storms &Hurricanes<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Management</strong>Impacts•Direct l<strong>and</strong>scapeimpacts (e.g. stormsurge)•<strong>Water</strong> Supply(e.g. droughts,saltwater <strong>in</strong>trusion)• Flood Control(e.g. urban flood<strong>in</strong>g,hurricanes)•Natural Systems(e.g. ecosystemimpacts, bothcoastal <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>terior)*Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation of temperature <strong>in</strong> the Atlantic Ocean
SFWMD White Paper, Technical Paper &Strategy• Two Important Questions:• Which decisions are likely tobe affected <strong>and</strong> could benefitfrom adaptation strategies(Type I) <strong>in</strong> the short term?‣“No Regret Strategies”• Which decisions are likely tobe affected but for whichadaptation strategies (TypeII) could be deferred withoutserious consequences?
Future Projections of Sea Level Rise:Polar Ice Uncerta<strong>in</strong>tyGreenl<strong>and</strong>(~ 2 million sq.km.)Antarctica(~5.4 million sq. km.)
Sea Level Rise relative to 2010 (mm)0 500 1000 1500 2000What is the future rate of acceleration?GlobalKey WestRapid acceleration dueto ice sheet lossMedium accelerationCont<strong>in</strong>u<strong>in</strong>g current trend1950 2000 2050 2100Year
FSUSea Level R ise (<strong>in</strong>.)70605060.0Plann<strong>in</strong>g Horizon (~2060)High RangeCGMFSUCGMCGMIPCCCGMBrowardUNEP (2009)5 feet4 feet•Resilience•Adaptive Capacity•“no regret strategies”•Adaptive <strong>Management</strong>•Alternative Futures•Cont<strong>in</strong>gency Plans79.04030203 feet2 feet19.22030.0NRC31.5Low Range1001 footNRC10.84.82.452030 2050 2080 2100Year8.47.0
Are we see<strong>in</strong>g more of these?<strong>Florida</strong> Keys(Monroe Co)7Photo Credit: The Nature Conservancy
Impacts of Ris<strong>in</strong>g Seas:Flood ControlCoastal StructureOcean Side(tailwater)L<strong>and</strong> Side(headwater)
VulnerableStructuresPrelim<strong>in</strong>ary reviewbased on orig<strong>in</strong>aldesigns28 gravitystructures on theEast CoastSix gravitystructures on thewest coastMost vulnerablestructures are <strong>in</strong>Miami-Dade <strong>and</strong>Broward countiesPrioritized 3structuresS-29S-28S-27
Potential Impact of Ris<strong>in</strong>g Seas:<strong>South</strong>ern Everglades• Relocation <strong>and</strong> possiblereduction of mangroveforests• Forced migration of wad<strong>in</strong>gbirds northward• Potential peat collapse,coastal erosion, <strong>and</strong>redistribution of sediments• Sal<strong>in</strong>ity <strong>in</strong>trusion <strong>in</strong>tofreshwater marshes can:discharge toxic hydrogensulfide, cause coastal fishkills, <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease habitatloss
Ris<strong>in</strong>g Seas - <strong>Water</strong> Supply:Saltwater Intrusion
Saltwater - Groundwater Interface• Review groundwater monitor<strong>in</strong>gnetwork used to develop themap of the saltwatergroundwater<strong>in</strong>terface• Identify gaps• Identify utilities at riskLake WorthLantana
<strong>Water</strong> Supply <strong>and</strong> <strong>Water</strong> Conservation• Cont<strong>in</strong>ue look<strong>in</strong>g at opportunities <strong>and</strong>technologies to reduce amount ofadditional freshwater needed for watersupply• Look at opportunities touse reuse as a hydraulicbarrier• Implement waterconservation measures• Develop alternativewater supply options
Flood Inundation Tools – DigitalElevation Maps (DEM) Project• Improved support foroperations <strong>and</strong> projects• Hydrologic <strong>and</strong> hydraulicmodels• Sea-level rise, storm surge,dike-failure study• Ecological studies – plantcommunities vs. l<strong>and</strong>scapeposition, black-mangrovedie-off areas, etc.• Identify historical features –river channels, logg<strong>in</strong>gtrams, shell midden sites
• Flood ProtectionModel Development• Work<strong>in</strong>g with the Hydrologic Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Centerof the U.S. Army Corps of Eng<strong>in</strong>eers to develop asurface water/groundwater model. Currently themodel is be<strong>in</strong>g tested <strong>in</strong> the C-4 Bas<strong>in</strong>• <strong>Water</strong> Supply• USACE, DOI <strong>and</strong> SFWMD collaborat<strong>in</strong>g on thedevelopment of saltwater <strong>in</strong>trusion models for thecoastal belt.• West coast model under development by our BigCypress Bas<strong>in</strong> office
Questions!Recent cab<strong>in</strong>et meet<strong>in</strong>g of the isl<strong>and</strong> nation, Maldives
Estimated Timeframes for 1 to 3 ft SLRbased on USACE SLR Projection for SE FL RegionProjected Sea Level Estimated Time OccurrenceRise1 foot 2040 - 20702 feet 2060 - 21153 feet 2078 - 215019Table Credit:A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for <strong>South</strong>east <strong>Florida</strong> (<strong>in</strong> review). April 2011. Table 5.
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