HURRICANE SEASON 2012It’s That Time of Year Again:Hurricane Season &Annual Storm PredictionsBy Steve MorrellThe Best Hurricane PlanIn making a plan to protect and save your boat,remember this:“A bad plan carried out is better than a good plan notcarried out. Make your plan so you will carry it out.”Go to the SOUTHWINDS hurricane pages atwww.southwindsmagazine.com and learn aboutthe most important aspects of creating a plan toprotect your boat. <strong>Read</strong> the first article, “A Goodand Simple Plan for Your Boat.”It’s June 1, and that means the Atlantic hurricane seasonbegins (it runs through Nov. 30). And again, the forecastersare predicting, but for the first time in manyyears, they aren’t predicting a heavy season, but one a littlelighter than last year. They have pretty much predictedstrong seasons every year since the two big storm years of2004-05. I am not making fun of them, but if they predictthat every year, they will eventually be right, and theywere—kind of. I hope they keep trying, but let’s all downplayit and take it for what it is—a very inexact science.They are great at short-term predictions, but seasonal, Idon’t buy it. They need more years under their belt to reallystart counting on it.Now they have—and unbeknown to me they couldhave been doing this for many years—what is called a“hindcast”—as opposed to a forecast. No, it’s not what itsounds like, but it is a good method of testing this year’spredictions. They take the current year’s calculations ofthings like sea surface temperatures, sea level pressure,winds, etc., and apply them to those conditions for pastyears and see if the number of storms produced will matchwhat actually happened. They’ve done pretty well whenyou look at the graphs for the last 20 years, but there’s stilla lot to learn. (If you want to see a hindcast graph, go tohttp://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts anddownload the <strong>PDF</strong> of the 2012 predictions, then pagedown to the graph.)I remember back in the ’80s and National HurricaneCenter Director Neil Frank was out there saying what theyall should be saying today: A big one is coming—be preparedevery year. Neil didn’t make annual predictions. Hejust said count on a big one eventually. Not everyone listened,but some did. The insurance companies didn’t, andwhen we finally got hit hard, they complained they weren’tgetting enough in premiums. Well—that’s because they didn’tsave up enough (they were playing in the stock market).They had decades of relative peace to save up for it. Nowwe’re all paying, even though we all thought we were payingfor it back then.What We Boaters Need to KnowWhat we here on the ground—or should I say, on the water—need to know is: What is the chance of us getting hit?Hurricane predictions done annually don’t tell you muchabout where the storms will hit, but about how many tropicalstorms will develop and how many of those will reach hurricanelevel and, of those, how many will be major storms.But for all practical purposes, the only thing boat ownersneed to know is how to prepare. I believe each season isunique in terms of whether or not you will get hit, and thatcan’t be predicted. Below are my predictions, created afterthe 2004-05 storm years, and this year, I print them again.And if you want a good plan, then go to our website’s hurricanepages (www.southwindsmagazine.com), and read “AGood and Simple Plan for Your Boat.” I believe it is the bestplan, because it is based on a simple fact: “A bad plan carriedout is better than a good plan not carried out. Makeyour plan so you will carry it out.”Our website hurricane pages have a wealth of otherinformation with links to other plans, information andweather websites, stories of success and failure in boatpreparation and even hurricane drink recipes (often essentialto calm the nerves, as long as you don’t overdo it). Ibelieve it is one of the best resources out there.Morrell Hurricane Predictions for Boaters for This YearYou can use these predictions every year for the rest ofyour life.Winds from 39 to 73 mph, up to 4 feet of surge(Tropical Storm)High probability: from a direct hit or from the outer bands ofa stronger storm. Easy to prepare your boat for.Winds from 74 to 95 mph, 4-5 feet of surge (Category 1)Good probability: from a direct hit or from the outer edges ofa stronger storm. Easy to prepare your boat for.Winds from 96 to 110 mph, 6-8 feet of surge (Category 2)Reasonable chance: from a direct hit or from the outer edgesof a stronger storm. Easy to prepare your boat for.Winds from 111 to 130 mph, 9-12 feet of surge (Category 3)Small chance: from a direct hit or from the outer edges of astronger storm. Easy, but even more preparation workrequired. You will likely suffer some damage, but you canminimize it enough that you can take your boat sailing afteryou put the sails back on.Winds from 131 to 155 mph, 13-18 feet of surge (Category4)—or above 155 mph, 18 feet and up surge (Category 5)Very small chance: from a direct hit or category 4 winds fromthe outer edges of a category 5 storm. This will take a lotmore prep work, but possible to survive with not too muchdamage if you are prepared and get lucky at the same time.If you don’t prepare and get lucky, it will be as if you didn’tget lucky, so prepare and hope for luck. If it’s a strong stormand lots of surge and you take everything off the boat youcan, you will have that stuff, like sails, canvas, knives,spoons, forks and miscellaneous gear, for your next boat.30 June 2012 SOUTHWINDS www.southwindsmagazine.com
The Bounty with historic River Street and the Savannah City Hall(dome) in the background. This photo was taken during theParade of Sails as the Tall Ships left Savannah.The Indonesian naval academy’s barquentine Dewaruci with historicRiver Street in the background. This photo was taken duringthe Parade of Sails as the Tall Ships left Savannah.Tall Ships Come to Savannah,May 3-7By James NewsomeCover: The United States Coast Guard Cutter barque Eagle leading the Parade of Sails as she leaves Savannah at the end of the festival.Once they were the most magnificent machines knownto man. Beneath their sails brave men toiled to usherin a golden age of exploration, the likes of which theworld before could not have imagined. New lands were discovered,empires were built, and wars were waged fromtheir decks. Legends were born, and for many nationsuntold wealth was realized.A century and a half ago, technology began to passthem by as wood and canvas were replaced by steel andcoal. One by one their tall masts gave way to a trail of blacksmoke and steam. No longer could they compete in theworld they helped to create. In 1819, the SS Savannahbecame the first steamship to cross the Atlantic, and the• Competitive Pricing• Quality-Rated Companies• Coastal USA, Including Florida• Caribbean & Worldwide NavigationFor quotes, visit our websitewww.BlueWaterInsurance.comToll Free 866-795-3704 - Fax 866-795-3707OFFICES IN JUPITER, FLORIDAgreat sailing ships’ fate was sealed. Today, there remain justa few reminders of the Great Age of Sail when seamen andtheir tall ships ruled the oceans.Just over 60 years ago, it was believed that the Tall Shipsmight completely disappear and become a distant memory.In 1956, Bernard Morgan from London brought together thelast of the world’s square-riggers and organized what heimagined would be a farewell salute for the Great Age ofSail. But afterwards, organizations of enthusiasts began tospring up around the globe in an effort to save historicalvessels and preserve the knowledge of sailing these ships.In the United States, the American Sail TrainingAssociation was formed to first organize Tall Ship races andSail through the winds of time inMYWAYWARDWINDSRiveting, inspirational memoir fromastronomer, teacher, traveler, sailor— James A. HooksHard Cover/Quality Paperback/eBookON SALE NOW ATwww.hooksjames.comNews & Views for Southern Sailors SOUTHWINDS June 2012 31
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