<strong>Metal</strong> <strong>Stocks</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Society</strong> – <strong>Scientific</strong> <strong>Synthesis</strong>5. Outflows from In-Use <strong>Stocks</strong>Figure 3.A schematicdiagram of themethodologyfor calculat<strong>in</strong>goutflows from<strong>in</strong>-use stocks.Outflows (if recycled) from <strong>in</strong>-use stock representa resource that decreases the requirementsfor m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g of virg<strong>in</strong> material (as wellas the associated environmental consequences).Although the amount of outflow (the “secondarymaterial”) that is supplied to smeltersand ref<strong>in</strong>ers is generally measured, the outflowitself is not, so must be computed.The outflow computation requires dynamic<strong>in</strong>formation on <strong>in</strong>flows over a number ofyears, plus estimates of the fractions of thatflow enter<strong>in</strong>g each of the major uses, plusestimates of the average lifetimes of thoseuses, as shown <strong>in</strong> Figure 3.It is important to mention that the potentialrecyclability of the several <strong>in</strong>dividual outflowscan be quite different. For example, the recoveryefficiency of copper from <strong>in</strong>frastructureis much more efficient than from electronics.In the recycl<strong>in</strong>g report of this work<strong>in</strong>ggroup (to be completed), these issues willbe addressed <strong>in</strong> some detail. In most uses,some metal is lost to the environment byprocesses such as dissipation or corrosion.The amounts are quite small relative to otherflows, however (e. g., Wang et al., 2007; Maoet al., 2008), and can be neglected for purposesof assess<strong>in</strong>g metal stocks <strong>in</strong> society.22
<strong>Metal</strong> <strong>Stocks</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Society</strong> – <strong>Scientific</strong> <strong>Synthesis</strong>6. Potential Usersof In-Use StockInformationM<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g Industries. The m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustries extractand concentrate m<strong>in</strong>erals. Their operationsoften produce a number of by-productmetals as a result of m<strong>in</strong>eral associations <strong>in</strong>the ore. The <strong>in</strong>terest of this sector is primarily<strong>in</strong> the susta<strong>in</strong>ability of metal markets and<strong>in</strong> the future demand for virg<strong>in</strong> metals, a demandthat is enhanced by <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g per capitaresource <strong>in</strong>tensity throughout the worldand reduced by recycled scrap that can substitutefor virg<strong>in</strong> metal. Perspectives potentiallyuseful to these <strong>in</strong>dustries <strong>in</strong>clude metal<strong>in</strong>-use stock estimates to measure the stockof metal required to deliver any given serviceto a population, and the creation of scenariosof potential metal demand based on differentassumptions of technology choice, populationgrowth, and other relevant parameters suchas the substitution for certa<strong>in</strong> major uses ofthe metal by other metals or manmade materials(as <strong>in</strong> the substitution of copper electricalwire by alum<strong>in</strong>ium wire). The paucity of<strong>in</strong>-use stock estimates, a lack of metal demandscenarios, and the absence of stockdiscard scenarios have to date preventedthese <strong>in</strong>dustries from utiliz<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>-use stock<strong>in</strong>formation <strong>in</strong> these ways. All these considerationsapply as well to countries for whichm<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g is an important part of the nationaleconomy, especially if the m<strong>in</strong>es are undergovernmental control.<strong>Metal</strong> Production Industries. These <strong>in</strong>dustriesproduce metal from either ore or recycledscrap <strong>in</strong>to metal of desired purity. Theycould benefit from scenarios of discards fromstock <strong>in</strong> use, especially if the form of themetal (alloy, coated metal, etc.) were part ofthe scenario. Current <strong>in</strong>-use stock studiesprovide the basis for scenario development,but the analyses rema<strong>in</strong> to be done.Waste Management and Scrap Industries.The primary function of the waste managementand scrap <strong>in</strong>dustries is to recover metalsand m<strong>in</strong>imize their loss to the environment.The factors determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g which path ametal might take <strong>in</strong>clude the concentrationand speciation of metal <strong>in</strong> discarded goods,the ease of separation and concentration,and by what manner the metal is discarded(separated or mixed). Thus, waste managementand scrap <strong>in</strong>dustries have as their basic<strong>in</strong>puts materials which are spatially-heterogeneousand that embody a significantamount of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty with regard to materialcontent and tim<strong>in</strong>g of discard. Here, <strong>in</strong>-usestock <strong>in</strong>formation <strong>in</strong> itself is not of value here,but discard scenarios l<strong>in</strong>ked to <strong>in</strong>-use stockwith relatively high temporal and spatial resolutioncould be.Public Health and Environmental Agencies.Unlike the potential users discussed above,who are concerned with the quantity andform of metals recovered at discard, theseagencies are concerned with the quantity andform of metals that are discarded or dissipatedand not recovered. As with the waste management<strong>in</strong>dustries, they would value discardscenarios with high spatial resolution, <strong>in</strong> orderto predict effects on public health and/orthe environment.Public Policy Organizations. These organizationsare diverse, with many different goals.Economic and national security policy-makersare often concerned with hav<strong>in</strong>g adequatescrap supply for certa<strong>in</strong> metals <strong>in</strong> the caseof disruption of trade <strong>in</strong> either metal commoditiesor f<strong>in</strong>al goods conta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g metals.Environmental policy-makers, at least <strong>in</strong> thecontext of resource efficiency, are concernedwith promot<strong>in</strong>g the environmental benefitsof metal recycl<strong>in</strong>g, a goal that would be betterenabled by discard data and/or scenarioswith high spatial resolution.23