9 status of rice production system in assam: a research ... - NCAP

The objectives of the paper are to understand the evolution of rice productionsystem since independence, examine the modern technological scenarioin different agro-ecosystems, test the hypothesis of inter-zonal disparitiesof performance of rice technology and to identify the policy interventions inagriculture.The relevant data from secondary sources have been utilized in the presentstudy. Various publications and issues of Directorate of Economics andStatistics, Government of Assam and Government of India, CMIE, Ministryof Rural Areas and Employment and CRRI, Cuttack have been majorsources of secondary data.This paper has been broadly divided into two sections. The first sectionprovides the trends, growth and instability, cropping pattern, the status ofimproved technology, yield gaps, risk in rice and rice research at the statelevel. The second section presents the disaggregate analysis of agroclimaticzones. The zonal analysis is carried out based on original undivided10 districts of the state. The disaggregate analysis contains the share ofrice by seasons, growth and stability and performance based ranking ofthe zones. An Agricultural Development Index (ADI)’ is calculated usingnine indicators namely, credit, irrigation, HYV area, fertilizer consumption,road length, rural literacy, labour availability, labour productivity and infantmortality and regressed with rice yield across the seasons. The factors areaggregated into the index for each of the zones as a unifying measure tosimplify the analysis. The indices (FI) of the individual factors are aggregatedinto ADI. The following formula is considered for the construction of theindex.(Value of factor for a zone-minimum value of factor over all zones)FI = –——————————————————————————————–Range of values of the factorADI = Σ FI) X N / 100, where N = number of factorsThe State ProfileTrends through 1950s: During fifty years since independence, the areaunder rice increased by about 64 per cent, while the production has morethan doubled registering about 116 per cent growth, mainly on account ofarea expansion. The linear growth rate of productivity is barely 38 per centduring this long period, which is quite low. Winter (kharif) rice dominates inboth area and production, followed by autumn (pre-kharif) rice and summer(rabi) rice. But, the share of winter rice declined from 78 per cent in 1952 to66 per cent in 1999, though the absolute area shows an increment of abouthalf a million ha. The area share of autumn rice remained constant whilethe summer crop has shown a quantum jump in growth from merely 0.2751

per cent in 1952 to 10 per cent in 1999. Summer rice performedoutstandingly in the last decade, recording over two-fold increase inproductivity level. The incremental productivity of autumn and winter riceduring the last four decades ranges from 220 to 420 kilogram per harespectively. The yield of summer rice is marching close to the nationalaverage at 1.99 tonnes. Should not the state adopt appropriate strategy toenhance the yield of winter paddy at least to the level of national average?This is also a research challenge to crop scientists to develop requiredtechnology for the purpose.Growth and InstabilityThe growth in agricultural production is essential for any economy,particularly in an agrarian economy where the food demand overstrips thesupply due to population growth. In Assam, rice has been the major food inthe consumption basket. However, the growth scenario of rice in the statehas been quite unsatisfactory. Considering the unparallel population growthin the state, the matter requires greater attention. Figure1 clearly indicatesthe fact that the state has by and large fallen in a situation of ‘food trap’ inthe post-independent period where the growth in consumption demand ofrice persistently exceeds the production growth for a longer period. Theresult, once a surplus state has become a net importer of rice from theearly 1970s. Though there have been some achievements in the production,especially in the 1980s, the process again has weakened in the early 1990s.In this circumstance, the state must intervene by investing heavily on thestrategic research on newer production frontiers so as to breakthrough theshackles of the yield barrier. Improved varieties, timely availability of seeds,infrastructural support system viz; irrigation, roads, electricity, market etc.,mechanization, integrated nutrient management and speedy extension oftechnical knowhow hold the key to future growth pathway. The future policyshould follow an integrated approach rather than often followed piecemealapproach.Between 1952 and 1992, the total rice area increased steadily reaching aplateau at 2.55 million ha and thereafter slumped to negative growth mainlybecause of decline of winter rice area. It has resulted in decline of absoluterice area in the recent years. The path of growth of rice yield has beenhighly uneven in the state (Figure 2). Until the mid-1970s, the yield wasstagnant at low level. The scenario has changed to positive growth in thesubsequent period, which reached the peak of 1.31 per cent per annumduring the 1980s. The growth rate of yield of summer rice however, is at animpressive rate of over 4 per cent per annum as compared to that of thewinter rice yield at 1.36 per cent per annum. More adoption of high-yieldingvarieties, expansion of irrigation and a rapid shift in summer cultivationpractices has improved the performance of summer and winter rice. But,52

this growth pattern could not be sustained in the 1990s. Fewer technologicaloptions and inadequate infrastructure support affected the recentperformance. The production growth followed the similar pattern as that ofyield. However, the slow down of yield growth coupled with negative growthin area resulted in declining rate of production during 1990s. The variabilityof rice area, production and yield in the state has been moderately low.Coefficients of variation during the fifty years have remained quite lowranging from 0.03 per cent to 6.26 per cent annually (Figure 3). The highestvariability was observed in production during 1960s due to rapid increasein the rice area and uneven yield trends. The phenomenon of stability atlow level of rice production in the state is clear indication of stagnation. Infact, the low variability, though a desirable trait, when coupled with lowlevel of productivity, symbolizes a sluggish nature of the performance ofrice in the state. Why does the low-level yield barrier remained unbroken inthe state, is another critical question?Compound grow4.00Rice Demand3.002.001.00Rice production0.0050s 60s 70s 80s 90sDecadeFig. 1 : Good trap in AssamCompound GrowProduction2.502.001.501.00Yield0.50Area0.00-0.5050s 60s 70s 80s 90s-1.00DecadeFig. 2 : Growth scenario of rice in Assam53

times [in the latest list of centrally released varieties for the states, novarieties are earmarked for the state of Assam (ICAR Annual Report 2000-2001)]. The non-availability of seeds of recommended varieties is anotherperennial problem.Although, the government invested to some extent on research on varietalimprovement in Assam in the earlier period, but now it must invest more onR&D programmes in agriculture. The ecosystems such as lowland, deepwaterhave been practically ignored in the existing varietal developmentprogramme. The deep-water rice (locally called as Boa) is important inmany pockets of Brahmaputra valley, thus improvisation of the productioncondition in this large-sized ecosystem is of urgent need. Most existingvarieties are of long-duration and a very few are resistant to pests anddiseases. Also only few modern varieties have the tolerance capacity tosubmergence. This is a serious issue considering the fact that most part ofthe state is ravaged by splashes of flood on a regular basis. Increasedcultivation of boro paddy in rabi season could be potentially revolutionary,which is steadily spreading in the areas of assured irrigation. But thetechnological innovation for boro rice system needs to be followed withincreased emphasis. The majority of the existing modern varieties aresuitable only for kharif (winter rice) and pre-kharif (autumn) seasons. Thereis also need for more short-duration rice varieties so as to escape excessiverain during maturity and/or harvesting of the crop.Table 1: Varietal status of rice in AssamVarieties suitable for No. of Resistance Average Grownvarieties to pests and duration asdiseasesShallow water 12 Poor 153 Kharif riceEco-systemIrrigated eco-system 9 Poor 131 Pre-kharif riceUpland eco-system 1 Poor 100 Pre-kharif riceBoro (Rabi) cultivation 4 NA 160 Rabi riceSource: Miracle rice, CRRI, 1995 and B. N Singh 2001Increasing yield as well as yield-gapsIncreasing the yield potential of staple crops has been one of the criticalchallenges to the agricultural research scientists. The biological scientistshave put-forth their valuable efforts in enhancing the yield potential of ricein the state to around 5 tons per ha. (in term of rough rice), nonetheless,the growth in biological yield potential is also stagnating during the last55

decade (Figure 5). Bridging the gap between the biological potential andactual yield in one go is an unhill task, but an effort must be made in thisdirection. A success in the effort will contribute at least an additional tonneof paddy per hectare in the state. Here the extension services would play avery important role for the success of the technology. Of course, for therealization of the on-farm experimental yield, a number of interventions areneeded particularly in the domain of input supply and other delivery system.Interestingly, although the rice yield is increasing gradually, the gap betweenstate average and the national level is also rapidly increasing posing aserious future policy challenge (Figure 4). Over the years, the gorge betweenaverage rice yield in Assam and India/ rest of India has increased fromabout 70 kg/ ha in 1970 to over 600 kg/ha in 2000. Increasing gaps alsocoincide with the poverty situation in the region. Apparently, there is highcorrelation between the yield gap and the poverty level (PlanningCommission 2000). Should the technological solution be integrated withthe socio-economic dimnsion of the problem? An introspection is essentialon the choice of right technology in the region. Investments in the areas ofinfrastructure development and input marketing would be of great help torevitalize a non-starter green revolution. More research on socio-economicresearch would be useful to thoroughly diagnose the cause-effectrelationship and advocate suitable policy measures to overcome this lag.A ssam & IndiaA ssam & re s t of India700600500Kg/ ha 4003002001000-100707376798285889194970Fig. 4 : Inflating yield gaps in rice (Assam Vs India/ rest of India)Rice and riskHigh risk of flood, low and static yield characterize the rice production systemin Assam. According to an estimate about 2.41 lakh ha of rice fields arechronically affected by the floods and about a lakh ha are occasionallyflood affected (Table 2). Moreover, large area under the standing crop56

500045004000350030002500Kg/H aT ria lA verage20001500M a x A tta in e d1000500A c tu a l075909599Fig. 5: The potential, actual and maximum farm yield of rice in Assamquite often faces varied degree of submergence. Heavy rains during Mayto August cause flooding and affecting the winter rice is adversely in theprocess. More often, the flood wave coincides with the maturing and/orharvesting period of summer and autumn rice in many areas and washaway valuable output. This has an adverse impact on the farm income andmore importantly on the household food security.The undependable input supply and fluctuating area under HYV add to therisk in the state. The Boro is an input, intensive crop, where timely irrigationinfluences the yield pattern. With about 10 per cent of rice area underirrigation in the state, the yield of Boro rice will be constrained severely.This also limits the adoption of HYV at about half of the total rice area in thestate. Installation of shallow tubewells in the recent years has facilitatedthe summer rice in limited areas, which needs expansion. Providing assuredinput supply, could increase in the adoption rate of HYV and likely to reduceTable 2: Estimates of flood-prone area of Assam (‘000 ha)Agroclimatic zones Net Chronica- Occasiona Total % tocropped lly flood- lly flood- flood- netarea prone Area prone prone croppedarea area areaNorth bank Plain 470 93 40 133 28Upper Brahmaputra Valley 480 45 16 61 13Central Brahmaputra Valley 295 16 8 24 8Lower Brahmaputra Valley 920 92 17 109 12Barak Valley 247 4 10 14 6Assam Total 2412 250 91 341 14Source: Hydrology and Groundwater Resource Development (1980)Note: The figures are the averages of 1968 through 197857

variability and risk of production. Hazell (1982) suggested that the increasedvariability in the production is not due to adoption of HYVs per se but anoutcome of instability in the input supply.In addition, development of rice varieties with stress tolerance capabilitiesto biotic and abiotic pressure must be taken up on priority basis. Aparticipatory policy environment by involving the local masses inconservation of rainwater is necessary for efficient utilization of waterresource. Ex-ante strategies such as share cropping, crop diversification,staggered planting for flood escape, income generation through off-farmemployment and other self adjustment mechanism need to be popularizedin the state. This requires long-term perspective plan to handle risk arisingdue to multifarious factors.Rice research in AssamRice research in India has been highly rewarding, generating returns closeto 30-50% (Jha and Kumar 1999). But, the agricultural research in easternIndia requires particular emphasis on boosting research and developmentefforts for rainfed (upland and lowland) rice research system.The basic rice research in the state, though far from adequate, has mostlybeen confined to the varietal development and improvement. Very littleattention has been paid to the crucial areas such as sustainability,ecosystem research, efficiency, marketing etc. There are few micro-levelcase studies at the village level or at the block level and fewer at the districtlevel. These case studies generally pertain to farmers’ adoption behaviour,gender, energy use pattern and impact assessment. The case studies areimportant for improving the production environment at the local level buthardly capable to address broader policy issues at the regional level.Studies at the zonal or regional level, based on homogenous agroecosystems,are very limited. Further, research in other frontier areas suchas credit, constraints, risk management, crop diversification, efficiency,marketing and trade, export and socio-economics are necessary. Theseresearch areas are critical to Assam in the context of fast changing globalagricultural order.Analysis by Agroclimatic Zones 4Inter-zonal pattern of rice production: Assam is divided into sixagroclimatic NARP zones comprising of ten original districts (Map 1 andTable 3). The Lower Brahmaputra Valley Zone (LBVZ) contributes maximumto the total rice area and production in the state while hill zone (HZ) the4This section considers the classification based on NARP report (1991). The section considersonly ten (10) original districts of the state.58

Legends1. Barak Valley Zone2. Hill Zone3. Central Brahmaputra ValleyZone4. Upper Brahmaputra ValleyZone5. North-bank Plain Zone LowerBrahmaputra Valley ZoneMap 1 : Assam by Agro-climatic zones (map not to scale)least. However, the productivity of rice is the least in LBVZ. The productivityis satisfactory in the BVZ, UBVZ and in CBVZ in the order of magnitude.Table 3: Zone-wise share of geographical area, rice area andproduction (1998-99)Agro- Geographi- Rice Rice Rice Rice Riceclimatic cal area as area (ha) production area as production yieldzones % of state (ton) % of total as % of (kg/ha)area rice area total riceproductionUBVZ 21 403512 660398 16 20 1636Hill Zone 20 123744 173860 5 5 1404NBPZ 18 454487 521369 19 16 1147LBVZ 26 900048 959017 37 29 1065BVZ 8 220294 386163 9 12 1752CBVZ 7 352037 554025 14 17 1573Assam 100 2454122 3254832 100 100 1326Higher adoption of HYV and irrigated area under rice and higher fertilizerapplication per unit area are contributing to the higher productivity. Higheracreage under summer rice is also a contributing factor. In case of LBVZand NBPZ, frequent occurrence of flood is hampering their performancepattern. The effect of the critical interaction among the factors is alsoresponsible for the inter-zonal disparities. By raising the productivity levelcloser to the state average in these two zones (NBPZ and LBVZ), anadditional 3 lakh tonnes of rice could be produced, which would potentiallyreduce the food deficit by over 30 per cent. Given the present resourceendowment of the zones, this option can easily be adopted if necessarypolicy supports are provided. Improving utilization of rabi fallow could alsobe a necessary policy thrust.59

Table 4: Zone-wise and season-wise distribution of rice in AssamAgro- Autumn Winter Summer 1999 yield (t/ha)climaticzones 89 99 89 99 89 99Autu- Win SumA P A P A P A P A P A Pmn ter merHZ 3 3 3 4 6 6 7 7 1 0 1 1 1.2 1.5 1.8UBVZ 8 12 6 9 22 25 22 26 0 0 3 3 1.6 1.6 1.8NBPZ 22 22 22 21 20 20 20 18 4 4 11 10 0.9 1.4 1.3BVZ 5 11 3 7 10 12 11 13 23 23 7 6 1.8 1.6 1.4LBVZ 48 37 52 43 31 26 30 25 42 38 38 34 0.8 1.2 1.6CBVZ 14 15 14 16 11 11 10 11 30 35 40 46 1.2 1.4 2.3Assam 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0.9 1.4 1.99Note: A- area, P- Production60

The share of rice area in the lower Brahmaputra zone is the highest, thoughit decreased in winter and summer in the period 1989 to 1999 (Table 4).There is not much change in the seasonal share in other zones. But, incase of summer crop, there are marked changes in the all the zones, exceptBVZ. Despite the fact that on an average about 17.0 thousand ha hasbeen put under summer rice in the BVZ annually and significantly highproportion of area under summer rice in NBPZ, the performance of BVZand NBPZ has not improved. The static productivity is once again the limitingfactor in the zones. The figures 6 and 7 show zonal pattern of changes inthe area.Growth PerformancesBarring a few exceptions, the growth performance of various zones in thelast five decades has been identical to that of the state. Until 1970s therate of growth in the rice area was impressive in all the zones except inNBPZ where the growth rates started increasing after 1970s (figure 10 &11). During 1990s, the growth of area showed declining trends and in somecases crossed the horizontal axis (i.e. negative growth). On the contrary,the growth rates of yield showed improvement during and after 1980s(Figure 8 & 9). Hill zone is again the exception, which has registered highestgrowth in yield during 1960s and is the only region that looks promisingduring 1990s. However, on the whole, the yield growth seems to stagnatearound 1.5 per cent in most of these zones. This endorses the generalperception that green revolution has bypassed the state even at the zonallevel. The decadal growth performance has been uneven and associatedwith substantial variability. The variability is much higher in case of summercrop as the crop is highly dependent on the input availability. As alreadyindicated earlier, many factor interactions are responsible for the inter-zonaldisparities in the performance. It is observed that the simplified index 5 form( termed as agricultural development index ADI) provides a fair idea of theprobable causes of the diverse performance of the zones. The ranking ofthe zone based on the index shows, as expected, that the flood-pronezones are highly disadvantaged and ranked the lowest, where yield is thelowest. Figure 16 to 18 sketches the simple relationship between the ADIand yield in six agro-climatic zones in Assam by season. A closer look atthe factor interaction at disaggregate level is needed to understand thecausality of the disparities.Conclusion and Policy IssuesThe rice has a historical significance and cultural relevance in the state ofAssam, apart from being the staple food. Despite its importance in every5kindly refer back to Data and Methodology section61

sphere of the agrarian economy, the performance of crop in the recentyears has been unsatisfactory, which made Assam a net deficit state. Thegreen revolution totally bypassed the state in the past, although somespillover effect may be seen during and after mid-1980s. The poorperformance is caused by lack of required infrastructure support systemand policy environment. The average yield of rice stands well below thenational average. The growth path has been uneven and perpetuating thepeculiar phenomenon of stability at low level of production trap, which isrequired to be eliminated. The sluggish growth of the crop is the result ofproduction trap. The supply of technology, infrastructure, material inputsare the important governing factors for the betterment of rice productionsystem, which are grossly inadequate at present. However, the sign ofinnovativeness of the farmers has been noteworthy, especially in the recentdecade. The rapid expansion of high potential Boro cultivation of rice in therabi season is a sign of improvement in the situation. Nonetheless, theyhave to be adequately nurtured through suitable input supply and betterpolicy environment. The calculation shows that by enhancing the presentlevel of productivity to the national average level, the state can produce atleast a tonne of additional rice annually. The neglected zones like BVZ andNBVZ together can produce about 30 thousand tonnes of rice, if theproductivity is enhanced.There are disparities in the performance among the agro-climatic zones inthe state. Broadly on account of the interaction effect among socio-economicand agro-biological factors has caused the uneven performance over thezones, which is rarely understood. That is why, the region with larger shareof rice area and production such as LBVZ, is showing dismal yieldperformance. Noticeably, the performance of the summer rice (boro) hasalso been uneven in all the zones and no definite pattern of growth isobserved, probably due to its high dependency on the input availability,especially irrigation.The results of the study suggest greater emphasis on the research anddevelopment initiatives, specifically on socio-economic and policy research.For the purpose of enhancing future growth, strengthening the informationsystem and development of comprehensive database at the disagregateecosystem level is highly recommended. Though there has been stagnationin the biological potential in rice, there still exists large yield gap of variousdegrees. Steady input supply and improving the knowledge disseminationservice in the state would definitely help in bridging the gaps. The practiceof cultivation of boro rice is in a budding stage in the state that needs to benurtured through adequate irrigation network and more technologicalsupport. This would help gainfully utilize the vast tract of rabi fallow andimprove cropping intensity. Reforms on the weaker input-output deliverysystem is also required for effective promotion of the system.62

100.0090.0080.0070.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.00AutumnWintersummer0.00HZ UBVZ NBPZ BVZ LBVZ CBVZFig. 6: Intra-zonal seasonal share (%) of rice area (1989 and 1999)100.0090.0080.0070.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.00AutumnWinterSummerHZ UBV Z NBPZ BV Z LBV Z CBV ZFig. 7: Intra-zonal seasonal share (%) of rice production (1989 and 1999)63

6.006ub5.00CGR 4.003.002.00nbhz1.000.001.0050S 60S 70S 80S 90S2.00Decade4.003.002.00bvcblbCGR1.000.0050S1.0060S 70S 80S 90S2.00DecadeFig. 8 & 9 : Zone-wise total yield growth pattern in AssamCGR10.008.006.004.00nbubhz82.000.0050S2.0060S 70S 80S 90SDecade4.003.00lbcb9bvCGR2.001.000.0050S 60S 70S 80S 90S1.00DecadeFig. 10 &11 : Zone-wise growth pattern of rice area in Assam64

20.0015.00hz10CV10.00nbub5.000.00Decade50S 60S 70S 80S 90SCV14.001112.00bv10.008.006.00cb4.002.00lb0.0050S 60S 70S 80S 90SDecadeFig. 12 & 13 : Zone-wise variability in total rice yield in Assam30.0025.0020.00ubhz12CV15.0010.00nb5.000.0050SDecade60S 70S 80S 90SCV1216.0014.00lb12.0010.008.00cb6.00 bv4.002.000.0050SDec ade60S 70S 80S 90SFig. 14 & 15 : Zone-wise variability in total rice area in Assam65

8070605040302010ADIWinter yield180016001400120010008006004002000cbvz hillz bvz lbvz nbpz ubvzzo n e s080706050403020100Autumn yieldADIcbvz hillz bvz lbvz nbpz ubvzzo n e s1600140012001000800600400200080706050403020100ADISummer yieldcbvz hillz bvz lbvz nbpz ubvzzo nes2000180016001400120010008006004002000Fig. 16, 17 & 18 : Zone-wise ADI, winter yield, autumn yield andsummer yield66

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