Deep carbon reductions in California require electrification and ...

Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2013) 014038a list of over 200 unique efficiency measures whilethe transportation sector adopted fuel efficiency potentialfrom existing national and State studies. Industry technicalpotential estimates were based on CEC reports disaggregatedby industry sector and end-use (process heating, boiler-basedsystems, motor systems, heating, ventilation, air-conditioning,etc).Electrification projections are based on stock modelingfor building water and space heating and for passengervehicles assuming aggressive transition to electricity-basedheating systems in buildings starting in 2015 and to alternativepassenger vehicles in transportation, respectively, with marketpenetration assumptions described in the supplementarymaterial (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/014038/mmedia).The carbon savings potential for energy conservationwas estimated using a simple adoption rate model of energysaving actions. From a database of historical non-energyactions, long-term adoption rates were estimated for a setof conservation actions in home energy usage and passengervehicle mile reduction, as well as a number of other measuresin diet, recycling, and consumption. Carbon savings asa function of time were estimated by calculating carbonintensities for electricity (CO 2 /kWh) and transportation(CO 2 /VMT).Low-GHG electricity modeling utilized a high-resolutionvariable renewable resource capacity planning model(SWITCH) of the interconnected Western North Americangrid. SWITCH used spatially resolved, time-synchronizedhourly solar, wind, and demand data to explore future lowcarbon electricity scenarios. Optimizations minimized thecost of power between present day and 2050 while subjectto reliability and policy constraints. Carbon emissions wereconstrained to reach 80% below 1990 levels in the year 2050.Biofuel supply estimates were made with all biomassdirected to liquid biofuels and resultant biofuel assumed toreplace oil-based liquid fuel. Biomass and biofuel availabilityprojections utilized technical potential assumptions for in-State biomass supply, biomass supply mix, biofuel yield, andlife-cycle carbon emission associated with biofuel production.Biofuel production was assumed to replace gasoline inthe transportation sector. Sources for biomass materialsavailability include earlier reports from Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory, the University of California, Berkeley, and theUniversity of California, Davis.All methods and key assumptions are described morefully in the supplementary material available online at (stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/014038/mmedia) .AcknowledgmentsWe thank the California Energy Commission for support. Thispaper reflects the views of the authors and does not necessarilyreflect the view of the California Energy Commission or theState of California. DMK thanks the Class of 1935 of theUniversity of California, Berkeley, and the Karsten FamilyFoundation.None of the authors have a conflict of interest for thiswork.ReferencesM Wei et al[1] Commission of European Communities 2007 Limiting GlobalClimate Change to 2 Degrees Celsius: The Way Ahead for2020 and Beyond (available at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/com/2007/com2007 0002en01.pdf,accessed 1 July 12)[2] California Institute for Energy and Environment 2012California Vulnerability and Adaption Study (available athttp://uc-ciee.org/climate-change/california-vulnerabilityand-adaptation-study,accessed 1 August 12)[3] Jackson S 2009 Parallel pursuit of near-term and long-termclimate mitigation Science 326 526–7[4] California Environmental Protection Agency Air ResourcesBoard 2012 California Greenhouse Gas Inventory for 1990(available at www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/appendix a1 inventory ipcc sum 1990.pdf, accessed10 June 12)[5] Williams J H, DeBenedictis A, Ghanadan R, Mahone A,Moore J, Morrow W R III, Price S and Torn M S 2012 Thetechnology path to deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by2050: the pivotal role of electricity Science 335 53–9[6] California Council on Science and Technology 2011California’s Energy Future—The View to 2050 (available athttp://ccst.us/publications/2011/2011energy.pdf, accessed1 July 12)[7] Long J C S 2011 Piecemeal cuts won’t add up to radicalreductions Nature 478 429[8] European Climate Foundation 2010 ROADMAP 2050: APractical Guide to a Prosperous, Low-GHG Europe(available at www.roadmap2050.eu, accessed 1 July 12)[9] Yang C, Ogden J M, Sperling D and Hwang R 2011California’s Energy Future: Transportation Energy Use inCalifornia (Sacramento, CA: California Council on Scienceand Technology) (available at http://ccst.us/publications/2011/2011transportation.pdf, accessed 1 July 2012)[10] Jacobson M Z and Delucchi M A 2011 Providing all globalenergy with wind, water, and solar power, part I:technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas ofinfrastructure, and materials Energy Policy 39 1154–69[11] Fripp M 2008 Optimal investment in wind and solar power inCalifornia PhD Dissertation University of CaliforniaEnergy and Resources Group[12] Nelson J, Johnston J, Mileva A, Matthias Fripp M, Hoffman I,Petros-Good A, Blanco C and Kammen D M 2012High-resolution modeling of the western North Americanpower system demonstrates low-cost and low-GHG futuresEnergy Policy 43 436–47[13] Fripp M 2012 SWITCH: a planning tool for power systemswith large shares of intermittent renewable energy Environ.Sci. 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