Adaptation of water resources management to climate change

MEDITERRANEAN VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGEThe consensus of the Mediterranean Dialogue on Water, Wetlands and Climate Change, held inDecember 2002, was that climate variability will increase in the future. Current pressures on waterregimes will intensify, leaving little room to manoeuvre, especially in drought situations.Morocco and Tunisia are particularly susceptible to drought, and increasing climate variability isexpected to exacerbate water scarcity, soil erosion and wetland degradation. In Cyprus, where rainfallhas decreased 1 mm/year over the last century and mean temperatures have increased by 0.5°C,water availability has gone down by 40% from the estimates made in 1970. In the water scarceregions of Turkey, climate change threatens to accelerate desertification. In Tunisia, studies to developwater resources assume a stable climate. The key challenge, therefore, is to incorporate climatechange assumptions into current water resources planning. In France, climate change models forthe Rhone Basin project more severe floods in autumn and winter and more marked drought periods.In the Mediterranean, the sector most likely to be affected by climate change is agriculture, sincethat sector utilizes a high proportion of the available water resources. At present there is a delicatebalance between water supply and demand in relation to agriculture. Climate change threatens todestabilize this. Changes in water regimes are likely to go beyond the limits of recent experience interms of quality, quantity, variability and extreme events. The changes that will occur are likely tovary greatly even over relatively short distances. A key challenge for the Mediterranean is to addressthis uncertainty in water resource planning and management.Rising costs of loss in assets due climate related events10