VTO Analysis Portfolio
VTO Analysis Portfolio
VTO Analysis Portfolio
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<strong>VTO</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> <strong>Portfolio</strong>Jacob WardVehicle Technologies Officevehicles.energy.govAnnual Merit ReviewMay 16, 2013Project ID: VAN000
<strong>VTO</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> Mission and VisionmissionvisionPlan, execute, and communicatetechnology, societal, economic, andinterdisciplinary analyses for <strong>VTO</strong>,EERE, DOE, and externalstakeholdersRobust transportation energyanalysis that speaks for itself2
<strong>VTO</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> Budget- Budget has beenroughly steadyaround $3 M for fourfiscal years- The portfolio fundsdata, modeling, andoriginal analysis- Laboratory supportcomes from ANL,ORNL, and NREL$3,500$3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000$500$0FY13 by activity<strong>Analysis</strong>Research,$640Modeling,$1,700FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13Data,$600(all numbers in thousands of dollars)ORNL,$1,165FY13 by sourceNREL,$175NRELORNLANLANL,$1,6004
Technology and Market DataDATAnow- Published Transportation Energy Data Book, edition 31- Track and publish xEV sales domestically and abroad- Develop database to test effects of economic effects on vehiclesalesnext- Continue updating and disseminating data sources regularly- Expand market knowledge with third-party data- Distill and publish robust economic effects affecting andrelated to vehicle sales5
Vehicle Modeling and SimulationVEHICLEnow- Calculate vehicle cost-performance pair meta-data- Establish <strong>VTO</strong> inputs for official EERE Low-Carbon Scenario- Facilitate DOE Levelized Cost of Driving (LCD) official ProgramRecordnext- Continue development of user-friendly vehicle characteristicsGUI and diagnostic metrics- Author and publish results and methodology documentation- Leverage vehicle characteristic meta-data into a family of spinoffpublications6
Example Results – Levelized Cost of Driving ($/mi)Gasol 2012 (Gasol)Gasol ICEV (Gasol)Dies ICEV (Diesel)NG ICEVPrivate View: 5-year ownership periodVehicle and Fuel Costs per Mile for Midsize Vehicles, 2035(Vehicle purchase price estimated as 1.5 x manufacturing cost) (2010$)$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.45 $0.50Gasol HEV (Gasol)Gasol PHEV 10 (Gasol)EEREVEHICLEGasol EREV 40 (Gasol)FCEVBEV 100BEV 300Dollars per MileVehicle Fuel Fuel Cost Range Vehicle Cost Range7Notes: Average distance driven per car-year derived from USDOT/NHTSA analysis, Resale value at 25% of price,7% net discount rate for future fuels expenditures, 2035 Results – 5-Year Ownership, 14,000 Miles, (22,500 km)per year (2010 Dollars)7
Example Results – Levelized Cost of Driving ($/mi)Gasol 2012 (Gasol)Gasol ICEV (Gasol)Dies ICEV (Diesel)NG ICEVSocietal View: 15-year vehicle lifeVehicle and Fuel Costs per Mile for Midsize Vehicles, 2035(Vehicle purchase price estimated as 1.5 x manufacturing cost) (2010$)$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30Gasol HEV (Gasol)Gasol PHEV 10 (Gasol)EEREVEHICLEGasol EREV 40 (Gasol)FCEVBEV 100BEV 300Dollars per MileVehicle Fuel Fuel Cost Range Vehicle Cost Range8Notes: Average distance driven per car-year derived from USDOT/NHTSA analysis, Resale value at 25% of price,7% net discount rate for future fuels expenditures, 2035 Results – 15-Year Ownership, 14,000 Miles, (22,500km) per year (2010 Dollars)8
Emissions and Environmental ModelingECOnow- Provide input to and publish DOE Well-to-Wheel (WTW)official Program Record- Research and incorporate facility/infrastructure cycle data- Further develop “GREET.net” user-friendly software platformnext- Continue expansion of GREET.net user-friendly GUI- Research and refine “back-end” infrastructure and facility data- Formally begin vehicle-fuel pathway water footprint modeling9
Example Results – Emissions (gCO 2 e/mile)ECO2012 GasolineGasolineDieselNatural GasCorn Ethanol (E85)Cellulosic E85Cellulosic GasolineGasolineCellulosic E85Cellulosic GasolineGasoline & U.S./Regional GridGasoline & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic E85 & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic Gasoline & U.S./Regional GridCellulosic Gasoline & Renewable ElectricityGasoline & U.S./Regional GridGasoline & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic E85 & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic Gasoline & U.S./Regional GridCellulosic Gasoline & Renewable ElectricityBEV100 Grid Mix (U.S./Regional)BEV100 Renewable ElectricityBEV300 Grid Mix (U.S./Regional)BEV300 Renewable ElectricityDistributed Natural GasNat. Gas (Central) w/SequestrationCoal Gasif. (Central) w/ SequestrationBiomass Gasification (Central)Wind Electricity (Central)Low, Medium & High GHGs/mile for 2035 Technology, Except Where Indicated30354436485851667676731001201101001501601701701701651802202102001900 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500Grams CO 2 e per mile430Conventional InternalCombustion EngineVehiclesHybrid Electric VehiclesPlug-in Hybrid ElectricVehicles (10-mile [16-km]Charge-Depleting Range)Extended-Range ElectricVehicles (40-mile [64-km]Charge-Depleting Range)Battery Electric Vehicles(100-mile [160 km] and300-mile [480-km])Fuel Cell ElectricVehicles1010
Example Results – Petroleum Use (BTU/mile)ECO2012 GasolineGasolineDieselNatural GasCorn Ethanol (E85)Cellulosic E85Cellulosic GasolineGasolineCellulosic E85Cellulosic GasolineGasoline & U.S./Regional GridGasoline & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic E85 & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic Gasoline & U.S./Regional GridCellulosic Gasoline & Renewable ElectricityGasoline & U.S./Regional GridGasoline & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic E85 & Renewable ElectricityCellulosic Gasoline & U.S./Regional GridCellulosic Gasoline & Renewable ElectricityBEV100 Grid Mix (U.S./Regional)BEV100 Renewable ElectricityBEV300 Grid Mix (U.S./Regional)BEV300 Renewable ElectricityDistributed Natural GasNat. Gas (Central) w/SequestrationCoal Gasif. (Central) w/ SequestrationBiomass Gasification (Central)Wind Electricity (Central)Low, Medium & High Oil Use/mile for 2035 Technology129590249010022233882112001551351303506005107507801070157015701810236022404510Conventional InternalCombustion EngineVehiclesHybrid Electric VehiclesPlug-in Hybrid ElectricVehicles (10-mile [16-km]Charge-Depleting Range)Extended-Range ElectricVehicles (40-mile [64-km]Charge-Depleting Range)Battery Electric Vehicles(100-mile [160 km] and300-mile [480-km])Fuel Cell ElectricVehicles0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000Petroleum Btus per mile1111
Market Penetration and Consumer Behaviornow- Coordinate 4 vehicle choice models (VCMs) for suite operationusing common input- Refine range-anxiety research and incorporate into models- Estimate market penetration scenario and provide inputs tovarious analysesMARKETnext- Cross-validate VCMs via suite operation- Incorporate 2 additional vehicle choice models for morerobust market penetration “triangulation”- Expand VCM dialogue by engaging with experts beyond theDOE community; compare and refine models accordingly12
Macroeconomic AccountingMACROnow- Update baseline scenarios to match historical and AEOprojectedfuture data- Expand tool set to novel analysis modes (e.g., off-highway)- Design and execute integrated, coherent macroeconomicanalysis scenarios examining and estimating <strong>VTO</strong> technologyR&D benefitsnext- Author and publish benefit metrics and methodology- Prepare and execute iterative analytical updates as <strong>VTO</strong> goals,targets, and milestones are updated13
<strong>VTO</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> <strong>Portfolio</strong> in SummaryModels:<strong>Analysis</strong>Type:DATAVEHICLEECOMARKETMACRO- The <strong>VTO</strong> analysis portfolio (left) coversthe full analysis space and includessome redundanciesTEDBxEV salesSRA database- Some projects (e.g., GPRA, below) spanall categories for a truly integratedanalysesAutonomieFASTSimHTEBGPRAintegrated analysisDATAVEHICLEECOMARKETMACROGREETMA3TADOPTVCMSEDSTRUCKVISIONAutonomieHTEBGREETMA3TTRUCKVISIONexpert input14
<strong>VTO</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> PresentationsTimeProject IDVANCategoryPrincipal InvestigatorProject Title9:30 VAN001 MACRO Tom Stephens, ANL<strong>Analysis</strong> of Vehicle Technologies andReduction of Oil Use and GHG Emissions10:00 VAN002 ECO Michael Wang, ANL10:30 BREAKWTW <strong>Analysis</strong> of Vehicle/Fuel Systemsand GREET Development11:00 VAN003 DATA Mark Singer, NREL Consumer Vehicle Technology Data11:30 VAN004 MARKET Aaron Brooker, NREL12:00 VAN005 MARKET Zhenhong Lin, ORNLAnalytical Modeling Linking the FASTSimand ADOPT Software ToolsUpdating and Enhancing the MA3TVehicle Choice Model15
<strong>VTO</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> PostersProject IDPrincipalInvestigatorVANCategoryProject TitleVAN006Anant Vyas,ANLMACRODevelopment and Update of Models forLong-Term Energy and Emissions ProjectionsVAN007Tom Stephens,ANLMACROGovernment Performance and Results Act(GPRA) <strong>Analysis</strong>VAN008Aymeric Rousseau,ANLVEHICLESupport for Government Performance andResults Act (GPRA)VAN009 Stacy Davis, ORNL DATAVehicle Technologies Data, Markets, andPublicationsVAN010 David Greene, ORNLMACROEnhancement of the Oil Security MetricModel (OSMM)16
Jacob WardVehicle Technologies Officevehicles.energy.gov
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