Urban Growth Monitor 2012 - Part A - Western Australian Planning ...

December 2012Urban Growth MonitorPerth Metropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury Regions© State of Western AustraliaPublished by theWestern Australian Planning CommissionGordon Stephenson House140 William StreetPerth WA 6000Locked Bag 2506Perth WA 6001Published December 2012website: www.planning.wa.gov.auemail: corporate@planning.wa.gov.autel: 08 6551 9000fax: 08 6551 9001National Relay Service: 13 36 77infoline: 1800 626 477Western Australian Planning Commissionowns all photography in this documentunless otherwise stated.This document is available in alternativeformats on application to CommunicationServices.DisclaimerThis document has been published by theWestern Australian Planning Commission. Anyrepresentation, statement, opinion or adviceexpressed or implied in this publication ismade in good faith and on the basis that thegovernment, its employees and agents are notliable for any damage or loss whatsoever whichmay occur as a result of action taken or nottaken, as the case may be, in respect of anyrepresentation, statement, opinion or advicereferred to herein. Professional advice shouldbe obtained before applying the informationcontained in this document to particularcircumstances.

Forewordiii1. Executive summary 12. Introduction 53. Tiered land supply assessment 93.1 Introduction to the tiered landsupply assessment 93.2 Tier one – land zoned for urbandevelopment 133.3 Tier two – development status of landzoned for urban development 213.3.1 Urbanised and non-urbanised land .................213.3.2 Urbanised area ..............................................223.3.3 Land use dynamics of the urbanised area .......233.3.4 Non-urbanised (greenfield) area......................253.4 Tier three – land use dynamicsincorporating local planning scheme zones 273.4.1 Urbanised area – land use dynamicsincorporating local planning schemes.............273.4.2 Non-urbanised (greenfield) area –land use dynamics incorporatinglocal planning schemes..................................313.5 Tier four – spatial distribution ofcurrent residential conditional subdivisionapprovals 323.6 Tier five – future land for urban development 353.6.1 Region scheme amendments –recently gazetted or in progress.......................353.6.2 Planning in progress.......................................394. Land consumption rates 614.1 Land consumption trends over time 614.2 Additional indicators of land consumption 654.3 Land consumption by sub-region 674.4 Temporal land supply 694.5 Temporal land supply by sub-region 734.6 Region scheme amendments and temporal landsupply 744.7 What population will the current stockof land zoned for urban development support? 765. Lots zoned for residential development 795.1 Stock of residential lots 795.2 Vacant lot size distribution 825.3 Length of vacancy 835.4 Demolitions 846. Subdivision approvals 876.1 Applications lodged 896.2 Applications under assessment 906.3 Conditional approvals granted 906.4 Stock of current conditional approvals 936.5 Age of conditional approvals 966.6 Active conditional subdivision approvals(lots on non-cleared agreements) 976.7 Final approvals 997. Appendices 105Appendix 1Forecasting land consumptionand temporal land supply,based on population projections 105Appendix 2 Glossary 106Appendix 3 Acronyms and abbreviations 112urban growth monitor december 2012

Urban Growth MonitorPerth Metropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury RegionsThis is the fourth edition of the Western AustralianPlanning Commission’s award winning UrbanGrowth Monitor. Since its inception in 2009, theMonitor has been the definitive report on landsupply within the Perth metropolitan, Peel andGreater Bunbury regions.The 2012 edition of the Monitor builds on thesuccess of previous editions discussing newresearch into the creation of vacant lots throughdemolition activity. Land supply around WesternAustralia’s more urbanised areas is now, perhapsmore than ever, a matter of great importance.Hon John Day, MLAMinister for PlanningDuring the current period of rapid localpopulation growth and global economicuncertainty, it is imperative that future landsupply management is backed by the mostcomprehensive research and analysis possible.The Monitor shows that there is a sufficient stockof non-urbanised land, zoned for developmentunder the Metropolitan, Peel and GreaterBunbury region schemes, to accommodateurban growth for some time. This buffer ofurban and urban deferred zoned land enablesselective rezoning in the future, aiding theimplementation of existing strategies andpolicies.These results also illustrate the value ofimplementing the objectives of Directions2031 and Beyond, which aims to reduce landconsumption, encouraging sustainability,improved transport and more efficientdevelopment in targeted growth areas.I commend the Western Australian PlanningCommission and Department of Planningon producing another well-researched andcomprehensive edition of the Monitor. Thispublication will continue to assist in achievingoptimum planning outcomes in the Perthmetropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury regions.iii

In recent years, Western Australia’s enviableeconomic growth, complemented byan expanding population, has providedopportunities for the State Government toembark on some of the most ambitiousdevelopment projects in the State’s history.New patterns of urban growth are emerging inthe Perth metropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunburyregions, and are backed by recent legislativechanges that will help to streamline theplanning process and accommodate a growingcommunity.Eric Lumsden, PSMDirector GeneralDepartment of PlanningChairmanWestern Australian Planning CommissionThe growth within our evolving state haspresented great possibilities, but also significantchallenges, particularly amid the unpredictableglobal economy.In order to support urban growth in a sustainablemanner, capitalise on emerging opportunitieswhile also maintaining qualities that aresynonymous with the Western Australian lifestyle,well informed guidance is critical.Underpinning the plans and policies that shapeurban growth is a foundation of research,modelling and analysis undertaken by theDepartment of Planning’s Urban DevelopmentProgram, which tracks land demand and supply,proposed development and infrastructure in thestate’s major urban centres.This latest edition of the Urban DevelopmentProgram’s Urban Growth Monitor, continues theexcellent work of previous editions, providingan informative update on land supply andconsumption in the Perth metropolitan, Peel andGreater Bunbury regions.As the Monitor helps us to examine urbanland use in Western Australia, I am certain thisinvaluable information will enable us to workeffectively to manage the continuing growth ofour thriving state.urban growth monitor december 2012iv

Urban Growth MonitorPerth Metropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury Regions1. Executive summaryThis is the fourth edition of the Western AustralianPlanning Commission’s (WAPC) award winningUrban Growth Monitor, which tracks and modelszoned land supply and land consumed bydevelopment for the Perth metropolitan, Peel andGreater Bunbury regions.In 2011, the stock of urban zoned land in theMetropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury regionschemes increased by 660 hectares. The stock ofurban deferred land decreased by 260 hectares,resulting in a net increase of 400 hectares of landzoned for urban development. At 31 December2011, the total stock of urban and urban deferredland in the three region schemes was 110,610hectares, of which 29,020 hectares (26 per cent)was non-urbanised.The largest stocks of non-urbanised land zonedfor development are in the North-west and Southeastsub-regions, (7,620 hectares and 5,880hectares respectively). The area with least nonurbanisedland zoned for development is theCentral sub-region which is all but fully urbanised.The total potential population, which theremaining stock of non-urbanised (greenfield)land zoned for urban development couldtheoretically accommodate, is highly dependenton the form of future development. This relates toboth greenfield and established areas of the city.The prevailing form of urban development inPerth and Peel since the middle of the twentiethcentury has been low density greenfield projects.If all of the remaining non-urbanised urbanand urban deferred land was to be consumed(without addition to the stock of land zonedfor development), as per the trends of thepast 20 years, it is estimated that stocks couldaccommodate a city of approximately 2.76million residents and would be fully depleted byabout 2038.improving dwelling density on future greenfieldresidential projects. If the Directions 2031 andBeyond growth targets are achieved, landconsumption would be decreased substantiallyand existing stocks of urban and urban deferredland could theoretically support a population of3.62 million and could last until about 2063.In the Greater Bunbury Region there areapproximately 8,900 hectares of land zonedfor urban development, of which 3,640 arenon-urbanised. Based on the average rate ofland consumption in the region over the lasttwenty years, this stock could theoretically meetdemand until around 2059.The estimates discussed thus far are basedon the existing stock of land zoned for urbandevelopment (as at 31 December 2011). Theydo not consider the continuous process ofregion scheme amendments, which replenishthe stock of land as it is deemed appropriate.When additions to the stock are included inconsiderations, estimates for temporal landsupply are extended substantially.The Urban Growth Monitor shows thatthroughout the past decade a significant stockof subdivided, vacant residential lots has beenmaintained. The number of vacant lots increasedsteadily from 34,400 in 2004 up to 45,400 lotsin 2008. This evidence directly contradicts theconventional belief that a lack of supply wasthe cause of the significant lot price increasesbetween 2004 and 2008.After the global financial crisis, the stock ofvacant lots was depleted for two consecutiveyears as subdivision activity slowed andpopulation growth remained high. In 2011, thistrend was reversed, with the stock of vacant lotsincreasing due to a jump in subdivision activity.One of the objectives of Directions 2031and Beyond is to reduce the extent to whichPerth and Peel rely on low density greenfielddevelopment to accommodate populationgrowth. Implementing this reduction will involveincreasing the level of infill in existing areas and1

Land zoned for urban development (urbanand urban deferred zoned land)• At the end of 2011 there were approximately110,610 hectares of land zoned for urbandevelopment in the Perth metropolitan, Peeland Greater Bunbury regions.• The net increase in land zoned for urbandevelopment in 2011 was approximately 400hectares.• 74 per cent (81,590 hectares) of the total landzoned for urban development is urbanisedand 26 per cent (29,020 hectares) is nonurbanised(greenfield).• Urbanised land uses include suburban areas(69,510 hectares); commercial and lightindustry (7,270 hectares); and planned verylow-density residential development (4,810hectares).• Non-urbanised (greenfield) land usesinclude undeveloped land (24,000 hectares);under-developed areas of very low-densitydevelopment (3,630 hectares); and existinglow intensity development on urban deferredland (1,390 hectares).• Approximately two-thirds of lots withconditional approval are located in greenfieldareas (equating to 33,230 lots).Land consumptionOn average, 1,008 hectares per annumwere consumed by subdivision in the Perthmetropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury regionsfrom 1991 to 2011.Land consumption rates have variedsubstantially in the 20 years to 2011. This is largelydue to changing economic and demographiccircumstances.There has been a substantial decline in therate of land consumption since the globalfinancial crisis. In 2011, 625 hectares of landwere consumed by subdivision; about half theaverage amount consumed per annum from2002 to 2007.Almost all of the Central sub-region (the longestestablished and most populous part of thePerth metropolitan region) is urbanised. Newdevelopments in that sub-region are thereforegenerally considered infill. The level of residentialinfill within the Central sub-region, has a majorimpact on the rate of land consumption acrossthe broader metropolitan area.All regions/sub-regions (excluding the Centralsub-region) can support many years ofgreenfield land development based on historicalaverage consumption rates. Temporal landsupply estimates range from 21.4 years for theSouth-west sub-region to 50.7 years for the Southeastsub-region.Each year, the stock of land zoned for urbandevelopment is increased as a result of regionscheme amendments. Since 1999, an average of361 hectares of land per year has been addedto the stock through the amendments process.In 2011, the total stock of land zoned for urbandevelopment was increased by approximately400 hectares through the amendment process.urban growth monitor december 2012 2

Urban Growth MonitorPerth Metropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury RegionsVacant lotsAt the end of 2011, there were approximately616,300 residential lots in the Perth metropolitan,Peel and Greater Bunbury regions. This consistedof approximately 575,280 developed lots and41,030 vacant lots (7 per cent).Broadly speaking, the proportion of residentiallots that were vacant was lower closer to centralPerth. The Central sub-region had the lowestvacancy rate (4 per cent) and the highestvacancy rates were in the Peel (20 per cent) andGreater Bunbury (13 per cent) regions.Vacant lot stocks increased by 32 per centbetween 2004 and 2008.After 2008, the stock of lots decreased for twoconsecutive years, but this trend was reversedin 2011, as the stock of vacant lots increased bythree per cent.Demolition activity plays an important partin creating vacant lots for new constructionprojects and in some cases further subdivision- particularly in the Central sub-region. In the2010/11 financial year, Department of Planningresearch indicates that approximately 1,910dwellings were demolished in the Central subregionand 2,310 residential lots were createdthrough the subdivision process.Subdivision approvalsAfter the onset of the global financial crisis,the number of lots in residential subdivisionapplications in the Perth metropolitan regiondecreased substantially, reflecting reducedconfidence in market conditions. Although thenumber of lots in subdivision applications in theregion has since increased, the total for 2011(18,420 lots) was still below the long-term (sevenyear)annual average (20,670 lots).Since 2005, the trend in the Peel and GreaterBunbury regions has been for fewer lots insubdivision applications. In 2005, applicationswere lodged for 5,990 residential lots in the tworegions. In 2011, applications were lodged for just2,660 lots.The decline in conditional subdivisionapprovals following the global financial crisiswas relatively short lived, with the number oflots granted conditional approval in both 2010and 2011consistent with the long-term annualaverage.The overall stock of residential lots withconditional subdivision approval was depletedsignificantly in the second half of 2011, primarilydue to an increase in final subdivision approvalsin the Perth metropolitan region.As at December 2011, the largest stocks ofconditionally approved lots were in the Northwest(12,770 lots) and South-east (10,440 lots)sub-regions.Unlike conditional approvals, the number of lotsgranted final approval in the Perth metropolitanregion declined for several years following theglobal financial crisis. In 2011 this trend wasreversed with 20 per cent more lots granted finalapproval than in 2010.The number of final subdivision approvals inthe Peel and Greater Bunbury regions is stillsignificantly lower than prior to the globalfinancial crisis. Unlike the Perth metropolitanregion there was no significant increase in finalsubdivision approvals in either of these regions.3

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Urban Growth MonitorPerth Metropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury Regions2. IntroductionLand supply is one of the most widely discussedaspects of the Western Australian planningand development system. Maintaining asuitable stock of land for urban developmentfacilitates healthy population growth and stableeconomic development. In the context of recentglobal economic uncertainty and rapid localpopulation growth, effective management ofland supply is particularly important and is a toppriority for the Western Australian Government.The term ‘land supply’ is used often, but indifferent contexts with quite different meanings.In its broadest sense, it can refer to the amountof available broad-hectare land, regardlessof whether that land is zoned or suitable fordevelopment. It is also used to refer to theamount of land that is zoned for urban, industrialor commercial use in a region scheme and isundeveloped. From a public perspective, mostbuyers of residential land use the term ‘landsupply’ in reference to the number of developedand serviced lots that are available to purchase.The Urban Growth Monitor is prepared as acomponent of the Department of Planning’sUrban Development Program (UDP) for theWAPC to fulfil the requirements for tracking andmodelling land supply as outlined in the Planningand Development Act 2005. The Act sets out thevarious functions of the WAPC, which includedeveloping models to better understand landsupply and development, and to promote suchknowledge to the benefit of any organisation orindividual undertaking land use planning andland development.This document is one of a wider range ofdocuments produced as part of the UDPreporting on land supply, subdivision andhousing activity (see Table 2.1). More informationon the Urban Development Program and landsupply is available from the Planning WA website(www.planning.wa.gov.au).The Urban Growth Monitor reports on severalkey stages of the land supply process, however,its primary focus is the availability of landzoned for urban development. The tiered landsupply assessment model has been employedto provide a detailed analysis of the stock ofland zoned urban or urban deferred within theMetropolitan, Peel and Greater Bunbury regionschemes.In addition to this analysis of zoned land stocks,the Urban Growth Monitor also provides detailedinformation and analysis on other key stages ofthe land supply process including:• urban and urban deferred zoned land supply;• selected region scheme amendments andtheir status;• strategic planning in progress;• consumption rates of urban zoned land;• how long our current land supply will last;• subdivision approvals and activity; and• the stock of vacant subdivided lots.5

Urban Development Program other relevant publicationsPlanning and developmentstatisticsAnalysis and forecastsState of Land and Housing Supply• Up to date statistics on land and housing supply• Available online only.State Lot Activity• Subdivision approvals submitted, pending assessment,conditional approvals granted, developers’ stock ofapprovals and final approvals.Land Supply & Housing Activity• Development pipeline including subdivision approvals,housing finance, dwelling approvals, construction, lotsales and rental market.Housing Industry Forecasting Group -dwelling forecasts• Independent commentary on the housing sector anddwelling commencement forecasts.Urban Growth Monitor• Detailed modelling of supply and consumption(demand) of urban zoned land.Developers’ Intentions Survey• Intentions of land owners and developers to subdivideand develop land for all major land uses.Space Geographic coverage State (downto localgovernmentlevel)State (down tolocal governmentlevel)State, Perth,remainder of WAState, Perth,remainder of WAPerth, Peel& GreaterBunburyregionsStateTime Publication frequency Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Annual (+6 monthupdate)AnnualAs requiredFocus Past trends and current status✐ ☞ ✐Future projections / outlook✐ ☞Economy and employment✐DemandfactorsSupplypipelineInfrastructurePopulation and demographics✐Property market activity – rentals, salesand prices ✐ ☞Dwelling finance and buildingapprovals ✐ ☞Land consumption modelling✐Zoning and scheme amendments✐Subdivision applications and approvals✐ ☞ ✐ ☞Vacant lots✐ ✐ ☞Building approvals and construction✐ ☞ ✐ ☞Land supply modelling✐ ☞Physical infrastructure✐✐Community and human servicesinfrastructureDevelopment and infrastructurecoordination✐Land use Residential✐ ☞ ☞ ☞ ☞Industrial✐ ☞Commercial and retail✐ ☞✐urban growth monitor december 2012 6

Demand, supply, future developmentand infrastructurePerth and Peel Development Outlook• Land and housing demand and supply for all land uses.• Physical and community infrastructure coordination.Regional HotSpots• Land and housing demand and supply for all land uses.• Physical and community infrastructure coordination.Western Power Network CapacityMapping Tool• Forecast capacity of the electricity network.Economic and Employment LandsStrategy: non-heavy industrial• Strategy to identify additional industrial land supply fornext 20 years.Space Geographic coverage Perth region andlocal governmentsof Mandurah andMurrayHigh-growthregional centresSouth WestInterconnectedSystemPerth and PeelregionsTime Publication frequency As required As required Updated biannually As requiredFocus Past trends and current status☞ ☞ ✐Future projections / outlook✐Economy and employment☞ ☞ ✐Population and demographics☞Property market activity – rentals, salesand prices☞DemandfactorsSupplypipelineDwelling finance and buildingapprovals ☞ ☞Land consumption modelling☞ ☞ ☞Zoning and scheme amendments☞✐Subdivision applications and approvalsVacant lotsInfrastructureBuilding approvals and construction☞Land supply modelling☞ ☞ ☞Physical infrastructure✐ ☞Community and human servicesinfrastructure ✐Development and infrastructurecoordination ✐ ✐Land use Residential☞ ☞Industrial☞ ☞ ☞Commercial and retail☞ ☞ ☞Legend✐ Overview☞ DetailAnalysis7