WhatHasWorkedFundOct14Web

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WHAT HAS WORKED IN INVESTINGskewed toward negative return months rather than positive return months. Theevidence [in Table 9] thus shows that the value strategy does not expose investors togreater downside risk.Low Price-to-Book Value Stocks Yield Sizeable Excess ReturnsNet of Transaction ExpensesIn a study published in The Journal of Economics and Statistics (May 1997) entitled,“The Predictability of Stock Returns: A Cross-Sectional Simulation,” Zsuzsanna Fluck (NewYork University), Burton G. Malkiel (Princeton) and Richard E. Quandt (Princeton)examined the performance of 1,000 large-company stocks ranked by price/earnings andprice-to-book value ratios from 1979 through 1995, and confirmed the findings of theprevious Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny study, “Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation andRisk,” finding that low price/earnings and low price-to-book value strategies yield sizeableexcess returns net of transaction costs and after adjusting for risk.In Table 10, Fluck, Malkiel and Quandt constructed a data sample from Compustat for theperiod January 1989 through mid-1995 consisting of the 1,000 largest U.S. companies as of1988, sorted and ranked into deciles based on their prices in relation to book value. Theyfound that the lowest price-to-book value decile, which was rebalanced quarterly, produced1.89% of excess return quarterly, or 7.56% annualized, over the average return produced bythe entire data sample. This translated into an average annual return for the low price-to-bookvalue decile of 23.96% versus a 16.40% average annual return for the entire Compustatsample. In addition, they found that the excess return persisted even after performingportfolio simulations which took into consideration transaction expenses associated withpurchases and sales. The low price-to-book value decile produced returns annually that were5.2% better than the sample and 8.0% better than the S&P 500 net of transaction expenses.Table 10a: Mean Return by Decile Sorted by Price-to-Book Value Ratios (1/1989 – 6/1995)(Low Price/Book) Deciles (High Price/Book)SurvivorshipBias-Free Sample 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10SampleAvg.Average quarterly return 5.99% 6.29% 5.45% 4.25% 3.95% 3.01% 2.77% 2.98% 3.65% 1.88% 4.1%Q* 14 18 13 14 10 6 5 6 9 8* Q is the number of quarters in which the decile return exceeds the sample average.Table 10b: Returns Net of 25 Cents Trading Costs (1/1989 – 6/1995)Average Quarterly Return S&P 500 Sample of 1,000 CompaniesLow price/book ratio 5.4% 3.4% 4.1%12
WHAT HAS WORKED IN INVESTINGCompanies Throughout the World: Low Price in Relation to Book ValueIn “Ben Graham Would be Proud,” a Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc. research report dated April8, 1991, Barton M. Biggs, then a managing director of Morgan Stanley, described a studywhich examined the returns from investing in the stocks of non-U.S. and U.S. companiestrading at low prices in relation to book value. In the study, all stocks in the Morgan StanleyCapital International database were ranked according to stock price in relation to bookvalue and sorted into deciles each year from 1981 through 1990, a total of ten years.Approximately 80% of the companies in the Morgan Stanley Capital International databasewere non-U.S. companies. The number of companies in the analysis increased from 1,178to 2,349 over the period. The average investment return for the companies included in eachprice/book value group was compared to the return for the Morgan Stanley CapitalInternational global equity index. The investment returns were equally weighted andexpressed in U.S. dollars. Table 11 shows the results by year.Table 11: Worldwide Low Price/Book Value Investment ReturnsPrice-to-Book ValueCategory 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 19901 (Lowestprice/book value)CumulativeCompoundedAnnualReturnReturn inExcess ofMarketIndex3.4% 11.2% 50.4% 14.8% 68.9% 39.9% 15.9% 37.1% 27.2% -16.1% 23.0% 5.1%2 2.9 12.2 37.4 7.3 58.1 26.7 15.4 28.6 27.6 -13.2 18.8 0.93 3.4 15.9 30.1 6.1 53.6 37.5 15.4 21.0 27.8 -11.4 18.6 0.74 5.6 10.1 32.0 0.6 50.3 44.0 15.0 16.5 33.5 -9.5 18.4 0.55 -5.1 10.8 28.6 -0.4 48.9 40.0 12.7 19.7 28.2 -7.9 16.2 -1.86 1.8 7.9 22.1 12.0 55.0 53.1 19.9 21.7 28.3 -12.3 19.3 1.47 2.3 6.4 22.5 2.3 60.0 58.7 12.7 21.6 29.0 -13.1 18.2 0.38 1.1 6.1 20.8 3.3 54.2 54.0 18.3 15.8 25.7 -17.2 16.3 -1.69 -4.9 3.7 20.7 3.5 57.6 59.3 22.5 19.4 27.7 -25.5 15.7 -2.210 (Highest-8.5 -3.0 21.6 -4.2 53.5 66.0 24.0 19.8 21.7 -23.3 13.8 -4.1price/book value)One million dollars invested in the lowest price-to-book value category starting in 1981would have increased to $7,953,000 at the end of 1990. One million dollars invested inthe highest price-to-book value companies would have increased to $3,651,000 over thesame period.13
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