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WHAT HAS WORKED IN INVESTING20.4% for the low price/earnings ratio decile versus 16.4% for the sample. In addition, theyfound that the excess return persisted even after performing portfolio simulations which tookinto consideration transaction expenses associated with purchases and sales. The lowprice/earnings ratio decile for the periods 6/1979 – 12/1988 and 1/1989 – 6/1995 producedreturns annually that were 5.6% and 1.6% better, respectively, than the sample and 8.4% and4.4% better, respectively, than the S&P 500, net of transaction expenses.Table 20a: Mean Return by Decile Sorted by Price/Earnings Ratios (6/1979 – 6/1995)(Low P/E Ratio) Deciles (High P/E Ratio)1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10SampleAvg.(6/1979 – 12/1988)Average quarterly return 6.32% 6.05% 5.24% 4.88% 4.75% 3.89% 3.99% 3.06% 3.29% 3.11% 4.5%Q* 26 28 25 24 23 13 16 10 12 15(1/1989 – 6/1995)†Average quarterly return 5.1% 6.48% 5.52% 5.04% 3.33% 3.1% 3.89% 4.07% 2.12% 1.9% 4.1%Q* 14 17 18 13 8 9 11 12 6 5* Q is the number of quarters in which the decile return exceeds the sample average.† Survivorship bias-free SampleTable 20b: Returns Net of 25 Cents Trading Costs (6/1979 – 6/1995)Low P/E Ratio Average Quarterly Return S&P 500 Sample of 1,000 CompaniesLow P/E ratio(6/1979 – 12/1988)5.9% 3.8% 4.5%Low P/E ratio(1/1989 – 6/1995)4.5 3.4 4.1Companies in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan Trading at LowPrices in Relation to EarningsJohn R. Chisholm examined price in relation to earnings and investment results forcompanies in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan in “QuantitativeApplications for Research Analysts,” Investing Worldwide II, Association for InvestmentManagement and Research, 1991. A data set, which was described as being comprised offairly liquid, buyable companies, was ranked at the end of each year according toprice/earnings ratios and sorted into quintiles. The study period was December 31, 1974through December 31, 1989 (15 years). Equal investments were assumed to have beenmade in each stock, and the stocks were assumed to have been sold after one year. Theresults were U.S. dollar results. Table 21, on the following page, shows the annualcompound returns for the top and bottom quintiles.22
WHAT HAS WORKED IN INVESTINGTable 21: Investment Results According to Price in Relation to Earnings in the UnitedKingdom, France, Germany, and Japan, December 1974 – December 1989Annual Compound ReturnsPrice-to-Earnings Category United Kingdom France Germany JapanLowest price/earnings quintile 33.0% 29.6% 22.0% 27.8%Highest price/earnings quintile 24.5 23.1 18.9 21.8United Kingdom Companies Trading at Low Prices in Relation to EarningsMario Levis, Professor at the School of Management, University of Bath, United Kingdom,examined the association between price in relation to earnings, and investment returnsfrom April 1961 through March 1985 in “Market Size, PE Ratios, Dividend Yield and SharePrices: The UK Evidence.” Using the London Share Price Database, the companies forwhich earnings information was available were ranked according to price/earnings ratios oneach April 1 from 1961 through 1985 and sorted into quintiles. The annual investmentreturns and the cumulative value of £1 million invested throughout the 24-year period ineach of the five groups is shown below in Table 22.Table 22: Investment Results of U.K. Companies According to Price/Earnings Ratios,April 1961 – March 1985Cumulative Value ofPrice/Earnings Ratio GroupAnnualInvestmentReturn£1 Million invested inApril 1961 at March 1985(Millions)1 (Lowest price/earnings ratio) 17.76% £50.62 14.28 24.63 12.60 17.34 11.40 13.35 (Highest price/earnings ratio) 10.80 11.7Market Index:Financial Times – ActuariesAll Share Index – Value Weighted12.48% £16.8David A. Goodman and John W. Peavy III, Finance Professors at Southern MethodistUniversity, described their analysis of investment returns from stocks ranked according toprice/earnings ratios within each stock's respective industry in their book, Hyper-Profits,Doubleday & Company, 1985. The authors ranked the stocks in each of more than onehundred industries according to price/earnings ratios within the particular industry itself,and sorted these companies within each industry into five quintiles based on price/earningsratios. At the end of each year, this procedure was repeated. The test period was 1962through 1980, and 2,600 companies were examined in each of the years. Table 23 on thefollowing page shows the annual investment returns for the five groups, and the cumulativereturn from this approach.23
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