Estimating increases in salmon population metrics from habitat ...

Estimating increases in salmon productionfrom restoration actions: a call forimproved restoration & monitoringJ McMillan photoJ McMillan photoPhil Roni, George Pess, & Tim BeechieWatershed ProgramNorthwest Fisheries Science CenterSeattle, Washington

Pacific Coastal Salmon Recovery FundRestoration in region

Many People Asking• How many more fish are we getting?• How much restoration for recovery?• How much before I can detect with monitoring?

Answer Typically GivenWell….we don’t know enough about fishresponse to restoration yet……..give me afew more years and I can tell you!

Published Studies Evaluating RestorationRoni et al. 2008

Goals• Estimating watershed‐scale increases in smoltsusing existing monitoring data• Estimate how much restoration is needed todetect an increase in fish numbers?• Suggestions for improving restoration &monitoring

Methods• Estimate mean fish response to common techniques basedon existing monitoring data• Scale up project level response to watershed scale.• Apply mean fish response to two different restorationstrategies in a typical Puget Sound watershed– Restore all– Historic• Monte Carlo simulation to estimate distribution of possibleresponsesRoni et al. 2010 NAJFM for details on methods

CanadaRestoration Types Examined• Log placement in small streamsWashington(30 sites; Roni and Quinn 2001)• Boulder structures in streams(13 sites; Roni et al. 2008)• Barrier removal(6 sites; Pess et al. 1998)• Constructed logjams(1 site; Pess et al. In press)Oregon• Floodplain rehab(30 sites; Roni et al. 2006)• Groundwater channel(11 sites; Morley et al. 2005)California

Increase in smolts by project typeMean Increase in Smolts0.900.70CohoSteelheadn = 6Smolts per m or m 20.500.300.10n = 30 n = 18n = 1 n = 30 n = 11-0.10LWD Boulder weirs Logjams Floodplain GroundwaterchannelsBarrierremoval-0.30Roni et al. 2010. NAJFM

Typical Puget Sound WatershedSalmon Habitat Typical WatershedStreams/Rivers (km)small* – inaccessible 13small* – accessible 126medium* 58large* 118Floodplain habitat (ha)Side channels existing 213Side channels lost 307Sloughs existing 77Sloughs lost 320*Small =

Restoration Actions Applied to WatershedSalmon HabitatStreams/Riverssmall – inaccessiblesmall ‐ accessiblemediumlargeRestoration typeBarrier removalLWD additionBoulder weirsLogjamsFloodplain habitatlost side channelslost sloughsGroundwater channelsFloodplain reconnection

Increase in Coho SmoltsScenario 1 –Restore All Habitat1200Mean = 285,302Frequency100080060040095%predictioninterval95%predictioninterval2000Estimated increase in coho salmon smolts

Increase in Steelhead SmoltsScenario 1 –Restore All HabitatFrequency9008007006005004003002001000Mean = 28,001Estimated increase in steelhead smolts

Pacific Coastal Salmon Recovery Fund 2000 ‐2009Restoration in region

Restoration Scenario 2 ‐Historic PCSRF 2000‐2009Restoration ActivityPugetSoundBasinAveragePerWatershedInstream treated (km) 56 3Floodplain hectares restored 53 3Culvert/barrier removal (km) 305 17* Only includes actions reported in PCSRF database

Increase in Coho SmoltsScenario 2 –Historic PCSRF1400mean = 17,270Mean = 15,02212001000Frequency8006004002000-15,432-7,669947,85815,62123,38531,14838,91146,67554,438Estimated increase in coho smolts

Increase in Steelhead SmoltsScenario 2 –Historic PCSRF1400mean = 1,448Mean = 1,19512001000Frequency8006004002000-1300 -700 -100 500 1100 1700 2300 2900 3500 4100 MoreIncrease in steelhead smolts

Summary of Estimates in Model WatershedStrategyCohosmoltsSteelheadsmoltsPre‐restorationsmolt production 230,501 22,386Scenario 1 –Restore All 285,302 28,001Scenario 2 ‐ Historic 15,022 1,195

How much restoration is needed to detect anincrease in smolts with monitoring?CohoSteelheadMean smolt production 230,501 22,386Minimum detectabledifference (25%) 57,625 5,596Habitat restoration neededto increase smolts 25% 20%* 20%*• 100% to be 95% certain

What???!

How Can We Improve Project Success?• Address limiting habitat or life stage• Improved design & implementation• Other restoration techniques• IMPROVED MONITORING

Increase in smolts by project typeMean Increase in Smolts0.900.70CohoSteelheadn = 6Smolts per m or m 20.500.300.10n = 30 n = 18n = 1 n = 30 n = 11-0.10LWD Boulder weirs Logjams Floodplain GroundwaterchannelsBarrierremoval-0.30Roni et al. 2010.

Improved Monitoring• Treatments and Controls

Monitoring Elwha Chinook Recovery25%

Parameters Other Than Smolt #• Survival• Pop. growth rate• Growth• OtherJ McMillan photo

Conclusions• More Restoration & or More Concentrated• Better Projects & Implementation• IMPROVED MONITORING & EVALUATION

Contribution by restoration type100%75%50%25%BarrierFloodplainIn‐channel0%Coho ‐ allSteelhead ‐ all

Contribution by restoration action100%75%50%25%BarrierFloodplainIn‐channel0%Coho ‐ all Steelhead ‐ all Coho ‐ PCSRF Steelhead ‐ PCSRFRestore Entire WatershedPCSRF –Historic Restoration