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Technical & Strategic Assessment of Aggregate Supply Options in the South West Region5.44 All of the changes outlined in above, totalling 3.11 Mt per year, would need to betransported significantly further by road than the materials that they would replace. Thisapplies equally to the landings of china clay sand and marine-dredged aggregate as it doesto the material supplied from inland sources, since the sea-borne materials would requireonward transportation by road to the market locations.5.45 Clearly, the precise changes that would occur under this scenario might vary from theassumptions outlined above, but the figures presented in Table 5.3 are put forward as areasonable approximation that can be used for the purposes of illustrating the kind ofissues that might need to be taken into account in a more detailed sustainability appraisal,in due course.5.46 It is also clear that the supply pattern indicated in Table 5.3 could not be maintained beyond2016 since, by that date, the reserves within each of the shortfall areas would have beenfully depleted. Thereafter, there would be the option of maintaining the status quo byreleasing limited new reserves in the shortfall areas (with consequential impacts withinthose areas), or further increasing the level of substitution from the alternative source areasidentified above (with corresponding impacts within those areas, in addition to a furtherincrease in the quantities being transported by road over longer distances)5.47 The sustainability implications of both the initial period, to 2016, and beyond, areconsidered in the following Chapter.Capita Symonds Limited page 39 June 2005
Technical & Strategic Assessment of Aggregate Supply Options in the South West RegionTable 5.3: Description of Scenario 2 (no new mineral permissions before 2016) incomparison with Scenario 1 (baseline), in terms of average annual rates of production.Groups of SourcesScenario 1Change (relative Scenario 2(Baseline)OutputRequired(Ave, p.a.)OutputSub-Totals(Ave, p.a.)to Scenario 1)required toachieveScenario 2)OutputRequired(Ave, p.a.)OutputSub-Totals(Ave, p.a.)(see Figures 4.1 to 4.3 for locations) (Mt) (Mt) % (Mt) (Mt)HARD ROCK AGGREGATE SOURCES: 0 0 0.00A: Carboniferous Limestone, Mendips, Somerset 13.344 +9.45% 14.61B: Carboniferous & Devonian Limestone, Somerset & Devon 2.483 +6.22% 2.64C: Carboniferous Limestone, North Somerset 2.622 +0.00% 2.62D: Carboniferous Limestone, Gloucestershire (Forest of Dean) 1.630 -35.21% 1.06E: Carboniferous Limestone, South Gloucestershire 3.231 +17.76% 3.8127.00F: Granite & Gabbro, SW Cornwall 0.990 0.00% 0.99G: Granite, N Cornwall & Dartmoor 0.552 +23.75% 0.68H: Dolerite, Devon & Cornwall, plus Andesite, Somerset 1.411 +9.29% 1.54I: Carboniferous and Devonian Sandstone, Devon & Cornwall 0.675 0.00% 0.67J: Carboniferous & Devonian Sandstone, Somerset and South Gloucestershire 0.0600.00% 0.06‘WEAK’ ROCK AGGREGATE SOURCES: 0 0 0.00K: Jurassic Portland Limestone, Dorset 0.429 0.00% 0.43L: Jurassic Limestone & Cretaceous Chalk, excluding Groups K and M 0.072 1.31 0.00% 0.07M: Jurassic Limestone, Gloucestershire 0.8140.00% 0.8128.68Sub-Total: All Crushed Rock 28.31 0 +5.93% 29.99 0.00LAND-BASED SAND & GRAVEL AGGREGATE SOURCES: 0 0.00N: Permian & Triassic Sand & Gravel, Devon 1.146 -34.29% 0.75O: Cretaceous to Quaternary Sand & Gravel, Devon & Cornwall 0.214 -10.91% 0.19P: Cretaceous to Quaternary Sand & Gravel, Wiltshire 1.854 6.63 -60.68% 0.73Q: Quaternary and Triassic Sand & Gravel, Gloucestershire 1.136 -35.25% 0.74R: Tertiary & Quaternary Sand & Gravel, Dorset 2.272-26.21% 1.68Sub-Total: Land-Won Sand & Gravel 6.63 0 -38.31% 4.09 0.00MARINE AGGREGATE SOURCES: 0 0.00S: South Coast Licence Areas 0.089 +624.9% 0.650.56T: Bristol Channel Licence Areas 0.4720.00% 0.47Sub-Total: Marine Sand & Gravel 0.56 0 +100.13% 1.12 0.00SECONDARY AGGREGATE SOURCES: 0 0.00U: Ball Clay sand, Devon & Dorset 0.142 0.00% 0.14V: Devonian slate waste, Cornwall 0.263 0.00% 0.262.49W: China clay aggregates, St Austell area, Cornwall 1.752 +16.84% 2.05X: China Clay aggregates, South Dartmoor Area, Devon 0.3290.00% 0.33RECYCLED C&D WASTE SOURCES: 0 0 0.00Y: Recycled C&D Waste 4.872 0.00% 4.875.08Z: Recycled Road Planings 0.2070.00% 0.21Sub-Total: Alternative (Secondary & Recycled) Materials 7.57 0 +3.90% 7.86 0.001.314.091.122.785.08Totals 43.07 43.07Scenario 3: Subsidised Importation of Aggregate into South West Ports5.48 This scenario explores the potential implications of using fiscal policies to encourage thegreater delivery of land-won, marine dredged and secondary aggregates into local portswithin shortfall areas of the South West. The Regional Assembly, on its own, has nopowers to introduce policies of this sort, but it could lobby for such policies to be introducedby central Government, if a suitably compelling case could be made. Any such policiescould well be vetoed by the European Commission (see para. 5.32, above), but they areCapita Symonds Limited page 40 June 2005
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