Dorin Drignei - IMAGe

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A particular case• Upper-air temperature data: observed and climate model• Model- MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model• Parameters of climate model: θ = [S, K v , F aer ]- S: Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2- K v : Global mean vertical thermal diffusivity for the mixing of thermalanomalies into the deep ocean- F aer : Net aerosol forcing
Goal: Find θ that best fits the observed data.OBSlatitude zones12341 2 3 4 5decades0.40.20−0.210.410.410.4MODEL20.220.220.2341 2 3 4 50−0.2341 2 3 4 50−0.2341 2 3 4 50−0.210.410.410.4MODEL20.220.220.2341 2 3 4 50−0.2341 2 3 4 50−0.2341 2 3 4 50−0.2Observed Temperature (1st row). Modeled Climate Temperature for 6 different θ’s (2nd and 3rd rows)How to Characterize the Uncertainty Associated with the Best Fit?
Page 1 and 2: Quantifying uncertainties of climat
Page 3: Climate models and observed climate
Page 7 and 8: Some details• Nonlinear regressio

Dorin Drignei - IMAGe

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