POPE Five Years After Study A10 Wadesmill ... - Highways Agency

POPE Five Years After Evaluation: A10 Wadesmill, High Cross and Colliers End BypassConditions for non-motorised users will have benefited considerably from reduced traffic levels.Significant proportions of residents reported they are making more journeys on foot and bicycle,but there were also some concerns with perceived speeds on the old A10.IntegrationThe scheme has been beneficial in achieving policy objectives at a national, regional and locallevel, including: 1991-2011 Structure Plan for Hertfordshire and Hertfordshire Local TransportPlan (LTP) (2001/02 – 2005/06).Summary of Scheme Economic PerformancePre SchemeForecast (AST)(2002 Prices,discounted to 2002)Pre Scheme Reforecast(2002 Prices,discounted to 2002)Post OpeningReforecast(2002 Prices,discounted to 2002)Journey Time Benefit £86.3m £86.3m £83.2mSafety Benefit £20.3m £47.6m £37.9mTotal 30 Year Benefits (PVB) £106.6m £133.9m £121.1mCosts (PVC) £23.7m £23.7m £40.8mBenefit Cost Ratio (BCR) 4.5 5.6 3.0A lack of data and information from the scheme economic appraisal required POPE to be basedon a number of assumptions. As a result, less confidence can be placed on the comparisons ofpredicted and actual scheme benefits.Details of how the costs and benefits in the AST were calculated were not available to POPE. Ithas been assumed that the figures in the AST are in 1994 prices (in line with WebTAG guidanceat the time the AST was produced) and these have been updated to 2002 prices and values.The monetary journey time benefit is slightly lower than forecast but accounts for the majority ofbenefits.Accident benefits are almost double the AST forecast level. This is despite accident savingsbeing lower than forecast. This is due to the cost of an accident being much lower and a higherdiscount rate being applicable at the time of the appraisal. In addition, the observed accidentsavings are calculated using the PAR approach, which are not directly comparable with theforecast.As a result, to allow a more direct comparison between the forecast and outturn, the accidentsavings in the AST have been updated with the latest accident costs. This gives an AST reforecastsafety benefit that is higher than the outturn benefit.The outturn scheme cost is around 70% higher than the predicted cost.The benefit to cost ratio is lower than predicted, but represents good value for money.5093835/POPE A10 Wadesmill FYA final_15_04_11.docxi