An Unsteady Colossus Astride the Bosphorus 89 ... - Legatum Institute

the commercialization of culture should make religion a matterof personal choice, and thus not susceptible to manipulation bypolitical leadership.Turkey’s recent trajectory suggests how the liberal world-orderis being transformed by unanticipated, complex changes comingfrom the former periphery of the world economy. Turkey’s risemay also be a harbinger of a new reality—one in which emergingeconomies adopt the methods of growth used in the Westwithout adopting Western values or foreign policies. Turkey’sexperience suggests that the regime changes forced by theArab Spring may not lead to liberal convergence, either. Rather,democracy offers the Middle East a path to cultural values thatare likely to be as alien to the West as those exhibited by theprevious generation of unelected autocrats.Once the Cold War ended, Turkey’s divergence on, among otherissues, minority rights, free speech, and judicial independencebecome too obvious a concern for the West to ignore. Onecritical consequence: It has bolstered European opposition toTurkey’s accession to the EU. Indeed, European impatience withthe AKP for not acting quickly enough to implement institutionalreforms has led to a mutual souring of relations in which Turksbecome impatient with the pace of the accession process andattribute the delays to religious bigotry. If these tensions arenot managed wisely, an unvirtuous cycle of populist, nativistbacklash in both the West and in Turkey could magnify mistrustand frustrate reconciliation.Turkey’s experiencesuggests that theregime changesforced by the ArabSpring may notlead to liberalconvergence.16 www.li.com16 16