New Scientist Magazine - No. 3011

Watery graveThe Brazilian government wants to build seven large hydroelectric power stations on the Tapajós riverand its tributary, the Jamanxim, flooding parts of the indigenous Munduruku’s territory50 kmAMAZONPlanned dams1234TAPAJÓS BASINManausTAPAJÓS RIVER3São Luiz do TapajósJatobáChacorãoCachoeira do CaíJacareacangaBELO MONTEDAM SCHEMEXINGUBRAZILGenerationcapacity8040 MW2338 MW3336 MW802 MWTAPAJÓS RIVERFloodedarea729 km 2646 km 2616 km 2420 km 2dramatic transformation of the Amazon.The tipping point was spelled out in 2013by the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change:“Modelling studies have suggested that, ifdeforestation reaches 40 per cent in theregion, drastic changes will likely occur inthe hydrological cycle, with a 40 per centreduction in rainfall during the monthsfrom July to November.”Even scientists with a less alarmist outlookthan Nobre believe that, if deforestationcontinues, the viability of the large damsmay be compromised. Until recently mostscientists thought that cutting down treesnear dams increased the amount of waterflowing into them. But a recent study by theAmazon Environmental Research Institutein San Francisco, California, came to a verydifferent conclusion. It found that by 2050,when on present trends at least 40 per centof Brazil’s Amazon forest will be gone, therewill be a significant decline in river flows andenergy generation (PNAS, vol 110, p 9601). Thiswould make the reliability of the dams as anenergy source highly questionable.Another difficulty is that big developmentprojects always provoke an unruly influx of567Sawré Muybu(Mundurukuterritory)24JamanximCachoeira dos PatosJardim de Ouro1ItaitubaSawré MuybuvillageJAMANXIM RIVER881 MW528 MW227 MWillegal loggers, land thieves, cattle ranchersand slash-and-burn farmers, who exacerbatethe deforestation. The government promisesit will be different with São Luiz do Tapajós,through the use of river platforms similar toNorth Sea oil rigs to make it possible to bringpeople in using helicopters rather than roads.But Juan Doblas of the non-profit Social-Environmental Institute in Altamira pointsout a flaw: “Yes, when a dam is up andrunning, you can bring workers in byhelicopter. But the main environmentaldamage is done during the building of thedam, when thousands of labourers are needed.You can’t bring in this volume by helicopter.Big projects always cause forest felling andthere is no sign of that ending.”A radical solution would be to see if Brazilcould do without dams on the Amazon. Nobresays that much could be done to save energy.“Brazil wastes 55 per cent of public street5674 km 2117 km 2426 km 2“ Big projects always causeforest felling and there isno sign of that ending”7lighting because the lenses spread the beamwider than is necessary. By refocusing thelight we would save as much energy as BeloMonte will generate,” he says. Another sourceof waste is electric showers. “If we were toinstall solar water heaters, which would notbe difficult with the amount of sunshine weget, there would be no need for furtherhydroelectric dams in the Amazon.”Along with growing doubts from scientists,another factor is creating the perceptionthat the authorities’ love affair with Amazonhydropower may be waning. Historically,one of the biggest drivers of dam-buildinghas been a cosy relationship between bigengineering companies and their politicalallies. “Energy planning in Brazil is not treatedas a strategic issue but as a source of moneyfor engineering companies and politicians,”says Felício Pontes, prosecutor for the FederalPublic Ministry in Pará.But many of the companies are now caughtup in a massive corruption scandal involvingbribery and money laundering by the stateownedoil company, Petrobrás. Investigatorsare examining the contracts for the BeloMonte dam, and a leading executive of oneof the companies, Camargo Corrêa, whichhas been funding viability studies for theSão Luís do Tapajós dam, has been arrested.As a result, there is no longer the sameimpetus to push ahead with the dams. Untilrecently, the government was planning togenerate electricity from all the maintributaries of the Amazon east of the city ofManaus. But in a leaked copy of its latest 10-year energy plan, obtained by the O Estado deS. Paulo newspaper, all dams except São Luizdo Tapajós have been removed. Even this is nolonger on the list of priority projects to be builtover the next five years. If confirmed, thisamounts to a major rethink of Brazil’s energyplans, and a possible reprieve for the Amazon.Meanwhile, the Munduruku fight on.Emboldened by a judicial decision that “full,free and prior consultations” must be carriedout, a delegation of 30 made the five-day busjourney to Brasilia at the end of January topresent their demands – the central one beingthe cancellation of the dam.They are still a long way from achievingvictory. But after decades of bitter struggle,the battle for the Amazon finally seems to begoing their way. ■Sue Branford is a freelance journalist specialisingin Latin America. Maurício Torres is collaborativelecturer in the postgraduate programme at theFederal University of Western Pará, Brazil7 March 2015 | NewScientist | 37