Loosening-Konys-Grip-July-2013-FINAL

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VII. CONCLUSIONWhile it is tempting to focus on all that is wrong withthe current counter-LRA effort, it is vital that all engagedagencies continue their work and collaborateto overcome remaining obstacles. The research conductedfor this paper indicates that the LRA is losingcohesion and facing command and control problemsthat are a direct result of the pressure that has built upover the past few years. This pressure is the productof aggressive UPDF and US military action astride themain lines of communication between LRA commandheadquarters and dispersed units in southern CARand northern Congo, the increased presence of AU andUN military installations in Congo and South Sudan,the aggressive defensive activities of the Arrow Boys inSouth Sudan, and the relentless defection campaignsconducted by US personnel, MONUSCO DDRRR, localcivil society leaders, and international NGOs suchas Invisible Children. Just the number of helicopterbroadcasting messages addressed to the LRA adds tothe pressure that is building.Though the AU RTF remains an unmet promise andthe FARDC, supported by MONUSCO, continue tomaintain a defensive posture that fails to deliver effectiveprotection to civilian communities, their presenceacts as a potential risk to the LRA that they struggleto manage. While it is unlikely that dramatic improvementsto military effectiveness can be achieved withoutinvesting significant diplomatic and financial capital, itis possible that a modest investment in improving thedefection campaign will push the LRA to the point ofdespair – and possibly collapse.LOOSENING KONY’S GRIP | 54
ANNEX I. ESTIMATED LRA COMPOSITIONEstimated LRAcomposition, April 2013Ugandan menNon-Ugandan men*Women**Children*Primarily Zande abductees from CAR,Congo, and South Sudan** Including approximately 40-60Ugandan women27001407283188Estimated LRA combatantcapacity, 1999-2013** A significant majority of LRA combatantsare Ugandan males, butsome Ugandan women and abducteesfrom CAR, Congo, and SouthSudan also serve as combatants8004002531999 2008 2010 2013Estimated number of armed LRAcombatants vs total membership,April 2013Total LRA membershipArmed combatants491253Note: These graphs represent estimates of membershipwithin the LRA. At least 59 reported adult males couldhave been counted twice in the groups under the “LRAgroups with unidentified status or location” section inAnnex II. Some groups, however, might not have beenmentioned at all due to lack of information from formercombatants.Estimates are derived from: Author interviews withformer LRA combatants, Gulu and Kampala, 2011-2013. Cakaj, Ledio, “The Lord’s Resistance Army ofToday,” Enough Project, November 2010. Lancaster,Philip, Guillaume Lacaille, and Ledio Cakaj, “DiagnosticStudy of the Lord’s Resistance Army,” InternationalWorking Group on the LRA, World Bank, June 2011.LOOSENING KONY’S GRIP | 55
Page 1 and 2:
LOOSENING KONY’S GRIPEffective De
Page 3 and 4: ABOUTPublished© July 2013 The Reso
Page 5 and 6: escape, discourages many from defec
Page 7 and 8: To donors• Fund the construction
Page 9 and 10: I. INTRODUCTIONThe overall situatio
Page 11 and 12: II. THE FINAL CHAPTER?The LRA of 20
Page 13 and 14: Map: Estimated location of LRA grou
Page 15 and 16: C. Kony and LRA command dynamicsThe
Page 17 and 18: or no contact with one another.Ther
Page 19 and 20: III. HOMEWARD BOUNDDebating Defecti
Page 21 and 22: the majority of LRA members seek on
Page 23 and 24: dan LRA fighters as scouts immediat
Page 25 and 26: 2. Reintegration support for non-Ug
Page 27 and 28: IV. A REGION IN CHAOSThe Context fo
Page 29 and 30: chaos that emboldens bandits, rogue
Page 31 and 32: 1. Standing up the AU RTFHaving fai
Page 33: ited to passive measures in that th
Page 37 and 38: staff in Bangui with improved field
Page 39 and 40: function in spite of the coup. Othe
Page 41 and 42: to respond immediately to the count
Page 43 and 44: cal care they received. Such messag
Page 45 and 46: Map: FM radio Come Home broadcast c
Page 47 and 48: attempt escape.But given that most
Page 49 and 50: information about LRA group movemen
Page 51 and 52: locations be attacked. 101In SRS lo
Page 53: satellite or mobile phones, crackin
Page 57 and 58: C. LRA groups in CAR and Kafia King
Page 59 and 60: tion in October 2007. LRA defectors
Page 61 and 62: C. LRA commanders in CAR and Kafia
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