Distribution and Perception of Urban Shrinkage across Europe
Distribution and Perception of Urban Shrinkage across Europe
Distribution and Perception of Urban Shrinkage across Europe
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1. A synthesis <strong>of</strong> shrinkage in <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Western <strong>and</strong> Northern <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Belgium, Denmark, Finl<strong>and</strong>, France, Irel<strong>and</strong>, Netherl<strong>and</strong>s, Sweden, UK<br />
Post Communist <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Bosnia <strong>and</strong> Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia,<br />
Pol<strong>and</strong>, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia,<br />
Central <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Germany, Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, Austria<br />
Outside <strong>of</strong> <strong>Europe</strong><br />
USA, Australia, Japan<br />
Southern <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Turkey<br />
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Experimenting <strong>and</strong><br />
discovering<br />
1. A synopsis <strong>of</strong> shrinkage in <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Western <strong>and</strong> Northern <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Belgium, Denmark, Finl<strong>and</strong>, France, Irel<strong>and</strong>, Netherl<strong>and</strong>s, Sweden, UK<br />
‘Mature’ urban environments<br />
Enduring decline<br />
Declining rural areas<br />
Economic<br />
transformations<br />
Long ongoing<br />
Diverse patterns <strong>of</strong> shrinkagel<br />
suburban, peripheral, rural<br />
Suburbanisation<br />
& trends towards reurbanisation<br />
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1. A synopsis <strong>of</strong> shrinkage in <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Post Communist <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Bosnia <strong>and</strong> Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia,<br />
Pol<strong>and</strong>, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia,<br />
Comparable trends<br />
Economic <strong>and</strong><br />
political changes<br />
Rural shrinkage<br />
Demographic<br />
‘shock’<br />
Still not perceived everywhere<br />
New suburbanisation<br />
dem<strong>and</strong> for new homes, single family type<br />
Polarisation<br />
urban, rural, capital city, hinterl<strong>and</strong>s<br />
Fast track shrinkage<br />
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1. A synopsis <strong>of</strong> shrinkage in <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Central <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Germany, Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, Austria<br />
Forerunners in planning <strong>and</strong> policy making<br />
elaborate planning systems<br />
National level awareness<br />
National policies versus local strategies<br />
Demographic change<br />
Rising polarisation<br />
prospering cities – declining cities<br />
Suburbanisation<br />
Tendencies towards reurbanisation<br />
Economic transitions<br />
versus economic stability<br />
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1. A synopsis <strong>of</strong> shrinkage in <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Regional disparities<br />
Southern <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Turkey<br />
‘Mature’ urban environments<br />
Declining industrial cities<br />
Declining small peripheral cities<br />
Economic crisis<br />
Austerity policies<br />
Demographic change<br />
Climate change<br />
Suburbanisationl<br />
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2. Process <strong>and</strong> perception <strong>of</strong> shrinkage<br />
The Top Five Trends driving<br />
urban shrinkage in <strong>Europe</strong><br />
1. Economic transformations<br />
2. Demographic change<br />
3. Suburbanisation<br />
4. Out migration<br />
5. Rural shrinkage<br />
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2. Process <strong>and</strong> perception <strong>of</strong> shrinkage<br />
The process <strong>of</strong> shrinkage<br />
Economic transformation leads to unemployment<br />
- followed by out-migration on a regional scale<br />
<strong>Shrinkage</strong> leads to losses <strong>of</strong> population in certain areas<br />
(urban cores, rural areas, specific sites…)<br />
Problems: derelict sites, vacancies <strong>and</strong> ab<strong>and</strong>oned<br />
quarters<br />
Social consequences: exclusion, poverty, homelessness<br />
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2. Process <strong>and</strong> perception <strong>of</strong> shrinkage<br />
Strategies to cope with shrinkage depending on the perception <strong>of</strong> shrinkage<br />
<strong>Perception</strong>s <strong>of</strong> shrinkage<br />
Phase <strong>of</strong> ignoring<br />
Decline as vicious<br />
circle<br />
Without goals<br />
Hope for regional<br />
planning or financial<br />
support<br />
Passive strategies<br />
Expansive<br />
strategy<br />
Observation<br />
without<br />
acceptance<br />
Certain<br />
acceptance<br />
with/ without<br />
public<br />
communication<br />
Maintenance strategy<br />
Keep population Maintain attractiveness <strong>and</strong><br />
within city borders spatial structure<br />
Substantial<br />
expansion <strong>of</strong><br />
residential areas<br />
Development <strong>of</strong> existing<br />
l<strong>and</strong> use, target groups<br />
programmes<br />
Active strategies<br />
Sources: Own design based on Farke 2005, Danielzyk 2002<br />
Acceptance<br />
Planning for decline<br />
Orderly shrinkage,<br />
development <strong>of</strong><br />
qualities<br />
Adaption/ reduction<br />
<strong>of</strong> infrastructure,<br />
development <strong>of</strong><br />
recreational areas<br />
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3. <strong>Shrinkage</strong> <strong>across</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>: 2 Examples<br />
France<br />
Problems<br />
• Industrial & agricultural<br />
regions in decline<br />
• <strong>Shrinkage</strong> in disconnected<br />
cities as ‘silent process’<br />
<strong>Perception</strong><br />
• Limited national awareness<br />
Strategies<br />
• Pro-growth: Regional<br />
development programmes<br />
• Expansion & Maintenance<br />
• Side effects<br />
Romania<br />
Problems<br />
• Industrial regions in decline<br />
• Demographic change<br />
• Fast suburbanisation<br />
• Poor infrastructure<br />
• Out-migration<br />
<strong>Perception</strong><br />
• Rising national awareness<br />
Strategies<br />
• Pro-growth (economic)<br />
• New residential areas<br />
• Regional collaboration<br />
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4. Conclusions<br />
Research questions to be considered:<br />
•What are the viable options for a shrinking city:<br />
Redevelopment? Beautification? Preservation? Greening? Demolition? Neglect?<br />
•How can a shrinking city evaluate what works <strong>and</strong> what doesn’t?<br />
•How does it balance short-term considerations against long-term ones?<br />
•How does it deal with social equity?<br />
•Is there a tipping point beyond which a shrinking city can no longer recover?<br />
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Further information<br />
E-mail:<br />
karina.pallagst@ru.uni-kl.de<br />
Homepage:<br />
http://www.uni-kl.de/ips<br />
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