Cities Regrowing Smaller – Facing the Challenge of Shrinking Cities

Shrinkage in Europe - 16 Feb 2011
Cities Regrowing Smaller –
Facing the Challenge of Shrinking Cities
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann, TU Dortmund
Chair of COST Action TU 0803 »Cities Regrowing Smaller«
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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Shrinkage in Europe - 16 Feb 2011
Cities Regrowing Smaller (CIRES) – COST Action TU0803
Fostering Knowledge on Regeneration Strategies in Shrinking Cities across Europe
www.shrinkingcities.eu
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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Shrinkage in Europe - 16 Feb 2011
1 Introduction: unresolved issues of shrinking cities
2 Eight Selected Cases: grounding the debate
3 Lessons drawn from the cases
4 Concluding remarks
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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1 Introduction
Shrinking Cities – selected unresolved issues
• The state of knowledge: causes, patterns, and effects
• The political dimension: the significance of shrinkage
• The responses of planners: promising strategies to deal with shrinkage
Four lines of argument
Still, we know little about the extension and spreading of urban
shrinkage; in particular we lack a cross-national comparative
perspective. Validity and comparability of existing data is questionable.
Shrinking Cities as such are not new, but the long term influence of low
fertility rates demands for a change of perspective and a distinction
between demographic decrease and economic decline.
In shrinking cities planning practice is ahead of planning research.
We need to transform planning of shrinkage into theory of shrinkage.
Planning is traditionally growth oriented. Planning for shrinkage
demands a paradigm change – IOW: is thrown into a state of crisis
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
Dessau
• Regional center in Saxony-Anhalt
• Population losses (-28%) since 1989
due to out-migration and low birth rates
• Demolition of housing blocks with state support
• IBA Urban Redevelopment 2010: Urban Core Areas – Landscape Zones
120000
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
Source: IBA Urban Redevelopment 2010
Source: Wiechmann
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
Leipzig
• Major city in Saxony
• Long term shrinkage 1965 – 2000 (-39%)
due to out-migration and low birth rates
• Since 2000 new growth due to a positive migratory balance and trends
towards reurbanization
• Early restructuring programs by the city planning department
650.000
630.000
610.000
590.000
570.000
550.000
530.000
510.000
490.000
470.000
450.000
Stadthäuser –
New Townhouses
Source: Stadt Leipzig
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
Duisburg
• Major city in the Ruhr Area
• Long term shrinkage since 1961 (-26%)
due to economic decline (heavy industries)
• Temporary growth in early 1990ies
650.000
630.000
610.000
590.000
570.000
550.000
530.000
510.000
490.000
470.000
450.000
• Large distressed neighborhoods in proximity to industrial areas (north)
• New developments at the inland harbor and on green fields (south)
Duisburg-Bruckhausen: Housing Area with
high vacancy rate – future green belt
Source: Stadt Duisburg
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
Taranto
• Industrial city in Apulia
• Population decrease since 1980 (-21%)
due to low fertility and out-migration
• Steel and iron foundries, oil refineries, chemical plants, commercial and
military ports – number of jobs declined
• „High environmental risk area” - most polluted city in western Europe
(carbon monoxide, dioxin, etc.)
250.000
240.000
230.000
220.000
210.000
200.000
190.000
180.000
170.000
160.000
150.000
Taranto: Urban structure
Urban regeneration projects:
• Tamburi quarter (78 m € + 46 m €)
• Salinella quarter (13 m €)
• Città Vecchia (6,2 m €)
• Zona Franca Urbana
(Urban free zone with tax incentives)
Source: Wiechmann
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
Porto
• Major city in northern Portugal
• Population decrease of –30% since 1991
due to metropolitan decentralization of
housing and industries as well as low fertility rates
• Historic center (UNESCO world heritage) with high vacancies, many
houses in poor condition
• SRU Master Plan and Historic Center Management Plan seek for the
re-population of the historic center
350000
330000
310000
290000
270000
250000
230000
210000
190000
170000
150000
Source: Wiechmann
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
Youngstown, Ohio
• US rust belt city and traditional center of
steel production
• Population decrease since the 1960ies (–56%)
due to the decline of U.S. steel industry
• The city was forced to redefine itself
150.000
140.000
130.000
120.000
110.000
100.000
90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
• Problem: maintaining a largely oversized infrastructure
„Youngstown 2010” (in 2005):
• Vision: accepting shrinkage
• Smaller city, new economy,
improved image and quality of life
• Youngstown has spent $5.3 million
to implement the plan:
2,000 houses were razed,
five bridges refurbished, and
seven brownfield sites remediated
Source: Wiechmann / Pallagst (2009)
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
190.000
Flint, Michigan
• Birthplace of General Motors and symbol of
the collapse of the US auto industry
• Strongest population decline in large U.S. cities;
since 1960 the city lost 43% of its population
• Neighborhoods along the former industrial sites
show vacancy rates above 50%
• High socioeconomic
and racial segregation
170.000
150.000
130.000
110.000
90.000
70.000
50.000
Source: Volkmann
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study
Toyama
• Major city on the north coast of Honshu;
center of pharmaceutical industry, IT and
biotechnology industry
• Population decrease in prefecture stronger
than in the city; -2% since 1985
• Predominantly due to declining birthrates
• 2005, six neighboring towns incorporated
500000
480000
460000
440000
420000
400000
380000
360000
340000
320000
300000
Revitalization Master Plan (2007):
• Vision: revitalization without
population growth
• „Stick and Dumplings”
Toyama 1972 2010
• Three priorities:
- Promotion of Inner-city Residence
- (Re-)creation of Commercial Core
- Improving Public Transportation
Source: Seta 2009
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
What did these eight cases have in common?
• All cities lost residents; population decrease started already in the 20 th
century (between 1960 and 1990)
• All cities have an ageing population
• All cities show housing vacancy rates above the fluctuation reserve
• All cities face a deteriorating financial basis
• All cities have troubles to maintain the oversized infrastructure
• All cities struggled to accept shrinkage
What are major differences between these eight cases?
• The causes of population decrease are different: economic decline, outmigration,
low fertility rates, suburbanization, decentralization,
environmental pollution, etc.
• Extend and spatial pattern of vacancies differ
• Some cities face long term economic decline while others are
economically competitive
• Some cities deliberately plan for a smaller city (Dessau, Youngstown,
Toyama) where as other still aim for demographic growth (Porto,
Taranto, Duisburg)
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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Population Change
3 Lessons
‚Shrinking Cities’: irreversible decline or a cyclical phenomenon?
Core
Agglomeration
Hinterland
Subphases
Phases
Urbanization Cycle according to Leo van den Berg 1982
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
(Demographic) Shrinkage ≠ Cyclical Phenomenon !
(Demographic) Shrinkage ≠ (Economic) Decline !
• Population decrease may be caused by suburbanization
• Population decrease may be caused by out-migration of
young job seeking residents
• However, in large parts of Europe and East Asia the
demographic transition is – in the long run – the main driver
• The second demographic transition (Lesthaeghe / Kaa 1986)
• began in the mid-1960s and accelerated during the 1980s.
• marked by declining rates of married couples, rising divorce rates, an
increasing age of marriage, a severely falling fertility, and the
substitution of the child with the couple as the main family element.
• Since the 1970s as the pill took effect birth rates declined far below
the replacement level of the population.
• The theory describes the uncoupling of economic wealth and
population growth.
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
The issue of defining the term ‚Shrinking Cities’
Though the academic debate on shrinking cities is still in its infancy we find a
multitude of definitions (see Avila de Sousa 2010):
• Consensus on the demographic characteristic: decreasing population
• Quantitative aspect differs widely (with regard to applicable threshold as
well as whether relative shrinkage is included)
• No consensus if the definition should comprise other aspects of a structural
and multidimensional phenomenon
In the COST Action a ‚shrinking city’ is defined as …
• a densely populated urban area with a minimum population of 5,000
residents
• that has faced a population loss in large parts of it
• for more than 2 years and
• is undergoing transformations with some symptoms of a structural crisis.
Based on: SCiRN 2005
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
Typologies ‚Shrinking Cities’
Most of the few so far proposed typologies so far are based on causes
Suburbanisation
Industrial
Transformation
Selective
Collapses
Politcal
Strategies
Hollowing Out,
'Doghnut'
Sprawl
Old Industrial Areas
Rust Belts
(Steel, Coal)
Economical
Oil crisis
Dot-com Hype
Abandonment of
Mining Areas
Controlled
(Re)Settlements
Depopulation Areas
Segregation
…
Harbours, Dockyards
Textile Industries
Environmental
(Natural) Disaster
Pollution
Epidemics
Former controlled
Colonisation Areas
…
…
Political
Banishment
War
Famine
…
Wiechmann 2006
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
Typologies ‚Shrinking Cities’
Most of the few so far proposed typologies so far are based on causes
Type Characteristics Underlying Causes Selected Contemporary Examples Policy Implications (examples)
Shrinkage is Imposed
Conflicts/war
Political and military conflicts
Beirut, Lebanon; Phnom Penh
Conflict resolution
Political or economic reforms
Depletion of resources
Spatial/Administrative Reforms —
national govt.
Uneconomic exploitation of natural
resources
Chinese county towns & villages
Nauru & other mining cities—
including resource towns
Modification of administrative
reforms
New technology; Efficient
methods of resource extraction
Shrinkage due to
comparative
disadvantages
Lack of economic
opportunities/diversity
Lifestyle attractions
Climatic conditions
Infrastructure provisions
Core/periphery drift Globalization
De-industrialization
Re-industrialization
(rise of Regional inequalities;
Knowledge economy)
Climatic differences
Metropolitan lifestyle
Poland relative to EU
S. Korea -- regions outside of Seoul
Metro region
France (non metro Paris)
Scotland
NE China old industrial centers
Rust belt (USA)
Reinforce regional resilience
Ensure embeddedness of
economic activities
Regional decentralization policies
Shrinkage due to societal /
global changes
Absolute decline of population
Ageing population
Climate change
Low birth rate (fertility decline)
Low population replacement rate
Population structure “Demographic
onus”
Dresden, Germany
Kyoto, Japan
Australian outback towns
Population policy
Urban amenities/infrastructures
investments
Global climate policies/programs
Global climate changes
Source: Wu et al. 2008
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
Typologies ‚Shrinking Cities’
Most of the few so far proposed typologies are based on causes
With regard to Europe, causal typologies focus on three development paths:
• Suburbanization
• „hollowing out”, flight of people and jobs, urban sprawl
• decentralization
• Economic Restructuring
• shift away from industrial-based economy
• old industrialized rust-belts
• peripheral rural areas and small towns
• Demographics
• low fertility rates; negative natural population development
• immigrant settlement patterns: tendency of immigrants to settle in
larger, growing cities
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
Typologies ‚Shrinking Cities’
Only recently, cluster analyses aim at classifying shrinking cities:
• Germany
• Bertelsmann Foundation, 2005 ff.
• 2,971 municipalities (> 5,000 res.); 220 indicators
• information system for local and regional stakeholder
• 15 clusters on municipality level (n=2,971)
• Portugal
• Silvia Avila de Sousa, 2010
• 3 levels: cities, municipalities, extended regions; 33 indicators
• 3 clusters on city level (n=21)
• France
• Manuel Wolff, 2011
• 354 Aire Urbaine, 14 indicators
• 5 clusters on FUA level (n=354)
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
Availability and validity of data on ‚Shrinking Cities’
What kind of data would be needed?
• Population development in urban areas
births, deaths, migration, …
• Socio-economic transformations
vacancy rates, land use changes, GDP, employment, income …
time series on small scale!
comparative statistics (interregional and international)
Source: Wiechmann / Wolff 2010
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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Source: Wolff 2009
3 Lessons
Availability and validity of data on ‚Shrinking Cities’
What kind of data is available in Europe? (see Wolff 2011)
• Eurostat
• NUTS 1, 2, 3 regional scale not adequate to analyze cities
• LAU 1, 2 low comparability and validity
• Urban Audit with 357 (larger) cities not up-to-date, large gaps,
lack of metadata
• National statistics
• different standards, methods, and variables
• heterogeneous time-reference of existing data
• different operationalization of ‚cities’
• different thresholds
• in some countries poor availability of socio-economic data
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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Source: Wiechmann 2003
3 Lessons
Lack of instruments to deal with ‚Shrinking Cities’
Planning shrinkage - the new challenge
• Traditional planning is based on growth expectations
• There is a necessity to realign the planning system
• Contracting processes are complex, difficult and ‚politically indigestible’
Traditional ‘Growth Planning’
• Objective: Growth
• Prior Task: to reduce shortcomings by
new offers, to canalise investments
• Governance by physical plans
• Orientation on new construction sites and
new buildings
• Clear, binding guidelines (e.g. type and
extend of use)
• Spatial separation of housing, work,
shopping and recreation
• Local planning autonomy
Sustainable ‘Stock Development’
• Objective: Revision, stabilisation and
maintenance of regeneration capacity
• Prior Task: to reduce shortcomings in
existing structures, prevent disinvestment
• Process support (guidance, moderation)
• Orientation on the reutilization of buildings
and creative demolition
• Alternative development opportunities,
multifunctional architecture
• Efficient support funds through strategic
frameworks and cross-sectoral solutions
• Intermunicipal co-operation
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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3 Lessons
Lack of instruments to deal with ‚Shrinking Cities’
Youngstown 2010:
Accepting Shrinkage
Leipzig: Conceptual District Plans
Dessau:
Urban Core Areas –
Landscape Zones
Toyama: Master plan
Revitalization without growth
Flint: Landbank
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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4 Concluding remarks
‚Shrinking Cities’: Facing the challenge
Do you see the dancer as spinning clockwise or counterclockwise?
It just depends on how YOU see it !
Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann Cities Regrowing Smaller
16.02.2011
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