Capital

ArthVeda Capital Fact Sheet
Market Insights Sheet
Capital
Insight #1: Mutual Fund Meter
Majority (>60% of LC MFs) lag NIFTY TRI; Even more (>80%) lag smart
benchmark L50 which consistently beats all LC MFs
Insight #2: Market Returns Monitor
Monitor #1 – ArthVeda Expectation Index reveals strong expected returns
in next 5 years
% MFs
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Lagging NIFTY TRI Beating NIFTY TRI Lagging L50 Beating L50
37%
63%
17%
83%
1 Last 10 Yr.
2
Source: ArthVeda. Based on historical analysis of Indian equity markets (multiple
Source: ArthVeda, Reuters. As of 31-Jul-15.
annually rebalanced L50 portfolios and monthly rebalanced L10 portfolio). Note: 5
year CAGR returns in %.
Monitor #2 – Based on Market Outlook report published 28-Jul-14, ArthVeda Capital re-affirms robust returns expectation
Returns (multiple)
6.0x
5.5x
5.0x
4.5x
4.0x
3.5x
3.0x
2.5x
2.0x
1.5x
4.3x
5.0x
5.5x
NIFTY TRI L50 L10
24.6%
27.0%
3.3x
3.0x
37.5%
4.9x
21.6%
2.9x
2.7x
14.1%
1.9x
24.0%
2.0x < P/B < 2.5x 2.5x < P/B < 3.0x 3.0x < P/B < 3.5x
Strong improvement in fundamentals (CAGR FY 15-19)
Expected Buoyant Market Returns (CAGR FY15-19)
32%
24%
16%
8%
0%
17% 20%
24%
12%
20% 18%
19% 15% 30% 19% 23% 17%
Book Equity Earnings Sales
Best Base Worst CAGR FY05-09
Best Base Worst
NIFTY TRI 29.9% 20.0% 11.3%
NIFTY 50 28.0% 18.0% 9.0%
Sensex 27.1% 17.1% 8.3%
Source: ArthVeda, Reuters
Source: ArthVeda
Key Market Metrics
Currency Movements: Over the long run, INR has remained weak
₹ 70
₹ 65
₹ 60
₹ 55
₹ 50
₹ 45
Source: NSE, ArthVeda
Currency Futures Expiring Current Last 1
Month
A look at bond yields and inflation
Source: Reuters, RBI (no provisional figures), ArthVeda
Source: World Gold Council, Reuters. Note: unannualized movements for less than 1 year
Last 3
Months
Last 6
Months
Last 1 Yr. Last 3 Yr. Last 5 Yr. Last 10 Yr.
As of 28-Oct-15 28-Sep-15 27-Aug-15 31-Jul-15 30-Jun-15 30-Apr-15 31-Jan-15 31-Jul-14 31-Jul-12 31-Jul-10 31-Jul-05
$1 is worth ₹ 65.20 ₹ 64.84 ₹ 64.49 ₹ 64.12 ₹ 63.68 ₹ 63.52 ₹ 61.94 ₹ 60.52 ₹ 55.62 ₹ 46.41 ₹ 43.44
31-Jul-15 30-Jun-15 30-Apr-15 31-Jan-15 31-Jul-14
10 Yr. India Government Bond Yields 7.8% 7.9% 7.9% 7.7% 8.7%
30-Jun-15 30-May-15 30-Mar-15 30-Dec-14 30-Jun-14
CPI (yoy) 5.4% 5.0% 5.3% 5.0% 7.3%
Gold and Oil Movements
₹ 40
as of 31-Jul-15, with currency futures expiring 28-Oct-15
₹ 35
29-Oct-04 29-May-06 29-Dec-07 29-Jul-09 28-Feb-11 30-Sep-12 30-Apr-14
As of 31-July-15 Last 1 Month Last 3 Months Last 6 Months Last 1 Yr. Last 3 Yrs. Last 5 Yrs. Last 10 Yrs.
Gold (INR per troy ounce) -5.6% -6.1% -9.8% -9.5% -7.9% 5.4% 14.2%
Crude Oil ($/bbl) -15.3% -27.3% -19.2% -52.4% -24.5% -8.1% -3.0%
1