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Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies

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Chapter 11: Decentralized Institutions: The Future of <strong>Bitcoin</strong>?<br />

So far in this book we’ve explored the state of <strong>Bitcoin</strong> <strong>and</strong> block chain technologies as of 2015. In this<br />

chapter, we’ll consider what future possibilities may be realized by <strong>Bitcoin</strong>. We won’t claim to know<br />

what might unfold, following the adage “never make predictions, especially about the future.” Hence<br />

the question mark in the title.<br />

Instead, we’ll stick to the academic approach we’ve taken so far in this book, even when studying<br />

potential future technologies. <strong>Bitcoin</strong>’s future is a subject that seems to muster enthusiastic <strong>and</strong><br />

breathless visions of a true technological revolution. This chapter could be a manifesto. It is not. We<br />

identify notable proposals <strong>and</strong> take a clinical approach to categorizing them <strong>and</strong> critically evaluating<br />

their relative pros <strong>and</strong> cons.<br />

<strong>Bitcoin</strong> is a broad subject that encompasses the protocol itself as well as its potential as a platform for<br />

new applications. The focus of this chapter is not the future of the <strong>Bitcoin</strong> protocol, although we<br />

recognize that there are many issues that will shape the future of the protocol that are important to<br />

study, including <strong>Bitcoin</strong>’s governance, efficiency, scalability, <strong>and</strong> feature set.<br />

Instead we will focus on how <strong>Bitcoin</strong>’s apparent success at decentralizing currency may cause us to<br />

rethink other centralized institutions — ones dealing with stocks, bonds, property titles, <strong>and</strong> more.<br />

We’ll ask if block chain technology could be applied to decentralizing them as well. Not only should<br />

we ask if decentralization is technically possible, but also if it is financially sensible <strong>and</strong> beneficial to<br />

society.<br />

11.1 The Block Chain as a Vehicle for Decentralization<br />

There were numerous failed attempts at digital or electronic cash before <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (the preface to this<br />

book touched upon many of them). <strong>Bitcoin</strong>’s key difference compared to most of these attempts is<br />

decentralization. The core innovation of <strong>Bitcoin</strong> that enables decentralization is the block chain.<br />

In this section, we will consider how block chain technology may enable decentralization in areas<br />

other than currency. Throughout this chapter, we’ll use a running example of a car whose ownership<br />

is controlled through a block chain. This is a specific example of a more general idea of smart property<br />

which we introduced in Chapter 9. Smart property, <strong>and</strong> digital contracts that govern them, were<br />

pioneered by Nick Szabo <strong>and</strong> others in the early 1990s, well before <strong>Bitcoin</strong> was proposed. However<br />

with a block chain, the idea can be made concrete.<br />

Motivating Example.​Modern automobiles use two primary locking mechanisms: physical locks on the<br />

doors <strong>and</strong> a vehicle immobilizer which electronically prevents the engine from starting. The owner is<br />

provided with a key fob that communicates wirelessly with the car to authorize the doors to unlock<br />

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