12 <strong>European</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Environmental</strong> <strong>Report</strong> <strong>2016</strong>
<strong>European</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Environmental</strong> <strong>Report</strong> <strong>2016</strong> 13 1. OVERVIEW OF AVIATION SECTOR The environmental impacts of <strong>European</strong> aviation have increased following the growth in air traffic. Between 1990 and 2005 air traffic and emissions of CO 2 have both increased by about 80%. However due to technological improvements, fleet renewal, increased ATM efficiency and the 2008 economic downturn, both emissions and noise exposure in 2014 are around 2005 levels. Future improvements are not expected to be sufficient to prevent an overall growth in emissions during the next 20 years, but may stabilise noise exposure by 2035. Analysis scope and assumptions Historical air traffic data in this section comes from <strong>European</strong> Member States and aircraft operators. This is provided to EUROCONTROL and used as a basis for the three future traffic scenarios in their STATFOR 20-year traffic forecast representing ‘high’, ‘base’ (most likely) and ‘low’ growth rates [21]. The coverage is all flights from or to airports in the <strong>European</strong> Union (EU) 6 and <strong>European</strong> Free Trade Association (EFTA) 7 . EU28 EFTA Aircraft emissions were derived using the IMPACT model and aircraft noise indicators using the STAPES noise contour model. For each traffic forecast, CO 2 , NO X and noise trends are presented as a range based on various potential technology improvement rates. The upper forecast bound represents the ‘low’ technology improvement rate, and the lower forecast bound represents the ‘advanced’ technology improvement rate. The efficiency of the ATM system and population around airports were considered constant in the analysis, although future capacity plans provided by airports were taken into account. For more details on models, analysis methods, forecasts, supporting data sources and assumptions used in this analysis, please refer to Appendix C. 6 Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. 7 Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.
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