TROLL - Impression.be
TROLL - Impression.be
TROLL - Impression.be
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
pReSenTS SofTwaRe<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is integrated software for econometric,<br />
modeling and statistical analysis.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is a premium econometric modeling<br />
and analysis tool used by many of the world’s<br />
leading central banks, national and international<br />
government agencies, commercial institutions<br />
and research organisations.<br />
The complete <strong>TROLL</strong> suite has <strong>be</strong>en<br />
developed, marketed and supported by<br />
INTEX Solutions, Inc., whose headquarters<br />
are located in Boston, Massachusetts,<br />
USA. HENDYPLAN (Brussels, Belgium) has<br />
developed many additional components as<br />
Add-ins to <strong>TROLL</strong>.<br />
OVERVIEW<br />
HENDYPLAN is the exclusive distributor in the<br />
wide Europe but also operates occasionally<br />
in Africa and the Middle-East.<br />
State of art environment<br />
for timeseries management,<br />
analysis and modeling<br />
All abbreviations, definitions and copyrights are at the end of this document.<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL: +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
The power of <strong>TROLL</strong> is… unlimited and portable<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> was developed initially at the Massachusetts<br />
Institute of Technology (Boston, USA). It<br />
was dedicated to the former IBM 370 computer<br />
and was already very successful worldwide.<br />
The development of Portable <strong>TROLL</strong> started<br />
in 1992: the aim was to provide statisticians,<br />
econometricians, modellers, and researchers,<br />
with the power of mainframe <strong>TROLL</strong> exploitable<br />
on MS-WINDOWS and UNIX.<br />
Portable <strong>TROLL</strong> is now used worldwide on<br />
PC and UNIX machines, taking advantage<br />
of a total portability: any application may <strong>be</strong><br />
switched <strong>be</strong>tween UNIX and PC-WINDOWS at<br />
any time. The totally new design of <strong>TROLL</strong> also<br />
offers an advanced user-friendly graphical<br />
user interface (including the advanced Client-<br />
Server features).<br />
The main advantage of <strong>TROLL</strong> is certainly<br />
its state-of-the-art model simulation engine<br />
designed for large systems. Now, <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
includes sophisticated objects such as arrays<br />
with any num<strong>be</strong>r of space dimensions, scalar<br />
timeseries, array timeseries, supporting any<br />
kind of periodicities including daily, infra-daily<br />
and user-defined periodicities.<br />
DATA manipulation<br />
Handle Data through<br />
librairy of more than<br />
250 functions<br />
MODEL manipulation<br />
Edit model, create equations,<br />
modify, save, etc. Compile<br />
model in <strong>TROLL</strong> format<br />
REGLESSION tasks<br />
From OLS to non-linear systems<br />
on coefficients, constrained or<br />
not, VAR, VECM, etc.<br />
KERNEL<br />
hosts objects,<br />
modeling and<br />
programming<br />
[ Figure 1: Architecture of the modules ]<br />
For this reason, experts in econometrics find all<br />
the necessary tools available to develop their<br />
experiments in areas such as macro-economics,<br />
micro-economics and finance: there is no limit<br />
to designing applications involving timeseries,<br />
mathematics and the import/export of data<br />
with external formats (see figure 1).<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is built on the complete integration<br />
of various tasks (calculation, model edition,<br />
estimation, simulation…). Hence, it’s very easy<br />
to store a data object at one place, recover it<br />
at another place and compute it again later; it<br />
is readily available anywhere within the <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
environment.<br />
The integration of various tasks and the optimal<br />
use of the machine’s memory make <strong>TROLL</strong> the<br />
<strong>be</strong>st solution for you.<br />
Compatibility with MS-WINDOWS has<br />
provided a fast and comfortable interaction<br />
with the system:<br />
• integrated text editor,<br />
• interfaces, buttons and MS-WINDOWS flexibility,<br />
• MS-EXCEL interface, etc.<br />
REPORTING capabilities<br />
Multiple levels of<br />
reporting, autmation<br />
of reports production<br />
IOs and databases Interface to<br />
multiple products, extendable<br />
(open system to<br />
plug your formats)<br />
SIMULATION task<br />
Backward, forxard looking,<br />
accurate control of convergence<br />
iterations<br />
2www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Interface and programming language<br />
User-friendly and extensible system<br />
We have built for you a system that has<br />
both user interfaces and a programming<br />
language.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is available for any platform, MS-<br />
WINDOWS or UNIX, under the control of<br />
interfaces to provide improved efficiency and<br />
comfort in daily work. The interaction with the<br />
system is through a combination of mouse and<br />
menu bar clicks, switches <strong>be</strong>tween windows,<br />
and command specifications/processing in<br />
editors. Therefore, <strong>TROLL</strong> <strong>be</strong>longs to a list<br />
of rare products where the user does not<br />
see any difference <strong>be</strong>tween using the system<br />
on WINDOWS or UNIX. Through the client/<br />
server mechanism, the user connects to any<br />
platform within your organisation’s network,<br />
or over the Internet (if your firewall allows it),<br />
without changing the windows to interact with<br />
the software.<br />
Use the same integrated service...<br />
Via your own library<br />
of tools, using <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
Programming Language<br />
FROM RESEARCH and<br />
DEVELOPMENT<br />
Via command lines<br />
The challenge is to keep the capability of designing<br />
and tuning your own application within<br />
the same comfortable framework of windows:<br />
the <strong>TROLL</strong> programming language is complete<br />
and helps you to design your own applications<br />
for a higher degree of automation.<br />
Finally, the system fits with your daily work: on<br />
the one hand exploring, looking for information<br />
and processes, while on the other, developing<br />
routines involving models, data manipulation<br />
and econometrics.<br />
HENDYPLAN has many years of experience in<br />
the development of flexible interfaces for your<br />
business area, in close collaboration with your<br />
experts, to attain a higher level of productivity.<br />
Since each business has its own specific needs,<br />
HENDYPLAN will customise <strong>TROLL</strong> to suit your<br />
particular requirements.<br />
...on any operating system (MS-WINDOWS, UNIX)<br />
covering your needs<br />
TO<br />
PRODUCTION<br />
Via WINDOWS interfaces,<br />
mouse click, pop-up menu<br />
and buttons<br />
3<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Data management<br />
DATA representation, <strong>be</strong>st performance in computation<br />
Powerful modeling tools are only useful if you<br />
can easily access your data. <strong>TROLL</strong> provides<br />
the widest range of data management tools<br />
available in econometric/data manipulation<br />
packages. In addition, you can create your<br />
own functions and macros, making the system<br />
unlimited.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> includes an extensive library of functions<br />
(more than 250) for your data transformation,<br />
in areas such as:<br />
• Algebra and<br />
Trigonometry,<br />
• Array<br />
Creation and<br />
Manipulation,<br />
• Character String<br />
Manipulation,<br />
• Matrix Algebra,<br />
• Missing Values,<br />
Output,<br />
• Random<br />
Num<strong>be</strong>rs,<br />
[ Table 1: Classification of the <strong>TROLL</strong> functions ]<br />
Many types<br />
such as<br />
• Numeric,<br />
• String,<br />
• Date,<br />
• Boolean,<br />
• NA<br />
(Non-available).<br />
• Probability<br />
Distributions,<br />
• Summary<br />
Statistics,<br />
• Programming,<br />
• Modeling,<br />
• File system,<br />
• External File<br />
Input/Output,<br />
• System Interface,<br />
• Timeseries and<br />
Dates.<br />
But also many<br />
organisations<br />
• Scalar,<br />
• Array,<br />
• Scalar<br />
timeseries,<br />
• Array timeseries.<br />
[ Table 2: Types and organisations attached<br />
to the DATA object in <strong>TROLL</strong> ]<br />
Functions may <strong>be</strong> built-in, or external like<br />
the optional HENDYPLAN toolbox, separately<br />
supplied to customers desiring an even higher<br />
level of efficiency.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is designed to handle very large systems;<br />
it contains all tips for the fastest computation<br />
of databases. A <strong>TROLL</strong> database is either a<br />
single file on the disk or a storage area in your<br />
memory. Binary and text formats are available.<br />
Some formats are compatible <strong>be</strong>tween UNIX<br />
and MS-WINDOWS, for a higher level of<br />
portability: in this case, it is possible to read<br />
and write in the same file, both from the MS-<br />
WINDOWS <strong>TROLL</strong> process as well as from the<br />
UNIX <strong>TROLL</strong> process.<br />
Many data objects are accepted for larger<br />
capabilities in designing applications.<br />
Besides this sophistication, object names in<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> have no limitations regarding length.<br />
Furthermore, DATA may have any num<strong>be</strong>r of<br />
values inside it, providing the memory is large<br />
enough to load it at one time. Therefore,<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> could <strong>be</strong>come a powerful and modern<br />
data warehouse for your organisation. A very<br />
efficient language will help you to navigate<br />
in the databases, and find what you are<br />
looking for, across the various database<br />
4www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
connections you have opened in your current<br />
environment.<br />
In <strong>TROLL</strong>, you can easily create lists of<br />
variables, which may <strong>be</strong> used for data<br />
manipulation, table and graph production.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong>’s permanent goal is to offer you high<br />
flexibility and productivity standards.<br />
You can easily implement information systems<br />
in <strong>TROLL</strong>. The DATA concept can host metadata,<br />
thanks to its sophisticated structure.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> offers a wide range of periodicities.<br />
Nearly all time units are available to support<br />
any kind of applications, from the macroeconomic<br />
modeling activity, mostly based on<br />
fixed periodicities, such as Annual, Quarterly,<br />
Monthly (for the most frequent ones), to applications<br />
in the financial areas, where daily,<br />
hours-minutes-seconds data may appear in<br />
databases.<br />
Through the functions, it is easy to attach date<br />
la<strong>be</strong>ls in your country’s language to any of<br />
the calendars, in order to design your output<br />
at publication quality level: just associate a<br />
string timeseries with the appropriate date<br />
specifications and send the results to an output<br />
device by linking the la<strong>be</strong>ls to the values.<br />
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Wide range of periodicities<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is efficient in any environment with time dimension<br />
• Yearly,<br />
• Quarterly,<br />
• Monthly,<br />
• Weekly (ISO 8601),<br />
• Daily and Business Daily,<br />
• Hours, Minutes, Seconds,<br />
For example, timeseries may <strong>be</strong> documented<br />
by textual information at any level.<br />
As econometrics is also a matter of keeping the<br />
same data in multiple versions, for shocks, experiments,<br />
etc, <strong>TROLL</strong>’s ACCESS and SEARCH<br />
lists offer immediate availability of DATA with<br />
same names but different contents. This refinement<br />
is also a component of efficiency. Just<br />
imagine the amount of time saved by not needing<br />
to rename variables in a model or in a set of<br />
formula for database transformation purposes.<br />
Aside from the basic periodicities defined<br />
above, <strong>TROLL</strong> has introduced the capacity<br />
to derive more date management effects by<br />
jumping observations in a basic unit of time<br />
(see the ‘X’ operator <strong>be</strong>low), or by freezing<br />
the num<strong>be</strong>r of observations in a unit of time<br />
(see the ‘P’ operator <strong>be</strong>low). Here are some<br />
examples.<br />
5<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
[ Table 3: The basic <strong>TROLL</strong> periodicities ]<br />
• Monthly X12: Annual,<br />
• Monthly X6: Semi-annual,<br />
• Monthly X3: Quarterly,<br />
• Monthly X2: Bimonthly,<br />
• Monthly P2: twice monthly,<br />
• Monthly P3: 3 times a month or every<br />
ten days,<br />
• Daily X14: bi-weekly,<br />
• Daily X7: weekly,<br />
• Business-Daily X5: weekly and the<br />
possibility to have the week start at<br />
any day of the week, regularly over the<br />
periods.<br />
• User-defined with arbitrary tick marks. [ Table 4: Some derived periodicities in <strong>TROLL</strong> ]<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Compatibility with external products<br />
Use <strong>TROLL</strong> as a node for integration<br />
Most of the compatibility with external products<br />
is carried out through the generalised <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
database interface.<br />
One of the most famous database interfaces in<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is probably the one with FAME. <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
is fully compatible with FAME. The <strong>TROLL</strong> to<br />
FAME interface allows a dynamic access to the<br />
FAME databases. Therefore there is no need to<br />
EXTRACT from FAME and then LOAD in <strong>TROLL</strong>,<br />
or vice versa. ACCESS the FAME database as<br />
you would any other <strong>TROLL</strong> database, reading<br />
or writing DATA in the linked FAME file: the information<br />
will <strong>be</strong> available straightaway during<br />
a FAME session. The Fame Remote access<br />
to Databases (FRDB) is also supported. There<br />
is no need for concern over the date compatibility,<br />
as all FAME periodicities are recognised<br />
by <strong>TROLL</strong> <strong>be</strong>cause of its extensive capabilities<br />
in periodicity designs.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> also has a very efficient interface to<br />
MS-EXCEL and provides a complete library to<br />
read/write timeseries on external sheets. The<br />
figure 2 shows the compatible formats.<br />
Therefore, <strong>TROLL</strong> is a product for the<br />
integration of your business: you can make<br />
any of the <strong>TROLL</strong> databases compatible with<br />
other kinds of applications you may have<br />
already implemented.<br />
The time dimension concept in <strong>TROLL</strong> is large<br />
enough to maintain compatibility with external<br />
products.<br />
HENDYPLAN has a wide experience in insite<br />
integration of <strong>TROLL</strong> and has never<br />
encountered technical problems in this area.<br />
ALL POSSIBLE PERIODICITIES ARE AVAILABLE<br />
Dynamic linkage<br />
• AREMOS TSD<br />
files<br />
• TSP files<br />
• FAME<br />
databases<br />
• Your own<br />
format of<br />
databases<br />
�<strong>TROLL</strong><br />
generalised<br />
database<br />
interface<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> ENGINE<br />
Import & Export<br />
• WK* family of<br />
files<br />
• CSV formats<br />
• XLS files<br />
through the<br />
interface<br />
• Any external<br />
format<br />
�<br />
Libraries of<br />
functions<br />
[ Figure 2: Various integrations of foreign formats in <strong>TROLL</strong> ]<br />
6www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
Finally <strong>TROLL</strong> offers extensive features to<br />
interconnect external products. The list<br />
presented in the figure above is not exhaustive<br />
<strong>be</strong>cause of the wide possibilities available<br />
through the <strong>TROLL</strong> Programming Language<br />
and the generalised database interface to<br />
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
connect your own formats.<br />
The modeling language and the MODEL<br />
Advanced and no limitation on size<br />
The modeling language possesses the highest<br />
level of sophistication, ideal for handling<br />
complex non-linear systems.<br />
• <strong>TROLL</strong> is already famous for handling<br />
very large systems of equations (in tens<br />
of thousands of equations and even more<br />
depending on the RAM); therefore the tools<br />
included to maintain the text of equations<br />
are also very complete: Since <strong>TROLL</strong> is an<br />
open system, the text file containing the<br />
list of equations may <strong>be</strong> seen from the<br />
MS-WINDOWS oriented <strong>TROLL</strong> text editor,<br />
but also from any editor or text processor<br />
package,<br />
Endogenous<br />
with leads<br />
Nonnormalised<br />
equations<br />
DELL<br />
(n-order<br />
difference)<br />
operator<br />
used straight<br />
on terms<br />
This flexibility is important to interconnect any<br />
kind of external products. For example, <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
recognises at least the EUROSTAT (Luxembourg)/<br />
CRONOS databases, DATASTREAM files, etc.<br />
• <strong>TROLL</strong> contains many functions to manipulate<br />
the text of equations from Macros and/or<br />
the <strong>TROLL</strong> Programming Language; here,<br />
the processing may <strong>be</strong> very sophisticated,<br />
by recognising operators, variable names,<br />
functions, etc; imagine just having, at the<br />
touch of a button, a toolbox for the complete<br />
recognition of the grammar of your system<br />
of equations.<br />
Once a model is ready as a text file, <strong>TROLL</strong> will<br />
compile its structure and mathematics. There is<br />
no need for you to differentiate a right hand side<br />
from a left hand side, and if it is more legible, a<br />
term may <strong>be</strong> designated as the left hand side.<br />
ADDSYM<br />
ENDOGENOUS ... US_C US_MPC US_MPCINV US_PGNP US_PGNPNO ... ,<br />
EXOGENOUS ... US_LAMBDA US_SIGMA ...;<br />
ADDEQ BOTTOM<br />
US_C : US_C = US_C_DI+US_C_PI ,<br />
US_MPC : US_MPC = 1/US_MPCINV ,<br />
US_MPCINV: US_MPCINV(1) = US_MPCINV - 1 - ((1 - US_SIGMA)*(US_RSR+US_PROB) - (<br />
RES_US_MPC+US_PROB))*US_MPCINV/US_S IGMA ,<br />
US_WH1 : US_WH1(1) =<br />
US_WH1*<br />
(1+US_RSR+US_ALPHA1+RES_US_WH 1+US_PROB+EXP( US_DLLF_SS) - 1)<br />
- (((1 - US_BETA)*US_GDP*US_PGNP - US_TAXH)/US_P+RES_US_WK*US_WK) ,<br />
US_PGNP: DEL(1: LOG(US_PGNPNO)) =<br />
US_LAMBDA*(US_DELTA_PI*DEL(1: LOG( US_PGNPNO(1)))<br />
+(1 - US_DELTA_PI)*DEL(1: LOG(US_PGNPNO( - 1))))<br />
+(1 - US_LAMBDA)*DEL(1: LOG(US_PGNPNO( - 1)))<br />
+US_GAMMA/100*(US_NLIN - US_UNR)/(US_UNR - US_PHI)<br />
+RES_US_PGNP ,<br />
...;<br />
[Source: MULTIMOD MARK3, (c) IMF, Washington DC, USA]<br />
7<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
[ Figure 3: The MODELING LANGUAGE ]<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
<strong>TROLL</strong> will treat the system as a linear or<br />
a non-linear one, as a set of exogenous,<br />
endogenous, or coefficient variables, equal<br />
to 0, wherever they appear. In any case<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> will automatically allocate an unknown<br />
variable to an equation: this variable may not<br />
<strong>be</strong>long to the left hand side, and a system<br />
will <strong>be</strong> solvable only if all unknown variables<br />
are associated to an equation. Tools exist to<br />
monitor the results of these associations.<br />
Attention need not <strong>be</strong> paid to the order in<br />
which you declare equations. The incidence<br />
matrix will <strong>be</strong> built automatically, detecting<br />
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Estimation<br />
Maximum integration with all other modules<br />
In <strong>TROLL</strong> standard edition<br />
simultaneous blocks. This process will help<br />
a lot to optimise the solving steps, using the<br />
smallest set of information in memory as<br />
possible.<br />
Any of these automations may <strong>be</strong> forced<br />
manually.<br />
The GENERIC module developed by<br />
HENDYPLAN can help you in managing<br />
your multi-country or multi-sector model,<br />
or any kind of model for which you need to<br />
expand equations according to certain space<br />
indexes.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> includes a wide range of single and multiple equation estimation techniques for both time<br />
series and cross-section data.<br />
Single linear equation:<br />
• Ordinary Least Square, Serial<br />
Correlated Correction<br />
(Cochrane-Orcutt and Hildreth-Lu<br />
procedures), Two<br />
Stage Least Square.<br />
• Add in a flexible way distributed<br />
lags, polynomial<br />
distributed lags.<br />
Single non-linear equation<br />
(on the coefficients):<br />
The integration of regression tasks with the<br />
rest of <strong>TROLL</strong> makes this part of the system<br />
very flexible: equations of a model may <strong>be</strong><br />
automatically re-estimated, results of any<br />
kind may <strong>be</strong> saved as other data available<br />
in other parts of <strong>TROLL</strong>, especially, the data<br />
manipulation module.<br />
• Availability of the convergence<br />
parameters of the<br />
simulation part, opening a<br />
very accurate control of the<br />
iterative process;<br />
• Add in a flexible way distributed<br />
lags, polynomial<br />
distributed lags.<br />
Non-linear simultaneous<br />
equation model:<br />
• Full Information Maximum<br />
Likelihood, 2 Stage Least<br />
Square, 3 Stage Least<br />
Square, ZELLNER.<br />
8www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
In FORECASTMOD<br />
Single linear equation:<br />
• Ordinary Least Square,<br />
variables decomposition<br />
are available,<br />
• VAR, VECM using Johansen<br />
cointegration algorithm, is<br />
programmed in such interface,<br />
• As a side effect tests are<br />
available in the flow of the<br />
computation, such as normality,<br />
heteroskedasticity,<br />
autocorrelation, etc, as well<br />
as recursive regressions<br />
for the coefficient stability<br />
analysis.<br />
FORECASTMOD is also providing<br />
all results in MS-EXCEL<br />
with tables and graphs.<br />
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
FORECASTMOD is userfriendly interface making the most of the regression tasks accessible as<br />
well from a menu-drive system and as MACRO with full automation of exercises.<br />
Simulation and forecasting<br />
Definitively the state of the art<br />
Flexibility of use:<br />
DATA<br />
input<br />
DATA<br />
output<br />
Result in<br />
spreadsheet<br />
• No limit to the num<strong>be</strong>r of equations,<br />
• Many combinations to control input<br />
data to the simulation and to involve<br />
shocks,<br />
• Integration with the rest of <strong>TROLL</strong>, i.e.<br />
availability of all data transformation<br />
functions by keeping simulation information<br />
in memory<br />
• Tools for immediate comparisons of<br />
results<br />
Control<br />
consistencies<br />
Run the<br />
process<br />
TUI manager<br />
(keep version and consistency)<br />
[ Figure 4: The FORECASTMOD principles ]<br />
Process selection<br />
DATA pretransformation<br />
ACCESS/SEARCH<br />
manager<br />
Definition of<br />
sepcifications<br />
Calibrating a model? Immediate! Just insert<br />
residual variables wherever you want, in the<br />
form you want, with the names you like. Solve<br />
the model as you run the normal dynamic version<br />
on the residuals: output will <strong>be</strong> saved in<br />
databases like any other simulation and all<br />
comparison, reporting tools will <strong>be</strong> available<br />
for them.<br />
9<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium<br />
1<br />
2
State of the art simulation methods:<br />
• Standard backward (NEWTON, relaxation),<br />
• Forward looking simulation (FAIR-<br />
TAYLOR, stack-time),<br />
• Simulate dynamic,<br />
dynamic equation by equation,<br />
static<br />
semi-static,<br />
• Losts of parameters to tune the simulation<br />
progress, more possibilities to go<br />
through non-convergence events.<br />
With <strong>TROLL</strong>, just pay attention to the system<br />
of equations and use all the integrated tools<br />
available to you. It is simply <strong>be</strong>autiful: flexible,<br />
efficient, with state of the art algorithms (see<br />
<strong>be</strong>low).<br />
All kinds of simulations are possible: static every<br />
period or ‘semi-static’, dynamic equationby-equation,<br />
dynamic on the full system.<br />
By switching from static to dynamic step-bystep,<br />
you may avoid a lot of trouble in the<br />
convergence process; therefore, you will save<br />
time.<br />
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Optimisation<br />
Advanced techniques to complement regressions and simulation<br />
Find out the stability of you model’s parameters,<br />
the <strong>be</strong>st estimators of complex systems<br />
by defining your own objective function. Optimising<br />
on a maximum log-likelihood function<br />
is possible and thanks to the <strong>TROLL</strong> Programming<br />
Language, you will control any kind of<br />
surrounding effects.<br />
Efficiency:<br />
• Intensive use of RAM for speed,<br />
• Exogenise a variable in the simulation,<br />
• Tools for model structure analysis,<br />
• Selective storage of variables in databanks,<br />
• DEFINITION to avoid preparing a database<br />
for all symbols of the system.<br />
Don’t forget <strong>TROLL</strong> also has a stochastic simulator.<br />
Even if these kinds of simulations are<br />
costly, both with regard to the volume of output<br />
stored as well as RAM requirements, the<br />
simulator is optimised enough in terms of performance<br />
to make many exercises feasible on<br />
your computer.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> also contains a famous module for advanced<br />
modellers, called LKROOTS. Its aim is<br />
to perform eigenanalysis on a linearized version<br />
of the model, for both backward and forward-looking<br />
models. Analysis of the num<strong>be</strong>r<br />
of roots and their modulus will indicate perhaps<br />
an explosive growth mode on some variables<br />
of a backward model, or, for a forward-looking<br />
model, you will immediately verify if the system<br />
follows the “Blanchard-Khan” condition.<br />
This approach is for example applied in determining<br />
a set of coefficients, where some<br />
of them are constrained. The variance/covariance<br />
matrix may <strong>be</strong> produced as an output<br />
of the process. <strong>TROLL</strong> <strong>be</strong>comes a powerful research<br />
environment.<br />
10<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Reporting system<br />
So many techniques up to publication quality<br />
Many tools exist to produce tables and graphs<br />
with <strong>TROLL</strong>. Various levels of quality also exist,<br />
from the immediate display of a table in the<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> output display, to the publication quality<br />
level in MS-EXCEL, called <strong>TROLL</strong> Advanced<br />
Reporting System.<br />
Output of<br />
commands<br />
Input of<br />
commands<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong><br />
Editor<br />
Integrated<br />
graphs<br />
A wide range of graph types<br />
is available, including line<br />
graphs, symbols, (3D) bar<br />
graphs, (3D) pie charts, area,<br />
Gantt and polar graphs. A<br />
variety of options give you<br />
control over horizontal/<br />
vertical grid, colour, border<br />
characteristics, headings,<br />
shading and scaling,<br />
including logarithmic scaling<br />
[ Figure 5: Integrated graphs in the <strong>TROLL</strong> standard interface ]<br />
and dual scale graphs.<br />
Legends are automatically<br />
created and a grid with the<br />
data value can <strong>be</strong> displayed<br />
under your graph. Any<br />
num<strong>be</strong>r of graphs can <strong>be</strong><br />
automatically generated<br />
from a macro.<br />
The production of graphs is integrated in the<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> interface, returning an MS-WINDOWS<br />
level of quality in the display, even with a <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
on UNIX process (the interface continues to <strong>be</strong><br />
an MS-WINDOWS interface).<br />
11<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
Your customised graphs may<br />
<strong>be</strong> incorporated immediately<br />
into other MS-Windows<br />
applications using copy/<br />
paste, or by exporting MS-<br />
Windows standard formats<br />
such as .BMP, .JPG formats.<br />
Furthermore, they are fully<br />
integrated in the <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
Graphical User Interface<br />
(see figure 5).<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
Designed by HENDYPLAN, the module allows<br />
both a menu-driven style of work and a<br />
MACRO computation for automated tasks. It<br />
is, for example, possible to change the style<br />
of the graphs from a windows-based user<br />
interface, but it is also possible to produce<br />
the details of the output from the MACRO<br />
level.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> also has an integrated module called<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Advanced Reporting System, which is<br />
able to draw fine reports in MS-EXCEL in an<br />
automated way,. The module allows you to<br />
prepare the style in the spreadsheet, using<br />
all features of MS-EXCEL. These styles are<br />
organised in libraries, ready to <strong>be</strong> shared<br />
across a team of <strong>TROLL</strong> users, within your organisation.<br />
You may then ask DATA to plug<br />
in the styles: the output will <strong>be</strong> a report in<br />
MS-EXCEL including all the design details<br />
you have expressed in the style sheets. This<br />
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
MULTIMOD and <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
The IMF world model immediately available for you<br />
The International Monetary Fund (Washington-USA)<br />
has <strong>be</strong>en developing the MULTI-<br />
MOD model for many years. HENDYPLAN<br />
is authorised to implement this multi-region<br />
model in your <strong>TROLL</strong> environment. This extremely<br />
valuable service is free of charge. The<br />
MULTIMOD model is one of the most famous<br />
references in rational expectations systems<br />
worldwide. Used by many modellers as a reference<br />
tool, MULTIMOD Mark III is the latest<br />
and most sophisticated version.<br />
MULTIMOD is managed by the Research<br />
Department of the IMF. Receiving MULTIMOD<br />
is also a means of receiving a database<br />
consistent with the World Economic Outlook.<br />
This database is then available for any other<br />
exercises in your environment.<br />
module is used to produce complete publications.<br />
In the end, users prefer to maintain<br />
their reports from the spreadsheet, rather<br />
than programming so many heavy routines,<br />
repeating nearly the same code with only a<br />
few differences for tuning certain details in<br />
output design.<br />
The system is mainly used by organisations<br />
to test national policies in an international<br />
environment.<br />
The equations of MULTIMOD are open<br />
to <strong>TROLL</strong> modellers, and any kind of<br />
customisation is possible.<br />
Using <strong>TROLL</strong> and MULTIMOD Mark III is the<br />
most appropriate solution for an immediate<br />
start with <strong>TROLL</strong> and rational expectations:<br />
MULTIMOD is supplied with a ready-to-use<br />
library of tools. It is a good framework <strong>be</strong>fore<br />
setting up your own modeling with rational<br />
expectations.<br />
12<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
The <strong>TROLL</strong> editions<br />
Make it scalable… always a configuration suiting your need<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is available on many platforms: MS-<br />
WINDOWS, all major UNIX brands, LINUX.<br />
With the client/server version, you can reach<br />
any of your servers in the computer environment<br />
of your organisation.<br />
Various em<strong>be</strong>dded editions are available, including<br />
the lower level all the time.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Native Edition is the complete so-called<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> library with the set of built-in functions,<br />
the modeling and programming languages, all<br />
econometric and modeling libraries, the basic<br />
reporting facilities, as well as table displays<br />
and graphs, HTML documentation. However,<br />
there is no interface with this edition, usable<br />
as a console session in WINDOWS NT or on<br />
UNIX, or on LINUX.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Standard Edition is the previous level<br />
plus the standard developer interface.<br />
Graphical User<br />
Interfaces for<br />
DATA, models,<br />
econometrics, and<br />
advanced reporting<br />
Developer Graphical<br />
User Interface<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> IS/Manager<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> in ASSISTANT mode<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> in Client Server<br />
Technology<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Standard<br />
(only standalone)<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Native<br />
(only standalone)<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> in client/server technology offers a<br />
more user-friendly interface, where inputs/<br />
outputs with the windows are 10 times faster<br />
than in the previous level. Extra libraries<br />
appear and the MS-EXCEL interface is<br />
included.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> in ASSISTANT mode offers more<br />
interfaces for a higher level of productivity:<br />
interface for DATA access, interface for<br />
management of regressions through a<br />
high level of control over the environment,<br />
interface for the <strong>TROLL</strong> Advanced Reporting<br />
System.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> IS/Manager is the most sophisticated<br />
edition, with the integration of <strong>TROLL</strong> to the<br />
Relational Database Management System interface<br />
and the integration of the metadata<br />
control. This level insures a high level of consistency<br />
in your work.<br />
13<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
[ Figure 6: the <strong>TROLL</strong> Suite ]<br />
Relational<br />
databases<br />
MS-EXCEL<br />
interface<br />
Basic <strong>TROLL</strong><br />
library<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
Support<br />
Immediate bug corrections and availability of update<br />
All editions are made available with a<br />
permanent hotline through which we will<br />
answer your questions. We immediately take<br />
into account your bug reports and correct<br />
them in the same way, according to the<br />
complexity.<br />
The <strong>TROLL</strong> network<br />
The most advanced sites in modeling activity, worldwide<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is basically used in the networks of Central<br />
Banks, statistical offices, department of finance<br />
and universities, the major economics<br />
and finance research departments in large public<br />
or private organisations. From New York and<br />
Washington, to Frankfurt and Tokyo, via London<br />
both HENDYPLAN and INTEX SOLUTIONS, Inc.<br />
deliver high quality services and permanent as-<br />
As the software is rented, we make the releases<br />
available through various updates: a new official<br />
release on CDROM, or through a patch via<br />
email. The software installation is completely<br />
controlled by a setup with extensive HTML documentation<br />
to guide your software administrator.<br />
sistance to all <strong>TROLL</strong> users. Your satisfaction is<br />
our priority.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> can <strong>be</strong> found in every continent now. The<br />
customer base is a growing community with the<br />
same common aim to develop and strengthen<br />
their organisations by means of the most sophisticated<br />
package handling the time dimension<br />
and mathematics in economics and finance.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong>: Your package for the complete<br />
integration of timeseries management<br />
• <strong>TROLL</strong>: a huge library to manipulate<br />
timeseries, multidimensional arrays, array<br />
timeseries.<br />
• <strong>TROLL</strong>: the most advanced OPEN SYSTEM;<br />
Link to <strong>TROLL</strong> any kind of external database,<br />
and any kind of external package.<br />
• <strong>TROLL</strong>: the node in your organisation for<br />
timeseries and applications management.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> is the smooth solution to dispatch<br />
the flows.<br />
• <strong>TROLL</strong>: the <strong>be</strong>st solution for your research<br />
in econometrics and modeling; you read<br />
new research results in bibliography,<br />
use the <strong>TROLL</strong> Programming Language<br />
and test them; do the same with your<br />
assumptions.<br />
Put in your data warehouse the state of the art solutions in<br />
ECONOMETRICS and MODELING<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> a unique product for your organisation<br />
14<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
Table of contents<br />
SofTwaRe/oVeRView<br />
The power of <strong>TROLL</strong> is… unlimited and portable .......................................................................................... 2<br />
Interface and programming language - User-friendly and extensible system ............................... 3<br />
Data management - Any DATA representation, <strong>be</strong>st performance in computation ..................... 4<br />
Wide range of periodicities - <strong>TROLL</strong> is efficient in any environment with time dimension ..... 5<br />
Compatibility with external products - Use <strong>TROLL</strong> as a node for integration ................................. 6<br />
The modeling language and the MODEL - Advanced and no limitation on size ......................... 7<br />
Estimation - Maximum integration with all other modules ........................................................................ 8<br />
Simulation and forecasting - Definitively the state of the art ................................................................... 9<br />
Optimisation - Advanced techniques to complement regressions and simulation .................... 10<br />
Reporting system - So many techniques up to publication quality ..................................................... 11<br />
MULTIMOD and <strong>TROLL</strong> - The IMF world model immediately available for you ......................... 12<br />
The <strong>TROLL</strong> editions - Make it scalable… always a configuration suiting your need ................ 13<br />
Support - Immediate bug corrections and availability of update ........................................................ 15<br />
The <strong>TROLL</strong> network - The most advanced sites in modeling activity, worldwide ........................ 15<br />
HENDYPLAN Headquarters ...................................................................................................................................... 16<br />
HENDYPLAN Germany ................................................................................................................................................ 16<br />
HENDYPLAN France ...................................................................................................................................................... 16<br />
HENDYPLAN Luxembourg ......................................................................................................................................... 16<br />
Tables and figures<br />
Figure 1: Architecture of the modules ................................................................................................................. 2<br />
Figure 2: Various integrations of foreign formats in <strong>TROLL</strong> .................................................................... 6<br />
Figure 3: The MODELING LANGUAGE ............................................................................................................... 7<br />
Figure 4: The FORECASTMOD principles ........................................................................................................... 9<br />
Figure 5: Integrated graphs in the <strong>TROLL</strong> standard interface ............................................................ 11<br />
Figure 6: The <strong>TROLL</strong> Suite ........................................................................................................................................ 13<br />
Table 1: Classification of the <strong>TROLL</strong> functions .............................................................................................. 4<br />
Table 2: Types and organisations attached to the DATA object in <strong>TROLL</strong> ..................................... 4<br />
Table 3: The basic <strong>TROLL</strong> periodicities .............................................................................................................. 5<br />
Table 4: Some derived periodicities in <strong>TROLL</strong> ............................................................................................... 5<br />
15<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL : +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium
How to reach Hendyplan<br />
HENDYPLAN Headquarters<br />
30 rue des Combattants<br />
Strijdersstraat 30<br />
B-1082 Brussels<br />
Tel: +32 (2) 210 1570<br />
Fax: +32 (2) 210 15 79<br />
HENDYPLAN France<br />
147-149 rue St Honoré<br />
F-75001 Paris<br />
Tel: +33 (1) 40 20 40 72<br />
Fax: +33 (1) 42 60 27 46<br />
Note about Copyrights and trademarks:<br />
HENDYPLAN Germany<br />
E.P.J. GmbH<br />
Mainzer Landstr. 27 – 31<br />
D-60329 Frankfurt<br />
Tel: +49 (69) 27 401 58 54<br />
Fax: +49 (69) 27 401 51 11<br />
HENDYPLAN Luxembourg<br />
65 Avenue de la Gare<br />
L-1611 Luxembourg<br />
Tel: +352 26 64 44 -1<br />
Fax: +352 26 64 93 79<br />
Email: info@hendyplan.com - Web: http://www.hendyplan.com/<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> - The <strong>TROLL</strong> library as descri<strong>be</strong>d in the <strong>TROLL</strong> Reference Manual - © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1978-1987 and<br />
© INTEX, 1993 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Graphical User Interface - The <strong>TROLL</strong> interface as it is supplied with session input and output windows, the integrated<br />
editor for programs and graphs. © INTEX, 1994 and © HENDYPLAN, 1994 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
HENDYPLAN TOOLBOX - A library of <strong>TROLL</strong> Programming Language functions and MACROS in various areas, including modeling<br />
and timeseries analysis. © HENDYPLAN, 1994 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
GENERIC - A language to expand strings along space indexes. Mostly used to expand a model specification.<br />
© HENDYPLAN, 1994 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Client/server - A technique of communication <strong>be</strong>tween <strong>TROLL</strong> and its interfaces. © HENDYPLAN, 1994 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> ASSISTANT - A module to help users in navigating inside the <strong>TROLL</strong> filesystem. © HENDYPLAN, 1996 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Advanced Reporting System - A system to produce advanced reports in MS-EXCEL from various kinds of templates as<br />
MS-EXCEL sheets. © HENDYPLAN, 1999 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
FORECASTMOD - Interfaces to handle econometric methods in <strong>TROLL</strong>. © HENDYPLAN, 2002 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Direct-SQL - Implementation of the connectivity to Relational DataBase Management Systems.<br />
© HENDYPLAN, 1999 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> IS/Manager - An integrated environment controlling metadata <strong>be</strong>side <strong>TROLL</strong> or FAME databases.<br />
© HENDYPLAN, 1999 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Server Administration Tool - Module to manage users and profiles through the server. © HENDYPLAN, 2001 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
<strong>TROLL</strong> Web-Model Generator and Browser - A module to create a <strong>TROLL</strong> models in a web format, plus its system to query in<br />
model components (symbols, equations, model block-ordering, etc). © HENDYPLAN, 2003 and <strong>be</strong>yond.<br />
AREMOS: Econometric, Modelling, and Data Management Software, Copyrights and TM Global Insight Inc.<br />
FAME: Fame is a fully integrated software and database management system; © SunGard Data Management Solutions.<br />
LINUX: Operating System from © Linux Online Inc.<br />
MS-EXCEL: Spreadsheets software, Microsoft® Excel, Copyright © Microsoft Corporation<br />
UNIX: from UNICS (Uniplexed Information and Computing Service)<br />
MS-Windows: Operating System, Microsoft® Windows, Copyright © Microsoft Corporation<br />
www.hendyplan.com - info@hendyplan.com - BRUSSELS - FRANkFURT - LUXEMBOURG - PARIS - TEL: +352 26 64 44<br />
All brands and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders - © HENDYPLAN, Brussels, Bemgium