pakistan’s

Regional developments, particularly in neighboring Afghanistan, will also have a profound
impact on Pakistan. While the U.S. and NATO military presence in Afghanistan has helped
maintain a degree of stability within that country, as those forces are withdrawn there are
increasing concerns over the ability of a weak Afghan government to consolidate power and
preserve state stability. Pakistan has already borne the unintended consequences of the U.S.-NATO
security mission in Afghanistan, with the spillover of al Qaeda and Afghan militant groups into
Pakistan—some of which have targeted Pakistan’s own military forces and further exacerbated
its internal instability. The prospect of renewed instability in Afghanistan, as well as “great game”
concerns over increased Indian, Russian, and Iranian influence in the country as the U.S. and
NATO presence draws down, has fueled Pakistan’s reluctance to give up its own instruments of
influence—which include subversive militant groups such as the Haqqani network.
Similarly, recent moves by the civilian governments in Pakistan and India toward improved
relations will affect dynamics in Pakistan. An anti-India foreign and military policy has long
fueled the existential rationale for entrenched stakeholders within Pakistan’s military-intelligence
establishment and motivated support for militant groups working to destabilize India. A
rapprochement between Pakistan and India would not be in the political, ideological, or economic
interests of these factions and may inadvertently contribute to increased efforts to destabilize
the civilian government in Islamabad as well as antagonize India through support for increased
extremist activities—or even military incursions—on Indian territory. As mentioned earlier, there
is already disturbing evidence pointing in this direction.
Implications of Instability
This is not the first time in Pakistan’s history that the country has been considered on the brink
of state failure. While remaining in the top twenty of Foreign Policy’s annual Fragile States Index
(called the Failed States Index through 2013), Pakistan in recent years had “improved” its ranking
from number nine in 2008 to number thirteen in 2013. Perhaps it comes as no surprise that in the
latest index released in June 2015, Pakistan is ranked at number ten, signifying an increasingly
deteriorating situation and lending credence to the policy and security concerns highlighted in
this report. The complex internal dynamics at play within Pakistan’s sociopolitical landscape
and the hedging strategies that various influential stakeholders have been able to exercise in
engaging with and balancing those dynamics have contributed to the status quo of a stable, albeit
precarious, state. Critical questions remain, however. How long can Pakistan maintain this status
quo? And of particular concern for the United States and Pakistan’s neighbors, how long before the
schisms plaguing the internal political landscape begin to adversely affect the country’s external
geopolitical environment?
The resurgence of an Islamist influence in Pakistani politics has implications not just for the
United States and India but also for Pakistan’s other neighbors. The dominance of right-wing Sunni
Muslim groups, several of which have been implicated in sectarian violence against Pakistan’s Shia
population (as well as other minority groups), should be of concern to neighboring Iran. China
too is already unhappy with suspected ties between extremist groups in Pakistan and Muslim
separatist movements in China’s northwestern regions. In addition, the Pakistani Taliban have
sent fighters to support rebels in Syria and made threats against the regime in Myanmar, while
Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan had called for international intervention against the Bangladesh
government’s decision to ban Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh from political participation and
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SPECIAL REPORT u FEBRUARY 2016