AN ECONOMIC EXPLANATION OF THE NATIONALIZATION OF ELECTORAL POLITICS
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As can be seen from Figure 3, in both Austria and Portugal there is a positive<br />
relationship between the output gap and the electoral support of the two main parties in<br />
the last 12 and 14 elections respectively. The better the economic performance, the<br />
better their election results. However, the correlation is greater in the third-wave<br />
democracy, Portugal, than in the more traditional democracy, Austria. The coefficient of<br />
correlation is 0.60 (statistically significant at the 0.05 level) in the former and 0.19 (not<br />
statistically significant) in the latter.<br />
Figure 3: Two main parties' electoral support and economic performance in Austria and Portugal<br />
Austria<br />
Portugal<br />
50 60 70 80 90<br />
50 60 70 80<br />
-.02 0 .02 .04<br />
Outputgap<br />
-.1 -.05 0 .05<br />
Outputgap<br />
Two main parties' support (%)<br />
Fitted values<br />
Two main parties' support (%)<br />
Fitted values<br />
The relationship between party size and the degree of nationalization (according<br />
to Bochsler's Standardized and Weighted Party System Nationalization Score) in the<br />
two countries is displayed in Figure 4. Our argument is again strongly supported. In<br />
both Austria and Portugal, the two main parties – the SPO and the OV, and the PS and<br />
the PSD/PPD respectively – are much more nationalized than small parties. In Austria,<br />
the average nationalization scores are 0.91 for the SPO, 0.89 for the OV, 0.84 for the<br />
Greens, 0.83 for the FPO, 0.81 for the KPO, and 0.82 for the LIF. In Portugal, the
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