Vision 2050

A move toward more sustainable energy is desirable
forests and water resources. “Tributary dams alone are expected to
reduce total fish stocks by 10%–26% by 2030 and dams proposed
for the mainstream of the lower Mekong basin could cause a
further 60%–70% loss of fish catch.” (Orr et al., 2012).
Climate change is already a reality
Even if fossil fuel supplies were infinite, we would have another
compelling reason to switch to renewable energy: climate change.
For the Greater Mekong, climate change compounds existing
and projected threats, affecting the region’s people, biodiversity
and natural resources. This is likely to have cascading effects:
for example, water scarcity leading to reduced agricultural
productivity, leading to food scarcity, unemployment and poverty.
Among lower Mekong Basin countries, Laos and Cambodia have
been identified as the most vulnerable in part because of their
limited capacity to cope with climate related risks (Yusuf and
Francisco, 2009).
By 2050, the average
temperature in Laos
will increase by up to
3°C, exceeding 44°C in
southern Laos’ provinces
during extreme years
and resulting in severe
draught episodes by the
end of the dry season
(USAID)
According to the USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to
Climate Change Project, by 2050, the average temperature in
Laos will increase by up to 3°C, exceeding 44°C in southern Laos’
provinces during extreme years and resulting in severe draught
episodes by the end of the dry season (March, April). This will
seriously jeopardise electricity production from hydropower
dams as little water will remain in their reservoirs at the end of a
prolonged and harsher dry season (USAID MARCC, 2014).
Already the revenues from the Nam Theun 2 hydropower dam
for 2015 have not met the expectations as the water level in the
reservoir dropped more than one meter due to lack of rainfall
during the year 2015. This resulted in a loss of about USD 2 million
in revenue for the government, as it reached only USD 12.7 million
in 2015 compared to a USD 14.6 million during the previous year
and a USD 14.9 million in 2012 (Vientiane Times, 2016a).
At the same time and contradictorily, global yearly rainfalls will
increase in Laos (up to +335 mm/year (+18%) for the province of
Khammouan), but concentrated during the rainy season months
(May to October). This will result in potential risks of overload for
hydropower installations, flash floods from precipitations of more
than 100 mm/day during extreme rainfalls) and loss of potential
energy storage as this excess of water cannot be stored in reservoirs
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