Vision 2050

The Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES) scenario in a nutshell
THE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
SCENARIO (SES):
SCENARIO IN A NUTSHELL
SES
Sustainable Energy Scenario
In 2050, electricity demand will be 8 to
9 times higher than today in Laos. It is,
however, about 21 per cent lower than
what would happen in BAU. Although
population and economy continue to rise
as predicted, ambitious energy-saving
measures allow us to do more with less.
Industry uses more recycled and energyefficient
materials, buildings are constructed or upgraded to need
minimal energy for heating and cooling, and there is a shift to
more efficient forms of transport. If exports are included, in 2050
electricity production will be about 16 times larger than today in
the SES. This is actually 28% higher than in the BAU. Laos can
be an important electricity export country based on sustainable
sources, like wind and solar power.
All people have access to electricity by 2030, through grid
connected or off-grid solutions. Wind, solar photovoltaic (PV),
concentrating solar power (CSP), biomass, and hydropower are the
main sources of electricity, with some geothermal electricity being
produced as well. Some coal remains in the system (2%).
These coal plants are, by then, old plants that will be replaced a bit
later than 2050, unless economics dictate them to be mothballed
before, due to their high electricity prices compared to other,
renewable technologies.
Because supplies of wind and solar photovoltaic power vary,
“smart” electricity grids have been developed to store and deliver
energy more efficiently, with pump and battery storage. 48 per cent
of the electricity comes from variable sources (solar PV, wind, run
of the river hydro) while the rest comes from less variable sources,
such as biomass, CSP with storage, geothermal and hydropower
dams. Seasonality still affects hydro and biomass, though.
Due to its environmental and social impacts, the contribution of
hydropower is limited. This means that minimal large hydro is
added to the mix beyond what is already being built or in final
development plans today. Micro-hydro is included in the run
of the river plants, representing in total about 6 per cent of the
generation mix.
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