Vision 2050

A move toward more sustainable energy is desirable
$90
Price history of silicone PV cells in $ per watt
$80
$70
$76.67
$ per watt
$60
$50
$ 40
$ 30
$ 20
$ 10
$$$
$0.36
1977 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Figure 1 Price of silicon PV cells (Bloomberg New Energy Finance and
pv.energytrend.com, no date)
Solar photovoltaic (PV)
power has seen its cost
plunge, making the
technology extremely
competitive. The latest
examples come from
Dubai, where a 260
MW plant will sell solar
electricity at 0.058 US
dollar per kilowatt-hour
(USD/kWh). This is due
to learning curves and
cost reductions across the
supply chain, including PV
cell costs (Figure 1).
16
More recently in Austin, Texas, project proposals were offering solar
electricity at less than 0.04 USD/kWh with support from a federal
income tax credit. These cost reductions have led Austin Energy to
believe that large scale solar PV prices may come down to below 0.02
USD/kWh in 2020 provided the income tax credit continues. Without
the income tax credit, costs could still be lower than 0.04 USD/kWh
(Figure 2).
In the New Energy Outlook 2015 report, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance said wind is already the cheapest new form of energy
capacity in Europe, Australia and Brazil. By 2026, it will be the “leastcost
option almost universally”. In many countries, individual wind
projects are consistently delivering electricity for 0.05 USD/kWh
without financial support. These solar and wind costs compare to a
range of USD 0.045 to 0.14/kWh or even higher for fossil-fuel power
plants (IRENA, 2015b). In fact, this year in India, solar PV could be
on par with coal, with major ramifications for coal projects such as
those in the Galilee Basin6; Deutsche Bank researchers even expect
6 Latest reports are that Adani, the Indian investor in Australia’s huge Galilee Basin coal mine project, has put
the project on hold due to current low commodity prices (Reneweconomy, 2016)