The Larkin & Moran Brothers

24 Irish American News “WE’VE ALWAYS BEEN GREEN!” August 2016
arket Predictions
Trying to determine how Wall
treet will behave next week,
ext month, or next year is difcult.
To do it with consistency is
mpossible. To predict the nearerm
direction of the market, you
eed to predict upcoming earnings
seasons, central bank policy
moves, and the direction of both
the domestic and global economy
to name a few. And if you can do
that, you might as well forecast the
future of the world.
Figuring out what lies ahead
for equities is often a guessing
game. Looking back, some very
bold predictions have been made
for the market – some way off the
mark. More than a decade ago, a
few analysts boldly forecast that
the Dow Jones Industrial Average
would climb to astonishing heights
(Dow 30,000) – heights the index
has yet to reach today. The first was
investment manager Harry Dent,
who, to his credit, had written a
book called Great Boom Ahead
predicting an amazing run for both
the economy and the market starting
in the mid-1990s. (Indeed, the
S&P 500 averaged a yearly gain of
almost 29% during 1995-99.) Dent’s
1999 bestseller, The Roaring 2000s,
posited that the Dow would top
30,000, perhaps 35,000 in the near
future as maturing baby boomers
poured money into equities.
He was wrong. What happened
instead was the so-called “lost decade,”
in which the broad market
basically did not advance. As for
the Dow 30, it ended the 2000s at
11,497.12.
Harry Dent changed his outlook
over time. In 2011, he told the
Tampa Bay Times that the blue
chips would plunge to 3,300 by
2014 or earlier. The Dow finished
2014 above 17,800. For the record,
Dent now sees a “bubble collapse”
starting in 2016 or 2017, soon
breeding “widespread civil unrest”
in America.
In 1993, Forbes magazine published
their cover story “Bearish on
America” where Morgan Stanley
analyst Barton Biggs urged investors
to dump their domestic stocks
in light of the economic policies
favored by a new presidential administration.
That ended up being
bad advice since the compound
return of the S&P 500 over the next
seven years was north of 18%.
Perhaps the most famous
doomsday call of all time occurred
in 1979 when Business Week published
a cover story entitled “The
Death of Equities.” Wall Street
was emerging from its second
awful bear market in less than
seven years and the high inflation
environment would cripple stocks.
The article cited a widespread loss
Enjoy Long Grove Irish Days September 3-5
All eyes will be smiling when
the historic shopping district of
Long Grove presents Irish Days, a
celebration of Irish culture, music,
food and drink September 3-5
from 11am-7:30pm Sat. and Sun., &
11am-6pm on Mon. Admission &
parking in municipal lots are free.
A Gaelic Tent in Fountain Square
will promote awareness of Irish
language and genealogy, and
ongoing entertainment by top Chicago
area Irish musicians, singers
and dancers. Performers include
Rory Makem, Shannon
Rovers Bagpipe Band,
Dooley Brothers, Mc-
Nulty Irish Dancers,
Gavin Coyle, Chancey
Brothers, Joe Cullen, and
Larkin Brothers
Representatives from
the Irish American Heritage
center will be on
hand to discuss Irish
cultural opportunities
on the Northside of Chicago.
All dogs are Irish at
Irish Days, and any dog
can enter at the Dog
Competition area by the
Long Grove Info Center. Each day,
a panel of Children judges will
choose a King, Queen, Prince and
Princess.
Harrington’s Catering and Deli
will sell corned beef sandwiches,
fish and chips, and other traditional
Irish foods. In addition there will
be an area selling Guinness Stout
and other brews to quench your
thirst. A Wee Ones Area will host
storytelling, crafts, facepainting,
and games for kids. A contest will
be held daily in Fountain Square
of faith among investors, asserting
that “the death of equities is a near
permanent condition.” At the time
the article was printed the Dow
was at 875. Ten years later the Dow
was north of 2600, twenty years
later it was north of 10,900, and
today were close to 18,000.
The point here is to take the
words of the predictors with a
grain of salt. Some have been right,
but many have been wrong. Too
many factors are involved in stock
prices for anyone to accurately predict
what happens 6 or 12 months
from now. The best advice you can
follow is to properly align your
portfolio with your risk tolerance
and goals and stop trying to predict
market movements.
John is a CERTIFIED FINAN-
CIAL PLANNER and President
of Daly Investment Management,
LLC a Registered Investment
Advisor specializing in financial
planning and wealth management.
930 E. Northwest Hwy Mount
Prospect, IL 60056 Phone: 224-347-
2623 www.dalyinvestment.com
to choose the “Best Men’s Legs in
a Kilt.” Contestant’s should wear
their best kilt and preregister the
morning of the event.
A townwide leprechaun hunt
will take place daily as the popular
“Where’s Paddy?” competition
returns. Long Grove shops will
feature Irish days specials as the
town rolls out the green this Labor
Day weekend.
irishboutique.com/irishday or
call Paddy’s on the Square at (847)
634-0339.
Artist, Ed Cox, who does most of the beautiful artwork that is
adorning the walls of the Irish American Heritage Center with his
granddaughter, Maura, who is now helping him!