ePaper_2nd Edition_October 12, 2016

Opinion 21
Will a hard Brexit take
the great out of Great Britain?
So much for taking back control
DT
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2016
• Azeem Ibrahim
Theresa May has finally
spelled out the future
of the UK in her party
conference speech. It will
be hard Brexit. And it will be a
disaster.
The Article 50 process will
be triggered next year and
the government’s negotiating
position is that immigration will
be prioritised over continued
membership of the European
Single Market.
Of course, the official story
is that curbs on immigration
are the non-negotiable red line
for the government, while they
will also try to get the best trade
relationship with the European
Bloc.
But, in practice, this means that
Britain will be unceremoniously
kicked out of the Single Market
before the end of 2019, and will
have to resume trade with all of
the rest of the world on WTO rules.
Fantasists like Liam Fox and
Boris Johnson will continue to
insist that we will be able to get
favourable trading conditions with
Europe, but their nonsense will be
exposed before long.
For one, nobody in Europe has
any reason to reward Britain for
shunning the European project.
How anyone can look at the
appointment of Guy Verhofstadt,
the federalist former prime
minister of Belgium, as Europe’s
lead Brexit negotiator and think
that France and Germany are
lining up to give the UK a good
deal is baffling.
And the other aspect of this is
that, even if Germany, Holland,
France, and many other countries
would want to give the UK a good
deal, this is not enough. When
the European Union negotiates
such deals, for a trade treaty to
come in effect, it must be ratified
by the parliaments of all member
countries.
Terms of the deed
Back in January, when Boris
Johnson was touting the Canada
deal as a model of what Britain
can achieve in Brexit negotiations,
what he conveniently glossed over
is that the terms of the deal had
been agreed back in 2014.
It was held up for two years
until this year because the Czech
Republic, Romania, and Bulgaria
refused to ratify the deal until
Canada agreed to give their
citizens visa-free access to the
country.
The notion that these, and
other Eastern European countries,
would agree to give Britain a good
trade deal when the UK is leaving
the Bloc specifically so it can
discriminate against their citizens
is, frankly, insane.
The short of it, then, is that,
with her Sunday speech, Theresa
May has effectively destroyed any
prospect of a preferential trade
arrangement with Europe. The
UK will have the same level of
access to the European market
that Ethiopia has. Egypt will have
an easier time trading into Europe
than British exporters.
Even if Germany,
Holland, France,
and many other
countries would
want to give the
UK a good deal,
this is not enough.
When the European
Union negotiates
such deals, for a
trade treaty to come
in effect, it must
be ratified by the
parliaments of all
member countries
And the really fun part is that the
UK loses not only access to the
markets of the EU and the EEA
themselves, but also to the market
of 50+ other countries that we had
access to as members of the Single
Market.
Any takers?
Will there be takers for free
trade deals with the newly
Theresa May’s ‘hard Brexit’ is setting up to be a disaster
“independent” UK? Sure. The
Chinese must already be licking
their lips at the prospects. As are
many of the largest and most
predatory American corporations.
And Putin’s henchmen are
probably already tabulating their
spreadsheets.
Theresa May has just made
this country fully vulnerable to
the caprices of the titans of global
trade.
Next time, neither she nor her
successors will have the luxury
to put a project like Hinkley on
hold for a reassessment for a few
months. Nor will the Chinese
ambassador need to express loud
objections.
Next time, the government will
be told exactly what to do, where
and when. Like Hong Kong in
REUTERS
reverse. So much for taking back
control. •
Azeem Ibrahim is Senior Fellow at
the Centre for Global Policy, Fellow
at Mansfield College, University of
Oxford and Research Professor at the
Strategic Studies Institute, US Army
War College. This article previously
appeared in Al Arabiya News. He tweets
@AzeemIbrahim.