MILITARY BUDGETS in INDIA and PAKISTAN
Military-Budgets-India-Pakistan-Trajectories-Priorities-Risks-Oct2016.pdf
Military-Budgets-India-Pakistan-Trajectories-Priorities-Risks-Oct2016.pdf
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Military Budgets <strong>in</strong> India <strong>and</strong> Pakistan: Trajectories, Priorities, <strong>and</strong> Risks<br />
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<br />
The strategic competition between India <strong>and</strong> Pakistan is evolv<strong>in</strong>g, with India outpac<strong>in</strong>g Pakistan<br />
<strong>in</strong> conventional capabilities while Pakistan seeks to compete with nuclear capabilities. India’s<br />
economy is eight times larger than Pakistan’s, <strong>and</strong> may be 15 times larger <strong>in</strong> 2030. Absent<br />
reconciliation between India <strong>and</strong> Pakistan, how each state converts economic power <strong>in</strong>to military<br />
strength will reflect longst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g grievances. India’s advantages are dim<strong>in</strong>ished by an ad hoc<br />
approach to defense budget management <strong>and</strong> other constra<strong>in</strong>ts, but long term trends po<strong>in</strong>t to<br />
Indian ascendance. Pakistan cannot match India conventionally <strong>in</strong> the long term, <strong>and</strong> any attempt<br />
to do so will exhaust its economy. Respond<strong>in</strong>g to adverse defense spend<strong>in</strong>g trends with <strong>in</strong>creased<br />
reliance on nuclear weapons, especially short-range weapons, may be a cost effective approach,<br />
but it is likely to dim<strong>in</strong>ish Pakistan’s national security.<br />
India’s Defense Budget<br />
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India’s defense budget is grow<strong>in</strong>g at an impressive clip, but ris<strong>in</strong>g personnel costs are<br />
crowd<strong>in</strong>g out resources for modernization. S<strong>in</strong>ce the mid-2000s, an <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g share of<br />
India’s defense budget has been dedicated to pensions <strong>and</strong> personnel costs, while capital<br />
outlays – <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> weapons systems – are decreas<strong>in</strong>g relative to the rest of the<br />
budget.<br />
Decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g capital budgets will delay military modernization efforts <strong>and</strong> reduce<br />
projections of India’s advantages over Pakistan, particularly with respect to air power.<br />
India’s plan to purchase French Rafale aircraft, for example, has been delayed <strong>and</strong><br />
downsized <strong>in</strong> part due to decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g capital budgets for aircraft.<br />
Recent trends <strong>in</strong> Indian defense spend<strong>in</strong>g – decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g capital <strong>in</strong>vestments relative to<br />
personnel costs – are likely to cont<strong>in</strong>ue for the foreseeable future. New Delhi has<br />
committed to <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> military salaries <strong>and</strong> pensions which leave less room for<br />
modernization. Mean<strong>in</strong>gful budgetary reform <strong>in</strong> the defense m<strong>in</strong>istry is unlikely to<br />
materialize <strong>in</strong> the near-future, because implement<strong>in</strong>g reform with<strong>in</strong> India’s defense<br />
bureaucracy has been so challeng<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Pakistan’s Defense Budget<br />
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Pakistan spends more on defense than its official estimates suggest. Pakistan leaves out<br />
important components of the defense budget, <strong>and</strong> there is reason to believe that offbudget<br />
f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g supplements official spend<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>ter-service distribution of the defense budget reflects the preem<strong>in</strong>ence of the<br />
Pakistan Army. The Army receives nearly half of the country’s defense budget, <strong>and</strong> is by<br />
far the largest service <strong>in</strong> terms of troop strength. The Army has overspent its allocated<br />
defense budget every year s<strong>in</strong>ce 2009. The practice of exceed<strong>in</strong>g its allocated budget is <strong>in</strong><br />
stark contrast to India, where services rout<strong>in</strong>ely underspend their budgets.<br />
Rawalp<strong>in</strong>di has already begun to receive less military assistance from the United States,<br />
as US troop strength <strong>in</strong> Afghanistan has decl<strong>in</strong>ed. US military aid accounted for 21<br />
percent of Pakistan’s defense budget between 2002-2015, <strong>and</strong> now accounts for less than<br />
11 percent. Pakistan will rely on Ch<strong>in</strong>a for major conventional platforms go<strong>in</strong>g forward,<br />
but Beij<strong>in</strong>g’s support <strong>and</strong> subsidies are likely to be less than what Wash<strong>in</strong>gton provided.<br />
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