PEACE

From 2000 to 2009 the MENA economy grew at an
average yearly rate of 2.98 per cent. While it is not possible
to fully separate out other economic trends like the impact
on oil prices during this period, violence and conflict has
significantly contributed to a negative economic climate
leading to an average regional contraction of 0.2 per cent
between 2009 and 2014.
A more ambitious goal in the research focused on
measuring the cost of violence, is to determine the optimal
level of violence containment spending. The size of such
spending will depend on the level of violence in a society.
From a purely economic perspective, after a certain point
there are decreasing returns on violence containment
expenditure. Therefore, finding the optimal level of
violence containment spending can aid the allocation of
scarce economic resources.
FIGURE 1 MENA GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH COMPARED TO GLOBAL
GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH, 2000-2014 7
Increased violence and conflict in the MENA region coincided with a fall in
GDP growth beneath the global average from 2011 onwards.
0.06
PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH (ANNUAL %)
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
Global GDP
MENA GDP
-0.04
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: IMF
“
The relationship between conflict and economic
performance is not one way, lower economic
performance combined with social and political
fragmentation in a vulnerable context can contribute
to the deterioration of peace.
THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PEACE 2016 | Conceptual Background 8